Divisional Playoffs Leadup

FAH1223 · Post #1 » by **FAH1223** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:48 pm

coolhandluke121 · Post #2 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:15 pm

If you assume the following odds of winning in the first round, taken from playoffstatus.com and rounded slightly to make convenient fractions so I don't have to use a calculator, then you can calculate the probability of each opponent for the Packers in round 2.

Win probability:
Bucs: 4/5
Cowboys: 7/10
Rams: 5/8

Results:
Rams: 140/400 (35%)
Eagles: 1/5 (20%)
49ers: 12/50 (24%)
Cardinals: 84/400 (21%)

I actually think those win probabilities might be a bit high. I don't think you typically end up with 4 or 5 losses if you're supposed to be able to beat other winning teams 70-80% of the time. I know homefield advantage is a factor, but unless it's a question of extreme elements that one team is not used to, which doesn't apply to any first-round games, there's room for debate there.

MissKhriddleton · Post #3 » by **MissKhriddleton** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:18 pm

I could really use a Saturday game.

LUKE23 · Post #4 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:35 pm

Think Niners have a shot against Cowboys, Tampa will destroy Philly. Packers got the best possible schedule alignment with the 4/5 seed playing a Monday West Coast game.

Post #5 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:33 pm

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Dennis Reynolds · Post #6 » by **Dennis Reynolds** » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:13 am

MickeyDavis wrote:

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Hope to God this is nothing more than MLF not trying to hurt anyone's feelings cause if Jaire is healthy and in shape it shouldn't even be a question.

For as good as Stokes has been for a rookie, he's still just a rookie and he's gonna get targeted hard, especially in big moments. Cousins was throwing up some prayers when Stokes was guarding Jefferson and not only all of them were answered, Stokes couldn't even locate the ball on some of those throws which could lead to some costly penalties in the playoffs. Hopkins was also torching him in the limited snaps he played against us so I hope they keep Stokes as far away from opposing star receivers as possible. He also has stone hands and while it shouldn't, the reputation matters in this league so the refs are gonna respect him far less than Douglas and especially Jaire.

Again, I understand Stokes is just a rookie and while I might be coming off like a hater and I'm just saying our opponents certainly won't feel sorry for him and let him off the hook because he lacks experience.

TroyD92 · Post #7 » by **TroyD92** » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:45 am

Dennis Reynolds wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:

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Hope to God this is nothing more than MLF not trying to hurt anyone's feelings cause if Jaire is healthy and in shape it shouldn't even be a question.

For as good as Stokes has been for a rookie, he's still just a rookie and he's gonna get targeted hard, especially in big moments. Cousins was throwing up some prayers when Stokes was guarding Jefferson and not only all of them were answered, Stokes couldn't even locate the ball on some of those throws which could lead to some costly penalties in the playoffs. Hopkins was also torching him in the limited snaps he played against us so I hope they keep Stokes as far away from opposing star receivers as possible. He also has stone hands and while it shouldn't, the reputation matters in this league so the refs are gonna respect him far less than Douglas and especially Jaire.

Again, I understand Stokes is just a rookie and while I might be coming off like a hater and I'm just saying our opponents certainly won't feel sorry for him and let him off the hook because he lacks experience.

Think Stokes gets beat a lot less than Douglas does

Dennis Reynolds · Post #8 » by **Dennis Reynolds** » Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:27 am

TroyD92 wrote:
Dennis Reynolds wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:

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Hope to God this is nothing more than MLF not trying to hurt anyone's feelings cause if Jaire is healthy and in shape it shouldn't even be a question.

For as good as Stokes has been for a rookie, he's still just a rookie and he's gonna get targeted hard, especially in big moments. Cousins was throwing up some prayers when Stokes was guarding Jefferson and not only all of them were answered, Stokes couldn't even locate the ball on some of those throws which could lead to some costly penalties in the playoffs. Hopkins was also torching him in the limited snaps he played against us so I hope they keep Stokes as far away from opposing star receivers as possible. He also has stone hands and while it shouldn't, the reputation matters in this league so the refs are gonna respect him far less than Douglas and especially Jaire.

Again, I understand Stokes is just a rookie and while I might be coming off like a hater and I'm just saying our opponents certainly won't feel sorry for him and let him off the hook because he lacks experience.

Think Stokes gets beat a lot less than Douglas does

Still got a lot to learn so I can't say it doesn't happen but I really don't notice it much. The only egregious example I can think of was at Vikings when he could have easily gotten an interception but got lost and Thielen got the Vikings in the field goal range late in the game.

While I can't say I'm high on PFF judging by their mid to late season QB grades I came across here and on twitter, I also don't know what other stats to look for. :dontknow:

Spoiler:

Post #9 » by **MickeyDavis** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:23 pm

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Post #10 » by **MickeyDavis** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:24 pm

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Ron Swanson · Post #11 » by **Ron Swanson** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:47 pm

A front-4 of Gary/Preston/Kenny/Zadarius pinning their ears back on passing downs?

LikeABosh · Post #12 » by **LikeABosh** » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:00 am

Ron Swanson wrote:A front-4 of Gary/Preston/Kenny/Zadarius pinning their ears back on passing downs?

That lineup was pretty good even when Gary was a rookie

Matches Malone · Post #13 » by **Matches Malone** » Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:20 pm

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