2022 NBA Draft

[SeattleJazzFan]

I also don’t think “he’s in love with the jumper” or soft when he does drive he looks to draw contact a lot more than Lewis did. Lewis is underrated but I think Smith has a lot more potential than a high level stretch four.

i agree that smith has more potential than lewis. but currently we are seeing a 6'10" guy who takes way too many jumpers. there is a reason he's shooting 44% FGs.

the reason he's shooting 44% isn't because he 'shoots too many jumpers', it's because he shoots difficult shots, i.e. 20 foot turnarounds and 28 foot pull-ups

now, if you want to make an argument that he shouldn't be shooting those and should play more inside, that's fine, but then Jabari isn't really the guy for you anyways and you should probably be looking for a more traditional PF?

um, those shots you just described are jumpers. and he shoots too many of them. seems you understand the point i'm making. ftr, i'd probably take him #2 overall at this point and he'd still be in the conversation for #1 overall. but would i like to see him attack in the paint more? absolutely. he's also still ultra skilled and very young.

[retrobro90]

I'm honestly surprised I can't find one current mock draft that has Paolo #1. I feel like he's probably the most well rounded and possibly the safest bet despite Jabari's superior J. Already so set with an NBA body. I trust his playmaking (especially off a live dribble) more than Jabari or Chet imo. I think that upside is just so great if he's gonna be on the ball more than those other two. Mismatch nightmare with his size and ability to overpower.

[Big J]

Why can't Chet put up bigger numbers against these freaking terrible WCC teams? He should be posting 25, 12, & 5 every game.

[babyjax13]

Why can't Chet put up bigger numbers against these freaking terrible WCC teams? He should be posting 25, 12, & 5 every game.

I don't think he's that kind of player. He's more Myles Turner (but probably a bit better) than he is some kind of dominant post presence.

[DCasey91]

I'm honestly surprised I can't find one current mock draft that has Paolo #1. I feel like he's probably the most well rounded and possibly the safest bet despite Jabari's superior J. Already so set with an NBA body. I trust his playmaking (especially off a live dribble) more than Jabari or Chet imo. I think that upside is just so great if he's gonna be on the ball more than those other two. Mismatch nightmare with his size and ability to overpower.

It’s because his archetype (PF locked not a great shooter, defensive queries) isn’t conducive to top range impact in fact that said archetype is being errated out because it’s not and never will be the result your looking for.

I mean the literary is very sound. It’s a mistake to build around Anthony, Randle, Griffin those types because the offense and defense isn’t anywhere up to scratch holistically. It caps teams outputs. Randle was crap in the playoffs because he isn’t mobile enough to capitalize. Doesn’t help that RJ is basically in the same boat only wing position but same deal. Leaky, neither here nor there on offense/defense.

Then there’s Tatum, Brown and even at the very top in Leonard it brings inherit flaws (playmaking, getting others involved) that gets exposed a lot. Heck even a Durant led team has those same question marks. And that’s the best your looking at.

Chet, knees aside is a very good build around imo as a secondary ancillary option. he’s more nuanced not to mention the skill is a tad higher.

[retrobro90]

I'm honestly surprised I can't find one current mock draft that has Paolo #1. I feel like he's probably the most well rounded and possibly the safest bet despite Jabari's superior J. Already so set with an NBA body. I trust his playmaking (especially off a live dribble) more than Jabari or Chet imo. I think that upside is just so great if he's gonna be on the ball more than those other two. Mismatch nightmare with his size and ability to overpower.

It’s because his archetype (PF locked not a great shooter, defensive queries) isn’t conducive to top range impact in fact that said archetype is being errated out because it’s not and never will be the result your looking for.

I mean the literary is very sound. It’s a mistake to build around Anthony, Randle, Griffin those types because the offense and defense isn’t anywhere up to scratch holistically. It caps teams outputs. Randle was crap in the playoffs because he isn’t mobile enough to capitalize. Doesn’t help that RJ is basically in the same boat only wing position but same deal. Leaky, neither here nor there on offense/defense.

Then there’s Tatum, Brown and even at the very top in Leonard it brings inherit flaws (playmaking, getting others involved) that gets exposed a lot. Heck even a Durant led team has those same question marks. And that’s the best your looking at.

Chet, knees aside is a very good build around imo as a secondary ancillary option. he’s more nuanced not to mention the skill is a tad higher.

I understand your point as it concerns Randle/Melo/Griffin and that those 3 dudes specifically can't be given the type of Doncic/Harden/Lebron level license to be the heliocentric focal point of a team's offense (though I would say Melo COULD have had much more success with a better/healthy supporting cast). That much I agree with and I think it's wise to at least make note of players like that when scouting/team building. But I have to just look at what Paolo's bringing to the table from a ready made talent perspective. I can't help but notice there's more theoretical evidence to Chet's translatability whereas I can empirically witness Paolo bulldozing Chet and putting him in the basket. Any team has to be extremely lucky to find someone talented enough to trust with the ball AND have it translate to wins at the highest level. All these guys are gonna have flaws. As you say even guys like Kawhi/KD have holes in their game but they're also 2 of the best of their generation with multiple championships attached to their names so I don't see why that should deter me from drafting someone like Paolo.

[The Moose]

Why can't Chet put up bigger numbers against these freaking terrible WCC teams? He should be posting 25, 12, & 5 every game.

people are still complaining about Chet's 'lack' of numbers?

In terms of advanced stats, he's rating out as absolutely elite for a freshman big man. Here is the entire list of freshman bigs (players who are 6'7"+) since 2008 to be putting BPM, OBPM and DBPM similar to Chet.

As you can see Chet holds his own against anyone on this list, he's 3rd in BPM, 3rd in OBPM, 3rd in DBPM, 3rd in O-RTG, 3rd in D-RTG, 1st in TS%, 2nd in DREB %, 2nd in BLK % (while being 4th lowest in fouls/40mins) and then throw in 40% from 3 on decent volume.

If we raise the standards even higher we get this list


Look, I think its fine to debate whether Chet's game can translate to the NBA level, but I can't understand people who are complaining that Chet isn't putting up scoring numbers on the raw box score. That's not Chet's game and it's not what his game projects to be at the next level

[DCasey91]

I'm honestly surprised I can't find one current mock draft that has Paolo #1. I feel like he's probably the most well rounded and possibly the safest bet despite Jabari's superior J. Already so set with an NBA body. I trust his playmaking (especially off a live dribble) more than Jabari or Chet imo. I think that upside is just so great if he's gonna be on the ball more than those other two. Mismatch nightmare with his size and ability to overpower.

It’s because his archetype (PF locked not a great shooter, defensive queries) isn’t conducive to top range impact in fact that said archetype is being errated out because it’s not and never will be the result your looking for.

I mean the literary is very sound. It’s a mistake to build around Anthony, Randle, Griffin those types because the offense and defense isn’t anywhere up to scratch holistically. It caps teams outputs. Randle was crap in the playoffs because he isn’t mobile enough to capitalize. Doesn’t help that RJ is basically in the same boat only wing position but same deal. Leaky, neither here nor there on offense/defense.

Then there’s Tatum, Brown and even at the very top in Leonard it brings inherit flaws (playmaking, getting others involved) that gets exposed a lot. Heck even a Durant led team has those same question marks. And that’s the best your looking at.

Chet, knees aside is a very good build around imo as a secondary ancillary option. he’s more nuanced not to mention the skill is a tad higher.

I understand your point as it concerns Randle/Melo/Griffin and that those 3 dudes specifically can't be given the type of Doncic/Harden/Lebron level license to be the heliocentric focal point of a team's offense (though I would say Melo COULD have had much more success with a better/healthy supporting cast). That much I agree with and I think it's wise to at least make note of players like that when scouting/team building. But I have to just look at what Paolo's bringing to the table from a ready made talent perspective. I can't help but notice there's more theoretical evidence to Chet's translatability whereas I can empirically witness Paolo bulldozing Chet and putting him in the basket. Any team has to be extremely lucky to find someone talented enough to trust with the ball AND have it translate to wins at the highest level. All these guys are gonna have flaws. As you say even guys like Kawhi/KD have holes in their game but they're also 2 of the best of their generation with multiple championships attached to their names so I don't see why that should deter me from drafting someone like Paolo.

Not as a deterrent but the evidence is there. Banchero was my favorite coming into it but personally it’s not drafting for whose the best right now (which is a general mistake in draft laden sports) it’s whose the best when all said and done years from now.

Now spots picked later on is completely hindsight and out of the box say Giannis or Leonard picked later or rarer say Jokic and baseball/nfl it’s completely airballs crapshoot lol.

But when it comes to top top picks (1 through to 5) it’s identifying who really will be the best player. I think it’ll be Chet. Yes he’s a riskier pick but skillwise he’s always been number one and there’s nothing theoretical about it. Say Porzingis + or Ingram + is worth a number one pick prospect.

Smith Jr doesn’t have the full gambit currently (should I say it’s not currently the whole works from what I see)
Banchero has positional value caps
Chet it’s physical prowess

All three have their plus minuses and there is also a very real chance that the best player won’t be any of the three. Also the way basketball is played today most likely will have a factor into it as well.

[Big J]

Why can't Chet put up bigger numbers against these freaking terrible WCC teams? He should be posting 25, 12, & 5 every game.

people are still complaining about Chet's 'lack' of numbers?

In terms of advanced stats, he's rating out as absolutely elite for a freshman big man. Here is the entire list of freshman bigs (players who are 6'7"+) since 2008 to be putting BPM, OBPM and DBPM similar to Chet.

As you can see Chet holds his own against anyone on this list, he's 3rd in BPM, 3rd in OBPM, 3rd in DBPM, 3rd in O-RTG, 3rd in D-RTG, 1st in TS%, 2nd in DREB %, 2nd in BLK % (while being 4th lowest in fouls/40mins) and then throw in 40% from 3 on decent volume.

If we raise the standards even higher we get this list


Look, I think its fine to debate whether Chet's game can translate to the NBA level, but I can't understand people who are complaining that Chet isn't putting up scoring numbers on the raw box score. That's not Chet's game and it's not what his game projects to be at the next level

I think he'll be fine. He's Porzingis with a better handle. The lack of alpha mentality however, is concerning. You can throw out all of the advanced stats you want, but using the eye test and seeing him struggle to dominate tiny unathletic white guys on mid major teams just doesn't scream, THAT GUY!

[retrobro90]

It’s because his archetype (PF locked not a great shooter, defensive queries) isn’t conducive to top range impact in fact that said archetype is being errated out because it’s not and never will be the result your looking for.

I mean the literary is very sound. It’s a mistake to build around Anthony, Randle, Griffin those types because the offense and defense isn’t anywhere up to scratch holistically. It caps teams outputs. Randle was crap in the playoffs because he isn’t mobile enough to capitalize. Doesn’t help that RJ is basically in the same boat only wing position but same deal. Leaky, neither here nor there on offense/defense.

Then there’s Tatum, Brown and even at the very top in Leonard it brings inherit flaws (playmaking, getting others involved) that gets exposed a lot. Heck even a Durant led team has those same question marks. And that’s the best your looking at.

Chet, knees aside is a very good build around imo as a secondary ancillary option. he’s more nuanced not to mention the skill is a tad higher.

I understand your point as it concerns Randle/Melo/Griffin and that those 3 dudes specifically can't be given the type of Doncic/Harden/Lebron level license to be the heliocentric focal point of a team's offense (though I would say Melo COULD have had much more success with a better/healthy supporting cast). That much I agree with and I think it's wise to at least make note of players like that when scouting/team building. But I have to just look at what Paolo's bringing to the table from a ready made talent perspective. I can't help but notice there's more theoretical evidence to Chet's translatability whereas I can empirically witness Paolo bulldozing Chet and putting him in the basket. Any team has to be extremely lucky to find someone talented enough to trust with the ball AND have it translate to wins at the highest level. All these guys are gonna have flaws. As you say even guys like Kawhi/KD have holes in their game but they're also 2 of the best of their generation with multiple championships attached to their names so I don't see why that should deter me from drafting someone like Paolo.

Not as a deterrent but the evidence is there. Banchero was my favorite coming into it but personally it’s not drafting for whose the best right now (which is a general mistake in draft laden sports) it’s whose the best when all said and done years from now.

Now spots picked later on is completely hindsight and out of the box say Giannis or Leonard picked later or rarer say Jokic and baseball/nfl it’s completely airballs crapshoot lol.

But when it comes to top top picks (1 through to 5) it’s identifying who really will be the best player. I think it’ll be Chet. Yes he’s a riskier pick but skillwise he’s always been number one and there’s nothing theoretical about it. Say Porzingis + or Ingram + is worth a number one pick prospect.

Smith Jr doesn’t have the full gambit currently (should I say it’s not currently the whole works from what I see)
Banchero has positional value caps
Chet it’s physical prowess

All three have their plus minuses and there is also a very real chance that the best player won’t be any of the three. Also the way basketball is played today most likely will have a factor into it as well.

I agree with all your points here but I don't think Chet having the skill edge is as concrete as you may be positing. He for sure has capabilities others don't thanks to his length and height. His J is also nicer and more consistent than Paolo's but I really trust Paolo's dribble and his passing on the move more than Chet's. I think he's also got a deeper bag when it comes to his footwork and ability to play out of triple threat. I think their nba2k skill sliders would be similar/close in totality but spread across different areas.

Overall it just kinda comes down to individual evaluations and I think both are worthy of going in the top 3. Originally I was just more surprised that out of all the major sports media folk I couldn't find one mock that had Paolo #1 when in my view there's nothing that he's done to take himself out of that convo.

[DCasey91]

Yes but what works in College may or may not transfer to the real thing. I see Chet being an applicable + defender and + offensive player at the next level.

The dribble and passing stuff is kind of nought to me when you take into consideration size and positional play when others would take more of a brunt on the role. Also Chet is as good of a passer/distributor as Banchero it’s basically the same skill level to me.

A classic example is Tobias Harris who does average 20 ppg let’s say but brings in very minimal impact game to game. As tank commanders go he’s a very high pick lol

Advanced stats love Chet and it’s pretty clear to see the effect he has on a game to game basis stats aside. His length, shot blocking ability and just overall nuance on the game is higher than Smith’s or Banchero’s but Smith is obv coming from further back with nice trajectory indicators.

Also Porzingis when paired up with quality floor play actually does bring very very good win % results when fit and healthy even with a flawed team and Luka’s own inherit work ethic/shooting issues. That’s the blueprint and it’s pretty sound. Chet is shorter btw.

Both would 100% need a quality guard in the form of Lowry or say a young Garland to get the best out of them.

[mattao313]

Chet doesn't remind me of porzingis play style wise. Porzingis loves jumpers and plays probably closer to jabari Smith than Chet. Chet plays more like a traditional big that can also hit a 3.

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[The Moose]

Chet doing Chet things again so far today, 21pts 8rebs, 3blks, 1foul, 7-8 fg (3-3 3pt, 4-5ft)

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[Upperclass]

Chet is tougher than most slim bigmen in the league and many of the beefier ones. Its clear he's being coached to not force it and he isnt; he's also being coached by a medicore coach

[DCasey91]

Chet could very much be the Mobley of this draft, not picked at one but should have been. I do rate Chet a tad more on offense and obv Mobley better on defense.

[zimpy27]

Nice to see a discussion on Chet. I still have him top 3.

I think he is a unique big that can create mismatches with his size and skill. I think an NBA coach is going to be able to use him in a really creative way. Probably build up his playmaking and create a Marc Gasol type. He feels like the he's going to go 3 like Mobley and possibly ends up being the obvious best in the NBA like Mobley.

[CP War Hawks]

Someone rank these 7 footers/centers:

Orlando Robinson
Ibou Dianko Badji
Walker Kessler
YANNICK NZOSA
Jalen Duren
Ismael Kamagate
Mark Williams
Zach Edey
Christian Koloko
John Butler
Khalifa Diop

[NO-KG-AI]

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Someone needs to walk me through the idea of Duren still being a top 5 pick. On the season he is 0-1 from 3, he is shooting 55% from the line (43% in conference so far). I know some people say he is a good passer, in his 15 games he has 18 assists to 29 turnovers. In conference play in a weak conference he is averaging 10/7/1 with 2 blocks on a 52 TS%.

I mean even if this guy was 7'1 and the runaway NDPOY I still wouldnt take him top 5 in this draft. He has no offensive skill foundation to build upon, he doesnt look close to his 6'11 listed height, I think he is much closer to 6'9. Either than being strong and fast, like what exactly does he bring to the game?

At the moment all Im seeing is a young Bismack Biyombo but without the overall defensive awareness that Biyombo had at this age and not quite as long.

A lot of your same criticisms were said about a young Dwight

Sure but at the same age Dwight was actually a good defensive player. Also Dwight’s 1st year after high school he was putting up 12/10 against NBA players. I’m sure if Dwight went and played in the AAC after high school, he wouldn’t put up 10/7 on 52 TS%.

Also Dwight was drafted 18 years ago. The game has drastically changed since then and how many guys have been drafted as raw athletic strict 5s in the top 10 since then have turned out to be great values?

Eh, most of that stuff wasn't said about Dwight anyway. Dwight was projected as much at the 4 as a KG type. Talk of his ball skills and his early years as a guard were very much always a topic. He was talked about in a similar manner to AD(though he wasn't as hyped as Anthony).

The projection of Dwight changed after a massive amount of muscle gain post draft and him becoming much more of a power player. Check NBAdraft.net, draft express, scout.com.. I can't think of a scouting site that didn't have Dwight as a versatile and multi faceted offensive big in the lower levels lol.

Duren's scouting reports and video play much like a less dominant version of rookie Dwight IMO. I can't see him ever being the kind of physical force that can get 20 ppg on 60% shooting and draw 10+ fouls a game on brute strength and explosion alone.

[NYPiston]

I have no problem with the amount of jumpers that Jabari takes. That is going to be his game, he's a finesse 4. The reason I have no problem with that because that jumper is smooth, nice high release on his 6'10 body, and he's not just a catch and shoot guy. That jumper looks the same when he's taking it off the dribble.

With that said the majority of the year Ive had Jabari #1, but I haven't been blown away with him in conference play. I think the gap between him and #2 is shrinking. One thing I will say is I do think his defense doesnt get as questioned as maybe it should. He's actually in a similar spot as Paolo and that is he gets to play alongside an elite defender. Paolo has Mark Williams who cleans up any mistakes and Jabari has Walker Kessler who does the same.

I still have Jabari over Paolo mainly because he looks every inch of 6'10 and that shooting stroke is great to watch. But ya its not as big of a gap as I had it a month ago. Then you throw in Sharpe, ya if things continue the way they're going I think we might have a pretty interesting top 3 race.

Chet should absolutely be in that top 3 race and Ivey very closely behind.

I guess Sharpe can get thrown in there by default based purely on talent but people are starting to sleep on Chet. If he was even 10-15 lbs heavier, he'd be getting Mobley comps. Not exactly the same type of player but Chet's defensive impact is real and even in that thin frame will be a big factor at the next level. Add in the 3 point shot and his ability to handle the ball and that's a pretty complete prospect. Raw no doubt but loads of growth potential especially if he can beef up that frame a bit.

[EvanZ]

Duren still being at 4 is kind of wild.