Jammer wrote:Kalela wrote:Captain_Caveman wrote:The real problem is a lack of talent.
And coaching.
And injuries/COVID.
And not having personnel that fits each other offensively, which is a problem that goes beyond PG. Too many iso players that can't move the ball, or who do it too slowly. And motion or moving without the ball? LMAO, no.
What would you do about the lack of talent if you were in Brad's shoes?
Brad is basically screwed due to MANY Bad decisions before he took over.
1) The Two 2019 1rst Picks and Three 2020 1rst Round Picks would have brought in more talent if offered for veterans than spent on rookies. That was the percentage move to make, but for cap reasons, the team went with less talent by drafting rookies.
2) Awful drafting. Looking at just two years as an example:
Guerschon Yabusele (2016 #16) & Ante Zizic (2016 #23) were chosen over:
Caris LeVert - 2016 #20
Pascal Siakam - 2016 #27
Dejounte Murray - 2016 #29
Ivica Zubac - 2016 # 32
Malcolm Brogdan - 2016 #36Marcus Smart (2014 #6) and James Young (2014 #17) were chosen over:
Julius Randle - 2014 #7
Zach LaVine - 2014 #13
Jusuf Nurkic - 2014 #16
Clint Capela - 2014 #25
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 2014 #27
Joe Harris - 2014 #33
Spencer Dinwiddie - 2014 #38
Jerami Grant - 2014 #39
Nikola Jokic - 2014 #41
Jordan Clarkson - 2014 #46I really question if the previous Man in Charge pulled the actual game film (ENTIRE GAMES) on the Top 15 to 20 guys at every position, and copiously reviewed MANY COMPLETE games of each potential draftee. That is the only possible explanation for the huge misses in 2014 and 2016. There were 10 players available better than any Celtic pick in 2014 that were not drafted, and five better than either Celtic late 1rst in 2016. So, even though a GM is paid a MULIPLE of a 7 figure salary, it would seem that the previous GM did not copiously review actual game film. Can't for the life of me believe Ainge did. The only way they make the misses they did was if they went off "stats" and draft lists versus seeing for themselves the ones in the Top 75 to Top 100 worthy of attending multiple games IN PERSON (or, to not tip anyone off, just getting all the game film). (I don't mean Agents highlight reels, which can get a bum get drafted at #1 (Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown).
Moving forward, there is very little in the cupboard other than 7 1rst Round Picks (4 tradeable), none of which are guaranteed to be in the lottery, and Four 2nd Round Picks (2022; Portland's 2023; Houston, Dallas or Miami's 2023; Indiana or Miami's 2026).
So, looking at who is available that's better than Smart and worth their contract, there is no one right now that jumps off the map as a reasonable solution to what the Celtics could use. It's going to require a lot of patience to see who may become available that fits at a cost effective salary and trade equation (what you have to give up). I think every move Brad has made up to now has been a positive and insightful and well thought. I trust that the trend will continue. Normally I can propose reasonable trades with ease but the available pool right now of Point Guards and backup wings is somewhat dry. Every NBA player that can get a starting position at any of the 30 teams seems to opt for that, and the consummate pay, then being a backup. Every player that can be a backup on a better team than his alternatives tends to opt to be a backup where he is guaranteed the most minutes (and usually the salary to go with it) then a less certain situation. So part of the negotiation for a top talent is what you can guarantee him as to his role. Right now with Ime I don't think that any really talented guys are gonna be signing up to play for Ime unless it comes with a promise of a starter position or x # of minutes off the bench. And when you trade for a guy, you want him to buy into the situation rather than do it blindly. So resolving the minutes distribution for the PGs and backup wings is part of the deal in bringing in anyone of substance. The coaching staff has got to get their act together on what they want, how they will use the guy, and commit to him in advance for the player to want to get on board. Things like shots per game can even come into that discussion.
And if the player or his agent ask a question such as anticipated shots per game, and the Head Coach waffles in his answer, don't expect a player that can really help to jump on board. Just doesn't happen.
I don't see any of this the same way. No one cares about a pu-pu platter of draft picks outside the top 10. Look at any draft value chart. It would take like 20 late firsts to provide the same overall value as one pick in the 5-10 range, and even then, it is preferable to just have the one higher pick. While it sucks that we lost out on Bane and Thybulle, what you are really saying there is that we chose not to give up two late firsts for guys like an expiring Davis Bertans. Considering that those picks would have been Grant Williams and Pritchard, I don't think it's that solid a point.
There is also no GM in the history of the sport that looks good under the metric of whether to not they always drafted the best player available with all their picks, and especially outside of the top 10. Ainge was irrefutably one of the top drafters in the league if you are judging all teams and GMs by the same standards. He hit on all of the high picks he kept, he correctly traded out on the high picks he didn't keep, his hit rate outside the lottery was elite at all ranges of the draft, and a large majority of his picks would have gone higher in hypothetical redrafts.
If you are expecting a 100% hit rate outside of the lottery, that's beyond unfair. Might as well bash Ted Williams for only batting .400 in 1941, or Steph Curry for only hitting 43% percent of his career 3s. His draft record led to an average of one good to very good role player a year with
nonlottery picks. That's almost unheard of, especially with the sheer amount of young players we have had fighting for minutes and reps. Talking about guys like Rondo, Bradley, TA, Al Jefferson, Big Baby, Perkins, Timelord, Pritchard, Grant Williams, Rozier, Gerald Green, Ojeleye, etc. When we traded picks, it led to guys like Ray Allen, IT, Kyrie, and even made the KG trade possible. Even with the bad luck on Kyrie, that's really good ROI relative to the value those picks had.
Even on some of the misses, there is a backstory. We drafted Yabusele and Zizic so that we could eurostash them for a year and preserve max cap room for Horford, which worked out pretty well for us.
As to Smart, don't like that one either. It was him or Randle, and Smart has had a more successful career than Randle in the aggregate. Randle is also on his third team, and the one that drafted him got little out of it. If there's something to be mad about with that pick, it's that he we didn't tank hard hard enough the year before and missed out on Embiid.
