RJ's Upside

[god shammgod]

this post is good because it lets us imagine what nykmentality posts would be like if he was less positive

[Deeeez Knicks]

Why are the Star #2 players are better then the Star #1 players?

[DOT]

this post is good because it lets us imagine what nykmentality posts would be like if he was less positive

Name me 10 players who hit more 3s than RJ before age 22 while drafted in the top 3 from Duke to a team on the East Coast above the Mason-Dixon Line in games played on weekends

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I'll wait

[robillionaire]

I was running the numbers and I noticed that randle despite his slump and as bad as everyone hates him is still +0.3 OBPM and +0.1 DBPM and +0.4 BPM and 1.0 VORP (tied for highest on the team). And RJ is -0.4 OBPM and -1.2 DBPM and -1.6 BPM (tied with Kevin Knox for a frame of reference) and 0.1 VORP which is not good. And at -124 he has the worst +/- on the entire team, even worse than Randle (-106). Very interesting and hard to explain

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/knicks-plus-minus-for-all-players

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2022.html

[El Poochio]

Cam Reddish aka Red Star

[BugginOut]

I was running the numbers and I noticed that randle despite his slump and as bad as everyone hates him is still +0.3 OBPM and +0.1 DBPM and +0.4 BPM and 1.0 VORP (tied for highest on the team). And RJ is -0.4 OBPM and -1.2 DBPM and -1.6 BPM (tied with Kevin Knox for a frame of reference) and 0.1 VORP which is not good. And at -124 he has the worst +/- on the entire team, even worse than Randle (-106). Very interesting and hard to explain

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/knicks-plus-minus-for-all-players

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2022.html

Because RJ, Randle and the starters have been terrible for most of the year.

Also RJ would be at 20 ppg already if it wasn't for the november slump when he was sick.

First 9 games: 19 ppg

Next 12 (until he sat for illness): 10 ppg

Since then( 19 games):21 PPG

Also I have to see the impact numbers Randle and RJ have put up without Kemba. Since Kemba’s been out the starters have all had a positive +/-. I don’t know how but his presence really makes RJ and Randle play terrible

[Spree2Houston]

Corey Maggette

[Chanel Bomber]

RJs ceiling is over his head.

You're not a huge fan and you're trying to be fair about it? That's cool. Stats and your interpretation of them can become whatever you want then to be.

In real life watching him play and grow the last three years...I see a secondary star. #2 or #3 option. I don't think he'll carry a team but he will definitely help a team win games.

Is he there yet? No. Is this a guarantee he will get there? No. That's his ceiling. I dont see a Lebron/KD/Harden etc in the making here. I see a solid #2 or #3 player on a winning team though. It usually comes down to who the other players on the team are with guys like RJ. He is not gonna will a team t the finals by himself but...he will most likely be Robin type player on a contender if he reaches his ceiling.

When did I ever say I wanted to be fair?

I just shared a framework from which to analyze his ceiling or his upside (the term I actually wanted to use).

I said one of his most likely outcomes was a medium star like Middleton or Beal? Is that a diss?

[Chanel Bomber]

this post is good because it lets us imagine what nykmentality posts would be like if he was less positive

I also added colors for better readability because I'm very empathetic.

Did you like the colors

[robillionaire]

this post is good because it lets us imagine what nykmentality posts would be like if he was less positive

I also added colors for better readability because I'm very empathetic.

Did you like the colors

The bright red really emphasizes how terrifyingly bad he is. I’m stunned by this news

[Chanel Bomber]

So he went from

I love RJ, he just isn't good. At all.

He was by far our most important pick/player since Melo pre-knee surgery.

More important than Randle. More important than KP. More important than Ron Baker.

And we missed completely.

The most damaging side to this is we needed a point guard and Garland - whose game was perfectly tailored for the modern game - was right there for the taking. I leaned towards RJ in the end, but I don't get paid millions to make those decisions either.

This could turn out to be another one of those what if moments. Our drafting from 2017 to 2019 has set back the franchise another decade tbh.

To “bad star”

In 10 games.

At this rate Channel will have RJ on Mount Rushmore by the end of the season.

"Bad star" isn't a compliment though. It's just low efficiency on high volume. Some players can redefine their game in a different role, like Stackhouse when he came off the bench for the Mavericks. But you didn't want him taking 20 shots a game. I meant "bad star" as an undesirable (potential) outcome.

[3toheadmelo]

3rd option at best in my eyes

[dakomish23]

So he went from

I love RJ, he just isn't good. At all.

He was by far our most important pick/player since Melo pre-knee surgery.

More important than Randle. More important than KP. More important than Ron Baker.

And we missed completely.

The most damaging side to this is we needed a point guard and Garland - whose game was perfectly tailored for the modern game - was right there for the taking. I leaned towards RJ in the end, but I don't get paid millions to make those decisions either.

This could turn out to be another one of those what if moments. Our drafting from 2017 to 2019 has set back the franchise another decade tbh.

To “bad star”

In 10 games.

At this rate Channel will have RJ on Mount Rushmore by the end of the season.

"Bad star" isn't a compliment though. It's just low efficiency on high volume. Some players can redefine their game in a different role, like Stackhouse when he came off the bench for the Mavericks. But you didn't want him taking 20 shots a game. I meant "bad star" as an undesirable (potential) outcome.

Are “bad stars” not good at all? Or are they misused?

[DowNY]

Ah, the new thread to bump instead of the “Is RJ a bust?” Thread.
Nice

[DowNY]

If he’s not the player to build around, he’s at least the player to build with.

[Jalen Bluntson]

RJs ceiling is over his head.

You're not a huge fan and you're trying to be fair about it? That's cool. Stats and your interpretation of them can become whatever you want then to be.

In real life watching him play and grow the last three years...I see a secondary star. #2 or #3 option. I don't think he'll carry a team but he will definitely help a team win games.

Is he there yet? No. Is this a guarantee he will get there? No. That's his ceiling. I dont see a Lebron/KD/Harden etc in the making here. I see a solid #2 or #3 player on a winning team though. It usually comes down to who the other players on the team are with guys like RJ. He is not gonna will a team t the finals by himself but...he will most likely be Robin type player on a contender if he reaches his ceiling.

When did I ever say I wanted to be fair?

I just shared a framework from which to analyze his ceiling or his upside (the term I actually wanted to use).

I said one of his most likely outcomes was a medium star like Middleton or Beal? Is that a diss?

You shared a framework based on your interpretation of stats and players. So what? We all know you doubt he will reach his ceiling. Not sure why we needed a thread for this honestly. Could have put it in the bust thread.

His ceiling is a #2 on a winner. His floor is what we see now. Time will tell how it works out. Trying to define him at age 21 halfway through his 3rd season is good for discussion I suppose. He has clearly improved on different things every season. That's all I care about. His ceiling is years away. He is a hustler who works in his craft and carries himself better than the alleged leader of this team. He has what it takes to become a better player. Whatever the end result is...we won't know for YEARS most likely.

[BugginOut]

Read on Twitter

His ceiling is somewhere in this group

[Capn'O]

3rd option at best in my eyes

I think 2 but you need somebody who is absolutely dynamic as the 1. Great athlete and very quick with release/movements.

It's the intrigue with Reddish, I suppose, but perhaps not the realiiy.

[dakomish23]

I was running the numbers and I noticed that randle despite his slump and as bad as everyone hates him is still +0.3 OBPM and +0.1 DBPM and +0.4 BPM and 1.0 VORP (tied for highest on the team). And RJ is -0.4 OBPM and -1.2 DBPM and -1.6 BPM (tied with Kevin Knox for a frame of reference) and 0.1 VORP which is not good. And at -124 he has the worst +/- on the entire team, even worse than Randle (-106). Very interesting and hard to explain

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/knicks-plus-minus-for-all-players

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2022.html

Because RJ, Randle and the starters have been terrible for most of the year.

Also RJ would be at 20 ppg already if it wasn't for the november slump when he was sick.

First 9 games: 19 ppg

Next 12 (until he sat for illness): 10 ppg

Since then( 19 games):21 PPG

Also I have to see the impact numbers Randle and RJ have put up without Kemba. Since Kemba’s been out the starters have all had a positive +/-. I don’t know how but his presence really makes RJ and Randle play terrible

Just some numbers without context for your Kemba theory

350 mins
K. Walker, .E. Fournier, .J. Randle, .M. Robinson, .R. Barrett
103.8 ORTG
115.3 DRTG
-11.5 NRTG

161 mins
A. Burks, .E. Fournier, .J. Randle, .M. Robinson, .R. Barrett
116.9 ORTG
116.9 DRTG
0.00 NRTG

https://go.nba.com/rartg

566 mins
E. Fournier, .J. Randle, .M. Robinson, .R. Barrett
107.4 ORTG
115.1 DRTG
-7.7 NRTG

378 mins
K. Walker, .E. Fournier, .M. Robinson, .R. Barrett
101.2 ORTG
113.8 DRTG
-12.7 NRTG

https://go.nba.com/eiqj8

[thebuzzardman]

Here's RJ's ceiling



Feel free to photoshop RJ's head onto Adam's.