Chet Holmgren - Gonzaga

[yoyoboy]

DPOY type impact? I don’t know how people can project that for Chet after watching him this year. His instincts and awareness aren’t anything special. He doesn’t look like a guy who will be able to contain guards on switches. He’s going to get dislodged by physicality in the paint because of his frame. He’s a great shot blocker but that’s it imo.

[Magic_Johnny12]

i loved chet coming out of hs and saw him as a future #1 overall, but he's been exposed a bit in cbb. i think he's going to struggle as a scorer in the league. he'll spot up from three and he'll block some shots, but otherwise with his slight build - and honestly a body type that won't allow him to put on much weight, he's going to struggle a bit offensively.

Anyone who expected Chet to be a great or even good scorer was looking at his traits the wrong way. He just isnt aggressive or selfish enough to be an elite scorer. What he can be is an elite 2nd option who gives you transformative defensive, rarely plays 'pound the ball', makes the right / unselfish decisions, hits the open 3 and gets buckets on cuts.

He is still a special prospect, but more of a supercharged PF version of Myles Turner than the next Dirk.

I think 18-20ppg / 8-10rpg / 2.5-3.5apg / 2.5-3bpg with elite advanced metrics and the type of play that just helps teams win is what to expect.

He is the absolute perfect prospect for my team, the Blazers, given our surplus of scoring and lack of defense and unselfish play.

So he's not Dirk BUT he'll be a better version of current Anthony Davis and rival bigs like KAT?

Just a friendly reminder Giannis was 190lbs soaking wet coming into the league. I'm not saying Chet possesses the drive and determination or even a frame as a Giannis, but it's not farfetched to predict Chet will be able to gain weight and be able to play the 4 effectively.

Even Porzingis that Chet is compared to a lot also was a twig and put on a ton of muscle.

If I'm a betting man I think my team (Orlando) drafts him with the #1 without any hesitation.

[NRSV]

DPOY type impact? I don’t know how people can project that for Chet after watching him this year. His instincts and awareness aren’t anything special. He doesn’t look like a guy who will be able to contain guards on switches. He’s going to get dislodged by physicality in the paint because of his frame. He’s a great shot blocker but that’s it imo.

He’s no Mobley. that’s for sure

[DroseReturnChi]

Flooring is ak 47?

I know Im not the highest on Chet, but this seems unbelievably high expectations for him. He isnt nearly as athletic as AK47. AK47 was a long athletic 6'9 wing who could pretty much guard everyone 1-4. Chet hasnt shown anywhere near the kind of athleticism to be as versatile of a defender as AK47 was.

chet has the height. ak47 is a solid comparison. only chet doubters are using frame excuse plenty of thin frame has succeeded.

[namlede]

agreed, yes Chet is rain thin, but I actually think that speaks to his toughness and champion attitude that is willing to bang In the post and is not afraid of much bigger guys.

too many bigs are soft as feathers, and here comes a guy who is tough as nails. having that type of mentality is very important for big men imo.

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[spree8]

Flooring is ak 47?

I know Im not the highest on Chet, but this seems unbelievably high expectations for him. He isnt nearly as athletic as AK47. AK47 was a long athletic 6'9 wing who could pretty much guard everyone 1-4. Chet hasnt shown anywhere near the kind of athleticism to be as versatile of a defender as AK47 was.

chet has the height. ak47 is a solid comparison. only chet doubters are using frame excuse plenty of thin frame has succeeded.

Maybe an AK47/KP hybrid. He’s not as athletic, quick, or mobile as AK was to guard perimeter guys full time.

[nicnac215]

I know Im not the highest on Chet, but this seems unbelievably high expectations for him. He isnt nearly as athletic as AK47. AK47 was a long athletic 6'9 wing who could pretty much guard everyone 1-4. Chet hasnt shown anywhere near the kind of athleticism to be as versatile of a defender as AK47 was.

chet has the height. ak47 is a solid comparison. only chet doubters are using frame excuse plenty of thin frame has succeeded.

Maybe an AK47/KP hybrid. He’s not as athletic, quick, or mobile as AK was to guard perimeter guys full time.

I see a weaker Giannis with a shot. He plays hard, bangs, can dribble the ball up the court and hit the open man. I’ve seen him steal the ball before half court, take one dribble then dunk it. That’s something Giannis does.

[basketballRob]

Do you think Chet forces his way to Orlando?

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[BoutPractice]

I still find it puzzling that people started to doubt him once they saw him in college... even though he showed an Anthony Davis type impact almost right away as a freshman, with a very similar statistical profile.

It's as if they've "discovered" that he's skinny. He was skinny before too, skinnier even.

Lack of weight in my opinion is one of the least relevant factors for analyzing a prospect. Guys who were claimed to be too skinny include most stars you can think of. Young KG was as thin as you can be. Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo, 3 of the biggest outlier superstars you can think of, had a stick-like body in their early years. Last year's draft had Evan Mobley who was facing similar criticism, and he seems to be headed for a great career too.

Most relevant factors, in my opinion? 1) Outlier attributes that give you a possible competitive advantage at the highest level and 2) mental toughness and drive. Chet definitely has 1). I don't know enough about 2), but he a least seems to compete hard, doesn't shy away from contact, he loves the game, there seem to be mostly good signs on that front.

Maybe he bombs, I don't deny the possibility at all. But there's also a chance the team that second guesses him based on weight alone ends up passing on the next AD...

[GSWFan1994]

I find it strange he rarely gets talked about in this board. Seems like he needs to have a signature game, a standout performance, I dunno.

That being said, the comparison to Porzingis/AK47 is valid, as is the argument about his lack of weight compared to Durant's, Giannis' and others' trajectory.

I'm still on the fence regarding Chet. I like him as a player and I definitely appreciate that he plays very hard (that's a very underrated factor for not busting out, at least), but I still can't figure it out if he has a definitive path to superstardom.

[The-Power]

I still find it puzzling that people started to doubt him once they saw him in college... even though he showed an Anthony Davis type impact almost right away as a freshman, with a very similar statistical profile.

It's as if they've "discovered" that he's skinny. He was skinny before too, skinnier even.

Lack of weight in my opinion is one of the least relevant factors for analyzing a prospect. Guys who were claimed to be too skinny include most stars you can think of. Young KG was as thin as you can be. Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo, 3 of the biggest outlier superstars you can think of, had a stick-like body in their early years. Last year's draft had Evan Mobley who was facing similar criticism, and he seems to be headed for a great career too.

Who has ‘started to doubt him once they saw him in college’ and was previously unconcerned about him being skinny? Are you sure you're not arguing a straw man here?

Also, and this has been mentioned many times by now: the issue is not him being skinny per se, it's his frame that causes concern. This is also why your body comparisons above don't hold up because guys like AD, KG or Giannis always had frames that they could easily fill out.

He is playing really well, though. Especially his shooting numbers are promising. I'm not sure where I'll end up with him but the frame is a concern that cannot be just wished away. He's going to be a difficult one to evaluate right up until the end.

[DCasey91]

Chet’s frame the only concern is from the knees down, waist up is actually fine. Last thing you want is to be top heavy for zero reason, Zingis did that and can’t play for any stretch of time. They have similar frames, Zingis worked out in the wrong area. Some sportsmen can’t afford to hold extra unnecessary weight. Giannis will probably get more knee issues as the years go on.

Take Conor for example, is a hypocrite on to himself talking about being nimble. At lightweight he’s actually mediocre but at feather dude was all time potential. His frame allowed him to be a big feather but certainly not a lightweight because he’s always had tank issues and a taxing fight style. His last say 4 fights I reckon he was well over 15 pounds too large.

I hope Chet takes up swimming for a long time. Adds a bunch stamina and for core/leg strength and it’ll be fine, much better for a 7ft guy, less joint concerns too vs lifting heavy.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

I think the most obvious thing is to play him at the 4 next to some kind of bruising C to protect him till his body starts to fill out as he gets older. He's extremely talented though, if you have the right people around him you could probably play him at the 3 in a jumbo lineup like the Cavs do with Markananen.

[Big J]

How is his post game? Is he able to post up against the tiny guys he's playing against in the mid majors, or is he like Porzingis in that regard?

[whitehops]

i'm surprised by a lot of the player comps i see of chet, both on this forum and elsewhere online.

to me gobert seems almost perfect with chet having the potential to be a better passer/shooter down the road. obviously chet's frame/how he handles contact will be the biggest hurdle for him but otherwise his blend of size (reach), mobility and IQ defending the paint are gobert-like.

[basketballRob]

i'm surprised by a lot of the player comps i see of chet, both on this forum and elsewhere online.

to me gobert seems almost perfect with chet having the potential to be a better passer/shooter down the road. obviously chet's frame/how he handles contact will be the biggest hurdle for him but otherwise his blend of size (reach), mobility and IQ defending the paint are gobert-like.

I think he's closer to Mobley than Gobert. He doesn't have the size of a Gobert and has more of a perimeter game.

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[DCasey91]

I think Chet is very much like Porzingis but with more nuance and better mobility and shorter which is beneficial in regards to injury concerns which is very valid. Like a 20/8/3/2 block guy isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

He’s had poor catch & shoot numbers so far but the trail 3 shooting has been encouraging. His post defense has been awesome, shot blocking skill and length does the trick. He’s 7ft so just rise up and shoot/layup/midrange that’s it and use the length when he gets to his spot, very fundamental but it’s best policy no fancy stuff.

Zingis sucks at establishing inside elbow/post position (lack of identification, lack of ability to put the ball on the floor, too top heavy allowing smaller players to easily push him out of the sweet spot, too shot happy), so hopefully Chet overall will be better in that department.

Doesn’t mind contact at all, and likes to go at it but it’s a strength thing obviously. Mobley does have a better frame and that’s obvious too.

I don’t think he’s like Mobley either. Chet has a very nice first step but Mobley or Mobility moves around the court effortlessly like not even trying, also his positional awareness and skill on defense is higher than Chet’s is. Chet can get jumpy when contesting shots. Like I don’t see Chet guarding 1-5 whereas Mobley has already done that without much trouble. He did the triangle and contested 3 players in a matter of seconds and you’d swear he barely got out of a jog and that was inside ten games played for his career lol, that take years of proper coaching to be that sound on defense.

Mobley is going to quarterback suffocating team defense for the next decade plus perennial DPOY contender.

Anyway as with Banch you are going to need a class guard to get the best out of them.

[Big J]

He seems like he'll be a Zingis with a better handle, which is nothing to sneeze at. I do think that he will have the same issues as Gobert with guarding guys on the perimeter on switches.

[hippesthippo]

Chet’s frame the only concern is from the knees down, waist up is actually fine. Last thing you want is to be top heavy for zero reason, Zingis did that and can’t play for any stretch of time. They have similar frames, Zingis worked out in the wrong area. Some sportsmen can’t afford to hold extra unnecessary weight. Giannis will probably get more knee issues as the years go on.

Take Conor for example, is a hypocrite on to himself talking about being nimble. At lightweight he’s actually mediocre but at feather dude was all time potential. His frame allowed him to be a big feather but certainly not a lightweight because he’s always had tank issues and a taxing fight style. His last say 4 fights I reckon he was well over 15 pounds too large.

I hope Chet takes up swimming for a long time. Adds a bunch stamina and for core/leg strength and it’ll be fine, much better for a 7ft guy, less joint concerns too vs lifting heavy.

It's crazy. Most ball players don't realize it, but if they were to swim instead of hoop the top players be would uber elite all-time swimmers. Same ideal body type.

[DCasey91]

Haha yeah some are just made to swim. Tim Duncan was apparently very good. They should all take it up for stamina/recovery/strength, so much less wear and tear in the end.