2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[eyeatoma]

My ballot right now is:
1. Giannis
2. KD
3. Steph
4. Jokic
5. Rudy Gobert (controversial i know)

I feel bad for Jokic, if his team was healthy he would be challenging for #1. His plus minus is insane and is almost singlehandedly carrying that team.

Even more controversial that EMbiid isn't in your top 5 lol.

Yea his case is similar to Jokic but Jokic has better numbers.

Sixers have a better record than the Nuggets and Embiid has been the best player in the NBA the last month.

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[Cubbies2120]

Also, he wasn't the frontrunner - LeBron was going into the all star break (according to all betting odds) at twice as likely as Embiid to win it.

Lol, wrong again.

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/31038407/joel-embiid-overtakes-lebron-james-favorite-win-mvp

Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid overtook Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James last week and is now the consensus favorite to win the regular-season MVP award at sportsbooks around the nation. Embiid is listed at +200 to win MVP at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, followed by James at +225.


This was just not Ceaser's he was the betting favorite across all major betting sites heading into all-star break.

Yes, he did slow down after coming back from injury, but at that point the damage was done, and yes, Jokic did regain the lead. But that's not what I said was it, I said at the All-star break he was the favorite. If he hadn't missed time, he probably wouldn't have lost his rhythm, and would have had enough of a cushion to have a few bad games, which he might not have.

I was looking at this:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nba/updated-2021-mvp-odds-best-bets-not-named-lebron-james/

That was two days before the break.

Embiid certainly had a lot of the fans betting it (20% of all bets), but the big money (sharps) were on LeBron.

I guess what this shows is that NBA MVP betting can be swung by 1 game sample size. Embiid went from 2nd place (+300 vs +175) to surpassing LeBron after 1 game played on March 3rd. Wild.

In any case, Embiid has been relatively healthy this year and *should* be an improved version of last year, so if he deserved it last year he should have no issues walking away with the award this year. He's currently +4000, so if you toss $100 on it your boy winning it will get you a nice chunk of change ($4k)

Personally, I'm throwing my money on Giannis now, because he's a top 3 candidate and has balled out against the other MVP candidates.

[eyeatoma]

Also, he wasn't the frontrunner - LeBron was going into the all star break (according to all betting odds) at twice as likely as Embiid to win it.

Lol, wrong again.

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/31038407/joel-embiid-overtakes-lebron-james-favorite-win-mvp

Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid overtook Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James last week and is now the consensus favorite to win the regular-season MVP award at sportsbooks around the nation. Embiid is listed at +200 to win MVP at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, followed by James at +225.


This was just not Ceaser's he was the betting favorite across all major betting sites heading into all-star break.

Yes, he did slow down after coming back from injury, but at that point the damage was done, and yes, Jokic did regain the lead. But that's not what I said was it, I said at the All-star break he was the favorite. If he hadn't missed time, he probably wouldn't have lost his rhythm, and would have had enough of a cushion to have a few bad games, which he might not have.

I was looking at this:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nba/updated-2021-mvp-odds-best-bets-not-named-lebron-james/

That was two days before the break.

Embiid certainly had a lot of the fans betting it (20% of all bets), but the big money (sharps) were on LeBron.

I guess what this shows is that NBA MVP betting can be swung by 1 game sample size. Embiid went from 2nd place (+300 vs +175) to surpassing LeBron after 1 game played on March 3rd. Wild.

In any case, Embiid has been relatively healthy this year and *should* be an improved version of last year, so if he deserved it last year he should have no issues walking away with the award this year. He's currently +4000, so if you toss $100 on it your boy winning it will get you a nice chunk of change ($4k)

Personally, I'm throwing my money on Giannis now, because he's a top 3 candidate and has balled out against the other MVP candidates.

Haha fair enough.

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[drdrG]

Even more controversial that EMbiid isn't in your top 5 lol.

Yea his case is similar to Jokic but Jokic has better numbers.

Sixers have a better record than the Nuggets and Embiid has been the best player in the NBA the last month.

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Embiid has been spectacular but it's hard to make a definitive case that he's been better than Giannis over the last 10 games since GA came back from H&S protocols

[eyeatoma]

Yea his case is similar to Jokic but Jokic has better numbers.

Sixers have a better record than the Nuggets and Embiid has been the best player in the NBA the last month.

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Embiid has been spectacular but it's hard to make a definitive case that he's been better than Giannis over the last 10 games since GA came back from H&S protocols

Giannis has been balling as well. Everyone is really closely bunched up. I truly believe ultimately it'll come down to record, unless someone significantly falls off on production or gets hurt.

[GSP]

Demar as an MVP player was always a myth. As injuries pile up he can't carry the team like the real Mvp level players. He did good when Caruso was out but now with Javonte, Ddj out and now Zach hurt whatever "case" he had is about to be erased quick. He prolly won't even finish top 10 in voting

[eyeatoma]

Don't look now but Sixers are 3.5 games out of first. Seems to me that it's more likely that they make a move with Simmons at the deadline. As I said before, if Sixers can sneak into the top 3, Embiid has a very strong shot. LaVine just got hurt (hope it's not bad, I really like watching him play), but Bulls could fall back to earth now. Nets are neutered with Kyrie only playing road games.

[mediocrityrules]

Don't look now but Sixers are 3.5 games out of first. Seems to me that it's more likely that they make a move with Simmons at the deadline. As I said before, if Sixers can sneak into the top 3, Embiid has a very strong shot. LaVine just got hurt (hope it's not bad, I really like watching him play), but Bulls could fall back to earth now. Nets are neutered with Kyrie only playing road games.

I think it ends up being more of a head-to-head between Giannis and Embiid if Embiid keeps this level of play going. Both teams probably top 3 by end of the season, so it comes down to how they're both playing, and just as importantly, how they go against each other. (in no particular order, i think BKN, MLK and PHL are the top 3 east teams at seasons end, to no one's surprise coming into this season).

[_NoMas]

Don't look now but Sixers are 3.5 games out of first. Seems to me that it's more likely that they make a move with Simmons at the deadline. As I said before, if Sixers can sneak into the top 3, Embiid has a very strong shot. LaVine just got hurt (hope it's not bad, I really like watching him play), but Bulls could fall back to earth now. Nets are neutered with Kyrie only playing road games.

I think it ends up being more of a head-to-head between Giannis and Embiid if Embiid keeps this level of play going. Both teams probably top 3 by end of the season, so it comes down to how they're both playing, and just as importantly, how they go against each other. (in no particular order, i think BKN, MLK and PHL are the top 3 east teams at seasons end, to no one's surprise coming into this season).

Don’t forget the Heat, who will finally be back to full strength when Bam returns on Monday. I think they’re a lock for top 3

[Packbuckman]

Don't look now but Sixers are 3.5 games out of first. Seems to me that it's more likely that they make a move with Simmons at the deadline. As I said before, if Sixers can sneak into the top 3, Embiid has a very strong shot. LaVine just got hurt (hope it's not bad, I really like watching him play), but Bulls could fall back to earth now. Nets are neutered with Kyrie only playing road games.

I think it ends up being more of a head-to-head between Giannis and Embiid if Embiid keeps this level of play going. Both teams probably top 3 by end of the season, so it comes down to how they're both playing, and just as importantly, how they go against each other. (in no particular order, i think BKN, MLK and PHL are the top 3 east teams at seasons end, to no one's surprise coming into this season).

Don’t forget the Heat, who will finally be back to full strength when Bam returns on Monday. I think they’re a lock for top 3

Miami definitely in that top 4 with bucks nets 76ers.
When we get jrue back soon and even with without Lopez the bucks will be top 2 in East 16-3 when big 3 play. Thats if Bud and bucks care to be he’s got his players playing less minutes than a team like the nets.

[_NoMas]

I think it ends up being more of a head-to-head between Giannis and Embiid if Embiid keeps this level of play going. Both teams probably top 3 by end of the season, so it comes down to how they're both playing, and just as importantly, how they go against each other. (in no particular order, i think BKN, MLK and PHL are the top 3 east teams at seasons end, to no one's surprise coming into this season).

Don’t forget the Heat, who will finally be back to full strength when Bam returns on Monday. I think they’re a lock for top 3

Miami definitely in that top 4 with bucks nets 76ers.
When we get jrue back soon and even with without Lopez the bucks will be top 2 in East 16-3 when big 3 play. Thats if Bud and bucks care to be he’s got his players playing less minutes than a team like the nets.

Yep agree on the Bucks, feels like they’ve had their time prioritising the regular season - and are now in that phase of a championship team whose just getting ready and trying to peak in time for the playoffs. It’s one of the reasons why I think Giannis is ahead in the MVP race, he plays less minutes then KD and Steph, but still puts up ridiculous stats (and all nba level defence)….

[Hussien Fatal]

For the life of me I can’t understand why Jokic is even in the top 3 of anybodys list, sure he has great advanced stats but his team sucks. You have to win to be a REAL candidate, KD, Embiid and Giannis are much stronger candidates because they have the numbers and their teams are way better record wise. Jokic because of team record should be in the 2nd tier with steph, demar and ja.

Btw Joel strengthens his case with a strong win over the Celtics with a modest performance (for him) of 25 13 and 6 in 32 mins.

[JN61]

If Denver can climb just a little bit, I will consider Jokic a lot more.

Right now I'd vote for Giannis, in what is kind of a weird year with a lot of candidates on teams riddled with issues.

This thing is far from over though. Any of Giannis, Jokic, Durant and even Curry still have a lot of room left to take the lead. And don't let me forget about Embiid.

Lakers suck and LeBron is blatantly stat padding trying to catch the cumulative awards. I wouldn't even consider LeBron and its hilarious to me that his name even came up at all, very predictable stuff. LeBron has a literal army of writers and talking heads that refuse to prioritize anything else. This same group said Jokic "can't win" because of team record. If the Lakers make a dramatic turn around I'll eat my words, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. They really are very fortunate to even be a.500 team.

how do you even statpad points ? specially in a team that needs every point it can get from lebron to stay afloat

Actually Lakers need defense from Lebron. They getting scored on like 120 points when Lebron is center... No amount of offense allows them win constantly with such putrid defense.

[mediocrityrules]

Don't look now but Sixers are 3.5 games out of first. Seems to me that it's more likely that they make a move with Simmons at the deadline. As I said before, if Sixers can sneak into the top 3, Embiid has a very strong shot. LaVine just got hurt (hope it's not bad, I really like watching him play), but Bulls could fall back to earth now. Nets are neutered with Kyrie only playing road games.

I think it ends up being more of a head-to-head between Giannis and Embiid if Embiid keeps this level of play going. Both teams probably top 3 by end of the season, so it comes down to how they're both playing, and just as importantly, how they go against each other. (in no particular order, i think BKN, MLK and PHL are the top 3 east teams at seasons end, to no one's surprise coming into this season).

Don’t forget the Heat, who will finally be back to full strength when Bam returns on Monday. I think they’re a lock for top 3

I feel Heat are fourth seed in the east at the end of the season. Don't see them above Bucks and Nets, and if Philly keep rolling I don't think Heat will finish above them. Still plenty of the season to go however.

[Dutchball97]

For the life of me I can’t understand why Jokic is even in the top 3 of anybodys list, sure he has great advanced stats but his team sucks. You have to win to be a REAL candidate, KD, Embiid and Giannis are much stronger candidates because they have the numbers and their teams are way better record wise. Jokic because of team record should be in the 2nd tier with steph, demar and ja.

Btw Joel strengthens his case with a strong win over the Celtics with a modest performance (for him) of 25 13 and 6 in 32 mins.

If Jokic isn't a contender because the Nuggets are 6th seed then Embiid as the 5th seed also isn't in the running at the moment.

KD still being a MVP candidate is such a weird take with the Nets falling down the rankings, while KD is statistically closer to fringe top 10 players like CP3 and Gobert than he is to real MVP level players like Giannis, Jokic, Curry, LeBron and arguably Embiid at this point.

People need to get some consistency with their seeding vs stats takes because it seems there are different rules for different players.

[DutchManDanFan]

People need to get some consistency with their seeding vs stats takes because it seems there are different rules for different players.

I think most of us agree the MVP needs 50+ wins/top 3 seed and great stats/impact.
We are half way and a lot can happen. What is needed for the top candidates to win?
- Giannis: 55 wins (28-10) and it’s almost certain. 50 wins (23-15) minimum.
- Jokic: 50 wins (29-13)
- Embiid: record equal or better than Bucks. 50 wins = 26-15
- LeBron: 50 wins (29-11)
- Steph: top 2 record in the league (clear), top 2 in scoring (ppg). 60 wins = 29-11.
- KD: no 1 seed in East (clear) and no 1 in scoring. 57 wins = 31-10.

If the Suns get to 60+ wins and no other team is close, I think you have to consider CP3 as well. 60 wins = 28-13.

[Dutchball97]

People need to get some consistency with their seeding vs stats takes because it seems there are different rules for different players.

I think most of us agree the MVP needs 50+ wins/top 3 seed and great stats/impact.
We are half way and a lot can happen. What is needed for the top candidates to win?
- Giannis: 55 wins (28-10) and it’s almost certain. 50 wins (23-15) minimum.
- Jokic: 50 wins (29-13)
- Embiid: record equal or better than Bucks. 50 wins = 26-15
- LeBron: 50 wins (29-11)
- Steph: top 2 record in the league (clear), top 2 in scoring (ppg). 60 wins = 29-11.
- KD: no 1 seed in East (clear) and no 1 in scoring. 57 wins = 31-10.

If the Suns get to 60+ wins and no other team is close, I think you have to consider CP3 as well. 60 wins = 28-13.

It is all relative imo. If all the top teams are solid all around teams without a clear MVP candidate star like the Suns and Bulls then I don't mind the MVP being on a sub-50 win team/lower than 3rd seed. I'd rather see a deserving MVP candidate on an average team win it than a fringe top 10 player on a top team.

As of now I think you could make an argument for any of Giannis, Jokic and Curry with Embiid and LeBron on the rise. KD just hasn't been playing well enough.

[DutchManDanFan]

The easiest path is for Giannis and that’s why he’s leading the new poll. The question is if and when the Bucks start to push for the no 1 seed. They gave away a lot of games, some because of covid and some because they play so casual. If the team decides to go for it and present Giannis another MVP, I’m sure they can. The Bucks are better than last year, certainly if Brook comes back healthy. It would also be good for the allstar chances of Khris and Jrue. Although if Khris and Jrue become allstars this year it might reduce Giannis’ MVP chances...

[_NoMas]

People need to get some consistency with their seeding vs stats takes because it seems there are different rules for different players.

I think most of us agree the MVP needs 50+ wins/top 3 seed and great stats/impact.
We are half way and a lot can happen. What is needed for the top candidates to win?
- Giannis: 55 wins (28-10) and it’s almost certain. 50 wins (23-15) minimum.
- Jokic: 50 wins (29-13)
- Embiid: record equal or better than Bucks. 50 wins = 26-15
- LeBron: 50 wins (29-11)
- Steph: top 2 record in the league (clear), top 2 in scoring (ppg). 60 wins = 29-11.
- KD: no 1 seed in East (clear) and no 1 in scoring. 57 wins = 31-10.

If the Suns get to 60+ wins and no other team is close, I think you have to consider CP3 as well. 60 wins = 28-13.

It is all relative imo. If all the top teams are solid all around teams without a clear MVP candidate star like the Suns and Bulls then I don't mind the MVP being on a sub-50 win team/lower than 3rd seed. I'd rather see a deserving MVP candidate on an average team win it than a fringe top 10 player on a top team.

As of now I think you could make an argument for any of Giannis, Jokic and Curry with Embiid and LeBron on the rise. KD just hasn't been playing well enough.

If this is KD playing badly I’d hate to see what he’s like playing well… 29.7 points a game on 52% shooting, carrying a nets team without Kyrie and, for most parts, an out of sorts Harden.

[Dutchball97]

I think most of us agree the MVP needs 50+ wins/top 3 seed and great stats/impact.
We are half way and a lot can happen. What is needed for the top candidates to win?
- Giannis: 55 wins (28-10) and it’s almost certain. 50 wins (23-15) minimum.
- Jokic: 50 wins (29-13)
- Embiid: record equal or better than Bucks. 50 wins = 26-15
- LeBron: 50 wins (29-11)
- Steph: top 2 record in the league (clear), top 2 in scoring (ppg). 60 wins = 29-11.
- KD: no 1 seed in East (clear) and no 1 in scoring. 57 wins = 31-10.

If the Suns get to 60+ wins and no other team is close, I think you have to consider CP3 as well. 60 wins = 28-13.

It is all relative imo. If all the top teams are solid all around teams without a clear MVP candidate star like the Suns and Bulls then I don't mind the MVP being on a sub-50 win team/lower than 3rd seed. I'd rather see a deserving MVP candidate on an average team win it than a fringe top 10 player on a top team.

As of now I think you could make an argument for any of Giannis, Jokic and Curry with Embiid and LeBron on the rise. KD just hasn't been playing well enough.

If this is KD playing badly I’d hate to see what he’s like playing well… 29.7 points a game on 52% shooting, carrying a nets team without Kyrie and, for most parts, an out of sorts Harden.

Not playing well enough to be MVP does not mean playing badly though. Or do you think everyone outside of the top 5 sucks?

He's 13th in EPM, 19th in RAPTOR, 18th in LEBRON, 6th in BPM, 11th in WS/48 and 6th in PER. The traditional boxscore stats give him a better chance than the more advanced stats incorporating things like +-, luck adjustments and player tracking but even there he doesn't really look like the MVP.