2022 NBA Draft

[CptCrunch]

Rebounding is often a mentality. You can tell Smith to rebound, but he isn't going to become Steven Adams or Jarrett Allen.

Mobley has similar shades of this. Despite being elite defensively, doesn't suck up the boards at elite rates.

I don't really see rebounding as an issue for him assuming he has the ability to contest rebounds when needed. A player doesn't need to hound rebounds like rebounding specialist or pad rebounds like Westbrook to be a positive impact defender.

[clyde21]

agree with the lewis comp. he's in love with the jumper and doesn't rebound. very skilled but soft.

having said that, he's so young - not sure it's fair or possible to make a judgment like that at this point - these guys can become entirely different players than what we're seeing right now.

where is this 'doesnt rebound' stuff coming from? he's averaging 8.4 boards per 36 despite playing the majority of his minutes on the perimeter on offense.

[WargamesX]

agree with the lewis comp. he's in love with the jumper and doesn't rebound. very skilled but soft.

having said that, he's so young - not sure it's fair or possible to make a judgment like that at this point - these guys can become entirely different players than what we're seeing right now.

where is this 'doesnt rebound' stuff coming from? he's averaging 8.4 boards per 36 despite playing the majority of his minutes on the perimeter on offense.

I also don’t think “he’s in love with the jumper” or soft when he does drive he looks to draw contact a lot more than Lewis did. Lewis is underrated but I think Smith has a lot more potential than a high level stretch four.

[DCasey91]

yea that's fine, to me tho it's more likely he's an Okoro or Okogie than a Butler or Tucker, Butler/Tucker have some outlier skills that you can't really project onto anyone else because it required some outlier development on their side...could happen with AJ but I don't think you draft based on potential outlier development.

like Okoro and Okogie, it's kinda hard to define what they are in the NBA. they can be useful, but ceiling is low because of that imo. that's where I would put him at this point with potential for more if things fall right for him (but u can say that about a lot of guys).

Difference is Griffin has that class aspect over Okoro, Culver, Okogie etc from years gone by in juniors.

He’s Butler 2.0 or thereabouts imo he has it all the tools to be an All Star easily. His efficiency off the bounce shooting and at the rim should tell you, forget raw stats he’s top 5 for me.

Two way wing/guards is basically an A++ value archetype at the next level.

[DCasey91]

AJ Griffin will be the Patrick Williams of this draft and get drafted A LOT higher than people project.

Did people here not have records of AJ pre College? He was arguably the best guard/wing prospect in juniors with more of a rounded game than Hardy skillwise, it was injury woes that’s literally it. I laugh at the Okoro, Tucker, Williams comps. They were raw, AJ is not. There’s a real thing called class it’s written all over him.

He’s a better facilitator than Keels too and that isn’t much of discussion either. It’s just that Coach K’s ego stifles youngsters proper development for winning. (See RJ and Zion mishandled now Banchero).

He’s legit as can be. I called him the darkhorse ages ago.

[CptCrunch]

Anyways, I went to check AJ Griffin Jr's injury history.

January 3, 2020 - dislocated left knee, came back on February 29 to win the 'CHSAA Archdiocesan final'

Sometimes late summer 2021 - sprained his ankle, sat out his senior year. This really sounds like NBA coach, AJ Griffin Sr shut down his son for the year which is smart seeing how bad strains almost ended Curry's career. AJ Griffin Jr spent his senior year in Tampa with his dad, where the Raptors were.

October 9, 2021 - sprained left knee at Duke, no structural damage (4-6 weeks), came back on November 9 against Kentucky.

A sequence of injuries, nagging kind, but not sure if these are long term issues. His left knee is definitely a little wobbly with two injuries within past two years.

[jezzerinho]

AJ Griffin will be the Patrick Williams of this draft and get drafted A LOT higher than people project.

Did people here not have records of AJ pre College? He was arguably the best guard/wing prospect in juniors with more of a rounded game than Hardy skillwise, it was injury woes that’s literally it. I laugh at the Okoro, Tucker, Williams comps. They were raw, AJ is not. There’s a real thing called class it’s written all over him.

He’s better facilitator than Keels too and that isn’t much of discussion either. It’s just that Coach K’s ego stifles youngsters proper development for winning. (See RJ and Zion mishandled now Banchero).

He’s legit as can be. I called him the darkhorse ages ago.

He's the sole player in my Tier 1 for now. Injury-allowing, i don't see any future outcome for home that won't be a positive for the team that drafts him at both ends of the court. The degree of positivity is yet to be seen, but i would err on the optimistic side with him. He has so much going for him.

[babyjax13]

AJ Griffin will be the Patrick Williams of this draft and get drafted A LOT higher than people project.

Did people here not have records of AJ pre College? He was arguably the best guard/wing prospect in juniors with more of a rounded game than Hardy skillwise, it was injury woes that’s literally it. I laugh at the Okoro, Tucker, Williams comps. They were raw, AJ is not. There’s a real thing called class it’s written all over him.

He’s better facilitator than Keels too and that isn’t much of discussion either. It’s just that Coach K’s ego stifles youngsters proper development for winning. (See RJ and Zion mishandled now Banchero).

He’s legit as can be. I called him the darkhorse ages ago.

People are not comparing him to them as a prospect, but his current skillset in college (and I was very clear that I think AJ has a more developed offensive game than Tucker). We are all aware there is some boom potential, especially because he was much more explosive and dynamic in high school (or so it seemed). But there are two caveats: (a) the competition level was lower, so the athletic gap might be a lot more narrow that we would have expected, (b) the injuries actually should be a concern. I think (a) is the most real, but I still expect him to be a plus athlete, especially laterally where he is elite.

[SeattleJazzFan]

agree with the lewis comp. he's in love with the jumper and doesn't rebound. very skilled but soft.

having said that, he's so young - not sure it's fair or possible to make a judgment like that at this point - these guys can become entirely different players than what we're seeing right now.

where is this 'doesnt rebound' stuff coming from? he's averaging 8.4 boards per 36 despite playing the majority of his minutes on the perimeter on offense.

I also don’t think “he’s in love with the jumper” or soft when he does drive he looks to draw contact a lot more than Lewis did. Lewis is underrated but I think Smith has a lot more potential than a high level stretch four.

i agree that smith has more potential than lewis. but currently we are seeing a 6'10" guy who takes way too many jumpers. there is a reason he's shooting 44% FGs.

[DCasey91]

AJ Griffin will be the Patrick Williams of this draft and get drafted A LOT higher than people project.

Did people here not have records of AJ pre College? He was arguably the best guard/wing prospect in juniors with more of a rounded game than Hardy skillwise, it was injury woes that’s literally it. I laugh at the Okoro, Tucker, Williams comps. They were raw, AJ is not. There’s a real thing called class it’s written all over him.

He’s better facilitator than Keels too and that isn’t much of discussion either. It’s just that Coach K’s ego stifles youngsters proper development for winning. (See RJ and Zion mishandled now Banchero).

He’s legit as can be. I called him the darkhorse ages ago.

People are not comparing him to them as a prospect, but his current skillset in college (and I was very clear that I think AJ has a more developed offensive game than Tucker). We are all aware there is some boom potential, especially because he was much more explosive and dynamic in high school (or so it seemed). But there are two caveats: (a) the competition level was lower, so the athletic gap might be a lot more narrow that we would have expected, (b) the injuries actually should be a concern. I think (a) is the most real, but I still expect him to be a plus athlete, especially laterally where he is elite.

He’ll be fine at the next level. The injury concern part is valid but skillwise he’s top shelf. And as athleticism goes he’s a huge boy and basically a year younger so the growth is still well there. Looking at the guard/wing spots he’ll be a handful in due time don’t you worry about that.

He was the standout in juniors and much of it was very Butler esque (save for a better shot) with the way he operated on the court. The in between plays stood out like a sore thumb when all the top prospects then did the McDonald’s AA stuff.

It should be Banch, Moore, Griffin revolving as the offensive trio when Keels can’t shoot/can’t playmake at a decent clip.

Cavs went a year early but a Garland/Mobley/Griffin setup is very scary for the league imo.

[clyde21]

where is this 'doesnt rebound' stuff coming from? he's averaging 8.4 boards per 36 despite playing the majority of his minutes on the perimeter on offense.

I also don’t think “he’s in love with the jumper” or soft when he does drive he looks to draw contact a lot more than Lewis did. Lewis is underrated but I think Smith has a lot more potential than a high level stretch four.

i agree that smith has more potential than lewis. but currently we are seeing a 6'10" guy who takes way too many jumpers. there is a reason he's shooting 44% FGs.

the reason he's shooting 44% isn't because he 'shoots too many jumpers', it's because he shoots difficult shots, i.e. 20 foot turnarounds and 28 foot pull-ups

now, if you want to make an argument that he shouldn't be shooting those and should play more inside, that's fine, but then Jabari isn't really the guy for you anyways and you should probably be looking for a more traditional PF?

[azcatz11]

What happened to Michael Foster? He is he still a prospect?

[Duke4life831]

I have no problem with the amount of jumpers that Jabari takes. That is going to be his game, he's a finesse 4. The reason I have no problem with that because that jumper is smooth, nice high release on his 6'10 body, and he's not just a catch and shoot guy. That jumper looks the same when he's taking it off the dribble.

With that said the majority of the year Ive had Jabari #1, but I haven't been blown away with him in conference play. I think the gap between him and #2 is shrinking. One thing I will say is I do think his defense doesnt get as questioned as maybe it should. He's actually in a similar spot as Paolo and that is he gets to play alongside an elite defender. Paolo has Mark Williams who cleans up any mistakes and Jabari has Walker Kessler who does the same.

I still have Jabari over Paolo mainly because he looks every inch of 6'10 and that shooting stroke is great to watch. But ya its not as big of a gap as I had it a month ago. Then you throw in Sharpe, ya if things continue the way they're going I think we might have a pretty interesting top 3 race.

[Duke4life831]

Just a side note, but damn what a horrible mistake it was for Pat Baldwin to go play for his dad. I know he had the leg injury and then the ankle injury. But what a freaking horrible move there.

First of all when he did play, every defense just keyed in on him and he has no help with that team so he tried to do way too much and didnt have the skillset for it. Also people instantly forgot about him, hell I wouldnt even be shocked if half the people on this board didnt even know he's been out for close to a month with an ankle injury.

He needed to go to a team where he was surrounded with talent and just practically be a catch and shoot guy. I know he is only shooting 32% from 3, but again he would be getting far easier looks if he was playing on an actual good team like he could've been. I wont be shocked if he falls to the bottom of the 1st or even to the 2nd with the way this year has played out.

[Duke4life831]

Read on Twitter

Someone needs to walk me through the idea of Duren still being a top 5 pick. On the season he is 0-1 from 3, he is shooting 55% from the line (43% in conference so far). I know some people say he is a good passer, in his 15 games he has 18 assists to 29 turnovers. In conference play in a weak conference he is averaging 10/7/1 with 2 blocks on a 52 TS%.

I mean even if this guy was 7'1 and the runaway NDPOY I still wouldnt take him top 5 in this draft. He has no offensive skill foundation to build upon, he doesnt look close to his 6'11 listed height, I think he is much closer to 6'9. Either than being strong and fast, like what exactly does he bring to the game?

At the moment all Im seeing is a young Bismack Biyombo but without the overall defensive awareness that Biyombo had at this age and not quite as long.

[The Moose]

Read on Twitter

Someone needs to walk me through the idea of Duren still being a top 5 pick. On the season he is 0-1 from 3, he is shooting 55% from the line (43% in conference so far). I know some people say he is a good passer, in his 15 games he has 18 assists to 29 turnovers. In conference play in a weak conference he is averaging 10/7/1 with 2 blocks on a 52 TS%.

I mean even if this guy was 7'1 and the runaway NDPOY I still wouldnt take him top 5 in this draft. He has no offensive skill foundation to build upon, he doesnt look close to his 6'11 listed height, I think he is much closer to 6'9. Either than being strong and fast, like what exactly does he bring to the game?

At the moment all Im seeing is a young Bismack Biyombo but without the overall defensive awareness that Biyombo had at this age and not quite as long.

Boggles my mind too, so much so that I’m seriously wondering whether certain decisions are made with the idea that they will generate activity/comments on social media , whether they are positive or negative.
20 picks between Duren and Mark Williams ? I sure hope not.

I’m a big Tari Eason guy admittedly, but the fact that this mock has him pick 34 seems crazy to me as well

[Magic_Johnny12]

Read on Twitter

Someone needs to walk me through the idea of Duren still being a top 5 pick. On the season he is 0-1 from 3, he is shooting 55% from the line (43% in conference so far). I know some people say he is a good passer, in his 15 games he has 18 assists to 29 turnovers. In conference play in a weak conference he is averaging 10/7/1 with 2 blocks on a 52 TS%.

I mean even if this guy was 7'1 and the runaway NDPOY I still wouldnt take him top 5 in this draft. He has no offensive skill foundation to build upon, he doesnt look close to his 6'11 listed height, I think he is much closer to 6'9. Either than being strong and fast, like what exactly does he bring to the game?

At the moment all Im seeing is a young Bismack Biyombo but without the overall defensive awareness that Biyombo had at this age and not quite as long.

A lot of your same criticisms were said about a young Dwight

[CptCrunch]

What happened to Michael Foster? He is he still a prospect?

I think he is draftable second round. He isn't showing up on radars because his defense isn't great and his athleticism is lacking.
His counting stats are good in the G-League at this very young age. A stash for 2 year in G-League kind of player.

He has power though, 6'8" 250 lbs man body at age 19.

[azcatz11]

What happened to Michael Foster? He is he still a prospect?

I think he is draftable second round. He isn't showing up on radars because his defense isn't great and his athleticism is lacking.
His counting stats are good in the G-League at this very young age. A stash for 2 year in G-League kind of player.

He has power though, 6'8" 250 lbs man body at age 19.

Gotcha. He was such a beast in HS. I completely forgot about him. Thanks for the info

[Duke4life831]

Read on Twitter

Someone needs to walk me through the idea of Duren still being a top 5 pick. On the season he is 0-1 from 3, he is shooting 55% from the line (43% in conference so far). I know some people say he is a good passer, in his 15 games he has 18 assists to 29 turnovers. In conference play in a weak conference he is averaging 10/7/1 with 2 blocks on a 52 TS%.

I mean even if this guy was 7'1 and the runaway NDPOY I still wouldnt take him top 5 in this draft. He has no offensive skill foundation to build upon, he doesnt look close to his 6'11 listed height, I think he is much closer to 6'9. Either than being strong and fast, like what exactly does he bring to the game?

At the moment all Im seeing is a young Bismack Biyombo but without the overall defensive awareness that Biyombo had at this age and not quite as long.

A lot of your same criticisms were said about a young Dwight

Sure but at the same age Dwight was actually a good defensive player. Also Dwight’s 1st year after high school he was putting up 12/10 against NBA players. I’m sure if Dwight went and played in the AAC after high school, he wouldn’t put up 10/7 on 52 TS%.

Also Dwight was drafted 18 years ago. The game has drastically changed since then and how many guys have been drafted as raw athletic strict 5s in the top 10 since then have turned out to be great values?