The-Power wrote:yoyoboy wrote:Detroit was projected to win 24.5 games before the season. Cleveland was projected to win 26.5 games. The idea that the Cavs are in such a great position for Mobley to succeed is one people are only now saying after the fact.
I'm not sure that really matters with respect to RoY, though. I'm sure you have Allen and Garland as potential All-Stars, and deservedly so. There's nobody even close to that level on the Pistons; and neither has Mobley turned these two players into All-Stars, nor is Cade holding back any Piston from reaching that level. You can also see that the Cavs without Mobley are still playing at a high level, whereas Detroit just sucks no matter who is on the court. So I'm not sure arguments relying on team performance matter much here, but of course it depends on how one personally determines the RotY.
To me, Mobley is having a better season up until this point but I still have Cade as the best prospect in the draft, as I did before they were drafted. Recently, Cade is showing why I was so high on him, and for an on-ball creator in the NBA, the adjustment period he needed (and still needs to some extent) is completely normal. Mobley is who I'd draft 2nd, though, so I definitely like what he has shown. This draft shapes up to be incredible, and more than fulfills my already high pre-draft expectations. There will be ups and downs, of course, but in a couple years I'm confident that we'll look back at this draft and view it as one of the best in a long time.
Sure, but again, Allen’s improvement this year is partially reflective of Mobley’s impact. He’s been in two different situations and he’s been in the league for four seasons and was largely the same player for all of them, but all of a sudden he’s playing like an All-Defensive Team candidate and a potential All-Star. In the summer, 99% of non-Cavs fans thought the Cavs were insane for giving Allen $20 million a year so that goes to show where public opinion of him as a player was at. Looking at him, I just don’t think it’s so much that he vastly improved his abilities (added strength and better footwork have definitely helped though) and it’s more so he’s in a more optimal role now where Mobley allows him to better play to his strengths and roam more than he has in the past. And I’m not ignoring that having Allen helps Mobley by not having him bang as much, as well, so I think it’s reciprocal.
Garland legitimately improved his abilities, aggressiveness, and decision making. I don’t think his offensive improvement has anything to do with Mobley it I’m being honest. But Darius currently ranks 4th in the entire NBA in RAPM, largely propped up by him ranking 6th in defensive-RAPM. For reference, he ranked 321st last season on a team where Allen was still behind him. His improvement by my eyes hasn’t been crazy substantial and in a vacuum he’s still probably a below average defender. But playing alongside Mobley who covers an insane amount of ground has really allowed DG to funnel guys into the paint, gamble more in the passing lanes, and not get switched into mismatches as often. He smartly plays a limited defensive role and that wouldn’t happen without a defensive phenom like Mobley. In addition to production/measurable on-court impact, I think the presence of a guy on a roster allowing other guys to function in more ideal roles is something that’s overlooked and very important.
I agree that the Cavs’ roster is better and I’m not trying to exclusively look at win total projections as some indication of talent. But I do think it’s useful to some degree because it gives some context of how a team’s talent was viewed under the impression that a guy like a rookie Mobley wouldn’t be contributing to wins year one. In my opinion, without a substantial sample size of minutes where a player actually misses whole games, plus-minus data and metrics derived from it are just really noisy. And it’s easier for a team to manage in a 12-15 minute period where a player is off the court rather than 48 minutes where a guy isn’t even on the bench. If I recall correctly, in 2015, LeBron’s plus-minus numbers weren’t that impressive. Until he went on that like 2 week hiatus where the Cavs looked abysmal without him. Then by the end, he has the best RAPM in the league and one that’s significantly better than he’s had in prior and following years where he had clearly better seasons but didn’t miss as much time. Likewise, I have a feeling that Anthony Davis’ defensive metrics, which the last few years have been very underwhelming, are all of a sudden going to look pretty good by the end of the year now that we’ll have a sizable sample where he missed games and the Lakers clearly couldn’t manage without the defensive load he carried. Finally, I think part of Curry’s MVP case lies in the fact that the Warriors based on their roster weren’t expected to be this good. Someone like Gary Payton II has crazy advanced metrics right now, but when I consider how he played in past seasons and what the expectations were, I now have to attribute a lot of credit to Steph because I think he’s a huge reason why he’s been so successful for the team.
Essentially, I just really push back on the idea that Cade is in an inherently tougher spot to produce compared to Mobley as well as the idea that his load is more. People tend to only consider the offensive side of the ball when thinking about team responsibility. And as far as production, it’s difficult to be a rookie and fit into a team that’s winning right now with the best SRS in the conference, where you’re facing teams every night that are taking you seriously and game planning heavily for you. Teams likely aren’t doing that to the same degree with the Pistons, and Cade is able to have more freedom to try things, make mistakes, and put up a pretty slash line compared to Mobley who’s first and foremost expected to be the anchor of a #3 ranked defense and be the secondary creator in any given lineup, specifically now that Rubio and Sexton are gone.
