Wait, what? Did I hear you right? Did Anthony Edwards just make a jump to be a top 25 player at 20?

[Mike87]

Great post and appreciate the effort put in. I don't think he's quite there yet but slowing creeping to top 25 status. If he can up his free throw attempts and push to 27ish ppg range (which I think he will do in the next few years) he'll be there and continue climbing higher. Very impressive what he's doing at just 20 years old.

[thinktank]

I just want to say that his Black Jesus quote last night was hilarious and that would be a hilarious nickname for him.

Is that taken by Ray Allen?

[AbeVigodaLive]

I just want to say that his Black Jesus quote last night was hilarious and that would be a hilarious nickname for him.

Is that taken by Ray Allen?

not exactly...

[Egg Nog]

1) TheZachAttack is going to wear out his keyboard

2) Ant-Man is good but definitely not top 25 right now. Next year quite likely.

[Slurpin]

He isnt top 25 yet but he is better than LaMelo

[SeattleJazzFan]

23 ppg on 56.5% TS - if he's not top 25, he's knocking on the door.

[Sothron]

The TWolves are my 1b team to the Hawks 1a and even I wouldn't go this far. KAT is a better player than Ant. Ant is definitely trending up and that's fantastic. But is he right now a top 25 player in the NBA? No. He is not. That's not a dig at him. It is just being honest.

[TheZachAttack]

1) TheZachAttack is going to wear out his keyboard

2) Ant-Man is good but definitely not top 25 right now. Next year quite likely.

His last ~35-40 games he's been playing at a level where he can be considered among other guys in the range of top 25. In my post, I established the production thresholds of what a wing/guard who is ~top 25 in the league must produce at and Edwards in his last 25 games exceeds those thresholds for the most part. The question is if his production over that stretch is real and repeatable as an expected baseline going forward.

[cupcakesnake]

Yep the sample size now is getting pretty encouraging. He's been very efficient for 2 months now after starting the season pretty chaotically.

I think the exciting thing about Ant is: he still looks raw and wild. He still doesn't have good shot selection. But even with those things holding him back, he's been incredibly effective. The talent is just elite. To be this good and still have so much room to grow is extremely encouraging.

I agree with your overall statement. However, I disagree with your statement on shot selection.

Ant’s shot profile is arguably the best in terms of efficiency among any volume scorer in the NBA. He’s top 5 among wings/guards in shots at the rim, transition points, points off turnovers, and 3 point attempts while shooting the lowest amount of midrange shots among any #1/#2 options that I compared with.

Really, he just needs more usage so he can drive more often and draw more contact (but needs to become a better ball handler so that he can be used more while also keeping teammates involved). It’s really a myth that he doesn’t have a good shot selection. Especially when you realize that he has the ~3rd best 3 point shooting percentage among the highest 20 3 point volume shooters.

There actually isn’t really any other wings/guards in the league who have a shot selection/profile that’s as efficiency as his. It’s part of the reason for his jump this season and his efficiency.

You can’t be among the league leaders in attempts s the rim, 3 pointers, and transition baskets while shooting almost no mid range shots and have an inefficient shot selection.

Can you help me understand why you think his shot selection is inefficient?

Yep I'm not disagreeing with your outline. I read your OP and everything you've said about Ant's shot selection and I'm not refuting that or arguing with the stats. But having an efficient shot selection profile (shots at the rim and threes) isn't the same thing as having great shot selection, or, perhaps a more appropriate way to state my point: Ant isn't a good decision maker yet. He takes a ton of threes but doesn't distinguish between the threes he's good at (catch and shoot and the corners) vs. the 3s he's mediocre at (pull up 3s above the break). He attacks the rim relentlessly, but often ignores where the help is coming from. He'll meet Gobert or Porzingis at the rim all night, which is kind of cool, but he looks stubborn and dumb when he comes up empty several times. He doesn't draw fouls like a monstrously strong driver should.

You're arguing for more usage, which I'm interested in too. But it's clear that Finch tries to put him more in situations where he's a finisher, because he's just much more efficient and effective doing that right now. Sometimes it feels like Finch is trying to cage the beast, but I think Ant having some structure will be good for both his long term development, and for Wolves wins right now. He's so talented that he thinks he can make any shot, and he sort of can, but it's clear the system is imposing a ton of rules on Ant, and sometimes he likes to push against those rules. It's an interesting thing to monitor.

- He's really good shooting off the catch (43% from 3, 19% of his attempts), but he loves to pull up off the dribble (33% from 3, 27% of his attempts).
- He loves to take contested 2-point pull ups when he gets a chance (he doesn't get a chance much and I think that's been a big point of emphasis from the coaching staff).
- Basically the longer Ant holds the ball, or the more he dribbles, the more his efficiency falls off. He has an efg% of 61(!) when he holds the ball for less than 2 seconds, and it drops to 53% from 2-6 seconds, and 46% after 6 seconds (per nba.com). He takes roughly a third of shots in each category. He has a similar from off in terms of dribbles: 64.5% with 0 dribbles, medium efficiency from 1-6 dribbles, 45.8% with 7+ dribbles. He gets 27% of his offense off no dribbles and 26% of 7+ dribbles, which I think seems like a drastic number that reinforces what I'm seeing in that Ant alternates between being a finisher and less efficient ball dominant attacker.

I'm being pretty nitpicky. We're talking about a 2-year player and I think it's actually great that Ant has some freedom to explore and plenty of accountability to an offensive role/system. I'm not pushing back on your points about his shot profile, just explaining what I find lacking in his overall shot selection/decision making.

[TheZachAttack]

The TWolves are my 1b team to the Hawks 1a and even I wouldn't go this far. KAT is a better player than Ant. Ant is definitely trending up and that's fantastic. But is he right now a top 25 player in the NBA? No. He is not. That's not a dig at him. It is just being honest.

The title wasn't meant to be the main takeaway from the post--mostly provactive. In Ant's last ~35 games though, the data suggests he's been producing at levels that exceed the average production thresholds of what we'd generally expect from wings who we consider to be in the top 20-25 range.

Can that be his expected baseline going forward? I'm not sure we know that. The top 25 comment was provocative in the sense of, wait Ant has been at that level over this stretch... is this him making that jump? I'm not sure we know for sure yet... but the longer he extends his increased level of play the stronger the degree of confidence that he's established yet another new baseline. The other call-out was that his stretch of play this year, whether or not it's a leap to top 25ish, seemingly establishes his 2nd half of last year as for real given he's reproduced at that level or better that he was at for the 2nd half of last year over the first half of this year with an offseason in between.

That's the only statements made from that long block of text and I don't think either statement is really that refutable.

[TheZachAttack]

Yep the sample size now is getting pretty encouraging. He's been very efficient for 2 months now after starting the season pretty chaotically.

I think the exciting thing about Ant is: he still looks raw and wild. He still doesn't have good shot selection. But even with those things holding him back, he's been incredibly effective. The talent is just elite. To be this good and still have so much room to grow is extremely encouraging.

I agree with your overall statement. However, I disagree with your statement on shot selection.

Ant’s shot profile is arguably the best in terms of efficiency among any volume scorer in the NBA. He’s top 5 among wings/guards in shots at the rim, transition points, points off turnovers, and 3 point attempts while shooting the lowest amount of midrange shots among any #1/#2 options that I compared with.

Really, he just needs more usage so he can drive more often and draw more contact (but needs to become a better ball handler so that he can be used more while also keeping teammates involved). It’s really a myth that he doesn’t have a good shot selection. Especially when you realize that he has the ~3rd best 3 point shooting percentage among the highest 20 3 point volume shooters.

There actually isn’t really any other wings/guards in the league who have a shot selection/profile that’s as efficiency as his. It’s part of the reason for his jump this season and his efficiency.

You can’t be among the league leaders in attempts s the rim, 3 pointers, and transition baskets while shooting almost no mid range shots and have an inefficient shot selection.

Can you help me understand why you think his shot selection is inefficient?

Yep I'm not disagreeing with your outline. I read your OP and everything you've said about Ant's shot selection and I'm not refuting that or arguing with the stats. But having an efficient shot selection profile (shots at the rim and threes) isn't the same thing as having great shot selection, or, perhaps a more appropriate way to state my point: Ant isn't a good decision maker yet. He takes a ton of threes but doesn't distinguish between the threes he's good at (catch and shoot and the corners) vs. the 3s he's mediocre at (pull up 3s above the break). He attacks the rim relentlessly, but often ignores where the help is coming from. He'll meet Gobert or Porzingis at the rim all night, which is kind of cool, but he looks stubborn and dumb when he comes up empty several times. He doesn't draw fouls like a monstrously strong driver should.

You're arguing for more usage, which I'm interested in too. But it's clear that Finch tries to put him more in situations where he's a finisher, because he's just much more efficient and effective doing that right now. Sometimes it feels like Finch is trying to cage the beast, but I think Ant having some structure will be good for both his long term development, and for Wolves wins right now. He's so talented that he thinks he can make any shot, and he sort of can, but it's clear the system is imposing a ton of rules on Ant, and sometimes he likes to push against those rules. It's an interesting thing to monitor.

- He's really good shooting off the catch (43% from 3, 19% of his attempts), but he loves to pull up off the dribble (33% from 3, 27% of his attempts).
- He loves to take contested 2-point pull ups when he gets a chance (he doesn't get a chance much and I think that's been a big point of emphasis from the coaching staff).
- Basically the longer Ant holds the ball, or the more he dribbles, the more his efficiency falls off. He has an efg% of 61(!) when he holds the ball for less than 2 seconds, and it drops to 53% from 2-6 seconds, and 46% after 6 seconds (per nba.com). He takes roughly a third of shots in each category. He has a similar from off in terms of dribbles: 64.5% with 0 dribbles, medium efficiency from 1-6 dribbles, 45.8% with 7+ dribbles. He gets 27% of his offense off no dribbles and 26% of 7+ dribbles, which I think seems like a drastic number that reinforces what I'm seeing in that Ant alternates between being a finisher and less efficient ball dominant attacker.

I'm being pretty nitpicky. We're talking about a 2-year player and I think it's actually great that Ant has some freedom to explore and plenty of accountability to an offensive role/system. I'm not pushing back on your points about his shot profile, just explaining what I find lacking in his overall shot selection/decision making.

Thanks - I totally agree with almost all of this in terms of his limitations as a player and how that limits him to certain roles and shot types that impact outcomes.

I think some of the drop-offs you mention and volume that he shoots from certain areas is something that we talk about without context for #1 options. The best path to develop a number option isn't by trying to limit him into being only a catch and shoot 3 point shooter or corner three point shooter or to limit him to baskets where he doesn't touch the ball for a long time (transition/catch and shoot). Teams need guys who can create their own shots at will and take and make tough shots from those spots--someone is going to have to be taking those types of shots.

I totally agree that he's limited from other top wings because of his decision making and a little bit because of his ability as a playmaker as a ball-handler and that forces him into a role as a finisher and impacts his usage into a profile that is somewhat more limited than what you would eventually want. I agree with all of the things you've pointed out that he can improve to take his game to the next level and the impacts those limitations have on his game and thus your overall conclusion around being excited that he's so good despite those limitations and those limitations being somewhat normal things for a player at his stage of development.

[DusterBuster]

Probably will crack Top 30 next year, close to it now. Kid seems to have a MASSSIVE ego on him tho, so something I'd keep an eye on if it could be a problem for him in the future, but maybe not, we'll see.

[kuclas]

If Minnesota can resign dlo to good 4/120 million dollar extension. They definitely got their core 3 players all under 25-26. Dlo becomes free agent in 2023 off season. Hoping kat makes all nba 3rd team center this season or next and KAT gets super max extension as well

Minnesota will be competing for real for a long term with ant man KAT and dlo.
KAT is a top 20 nba player already.

Ant man is current top 40-50. Can move into the top 40 soon

Dlo is still a good chucker.

[jazzfan1971]

I have discovered the 8th wonder of the world: the realGM Great Wall of Text!

[Godymas]

Meh - this post isn’t meant for you then and I didn’t write it for you. Imagine complaining about free content.

your content is just one of billions amongst all the free content in the world

free content doesn't make for good content, good content is engaging, the fact that you have to bump your own efforts says enough about the quality of your content

This post is sharing a process I used to figure out how to think about Edwards improvement this year and a jump he has seemingly made as a player. It does two things, 1) dig into Edwards underlying profile 2) define thresholds for what type of underlying profile is shared by wings who are #1a or #1b scorer and considered in the top 25 range.

It's also planting a flag on an observation and a prediction for the future. I don't care about responses, but shared it instead of letting it go into the oblivian. The cheeky bump is just after his 40 point game and an additional 3 weeks of production suggesting a sample size that's bordering on something much more actionable in response to a lot of posts laughing saying you can't make predictions based off of the sample size I was using.

If you don't like the content--go somewhere else. I didn't write this trying to make the perfect piece of content. It's a resource that may allow you to learn a thing or two if you're interested--or if not then don't. It's also a data point that allows me to plant a flag on an observation that I can come back to.

if i don't like the content, i have the ability to tell you exactly why i don't like the content

look clearly you need to talk to people or something, this amount of time spent writing about the career of a player who has barely played 100 games in the NBA, it's a bit ridiculous to try and think you could write a full thesis about it. there is only so much nuance to the game of a volume scorer with elite body movement, now if you wanted to break down the era's of LeBron James in an essay long post, that would be a very interesting read and justify the amount of time put in to write such a long post and it would be worth reading, but to read such a long post about such a young player who hasn't even gotten close to their potential and just shows physical tools, it's a bit much.

it's not like Anthony Edwards is going to be the next Jordan, he had a good debut and is playing well, but Jordan was literally an MVP player his first year in the league.

But who am I to stop you from writing, by all means write, just be willing to accept the criticism when other's give it to you instead of saying "well you can leave" it shows a lack of maturity on your part if you want to forcefully tailor your post to a certain audience. then accept the lower audience you are going to receive and let the post die instead of bumping it.

just some food for thought.

[Flopper]

Volume posting also an underappreciated skill.

[Cavsfansince84]

I can't shake the feeling that AE is Bradley Beal with a little more size and athleticism. Which means he could be a top 15-20 player for 10 years but idk about him leading a team much of anywhere.

[Diop]

i dont know where some of you people get the time to write so much crap

[Slim Tubby]

There isn’t a team in the league, and their fans, that wouldn’t be promoting Ant as one of the next big things. The kid is special.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dakomish23]

Not there…yet.