Bradley Beal - Part III

[NatP4]

A lottery pick and a young prospect would be a home run.

I would probably trade Beal straight up to Portland for their 9th overall pick or even to Memphis for all 3 of their 1sts.

The wizards won’t trade Beal though. They think this mediocre pile of **** roster is a piece away or something.

[doclinkin]

I don't get this notion of not wanting to pay a #2 the max, or assuming that the only way to build a contender is to "save" your max slot for a "true #1." How many #2s take sub-max deals? Most #2s on contenders get max money. And, multiple teams have become contenders by retaining a #2 and getting their #1 guy later.

The only #2s on contenders who wouldn't getting max money on the open market that I can think are Holiday and Murray.

So, as frustrating as Beal is, if we think he's a #2, we should keep him. Is he any worse than Paul Pierce was pre-KG/Ray Allen? Or Devin Booker before CP3 came along? Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker were known as talented but low-IQ players. Booker was a shot-jacker and stat padder who did stupid stuff like run up the score to get to 70.

If you have a star, you do what you can to keep him. Then, you look for opportunities to add another piece. You find a distressed star; you get lucky in the draft; etc. But it's not as if we'd be overpaying to keep a true #2.

Now, if the theory is that Beal has fallen off to the point where he can't even be a #2. Let's say he's injured, or the league rules have relegated him to Tobias Harris-level, or he's got long COVID. If he's entered the Blake Griffin in Detroit stage of his career, then that's a different story. But if we project him to be a legit #2, then we keep him.

Could not agree more. Beal of the last 3 years is a true #2 on a contender and you can contend with him at the max so long as he is complemented by a true 1.
I simply can buy that Beal has fallen off. He's healthy, skilled, under 30, and has a great work ethic. There is no precedent for this, so we can assume he will bounce back. Whether or not we can attain another piece and surround both players with youth and cheap vet talent seems to doubtful.

My question is: How is Beal as a GM?

Because if you sign him at the Max or super-max, he has already stated how he expects the team will build around him, and the team has already shown the inclination to give Beal significant input on team decisions. That said I don't expect to see him take less than the Maximum amount we can offer to stay here. If another team offers him even close to equivalent money, and he perceives them as a winner, then I'd expect him to jump. It's not like Beal as co-GM is likely to take short money just to build a better team around him. So he better be damn good at recruiting players to play next to him, or evaluating talent, or leading and developing young talent coming up behind him. Because he is trending towards having more say over the team's future than the titular GM. A greater effect than his play. And he better be willing to take the co-pilot chair next to a player who scores more efficiently. Leads to the original question:

Is Beal a solid #2?

To me? No. Not if he can't hit a 3. Or score through contact.

The rules changes have made it so even Steph Curry is hitting the worst 3FG% of his career. This is no longer the age of the undersized combo guard. And Beal has suffered more than others. He also is shooting the worst % in his career from outside. Worse, Beal's free throw rate has dropped. The only area he has improved in is passing. And he better pass because you don't want him taking that shot. By most efficiency measures Beal suffers in comparison to the league. eFG%: Beal is the 154th most efficient player in the league; True Shooting %: the 125th most efficient gunner in the league.

These sorts of changes are not "unprecedented" though. When there are rules changes (or re-emphasis) certain players will suffer or benefit. If you look at 3fg%'s historically, they jumped upwards when the line was moved closer, and the no-hand check rule was re-emphasized beginning in 1995. Then again in 2005 when it was strictly forbidden. Smaller guards, or finesse forwards who used to be called 'tweeners' suddenly found outsized roles on teams. Big slow giants no longer could stay on the floor trying to chase around the perimeter.

Then this year happened and once again new rules emphasis has radically altered the game. In fact the NBA is shooting the worst % from 3 since 2004. The fewest FT's/FGA ever. Ever ever. Oh wait: since the league was established in 1946. That first year they whistled fewer fouls than this year. Never again since.

Can Beal adjust? Yes. Sure. He works hard, he is smart, maybe he puzzles out a new wrinkle. But his game the past couple years saw an uptick in free throws and fouls forced on opponents. WIthout that in his arsenal, and with teams able to guard him tight on the outside, he is a decent if undersized mid-range gunner with an okay handle. He's no Kyrie with the ball. He is aiight, nothing special on the drive. So unless the league realizes they like the Trey Young and Stef Curry sized players to play giant killers, and tweaks the rules again, then a guy like Beal will have less of an easy time scoring. Nowadays the player you want is the guy who can finish through contact. We will likely see a trend back towards bigger taller tougher wing players. And yeah okay, mid-range shooters who can find the cracks between the defense. (A big midrange wing guard like DeRozan should feast. And how is Kawhi doing? Oh yeah: the 2nd most efficient year of his career).

It's a new world. Teams better recognize. I suspect we are trending towards scoring bigs. Ball handling Bigs who can shoot over the defense. A guy like Kuzma could be poised to take advantage, as a ball handling big Wing who can score inside and out. A bit more muscle, a slightly tighter handle or better outside shot and he would rise swiftly to the attention of opposing scouts. Masai has figured it out in advance as usual. His entire team is a mob of 6'9" guys who can handle and play defense.

If the Wizards could develop the talent they have we would be poised to take advantage. Kuz, Rui, Deni -- all are Tall forwards with outside-in perimeter skills. What is Beal's role on a team like that? Pass the ball to the open guy, move off the ball with sharp cuts and smart reads. And really, stop whining to the refs. They're not gonna call it. Get over it. The world has changed. You either evolve quickly or get passed by the Next New Thing.

[nate33]

If you guys did move Beal this deadline, what would be your ideal return? Simmons+2022 1st? Brown? A robust pick package and maybe young prospect?

I'd want at least 1 guy with star potential.
Simmons + 1st works. Jaylen Brown works. "A robust pick package" would have to include a fairly high lotto pick, top 7 or so.

Ultimately, I think the teams that will value Beal most are those in win-now position with some desperation to get that final piece to put them over the top. The no-brainer scenario is Beal for Simmons plus a little extra stuff. Simmons can either be retained and showcased in an effort to boost his trade value (or even to keep for the long term), or maybe he can be flipped as part of a 3-way to a team that would give up high picks.

[nate33]

Spoiler:

I don't get this notion of not wanting to pay a #2 the max, or assuming that the only way to build a contender is to "save" your max slot for a "true #1." How many #2s take sub-max deals? Most #2s on contenders get max money. And, multiple teams have become contenders by retaining a #2 and getting their #1 guy later.

The only #2s on contenders who wouldn't getting max money on the open market that I can think are Holiday and Murray.

So, as frustrating as Beal is, if we think he's a #2, we should keep him. Is he any worse than Paul Pierce was pre-KG/Ray Allen? Or Devin Booker before CP3 came along? Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker were known as talented but low-IQ players. Booker was a shot-jacker and stat padder who did stupid stuff like run up the score to get to 70.

If you have a star, you do what you can to keep him. Then, you look for opportunities to add another piece. You find a distressed star; you get lucky in the draft; etc. But it's not as if we'd be overpaying to keep a true #2.

Now, if the theory is that Beal has fallen off to the point where he can't even be a #2. Let's say he's injured, or the league rules have relegated him to Tobias Harris-level, or he's got long COVID. If he's entered the Blake Griffin in Detroit stage of his career, then that's a different story. But if we project him to be a legit #2, then we keep him.

Could not agree more. Beal of the last 3 years is a true #2 on a contender and you can contend with him at the max so long as he is complemented by a true 1.
I simply can buy that Beal has fallen off. He's healthy, skilled, under 30, and has a great work ethic. There is no precedent for this, so we can assume he will bounce back. Whether or not we can attain another piece and surround both players with youth and cheap vet talent seems to doubtful.

My question is: How is Beal as a GM?

Because if you sign him at the Max or super-max, he has already stated how he expects the team will build around him, and the team has already shown the inclination to give Beal significant input on team decisions. That said I don't expect to see him take less than the Maximum amount we can offer to stay here. If another team offers him even close to equivalent money, and he perceives them as a winner, then I'd expect him to jump. It's not like Beal as co-GM is likely to take short money just to build a better team around him. So he better be damn good at recruiting players to play next to him, or evaluating talent, or leading and developing young talent coming up behind him. Because he is trending towards having more say over the team's future than the titular GM. A greater effect than his play. And he better be willing to take the co-pilot chair next to a player who scores more efficiently. Leads to the original question:

Is Beal a solid #2?

To me? No. Not if he can't hit a 3. Or score through contact.

The rules changes have made it so even Steph Curry is hitting the worst 3FG% of his career. This is no longer the age of the undersized combo guard. And Beal has suffered more than others. He also is shooting the worst % in his career from outside. Worse, Beal's free throw rate has dropped. The only area he has improved in is passing. And he better pass because you don't want him taking that shot. By most efficiency measures Beal suffers in comparison to the league. eFG%: Beal is the 154th most efficient player in the league; True Shooting %: the 125th most efficient gunner in the league.

These sorts of changes are not "unprecedented" though. When there are rules changes (or re-emphasis) certain players will suffer or benefit. If you look at 3fg%'s historically, they jumped upwards when the line was moved closer, and the no-hand check rule was re-emphasized beginning in 1995. Then again in 2005 when it was strictly forbidden. Smaller guards, or finesse forwards who used to be called 'tweeners' suddenly found outsized roles on teams. Big slow giants no longer could stay on the floor trying to chase around the perimeter.

Then this year happened and once again new rules emphasis has radically altered the game. In fact the NBA is shooting the worst % from 3 since 2004. The fewest FT's/FGA ever. Ever ever. Oh wait: since the league was established in 1946. That first year they whistled fewer fouls than this year. Never again since.

Can Beal adjust? Yes. Sure. He works hard, he is smart, maybe he puzzles out a new wrinkle. But his game the past couple years saw an uptick in free throws and fouls forced on opponents. WIthout that in his arsenal, and with teams able to guard him tight on the outside, he is a decent if undersized mid-range gunner with an okay handle. He's no Kyrie with the ball. He is aiight, nothing special on the drive. So unless the league realizes they like the Trey Young and Stef Curry sized players to play giant killers, and tweaks the rules again, then a guy like Beal will have less of an easy time scoring. Nowadays the player you want is the guy who can finish through contact. We will likely see a trend back towards bigger taller tougher wing players. And yeah okay, mid-range shooters who can find the cracks between the defense. (A big midrange wing guard like DeRozan should feast. And how is Kawhi doing? Oh yeah: the 2nd most efficient year of his career).

It's a new world. Teams better recognize. I suspect we are trending towards scoring bigs. Ball handling Bigs who can shoot over the defense. A guy like Kuzma could be poised to take advantage, as a ball handling big Wing who can score inside and out. A bit more muscle, a slightly tighter handle or better outside shot and he would rise swiftly to the attention of opposing scouts. Masai has figured it out in advance as usual. His entire team is a mob of 6'9" guys who can handle and play defense.

If the Wizards could develop the talent they have we would be poised to take advantage. Kuz, Rui, Deni -- all are Tall forwards with outside-in perimeter skills. What is Beal's role on a team like that? Pass the ball to the open guy, move off the ball with sharp cuts and smart reads. And really, stop whining to the refs. They're not gonna call it. Get over it. The world has changed. You either evolve quickly or get passed by the Next New Thing.

This is an extremely insightful post! Well done, Doc!

Doc is right that Beal's "slump" is very likely to be the new normal for him under the current rules. If that's the case, we need to trade him before the rest of the league figures it out. (Unfortunately, maybe they have already.) We definitely don't want to sign this version of Beal to a 5-year $240M contract. It'll be franchise crippling.

Do you know who is another big ball handler who finishes through contact and doesn't depend on free throws? Ben Simmons

[nate33]

(A big midrange wing guard like DeRozan should feast. And how is Kawhi doing? Oh yeah: the 2nd most efficient year of his career).

Confused by this. Are you referring to someone other than Kawhi but had a senior moment? Perhaps you meant Jimmy Butler.

[closg00]

I have convinced myself that Brad doesn't like change and just want's to hang here and be a Super Max player.

[payitforward]

My question is: How is Beal as a GM?...

This is an extremely insightful post! Well done, Doc!...

I agree 1000% !

& nate, your follow-on insight is on the money too!

...another big ball handler who finishes through contact and doesn't depend on free throws? Ben Simmons.

For the future of this franchise, trading Beal for Simmons & a little something, or even just Beal for Simmons straight up, looks like it might be just about the best move we could possibly make.

It's not a sure thing, of course, b/c Simmons is something of a problem child. But it sure beats anything else I can think of. & no question it's worlds better than re-signing Brad at the supermax.

[payitforward]

If the Sixers moved Simmons for Beal, they would very likely want to trade Seth Curry in the deal -- presumably Brad would be playing his minutes.

But... Beal for Simmons & Curry is asking a lot. So, what if we added KCP? Would that work?

In addition, we could also add Isaiah Todd, & they could add Charles Bassey. &/or we could agree to swap R1 picks with them this year.

So, that'd be:

Bradley Beal, KCP, Isaiah Todd, & the Wizards 2022 R1 pick
for
Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Charles Bassey, & the Sixers 2022 R1 pick

Thoughts...?

[nate33]

If the Sixers moved Simmons for Beal, they would very likely want to trade Seth Curry in the deal -- presumably Brad would be playing his minutes.

But... Beal for Simmons & Curry is asking a lot. So, what if we added KCP? Would that work?

In addition, we could also add Isaiah Todd, & they could add Charles Bassey. &/or we could agree to swap R1 picks with them this year.

So, that'd be:

Bradley Beal, KCP, Isaiah Todd, & the Wizards 2022 R1 pick
for
Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Charles Bassey, & the Sixers 2022 R1 pick

Thoughts...?

I don't really want Seth Curry back in a Beal deal. He's a good player, but he is 31 years old. If Philly would give him up for roster balancing purposes, I'd prefer to flip Curry elsewhere in exchange for a younger player or prospect. His contract is really cheap, giving him good trade value.

[payitforward]

The Sixers might see this move as giving them a legit chance to contend for the title this year.

After all, in terms of on-court value this season, essentially they gain Beal & KCP while giving up only Curry. Plus, they way improve their R1 pick a few months from now.

OTOH, the trade does put them over the lux tax line....

[payitforward]

If the Sixers moved Simmons for Beal, they would very likely want to trade Seth Curry in the deal -- presumably Brad would be playing his minutes.

But... Beal for Simmons & Curry is asking a lot. So, what if we added KCP? Would that work?

In addition, we could also add Isaiah Todd, & they could add Charles Bassey. &/or we could agree to swap R1 picks with them this year.

So, that'd be:

Bradley Beal, KCP, Isaiah Todd, & the Wizards 2022 R1 pick
for
Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Charles Bassey, & the Sixers 2022 R1 pick

Thoughts...?

I don't really want Seth Curry back in a Beal deal. He's a good player, but he is 31 years old. If Philly would give him up for roster balancing purposes, I'd prefer to flip Curry elsewhere in exchange for a younger player or prospect. His contract is really cheap, giving him good trade value.

Sure. That's a great idea. But, maybe it'd be better to move him in the off season? With Beal gone, we'd need someone to pick up a whole lot of minutes at SG -- esp. since we're also sending out KCP.

[payitforward]

nate -- you often write about Simmons playing at Forward. What if we added Rui to this deal, & they added Danny Green?

In truth, I don't want to trade Rui, & I don't want to acquire Green (b/c he is too old to be of much long-term help).

But, this adjustment does even out the $$, & it makes it easier to play Simmons at the 4. Plus, maybe we could flip Green...?

[nate33]

nate -- you often write about Simmons playing at Forward. What if we added Rui to this deal, & they added Danny Green?

In truth, I don't want to trade Rui, & I don't want to acquire Green (b/c he is too old to be of much long-term help).

But, this adjustment does even out the $$, & it makes it easier to play Simmons at the 4. Plus, maybe we could flip Green...?

Seems like an unnecessary sacrifice of value.

I'm not too worried about Rui and Simmons coexisting. Rui is showing signs that he will take and make 3's without hesitating, which will be a big help. Defensively, there's no issue at all because Rui can guard the 3, 4 and 5, and Simmons can guard all 5 spots. I'd trade Rui for a young guard of equivalent value, but I wouldn't move him for a guy like Danny Green just to try and balance the roster.

My ideal scenario would be to trade Deni or Rui for Haliburton. Haliburton would be perfect as a guard alongside Simmons because of his off-ball complementary play but also his ability to run pick-and-roll.

[nate33]

Sure. That's a great idea. But, maybe it'd be better to move him in the off season? With Beal gone, we'd need someone to pick up a whole lot of minutes at SG -- esp. since we're also sending out KCP.

If the roster imbalance results in more losses this year, all the better. We end up with a higher pick. We can address the roster imbalance in the offseason.

[doclinkin]

(A big midrange wing guard like DeRozan should feast. And how is Kawhi doing? Oh yeah: the 2nd most efficient year of his career).

Confused by this. Are you referring to someone other than Kawhi but had a senior moment? Perhaps you meant Jimmy Butler.

Mis-read the table on BRef. Forgot Kawhi was out, so just looked at the latest year he played. I would have been wrong about Jimmy Butler too if I had tabbed him. He too had his best year last year.

[nate33]

(A big midrange wing guard like DeRozan should feast. And how is Kawhi doing? Oh yeah: the 2nd most efficient year of his career).

Confused by this. Are you referring to someone other than Kawhi but had a senior moment? Perhaps you meant Jimmy Butler.

Mis-read the table on BRef. Forgot Kawhi was out, so just looked at the latest year he played. I would have been wrong about Jimmy Butler too if I had tabbed him. He too had his best year last year.

It is Butler's 2nd most efficient year by TS%. And he is tying his last year's production in ORtg (which factors turnovers), so maybe it is his most efficient year. Notably, he is doing it despite league having dropped dramatically relative to last year.

Jimmy Butler is really a remarkable player. If he only stayed healthy, he would be a prime candidate for MVP.

[doclinkin]

(A big midrange wing guard like DeRozan should feast. And how is Kawhi doing? Oh yeah: the 2nd most efficient year of his career).

Confused by this. Are you referring to someone other than Kawhi but had a senior moment? Perhaps you meant Jimmy Butler.

That said if you look at this year's FTA/game leaders:

2022
1. Embiid same as last year. Unstoppable Big with outside inside skills.
2. Ballhandling Big Giannis. Same as last year.
3. FT Maestro Harden. Up from #7. He scores through contact, plays big, and is the smartest in the game at gaming the refs.
4. Derozan
5. 6'10" Perimeter Assassin Durant (up from #12). Among the all time best at shooting over defense and hitting the shot even when fouled.
6. 6'6" long armed PG Shai G-A, scores through contact.
7. Trae Young (drops to 7 from 4, but like Harden is one of the smartest in the game at working the refs).
8. Gobert
9. Ja Morant (scores through contact)
10. Luka (6'10" perimeter ball handler)

Dropping out of the top 10:
Brad Beal (6. to 24.)
Dame Lillard (8. to 11.)
DeAaron Fox (10. to 14.)
and a guy like Stef Curry was #16 last year, #29 this year.

You want perimeter ballhandling Bigs. Or guys who can defend those guys without fouling. Deni, Rui, Kuzma, are all assets whose value should increase over the next few years, if they are able to develop the flashes of game they show.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I don't really want Seth Curry back in a Beal deal. He's a good player, but he is 31 years old. If Philly would give him up for roster balancing purposes, I'd prefer to flip Curry elsewhere in exchange for a younger player or prospect. His contract is really cheap, giving him good trade value.

Seth isn't his bro, but his game is also likely to age really well. And in any case, its looking a gift horse in the mouth.

People have to realize that every minute Beal isn't traded is a minute before the NBA figures out that he's not only not a #1 option, but he's closer to being a #3 than a #2, while knowing that *someone* is going to pay him like a superstar #1 option and his contract demands will align with that.

The worst option is signing Bradley Beal to a supermax (he's basically the new Allan Houston), the second worst option is letting him walk for nothing. The best option is getting some value back before people realized that he's closer to a CJ McCollum or a Khris Middleton than a James Harden.

Btw, DeRozan, Butler and Leonard are throwbacks to mid 00s/early 2010s ball when the 3 was still a powerful weapon, but the midrange was also still very important, and being strong and athletic was actually required to be a star. That's why they're succeeding even past their athletic prime. Guys like Beal and Harden are undersized combo guards with meh athleticism, but they oriented their games around exploiting **** officiating standards that are going to be absolutely mocked 10 years from now and looked at as a dark period of the NBA, similar to the immediate post-Jordan era.

[Kanyewest]

I don't get this notion of not wanting to pay a #2 the max, or assuming that the only way to build a contender is to "save" your max slot for a "true #1." How many #2s take sub-max deals? Most #2s on contenders get max money. And, multiple teams have become contenders by retaining a #2 and getting their #1 guy later.

The only #2s on contenders who wouldn't getting max money on the open market that I can think are Holiday and Murray.

So, as frustrating as Beal is, if we think he's a #2, we should keep him. Is he any worse than Paul Pierce was pre-KG/Ray Allen? Or Devin Booker before CP3 came along? Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker were known as talented but low-IQ players. Booker was a shot-jacker and stat padder who did stupid stuff like run up the score to get to 70.

If you have a star, you do what you can to keep him. Then, you look for opportunities to add another piece. You find a distressed star; you get lucky in the draft; etc. But it's not as if we'd be overpaying to keep a true #2.

Now, if the theory is that Beal has fallen off to the point where he can't even be a #2. Let's say he's injured, or the league rules have relegated him to Tobias Harris-level, or he's got long COVID. If he's entered the Blake Griffin in Detroit stage of his career, then that's a different story. But if we project him to be a legit #2, then we keep him.

Let's make a distinction between "max" and "supermax". How many #2 options are getting paid 35% of the cap? Most #2 options are younger and are either on their first post rookie contract paying them 25% of the cap, or they are on their second post-rookie contract earning 30%. They are also being paid under the plausible assumption that they haven't yet peaked. Beal is eligible for 35% and he is no longer getting better. The only people making that much coin are:

Curry
Wall
Westbrook
Harden
Lebron
Durant
Giannis
Paul George
Lillard
Kawhi

Among those guys, Curry, Harden, Lebron, Durant, Giannis and Kawhi are MVP-caliber guys who deserve it.

Wall and Westbrook are clearly bad signings who didn't deserve the supermax.

Paul George and Damian Lillard are somewhere in between. The contracts feel like mild overpays, but at least the teams are somewhat relevant.

At best Beal could be considered in the Paul George/Damian Lillard tier, but I think that's overly generous. He isn't as good as those guys and Washington hasn't even sniffed the level of success of Portland and LA.

A more honest evaluation of Beal puts him in the tier of Gordon Hayward, CJ McCollum, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton or Demarr Derozan (of last year, that is). Those guys are good but they're not supermax players who can carry a team. Demarr is paid $26M, McCollum $30M, Jrue, $30M, Middleton, $35M, and Hayward $30M.

Paying Beal $43M (with big raises going forward) seems out of step to me.

Westbrook's contract didn't age well but he did win MVP the year he signed his contract.

[Kanyewest]

^^ also the Thunder were able to get Chris Paul and multiple first rounders for Westbrook. And the Wizards turned John Wall into the Lakers package via Westbrook So maybe a supermax contract isn't terrible (other than the opportunity cost of not being able to tank for a draft pick).