Does our Window for a NBA Finals Run Start Next Season?

[TaylorTag]

I hope it's OK me creating this thread. I think it will serve a unique purpose as the type of discussion I am interested in falls outside the trade thread, which right now is appropriately focused on the upcoming trade deadline.

I am interested in the roster development of this team short term and long term, but I am particularly interested in what the Wolves do this summer because I think there's an argument to be made that next season could be the year we go all in and try to become contenders...

Why do I think this? I kind of look at the Wolves as the Seattle Seahawks pre Russel Wilson (fwiw I'm a 49ers fan and had the Seahawks).. Hear me out: The Seahawks drafted Russel Wilson and all of a sudden he turns that team into perennial winners in the tough NFC. Were those Seahawks teams all Wilson? Of course not. They had the Legion of Boom, they had Bobby Wagner, they had a talented roster. The reason why they were able to sustain success during Wilson's first few seasons was because his rookie salary was a fraction of what he should have been paid in terms of his cap value...

I see Edwards as Russel Wilson. Why? For one, because he is a game changing player that is capable of turning a middling team into a title contender. But two, because his salary is limited due to the rookie scale. Ant is one of those young players who exceeds their contract's value by playing like a multiyear vet from day one.

With Ant on a rookie contract, the stars seem to be actually aligning for Minnesota for once, as the Wolves are close to escaping cap hell for the first time in what feels like forever...

Despite having ten players signed next season, the Wolves would still be $38M below the luxury tax. 7 of the 10 players signed are arguably core players expected to get significant playing time next year: KAT, Ant, D'Lo, Vando, McDaniels, Nowell, Naz Reid (Nowell and Naz Reid have team options and I'm a little fuzzy on the details but it sounds like the Wolves will have those guys on the squad either way at a low cap hit). By calling those 7 guys "core players," I am not saying they are untradable or that they are guaranteed to be on the team, but it would be surprising if one of those guys weren't on the team, barring a trade.

The remaining three players signed next year are Malik Beasely, Jordan McLaughlin and Leondro Bolmaro... Bolmaro I am not including as a core player because he has not gotten any real playing time this season so the jury is still out. I don't think there will be too many teams banging on our door to trade for him. McLaughlin as a third-point guard isn't bad in terms of roster construction.

Beasely, making about $15M a year, is truly the only meh contract we are tied to next year (unless you are one of those people who think D'Lo is overpaid--more on D'Lo in a sec). If the Wolves were magically able to remove Beasely off their books, we would be looking at $53 million dollars in luxury tax space and 9 players signed. If we include the three draft picks we own in the upcoming draft, the Wolves have 12 players signed, although let's say one is a two-way player, so we are looking at 11 players at lets say a combined $4M cap hit, the Wolves would have 3 roster spots remaining (the Wolves typically keep 14 guys on our active roster) with $49M of luxury cap space...

I bring all of this up not to map out a 10-step plan to build this roster and become Finals contenders. I mostly do it because the Wolves could be in a position to really make some noise this offseason, but I am not exactly sure how they do it..

Obviously saying, let's "magically remove Beasely off the books" is not a thing you can do in the NBA... And despite his mediocre play this year, I feel like the Wolves could find a way to offload his contract with a future pick somewhere if pushed come to shove.

With $50M in cap space and 11 players signed, there is so much flexibility for the franchise. I just am not sure if the Wolves have the luxury to pass this up. Because in a few years Ant will be on a max contract and either we are filling out bench with vet minimum guys or we've traded KAT and D'Lo and we are rebuilding around Ant.

Either way, that seems to be the trajectory we are on, and so if the goal/ceiling isn't to make a Finals run then what are we even doing here? More importantly, what moves can we make to get there? Who is expected to be a free agent next offseason? Who do we think will be on the trading block this summer? Which draft picks can be provide depth and maybe even starter minutes..

The only two known variables this summer (well four, but I've already touched on Nowell and Naz Reid contract situations), are the futures of D'Lo and Beverley. With D'Lo signed through next season, I don't think negotiations for a contract extension would effect his cap hit next year, so that variable doesn't change our cap situation, unless we decided to move on from D'Lo of course... Then there's Beverley, who seems to be happy here and sounds as if he has indicated he would like to return. On what contract I am not entirely sure.. Would a 2-year $20M deal make sense for both sides?

If we did bring Beverley back on a contract like that, the Wolves would have 12 players signed and roughly $40M in cap space. If that doesn't provide the backdrop of a title window than I am not sure what does.

More interesting questions.. On the free agency/trade front: If you had $20M dollars to add two non-rookie players to a roster consisting of Beverley, D'Lo, McLaughlin, Nowell, Bolmaro, Edwards, McDaniels, Vanderbilt, Towns, Reid, Rookie 1, Rookie 2.. who would you add?

On the draft front, if the Wolves have those ten returning guys, which rookies would you like the Wolves to target to complement the roster?