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Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1

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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1761 » by Hallstar » Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:35 pm

greg4012 wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
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Full context of quote:

I think he’s the best big in the league behind Nikola Jokic because of his athletic versatility, his passing, he can play big or small, and guard on the perimeter,” one NBA general manager told HoopsHype. “I’m thinking about the playoffs, not the regular season. He can beat Rudy Gobert down the floor and guard Joel Embiid. He can match up with Giannis Antetokounmpo if the [Milwaukee] Bucks go small. He’s good at preventing guys from getting to their spots and taking comfortable shots. I don’t know what else you want from your five?”


Bam's skillset is uniquely valuable with how modern NBA playoffs unfold (as long as he doesn't go full gunshy with his shooting again).

Bam is the best Giannis defender in the league, but he gets bullied by the Embiid and Jokic's of the league. AD did the same in the Finals. He doesn't try to impose his will on offense if he's getting bullied down the other end.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1762 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:56 pm

Hallstar wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Read on Twitter


Full context of quote:

I think he’s the best big in the league behind Nikola Jokic because of his athletic versatility, his passing, he can play big or small, and guard on the perimeter,” one NBA general manager told HoopsHype. “I’m thinking about the playoffs, not the regular season. He can beat Rudy Gobert down the floor and guard Joel Embiid. He can match up with Giannis Antetokounmpo if the [Milwaukee] Bucks go small. He’s good at preventing guys from getting to their spots and taking comfortable shots. I don’t know what else you want from your five?”


Bam's skillset is uniquely valuable with how modern NBA playoffs unfold (as long as he doesn't go full gunshy with his shooting again).

Bam is the best Giannis defender in the league, but he gets bullied by the Embiid and Jokic's of the league. AD did the same in the Finals. He doesn't try to impose his will on offense if he's getting bullied down the other end.


To be fair Bam was injured pretty bad in the finals and AD was playing out of his ass as we’ve seen in his performance since then outside the bubble. Bam outplayed AD head to head this season

I’d bet the matchup numbers back that Bam doesn’t get dominated by Embiid.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1763 » by AirP. » Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:31 pm

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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1764 » by AirP. » Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:06 pm

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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1765 » by RexBoyWonder » Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:44 pm

AirP. wrote:
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i like this kid
Chalm Downs wrote:his nickname is boywonder ffs
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1766 » by eddieheatfan » Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:53 pm

RexBoyWonder wrote:
AirP. wrote:
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i like this kid
m2 has potential to be a combo guard/spot up 3 point shooter. he could play the point at times since he knows how pass but i think he needs to work more on that part of his game too
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1767 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:15 pm

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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1768 » by MiamiSun » Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:21 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
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If he comes off the bench the rest of the year, he could compete with Tyler for 6th Man of the year.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1769 » by Heat_Down_Under » Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:25 pm

al bondiga wrote:
carnageta wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Read on Twitter


Bam is great but he's behind Jokic and Embiid for sure. Perhaps even behind guys like KAT and AD (although he's more of a pf). Top 5 C for sure though.

bam is not a center.

So of course not he's not one of the best centers in the league... it is by definition

bam is one of the best big men behind gianis Jokic AD kat and maybe a few more...bam might be top 10 big men, might (no homerisms just objectivity)


Exactly this… he’s a PF so to be fair you can compare AD and giannis as PF/C as both can play that position. I’d take a healthy AD over bam and noones taking bam over giannis.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1770 » by Heat_Down_Under » Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:26 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Heat_Down_Under wrote:
carnageta wrote:
Bam is great but he's behind Jokic and Embiid for sure. Perhaps even behind guys like KAT and AD (although he's more of a pf). Top 5 C for sure though.


Yeah no way bam is second best C in the league. Maybe top 5 at best and that’s being generous


Name 5 centers that are better than him.

He’s averaging 19-10-3 in a season he’s seeming to struggle a little and he’s the best defender in the world. 1 of maybe 5 players in the league that can guard 1 through 5


As per my previous post

Jokic
Embiid
Giannis
AD
KAT
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1771 » by Bhut Jolokia » Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:11 pm

I would take Jokic and Embiid over Bam at center right now. But that’s about it. Bam has been playing mostly center and he could very well stay there his whole career. I would put Bam, Gobert and KAT in the next group of centers. I personally rather have Bam from that group.

1. Jokic (MVP level)
2. Embiid (MVP level)

3. Bam
4. Gobert
5. KAT

6. Allen
7. Ayton
8. Valanciunas
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1772 » by BenoUdrihFTL » Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:56 pm

AirP. wrote:
BenoUdrihFTL wrote:Player A:
22/3/3 on 53% TS (96 TS+) with 42/36/83 shooting splits, 103 ORTG, .035 WS/48, -1.9 BPM

Player B:
17/4/3 on 51% TS (94 TS+) with 42/40/79 shooting splits, 103 ORTG, .076 WS/48, -0.4 BPM

Player C:
21/5/4 on 54% TS (96 TS+) with 43/39/87 shooting splits, 103 ORTG, .060 WS/48, -0.5 BPM


Most probably realize that Player C is Herro this year after his first actual offseason in the NBA, so what I consider to be essentially the equivalent of a 2nd year under normal circumstances. Player A is 2nd year Devin Booker, Player B is 2nd year Bradley Beal. All of their advanced stats are bad, but that's the nature of coming into the NBA with this player profile of volume scoring 2 guard. It's a very difficult role to come in and be efficient at early on. Beal's #s look the best here by a slight margin over Herro -- in no small part because he wasn't tasked with the volume of Herro or Booker -- but it still took Beal until year 5 to finally break out as a future allstar; he had yet to eclipse a 103 ORTG, .085 WS/48 or 0.3 BPM prior to that

These scoring 2s need a few years to get acclimated because scoring efficiently is the single most difficult thing to do in the NBA. Now if your argument for moving Herro is to better fit Yimmy/Lowry's timeline then that's reasonable, however you better damn well make sure you're getting a legit 2022 allstar caliber player in return who's ready to step in and push you into top 3 title favorite territory. Not that I'm saying they're available as trade targets, but guys still in their prime like what Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday were for Milwaukee last season. I'd even settle for a guy on the cusp of his prime like Jaylen Brown, but giving up on Herro would require this level of return in order for this irrelevant Heat fan to be on board


Wait... you're comparing starters who have to go against the best players of the other team to a guy who comes off the bench and sees more bench talent on the court?

Image

If you look at his starter numbers his ORTG drops down to 95 and his DRTG goes up to 114, for a -19, off the bench he's 106 ORTG and a 110 DRTG for only a -4. If you look at his TS% oh my... .472 as a starter and .565 as a reserve (which is solid).

If he were starting each game and was anywhere near his current .472 TS% as a starter, out of 187 qualified players there would only be 7 players below his TS%.

This seems pretty disingenuous. You're talking about a 10 game sample size of Herro as a starter and pretending that he doesn't play vs opponents' starters when he gets his 31+ MPG off the bench

Regarding his 10 starts, how many of those games were Jimmy and/or Bam and/or Lowry out? If you follow the theme of my post, more usage and primacy of role = lower efficiency early on with this kind of player profile. Herro's SEASON usage is 29.9%, and in his games as a starter he was often literally the only guy on the team who could create his own shot -- which is why he started -- because one of our max players Jimmy has missed 43% of the season so far and the other Bam has missed 55%. Everyone else on the team has a usage under 20%

Meanwhile Booker had a usage of 28.6% with teammates Eric Bledsoe at 28.1% and Brandon Knight at 25.0%. Beal at 24.3% had John Wall at 27.4% and Nene at 24.0%. Bledsoe, Knight and Nene all missed games that season, but unfortunately we can't isolate Booker and Beal's TS% those games, however I'ma go ahead and guarantee it wasn't pretty since their season TSs were 51 and 54 despite lower usage than Herro
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1773 » by carnageta » Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:56 pm

I don't think I'm ready to put Bam above a guy like KAT.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1774 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 pm

Heat_Down_Under wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Heat_Down_Under wrote:
Yeah no way bam is second best C in the league. Maybe top 5 at best and that’s being generous


Name 5 centers that are better than him.

He’s averaging 19-10-3 in a season he’s seeming to struggle a little and he’s the best defender in the world. 1 of maybe 5 players in the league that can guard 1 through 5


As per my previous post

Jokic
Embiid
Giannis
AD
KAT


Giannis and AD aren’t centers. Bam starts and plays center full time, neither Giannis or AD do. KAT isn’t better, dude is a dog **** defender and can’t even make the playoffs. He’s empty stats like cousins was.

You all are grasping for straws trying to find ways to knock down Bam. The great basketball minds see how great and how much of a freak he is as you see by what the GM said.

You all are mad at Bam for averaging an efficient 19-10-3 while being the best defender in the world at 24 years old because he’s not averaging 25-12. Don’t worry it’s going to happen soon.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1775 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:58 pm

Bhut Jolokia wrote:I would take Jokic and Embiid over Bam at center right now. But that’s about it. Bam has been playing mostly center and he could very well stay there his whole career. I would put Bam, Gobert and KAT in the next group of centers. I would personally rather have Bam from that group.

1. Jokic (MVP level)
2. Embiid (MVP level)

3. Bam
4. Gobert
5. KAT

6. Allen
7. Ayton
8. Valanciunas


This.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1776 » by Heat_Down_Under » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:46 am

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Heat_Down_Under wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Name 5 centers that are better than him.

He’s averaging 19-10-3 in a season he’s seeming to struggle a little and he’s the best defender in the world. 1 of maybe 5 players in the league that can guard 1 through 5


As per my previous post

Jokic
Embiid
Giannis
AD
KAT


Giannis and AD aren’t centers. Bam starts and plays center full time, neither Giannis or AD do. KAT isn’t better, dude is a dog **** defender and can’t even make the playoffs. He’s empty stats like cousins was.

You all are grasping for straws trying to find ways to knock down Bam. The great basketball minds see how great and how much of a freak he is as you see by what the GM said.

You all are mad at Bam for averaging an efficient 19-10-3 while being the best defender in the world at 24 years old because he’s not averaging 25-12. Don’t worry it’s going to happen soon.


The only one mad is you. No one is knocking bam. Just taking off my heat goggles and being honest. Bam is a PF playing out of position.. so what if he started as centre for the heat or plays there most of the time. If he’s a PF/C why can’t he be compared to AD or Giannis?

If KAT was on this team (if the butler thing didn’t happen) we would be a better team overall. If you think bam on the timberwolves would make them a play off team your cappin
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1777 » by Heat_Down_Under » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:55 am

carnageta wrote:I don't think I'm ready to put Bam above a guy like KAT.


Thank you
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1778 » by AirP. » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:28 am

BenoUdrihFTL wrote:
Spoiler:
AirP. wrote:
BenoUdrihFTL wrote:Player A:
22/3/3 on 53% TS (96 TS+) with 42/36/83 shooting splits, 103 ORTG, .035 WS/48, -1.9 BPM

Player B:
17/4/3 on 51% TS (94 TS+) with 42/40/79 shooting splits, 103 ORTG, .076 WS/48, -0.4 BPM

Player C:
21/5/4 on 54% TS (96 TS+) with 43/39/87 shooting splits, 103 ORTG, .060 WS/48, -0.5 BPM


Most probably realize that Player C is Herro this year after his first actual offseason in the NBA, so what I consider to be essentially the equivalent of a 2nd year under normal circumstances. Player A is 2nd year Devin Booker, Player B is 2nd year Bradley Beal. All of their advanced stats are bad, but that's the nature of coming into the NBA with this player profile of volume scoring 2 guard. It's a very difficult role to come in and be efficient at early on. Beal's #s look the best here by a slight margin over Herro -- in no small part because he wasn't tasked with the volume of Herro or Booker -- but it still took Beal until year 5 to finally break out as a future allstar; he had yet to eclipse a 103 ORTG, .085 WS/48 or 0.3 BPM prior to that

These scoring 2s need a few years to get acclimated because scoring efficiently is the single most difficult thing to do in the NBA. Now if your argument for moving Herro is to better fit Yimmy/Lowry's timeline then that's reasonable, however you better damn well make sure you're getting a legit 2022 allstar caliber player in return who's ready to step in and push you into top 3 title favorite territory. Not that I'm saying they're available as trade targets, but guys still in their prime like what Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday were for Milwaukee last season. I'd even settle for a guy on the cusp of his prime like Jaylen Brown, but giving up on Herro would require this level of return in order for this irrelevant Heat fan to be on board


Wait... you're comparing starters who have to go against the best players of the other team to a guy who comes off the bench and sees more bench talent on the court?

Image

If you look at his starter numbers his ORTG drops down to 95 and his DRTG goes up to 114, for a -19, off the bench he's 106 ORTG and a 110 DRTG for only a -4. If you look at his TS% oh my... .472 as a starter and .565 as a reserve (which is solid).

If he were starting each game and was anywhere near his current .472 TS% as a starter, out of 187 qualified players there would only be 7 players below his TS%.

This seems pretty disingenuous. You're talking about a 10 game sample size of Herro as a starter and pretending that he doesn't play vs opponents' starters when he gets his 31+ MPG off the bench

It's simple logic to understand he doesn't play against starters as much as another starter would. The percentage of playing against lesser players is greater as a reserve.

Regarding his 10 starts, how many of those games were Jimmy and/or Bam and/or Lowry out? If you follow the theme of my post, more usage and primacy of role = lower efficiency early on with this kind of player profile. Herro's SEASON usage is 29.9%, and in his games as a starter he was often literally the only guy on the team who could create his own shot -- which is why he started -- because one of our max players Jimmy has missed 43% of the season so far and the other Bam has missed 55%. Everyone else on the team has a usage under 20%

Meanwhile Booker had a usage of 28.6% with teammates Eric Bledsoe at 28.1% and Brandon Knight at 25.0%. Beal at 24.3% had John Wall at 27.4% and Nene at 24.0%. Bledsoe, Knight and Nene all missed games that season, but unfortunately we can't isolate Booker and Beal's TS% those games, however I'ma go ahead and guarantee it wasn't pretty since their season TSs were 51 and 54 despite lower usage than Herro

First of all, Herro is playing for a great coach while Booker was playing for Earl Watson who was fired and brought in Jay Triano for the rest of the season and Beal played for Randy Wittman.

Secondly, we need to look at what Booker was playing with in his 3rd season, he had so many quality teammates they won 21 games that year. You're arguing that Herro is missing Bam and Butler and have no issues with Booker starting with players like M.Chriss, a 35 year old T.Chandler, D.Bender, J.Jackson, T.Ulis, a young TJ Warren, E.Bledsoe and so on... that team was horrible and much WORSE than Miam's with 2 starters missing

BTW... I'm not a fan of Booker or Beal, I do recognize that they are good scorers much like Herro but I don't really think they're all that big of difference makers

What's odd is that I've complained about the same things for Herro for 2 years now but I also said in the prediction thread this year it wouldn't surprise me if he averaged 20+ if he was coming off the bench looking for his own shot and low and behold that's happening. You and others may find this hard to believe but you can identify problems with a player and still respect other parts of their game, Herro seems to have put in a TON of work in, he's very skillful offensively but I see problems so why is that so horrible? People just ignore Herro's turnovers and bad passes that lead to turnovers or bad possessions, those hurt teams greatly but since his offense is fun to watch people just ignore those.

So, with all this being said, do you want Miami giving Herro the max this season since he's eligible for the extension, Miami gave Bam a year earlier then they had to, it seems you're saying you want them to do that since you are comparing him to max contract scorers in their 3rd seasons.
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1779 » by BenoUdrihFTL » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:59 am

AirP. wrote:
BenoUdrihFTL wrote:
Spoiler:
AirP. wrote:
Wait... you're comparing starters who have to go against the best players of the other team to a guy who comes off the bench and sees more bench talent on the court?

Image

If you look at his starter numbers his ORTG drops down to 95 and his DRTG goes up to 114, for a -19, off the bench he's 106 ORTG and a 110 DRTG for only a -4. If you look at his TS% oh my... .472 as a starter and .565 as a reserve (which is solid).

If he were starting each game and was anywhere near his current .472 TS% as a starter, out of 187 qualified players there would only be 7 players below his TS%.

This seems pretty disingenuous. You're talking about a 10 game sample size of Herro as a starter and pretending that he doesn't play vs opponents' starters when he gets his 31+ MPG off the bench

It's simple logic to understand he doesn't play against starters as much as another starter would. The percentage of playing against lesser players is greater as a reserve.

Regarding his 10 starts, how many of those games were Jimmy and/or Bam and/or Lowry out? If you follow the theme of my post, more usage and primacy of role = lower efficiency early on with this kind of player profile. Herro's SEASON usage is 29.9%, and in his games as a starter he was often literally the only guy on the team who could create his own shot -- which is why he started -- because one of our max players Jimmy has missed 43% of the season so far and the other Bam has missed 55%. Everyone else on the team has a usage under 20%

Meanwhile Booker had a usage of 28.6% with teammates Eric Bledsoe at 28.1% and Brandon Knight at 25.0%. Beal at 24.3% had John Wall at 27.4% and Nene at 24.0%. Bledsoe, Knight and Nene all missed games that season, but unfortunately we can't isolate Booker and Beal's TS% those games, however I'ma go ahead and guarantee it wasn't pretty since their season TSs were 51 and 54 despite lower usage than Herro

First of all, Herro is playing for a great coach while Booker was playing for Earl Watson who was fired and brought in Jay Triano for the rest of the season and Beal played for Randy Wittman.

Secondly, we need to look at what Booker was playing with in his 3rd season, he had so many quality teammates they won 21 games that year. You're arguing that Herro is missing Bam and Butler and have no issues with Booker starting with players like M.Chriss, a 35 year old T.Chandler, D.Bender, J.Jackson, T.Ulis, a young TJ Warren, E.Bledsoe and so on... that team was horrible and much WORSE than Miam's with 2 starters missing

BTW... I'm not a fan of Booker or Beal, I do recognize that they are good scorers much like Herro but I don't really think they're all that big of difference makers

What's odd is that I've complained about the same things for Herro for 2 years now but I also said in the prediction thread this year it wouldn't surprise me if he averaged 20+ if he was coming off the bench looking for his own shot and low and behold that's happening. You and others may find this hard to believe but you can identify problems with a player and still respect other parts of their game, Herro seems to have put in a TON of work in, he's very skillful offensively but I see problems so why is that so horrible? People just ignore Herro's turnovers and bad passes that lead to turnovers or bad possessions, those hurt teams greatly but since his offense is fun to watch people just ignore those.

So, with all this being said, do you want Miami giving Herro the max this season since he's eligible for the extension, Miami gave Bam a year earlier then they had to, it seems you're saying you want them to do that since you are comparing him to max contract scorers in their 3rd seasons.

I've given you the #s, if you want to reach for rationalizations to dismiss them then that's your prerogative

And no I don't like the idea of maxing anyone early. I was against doing it with Bam and I'm against it with Herro. That said, I'm not privy to knowing whether there'd be any consequences of not doing so in terms of the relationship between player and team
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Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1 

Post#1780 » by Heat_Down_Under » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:25 am

I guess with the Herro situation it all comes down to if dipo comes back and performs like his old self. If so he needs to get paid aswell. Bit of a predicament.

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