2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[Marrrcuss]

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

So let me take all of our 'role players' etc out of it (which you can't really because they are part of the full picture) and just look at our ideal starting 5: -

Lopez - played 1 game, missed 42
Giannis - played 34, missed 9
Jrue - played 33, missed 10
Middleton - played 31, missed 12
DiVincenzo - played 4, missed 39

Giannis has played the most, and even he has missed 21% of Bucks games this season.

My point being that the Bucks are a much better team than their record suggests.

Everyone wants to name a champ before January is over.

[shoresy69]

Here is my attempt at quantifying "gravity". I'll call it True Shooting Influence. Heavily inspired by this 538 article written back in 2017. Credit to NBA Wowy/Add More Funds for the data.

This looks at teammate TS% when the team's MVP candidate is on and off the court. The TS% differential is calculated for each teammate and then weighted based on how many true shooting attempts they've taken. I'm still fine-tuning the weightings but the results come out nearly the same regardless of method. The goal is one simple number that expresses a player's influence on his teammates' scoring efficiency.

I've only calculated it for a handful of stars but here are the results for this season so far:

1. Stephen Curry +5.40
2. LeBron James +4.24
3. Kevin Durant +3.42
4. Nikola Jokic +3.30
5. Joel Embiid +3.25
6. Giannis Ant. +3.23
7. Chris Paul +2.78

[mediocrityrules]

Here is my attempt at quantifying "gravity". I'll call it True Shooting Influence. Heavily inspired by this 538 article written back in 2017. Credit to NBA Wowy/Add More Funds for the data.

This looks at teammate TS% when the team's MVP candidate is on and off the court. The TS% differential is calculated for each teammate and then weighted based on how many true shooting attempts they've taken. I'm still fine-tuning the weightings but the results come out nearly the same regardless of method. The goal is one simple number that expresses a player's influence on his teammates' scoring efficiency.

I've only calculated it for a handful of stars but here are the results for this season so far:

1. Stephen Curry +5.40
2. LeBron James +4.24
3. Kevin Durant +3.42
4. Nikola Jokic +3.30
5. Joel Embiid +3.25
6. Giannis Ant. +3.23
7. Chris Paul +2.78

Would gravity assume that more open shots are being taken by other team mates? Does that need to be part of the sum? someone can brick an open shot, but the /gravity' is what created it. I suppose i'm trying to get an idea of how open a star makes his teammates because of the extra attention he gets. There's a TS value to be had, but it would also be interesting to understand how much a star with 'gravity' opens up his team mates (without having to have them make the shot - which i know is ultimately the goal. An example may be Jokic having thee players collapse on him 5 times in a quarter, and each time he was able to kick it to the corner for an easy open 3 shot. But the guy there was not a great shooter and only converted one attempt of the 5. If the guy was a better shooter and converted 3-4 of the 5, does this affect the 'gravity' weighting as you are looking to work it out?)

Not sure what i'm going for here, but i still feel like something is missing that only looks at gravity if the rest of the team is having a good shooting night, and not necessarily understanding the actual effect that they are having on opening their team mates up more, regardless of if that shot is dropping).

TL:DR - i have no idea what i'm talking about

[shoresy69]

Here is my attempt at quantifying "gravity". I'll call it True Shooting Influence. Heavily inspired by this 538 article written back in 2017. Credit to NBA Wowy/Add More Funds for the data.

This looks at teammate TS% when the team's MVP candidate is on and off the court. The TS% differential is calculated for each teammate and then weighted based on how many true shooting attempts they've taken. I'm still fine-tuning the weightings but the results come out nearly the same regardless of method. The goal is one simple number that expresses a player's influence on his teammates' scoring efficiency.

I've only calculated it for a handful of stars but here are the results for this season so far:

1. Stephen Curry +5.40
2. LeBron James +4.24
3. Kevin Durant +3.42
4. Nikola Jokic +3.30
5. Joel Embiid +3.25
6. Giannis Ant. +3.23
7. Chris Paul +2.78

Would gravity assume that more open shots are being taken by other team mates? Does that need to be part of the sum? someone can brick an open shot, but the /gravity' is what created it. I suppose i'm trying to get an idea of how open a star makes his teammates because of the extra attention he gets. There's a TS value to be had, but it would also be interesting to understand how much a star with 'gravity' opens up his team mates (without having to have them make the shot - which i know is ultimately the goal. An example may be Jokic having thee players collapse on him 5 times in a quarter, and each time he was able to kick it to the corner for an easy open 3 shot. But the guy there was not a great shooter and only converted one attempt of the 5. If the guy was a better shooter and converted 3-4 of the 5, does this affect the 'gravity' weighting as you are looking to work it out?)

Not sure what i'm going for here, but i still feel like something is missing that only looks at gravity if the rest of the team is having a good shooting night, and not necessarily understanding the actual effect that they are having on opening their team mates up more, regardless of if that shot is dropping).

TL:DR - i have no idea what i'm talking about

Unfortunately there is nothing qualitative about this calculation, it's only measuring how much better a player's teammates shoot when he's on the floor rather than off. But it is a pretty solid sample size for each player, I don't think it can be attributed too much to hot/cold shooting nights as those will even out over 30+ games.

If the teammate Jokic is passing to has been bricking threes all season it probably won't hurt Jokic's calculation because I doubt that teammate is magically draining shots when Jokic is OFF the floor. The calculation is essentially teammate's TS% when Jokic is on the floor minus teammate's TS% when Jokic is off the floor, then weighted with the rest of the teammates.

My hypothesis, based on watching games, for why Curry and LeBron have higher metrics is that the attention they draw seems to create more shots at the rim for their teammates. These are more valuable shots than the perimeter shots big guys like Jokic/Embiid/Giannis create with their inside presence. I haven't watched enough Nets games to form an opinion on Durant's impact.

[mediocrityrules]

Here is my attempt at quantifying "gravity". I'll call it True Shooting Influence. Heavily inspired by this 538 article written back in 2017. Credit to NBA Wowy/Add More Funds for the data.

This looks at teammate TS% when the team's MVP candidate is on and off the court. The TS% differential is calculated for each teammate and then weighted based on how many true shooting attempts they've taken. I'm still fine-tuning the weightings but the results come out nearly the same regardless of method. The goal is one simple number that expresses a player's influence on his teammates' scoring efficiency.

I've only calculated it for a handful of stars but here are the results for this season so far:

1. Stephen Curry +5.40
2. LeBron James +4.24
3. Kevin Durant +3.42
4. Nikola Jokic +3.30
5. Joel Embiid +3.25
6. Giannis Ant. +3.23
7. Chris Paul +2.78

Would gravity assume that more open shots are being taken by other team mates? Does that need to be part of the sum? someone can brick an open shot, but the /gravity' is what created it. I suppose i'm trying to get an idea of how open a star makes his teammates because of the extra attention he gets. There's a TS value to be had, but it would also be interesting to understand how much a star with 'gravity' opens up his team mates (without having to have them make the shot - which i know is ultimately the goal. An example may be Jokic having thee players collapse on him 5 times in a quarter, and each time he was able to kick it to the corner for an easy open 3 shot. But the guy there was not a great shooter and only converted one attempt of the 5. If the guy was a better shooter and converted 3-4 of the 5, does this affect the 'gravity' weighting as you are looking to work it out?)

Not sure what i'm going for here, but i still feel like something is missing that only looks at gravity if the rest of the team is having a good shooting night, and not necessarily understanding the actual effect that they are having on opening their team mates up more, regardless of if that shot is dropping).

TL:DR - i have no idea what i'm talking about

Unfortunately there is nothing qualitative about this calculation, it's only measuring how much better a player's teammates shoot when he's on the floor rather than off. But it is a pretty solid sample size for each player, I don't think it can be attributed too much to hot/cold shooting nights as those will even out over 30+ games.

If the teammate Jokic is passing to has been bricking threes all season it probably won't hurt Jokic's calculation because I doubt that teammate is magically draining shots when Jokic is OFF the floor. The calculation is essentially teammate's TS% when Jokic is on the floor minus teammate's TS% when Jokic is off the floor, then weighted with the rest of the teammates.

My hypothesis, based on watching games, for why Curry and LeBron have higher metrics is that the attention they draw seems to create more shots at the rim for their teammates. These are more valuable shots than the perimeter shots big guys like Jokic/Embiid/Giannis create with their inside presence. I haven't watched enough Nets games to form an opinion on Durant's impact.

Now that's an interesting hypothesis. Gravity is not created equal, in that gravity 'created' at the perimeter is greater than gravity 'created' at the rim, because of where that opens up the floor.

[shoresy69]

Now that's an interesting hypothesis. Gravity is not created equal, in that gravity 'created' at the perimeter is greater than gravity 'created' at the rim, because of where that opens up the floor.

That's my thinking, especially since other people have ran similar calculations before and it's usually Curry and LeBron leading. It's not black and white though because those big guys do create plenty of layups for teammates, just like LeBron/Steph create plenty of threes. But on average I think it's more valuable to draw the defense away from the rim than it is to draw them away from the three-point line.

[DutchManDanFan]

Now that's an interesting hypothesis. Gravity is not created equal, in that gravity 'created' at the perimeter is greater than gravity 'created' at the rim, because of where that opens up the floor.

That's my thinking, especially since other people have ran similar calculations before and it's usually Curry and LeBron leading. It's not black and white though because those big guys do create plenty of layups for teammates, just like LeBron/Steph create plenty of threes. But on average I think it's more valuable to draw the defense away from the rim than it is to draw them away from the three-point line.

So it's one metric that favours certain players, like other metrics favour other players (like PER for bigs).
These stats give indications of valuability, but never tell the whole story. Above all valuability must lead to wins, because that's what it's all about. If team record is around .500 you can be the best player but not MVP, imo.
If team records are close or the best teams doesn't have a clear MVP you look at these kind of stats. But there will be subjectivity involved because the voters value different stats differently or have biases for or against certain players.

For me now top 4 is Steph, KD, Giannis, Embiid.
LeBron and Jokic enter the discussion if they can get 50 wins (or close). Others (Ja, DeRozan/LaVine) are doing great but won't win.

[Hussien Fatal]

Joel has scored exactly 31 points in each of his last 5 games lol kinda crazy really, the Sixers took a loss today but I think he actually strengthened his MVP rank by completing his 8th consecutive game with 30 points or more.

[BoatsNZones]

Joel has scored exactly 31 points in each of his last 5 games lol kinda crazy really, the Sixers took a loss today but I think he actually strengthened his MVP rank by completing his 8th consecutive game with 30 points or more.

In a home loss as a team leading -16 with just 6 boards and 3 assists to his 7 turnovers. The points are nice but no, it definitely does not help matters for him. I don't think he has any realistic MVP narrative as is. Vegas has him as +3000, which is very telling. It's Curry followed by Durant and Giannis a bit behind as is. Nobody else has a viable narrative right now.

[Infinite Llamas]

For me now top 4 is Steph, KD, Giannis, Embiid.
LeBron and Jokic enter the discussion if they can get 50 wins (or close). Others (Ja, DeRozan/LaVine) are doing great but won't win.

And if the Sixers or Bucks don’t win 50? Do we throw their names out of the discussion?

So many rules and conditions apply to some guys and not others and it really doesn’t make sense to me.

[Dupp]

And if the Sixers or Bucks don’t win 50? Do we throw their names out of the discussion?

Yes

So many rules and conditions apply to some guys and not others

untrue

[TwoStarz]

How is KD eligible now that Harden himself is playing at a MVP level? Never mind that Durants advance stats never paint him as the mvp anyways. Never mind that they also have Kyrie back now for road games.

I just fail to understand Durants MVP case with the struggling Nets relative roster strength and expectations. Seems odd

[eyeatoma]

How is KD eligible now that Harden himself is playing at a MVP level? Never mind that Durants advance stats never paint him as the mvp anyways. Never mind that they also have Kyrie back now for road games.

I just fail to understand Durants MVP case with the struggling Nets relative roster strength and expectations. Seems odd

I agree with this take.

In my Opinion the players with the highest chances of winning are Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, and LeBron. Steph needs to turn it on fast if he wants to get back into contention.

KD has too much help, so does DeMar.

[KGtabake]

Things are simple. If the warriors get the #1 seed in the West, it will be Curry. Easily.
If they don't and they finish 2nd, the Bucks will have to secure the #3 seed in the East. If they do, it will come down to stats. There, Giannis has the lead.

Agreed about KD's hurt chances since he's playing with Harden.
Also agreed that if the Nuggets or the Sixers make a run and secure a top3 finish in their conferences, both Jokic and Embiid will have strong cases(especially Jokic since his advanced are insane).
LeBron is a monster but the record won't improve much.
DeRozan has been great but not MVP great.
And they won't give it to Morant.

On a side note, i trust everyone understands now why Gobert is a top5 candidate. The Jazz are taking serious beating without him. Time to acknowledge his qualities and stop embarrassing yourselves by discrediting him.

[Hussien Fatal]

Joel has scored exactly 31 points in each of his last 5 games lol kinda crazy really, the Sixers took a loss today but I think he actually strengthened his MVP rank by completing his 8th consecutive game with 30 points or more.

In a home loss as a team leading -16 with just 6 boards and 3 assists to his 7 turnovers. The points are nice but no, it definitely does not help matters for him. I don't think he has any realistic MVP narrative as is. Vegas has him as +3000, which is very telling. It's Curry followed by Durant and Giannis a bit behind as is. Nobody else has a viable narrative right now.

Yeah I disagree. He has scored over 30, 8 consecutive games going 7-1 during that stretch last night he had 7 turnovers yes but he shot 10-17 for 31 points. I don’t think this game negatively affected his chance at mvp.

[MindState]

This years MVP race is so weird.

All the deserving candidates have bad team records and all the teams with good records dont have deserving candidates.

[eyeatoma]

Joel has scored exactly 31 points in each of his last 5 games lol kinda crazy really, the Sixers took a loss today but I think he actually strengthened his MVP rank by completing his 8th consecutive game with 30 points or more.

In a home loss as a team leading -16 with just 6 boards and 3 assists to his 7 turnovers. The points are nice but no, it definitely does not help matters for him. I don't think he has any realistic MVP narrative as is. Vegas has him as +3000, which is very telling. It's Curry followed by Durant and Giannis a bit behind as is. Nobody else has a viable narrative right now.

Yeah I disagree. He has scored over 30, 8 consecutive games going 7-1 during that stretch last night he had 7 turnovers yes but he shot 10-17 for 31 points. I don’t think this game negatively affected his chance at mvp.

This is true, if JOkic can have some terrible games (the one where the Clippers can comeback from down 25), then Jo has some leeway as well.

[Hello Brooklyn]

How is KD eligible now that Harden himself is playing at a MVP level? Never mind that Durants advance stats never paint him as the mvp anyways. Never mind that they also have Kyrie back now for road games.

I just fail to understand Durants MVP case with the struggling Nets relative roster strength and expectations. Seems odd

Harden has been playing better but has also had his share of bad games. Also the whole rest of the roster has been injured or bad for a while.

Kyrie has been ok and only played 3 games. Had 9 points last game.

KD is leading the league in scoring while probably being the Nets best defender.

Who exactly is playing better?

Curry is having his worst statistical season in a long time.

The Bucks are somehow worse record wise than the Nets. They have also not performed up to expectations.

If the Bucks pass the Nets record wise then its probably Giannis's to lose. Until then whats the case?

[hisairness]

How is KD eligible now that Harden himself is playing at a MVP level? Never mind that Durants advance stats never paint him as the mvp anyways. Never mind that they also have Kyrie back now for road games.

I just fail to understand Durants MVP case with the struggling Nets relative roster strength and expectations. Seems odd

I agree with this take.

In my Opinion the players with the highest chances of winning are Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, and LeBron. Steph needs to turn it on fast if he wants to get back into contention.

KD has too much help, so does DeMar.

Yeah, KD has had so much help that he's second in the league in minutes per game and has played entire halfs multiple times, simply because the Nets can't effort to sit him down. Harden finally has couple good games after this boards has proclaimed him washed up so far, Kyrie has played 3 road games and all of as sudden KD has too much help lol.

[Statlanta]

This year I rather focus on individual performances over team performances. So many teams have been ravaged by COVID-19. You can't control your teammates or your wins. But you can control your own production.