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Rui Hachimura 2.0

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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#341 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:19 pm

DCZards wrote:Rui has been solid thus far. He's showing increased confidence in his 3 ball. He needs to consistently knock down that midrange jumper which could be one of his strengths given his ability to flash into the paint for open shots.

Given that he missed almost the entire first half of the season, I'm eager to see how well Rui plays after the all-star break.


Gotta disagree. When he comes in, the offense grinds to a halt. On defense, he's still fine one on one, but pretty clueless in rotations and, though his rebounding is up, it's not like he's cleaning the glass like Dennis Rodman.

We are better without him and Bryant in the rotation because the players they are taking minutes from are better than they are.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#342 » by DCZards » Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:45 pm

The offense grinds to a halt because of the play of our guards. Can’t blame that on Rui. That’s been a problem all-game and all-season
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#343 » by smoothSeph » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:02 am

I know people hate to hear this but Rui really is an eye test guy. He looks a lot more comfortable out there. The ways he's attacked rebounds, shooting the ball confidently, even the couple blocks he made were impressive (though you want to see a lot more).

I noticed most games he's missed his first couple shots, meaning like a lot of other players he's struggling to find a rhythm without consistent minutes. It's hard to evaluate where a lot of our guys are right now because of this.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#344 » by payitforward » Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:20 am

First & most important: Rui has played 141 minutes so far this season. There is no conclusion to be drawn from 141 minutes. Period. One good 30-minute outing would make him look terrific so far. One lousy 30-minute outing would make him look awful so far.

That said, no, he has not been "solid thus far." Some things are up, some things are down -- as you'd expect with small number of minutes -- overall the numbers are down not up. This is not criticism; it's just fact.

His defensive rebounding is up. But his offensive rebounding is down. Still, overall his rebounding is up. Then again, overall, his scoring is down -- points slightly up but on more FGAs/FTAs, so his EFG% is at a career low & so is his TS%.

There are no conclusions -- zero, zip -- from these facts, because the minutes are so few. But they are facts all the same, & so far Rui hasn't shown anything special overall. In fact, so far -- in minutes too few to extrapolate from -- he's having his worst season yet. No doubt it'll get better.

Still, it's nice to see that he's made 7 of the 19 3-point shots he's tried. & it's nice as well to see that his defensive rebound numbers have jumped significantly. It's just that it doesn't work to ignore his having gone 19-43 on 2-point shots (.442 -- by far his worst level so far). Or to ignore his offensive rebounds having fallen by 50% from last year (after having fallen 50% last year compared to his rookie year).

What does this mean? As I've pointed out, it means nothing. Nothing at all.

Above all, it doesn't mean that so far Rui has been solid. He hasn't.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#345 » by DCZards » Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:00 am

payitforward wrote:First & most important: Rui has played 141 minutes so far this season. There is no conclusion to be drawn from 141 minutes. Period. One good 30-minute outing would make him look terrific so far. One lousy 30-minute outing would make him look awful so far.

That said, no, he has not been "solid thus far." Some things are up, some things are down -- as you'd expect with small number of minutes -- overall the numbers are down not up. This is not criticism; it's just fact.

His defensive rebounding is up. But his offensive rebounding is down. Still, overall his rebounding is up. Then again, overall, his scoring is down -- points slightly up but on more FGAs/FTAs, so his EFG% is at a career low & so is his TS%.

There are no conclusions -- zero, zip -- from these facts, because the minutes are so few. But they are facts all the same, & so far Rui hasn't shown anything special overall. In fact, so far -- in minutes too few to extrapolate from -- he's having his worst season yet. No doubt it'll get better.

Still, it's nice to see that he's made 7 of the 19 3-point shots he's tried. & it's nice as well to see that his defensive rebound numbers have jumped significantly. It's just that it doesn't work to ignore his having gone 19-43 on 2-point shots (.442 -- by far his worst level so far). Or to ignore his offensive rebounds having fallen by 50% from last year (after having fallen 50% last year compared to his rookie year).

What does this mean? As I've pointed out, it means nothing. Nothing at all.

Above all, it doesn't mean that so far Rui has been solid. He hasn't.

"...not everything that counts can be counted.”
-Albert Einstein
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#346 » by AFM » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:25 am

Amazing quote but PIF is smarter than Einstein. PIF was blown into a bush and believed he was born on first base. Or whatever.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#347 » by Silvie Lysandra » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:06 pm

A big reason to trade Beal is to see what we *actually* have in Rui. We should also be trying to deal Kuzma and Harrell for whatever assets can be gotten for the same reason.

I want to see how Rui performs with 20 shots a game.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#348 » by nate33 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:30 pm

Chaos Revenant wrote:A big reason to trade Beal is to see what we *actually* have in Rui. We should also be trying to deal Kuzma and Harrell for whatever assets can be gotten for the same reason.

I want to see how Rui performs with 20 shots a game.

I want to trade Beal, but I'm not a big fan of forcefeeding Rui shots. Rui strikes me as a pretty inefficient scorer when trying to get his own shot. It's true that he is better than some pure role players in that at least he has a means of creating a shot when a play breaks down, unfortunately, it just tends not to be a very good shot.

I want Rui to work more on trying to score efficiently within the flow of the offense, instead of ball-stopping and then trying to generate a long 2. So far, I'm pleased that he has been catching and shooting the open 3 without hesitation (and hitting them at a 36% clip). That's really the most important skill. Once he gets that down, he can then work on refining his post game to exploit mismatches. Once he gets that skill down, he can work at trying to generate shots against set defenses as a primary option. But that's going to take a while.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#349 » by payitforward » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:05 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:First & most important: Rui has played 141 minutes so far this season. There is no conclusion to be drawn from 141 minutes. Period. One good 30-minute outing would make him look terrific so far. One lousy 30-minute outing would make him look awful so far.

That said, no, he has not been "solid thus far." Some things are up, some things are down -- as you'd expect with small number of minutes -- overall the numbers are down not up. This is not criticism; it's just fact.

His defensive rebounding is up. But his offensive rebounding is down. Still, overall his rebounding is up. Then again, overall, his scoring is down -- points slightly up but on more FGAs/FTAs, so his EFG% is at a career low & so is his TS%.

There are no conclusions -- zero, zip -- from these facts, because the minutes are so few. But they are facts all the same, & so far Rui hasn't shown anything special overall. In fact, so far -- in minutes too few to extrapolate from -- he's having his worst season yet. No doubt it'll get better.

Still, it's nice to see that he's made 7 of the 19 3-point shots he's tried. & it's nice as well to see that his defensive rebound numbers have jumped significantly. It's just that it doesn't work to ignore his having gone 19-43 on 2-point shots (.442 -- by far his worst level so far). Or to ignore his offensive rebounds having fallen by 50% from last year (after having fallen 50% last year compared to his rookie year).

What does this mean? As I've pointed out, it means nothing. Nothing at all.

Above all, it doesn't mean that so far Rui has been solid. He hasn't.

"...not everything that counts can be counted.”
-Albert Einstein

Honestly, Zards... I didn't write anything negative about Rui, I want him to succeed.

It's absolutely true that there are many things that count about Rui Hachimura that can't be counted.

Only... those things are not about basketball, because basketball occurs entirely, 100%, within a framework that is precisely about counting -- & nothing else. It's divided into games which are counted in minutes, & which are either won or lost based on counting. The universe Einstein helped us understand isn't divided into games with scores. Most of life isn't for that matter.

But, basketball is: so what a player does over some set of minutes counts. Because it contributes to that final count: that final score: either a win or a loss.

If you can point to something Rui does that cannot be counted but which nonetheless contributes to that final count, that final score, feel free to mention it.

But, if you mention that "Rui is shooting the 3 well," that's about something that "can be counted." Which means that it's relevant to point out that, overall, NO, Rui is not shooting well; he's shooting worse than he ever has. On the plus side, it's only 141 minutes -- count 'em, that's all there are -- so, as I wrote, no conclusions can be drawn.

What we can say, however, is that, so far, no, Rui has not been solid. Not yet.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#350 » by Silvie Lysandra » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:49 pm

nate33 wrote:I want to trade Beal, but I'm not a big fan of forcefeeding Rui shots. Rui strikes me as a pretty inefficient scorer when trying to get his own shot. It's true that he is better than some pure role players in that at least he has a means of creating a shot when a play breaks down, unfortunately, it just tends not to be a very good shot.


The idea is that if you're trading Beal, you're tanking. If you're tanking, you get to see if Rui can adapt to being forcefed shots via refining his post and one on one game. The idea is that he'll suck at it, but by getting the chance to do it every night, he'll improve much faster than him being a 4th/5th option role player. With that said, I agree with your assessment of his current skillset.

With that said, this doesn't apply if Simmons or Sabonis is coming back the other way, but you'd probably have to add Rui to that deal anyway.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#351 » by nate33 » Sat Feb 5, 2022 2:28 pm

I continue to like the way Rui is playing. He was understandably shaky in his first 4 games back, trying to find his role in the offense. But over the last 8 games, he has posted the following per 36 numbers (while averaging 17.9 actual minutes per game):

18.2 points
8.6 rebounds
2.2 assists
0.8 steals
0.8 blocks
1.2 turnovers
4.8 3PAs
.421 3P%
.610 TS%

These numbers are profoundly better than his career numbers. In particular, the rebounding (career average is 6.8 per 36), and the 3PA rate (career average is 2.6) look real good. He is confidently taking the 3 without hesitation whenever it's available. That's exactly what I had been hoping he'd work on. I don't know if he can maintain a 42% 3P%, but even if it falls to 37% or so, that would still be a big boost to his TS% given the volume of 3's he is now taking.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#352 » by JAR69 » Sat Feb 5, 2022 3:26 pm

Also worth noting those last 8 games were against pretty good teams: 76ers x2, Brooklyn, Toronto, Boston, Clippers, Memphis, Milwaukee.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#353 » by WallToWall » Sat Feb 5, 2022 3:42 pm

nate33 wrote:I continue to like the way Rui is playing. He was understandably shaky in his first 4 games back, trying to find his role in the offense. But over the last 8 games, he has posted the following per 36 numbers (while averaging 17.9 actual minutes per game):

18.2 points
8.6 rebounds
2.2 assists
0.8 steals
0.8 blocks
1.2 turnovers
4.8 3PAs
.421 3P%
.610 TS%

These numbers are profoundly better than his career numbers. In particular, the rebounding (career average is 6.8 per 36), and the 3PA rate (career average is 2.6) look real good. He is confidently taking the 3 without hesitation whenever it's available. That's exactly what I had been hoping he'd work on. I don't know if he can maintain a 42% 3P%, but even if it falls to 37% or so, that would still be a big boost to his TS% given the volume of 3's he is now taking.

Confirms the eye test. Important to note that it’s 8 games on low usage. Still all good. If he can keep this up while averaging 25-30min a game, then we have quite something on our hands.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#354 » by Halcyon » Sat Feb 5, 2022 3:43 pm

Rui's rebounding improvement also passes the eye test, I feel like he's been grabbing some tough defensive rebounds more than before.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#355 » by NatP4 » Sat Feb 5, 2022 5:13 pm

nate33 wrote:I continue to like the way Rui is playing. He was understandably shaky in his first 4 games back, trying to find his role in the offense. But over the last 8 games, he has posted the following per 36 numbers (while averaging 17.9 actual minutes per game):

18.2 points
8.6 rebounds
2.2 assists
0.8 steals
0.8 blocks
1.2 turnovers
4.8 3PAs
.421 3P%
.610 TS%

These numbers are profoundly better than his career numbers. In particular, the rebounding (career average is 6.8 per 36), and the 3PA rate (career average is 2.6) look real good. He is confidently taking the 3 without hesitation whenever it's available. That's exactly what I had been hoping he'd work on. I don't know if he can maintain a 42% 3P%, but even if it falls to 37% or so, that would still be a big boost to his TS% given the volume of 3's he is now taking.


To add to this: In those 8 games (143 minutes), Rui is 3rd on the wizards in on/off rating, only behind Gafford and Avdija.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#356 » by nate33 » Sat Feb 5, 2022 5:19 pm

NatP4 wrote:To add to this: In those 8 games (143 minutes), Rui is 3rd on the wizards in on/off rating, only behind Gafford and Avdija.

Avdija really is remarkable. The guy just knows how to play and help a team.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#357 » by NatP4 » Sat Feb 5, 2022 5:35 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:To add to this: In those 8 games (143 minutes), Rui is 3rd on the wizards in on/off rating, only behind Gafford and Avdija.

Avdija really is remarkable. The guy just knows how to play and help a team.


Yep, and Kispert too. He doesn’t really do anything special, but when he plays, it helps the team.

When Avdija’s 3 ball starts to fall(which we all know it will), he’s going to be even better. Gonna have a great career.

Hard to not have a massive positive impact with a career 2:1 A/TO, plus rebounding, steals and blocks, efficient 2pt%, and great defense. The last piece is just the 3pt shot falling. He reminds me of a prime Tayshaun Prince right now.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#358 » by nate33 » Sat Feb 5, 2022 5:52 pm

NatP4 wrote:When Avdija’s 3 ball starts to fall(which we all know it will), he’s going to be even better. Gonna have a great career.

I noticed that Avidja is quietly shooting 82% from the FT line over the last 42 games. (He had a woeful 3 for 10 stretch in games 8 and 9 that tanked his season average). Consistent FT shooting is usually a sign that one can develop a consistent 3-point shot.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#359 » by prime1time » Mon Feb 14, 2022 12:36 am

Rui is shooting 44.1% from 3. It's funny how after all the criticism of his shooting that his success goes completely unnoticed. Kuzma's success has overshadowed Rui's shooting but we should still point this out. For perspective, KCP is shooting 36% from 3. If Rui keeps this up it will be very tough to keep him out of the starting line-up. Also, while his 3's per game are down, his per 36 attempts are up from 2.7 to 4.2 because he has had a significant reduction in minutes. It will be very interesting to see how Rui plays from here on out. Nevertheless, going back to the playoff series last year Rui has been 24/49 from 3 or 48.9%.

With no Beal, Rui will have more opportunities to shoot. I expect his numbers to go down, but for someone who people have said would never be able to develop a 3-point shot, this is nothing short of a stunning development. Since the playoffs last year he has been our best 3-point shooter, and it hasn't been close.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#360 » by payitforward » Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:53 am

It's great to see Rui shooting & make 3s the way he is. The better he does that the better player he is -- obviously.

Overall, on now 293 minutes, Rui is better than he was last year & just about the same as he was his rookie year. His big improvement in 3 point shooting, however, has mostly been offset by a decline in his 2-point % & in his FT% -- but not entirely offset: his TS% is up 1 percentage point from his rookie year. On just about the same usage.

His defensive rebounds are up. But, his offensive rebounds are down.

Key thing is that he's coming back after many months of not playing. Sort of similar to coming off an injury the way Bryant is. We'll need the rest of the season to find out much about where either of those guys are going forward.

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