2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[Dutchball97]

These last 30 games will be really important. The race between Embiid, Jokic, Giannis and Curry could still go a lot of ways. KD and LeBron are probably going to miss too much time to pose a real danger. Maybe some others like DeRozan, CP3, Booker, Gobert or Ja could still make a claim with an especially strong end to the season. It just seems a bit premature to already try to crown a MVP when a big losing streak or a slump could be around the corner for anyone.

[Cubbies2120]

I'll preface this by saying Jokic would be my MVP vote as of now, but no, let's please just stop with the "he's carrying a roster of bench guys" thing. It's such an overplayed and inaccurate narrative. Aaron Gordon has been a starter his entire career. Will Barton has been a starter on this same Denver team for the past 4-5 seasons, and his lone season on the bench since coming over from Portland, he was a legit 6th Man of the Year candidate. Monte Morris is one of the best back-up PG's in the league and would probably start for a lot of teams if he wasn't stuck behind Jamal Murray for his entire career thus far. Jeff Green literally started for a championship contending Nets team last year. All of these guys are quality to above-average starting players in this league, and have been for a while. I actually agree with Malone's strategy (playing Jokic as much as they can with the starters then hoping your bench unit can just survive), but it also perfectly illustrates why on/off numbers need context behind them.

Aaron Gordon, prior to playing with Jokic, was an inefficient starter. He never shot close to 50% from the field until he was paired with Jokic, where he started shooting 50+% since he got there. Throw him back on a bad team and he'll be as inefficient as ever.

His supporting cast is average at absolute best, but what can you expect when two max contracts are sitting out the year (one of whom we don't know if he'll ever really recover due to his back issues). This isn't a case of the "leader" of the team throwing players under the bus so they no longer want to play with that team, it's an issue of health.

[Castle Black]

Ton of basketball left to be played. All these arguments are moot right now. We’re not even at the All-Star Break yet.

[ty 4191]

I'll preface this by saying Jokic would be my MVP vote as of now, but no, let's please just stop with the "he's carrying a roster of bench guys" thing. It's such an overplayed and inaccurate narrative. Aaron Gordon has been a starter his entire career. Will Barton has been a starter on this same Denver team for the past 4-5 seasons, and his lone season on the bench since coming over from Portland, he was a legit 6th Man of the Year candidate. Monte Morris is one of the best back-up PG's in the league and would probably start for a lot of teams if he wasn't stuck behind Jamal Murray for his entire career thus far. Jeff Green literally started for a championship contending Nets team last year. All of these guys are quality to above-average starting players in this league, and have been for a while. I actually agree with Malone's strategy (playing Jokic as much as they can with the starters then hoping your bench unit can just survive), but it also perfectly illustrates why on/off numbers need context behind them.

There might be a universe out there where Jeff Green, Monte Morris and Will Barton are above average starters but it isn't the one we're living in.

Post of the day!

Green: 13.5 PER (15 is a merely league average & usually a bench level player), .096 WS/48 (.100 is league average)
Morris: 15.4 PER, .102 WS/48
Barton: 14.5 PER, .074 WS/48

The Nuggets average PER without Jokic, among players with 500 MP this season is 12.8, or 15% worse than even the league average player, which isn't exactly setting the bar high!!

The Nuggets average WS/48 without Jokic using the same criteria is .078. 22% below the league average.

He's playing with a bunch of scrubs, and they're still 28-23 and 6th in the West.

On the other hand, the 6th most valuable player on the 76ers, Tyrese Maxey, is better than all the players (aside from Jokic) on the Nuggets who have played at least 500 minutes.

[ty 4191]

Take a look at the lifetime records with Embiid playing and with Jokic playing. Sixers have a better record.

Yes, because Embiid has had much better teammates. Are you really that slow and obtuse?

Embiid has missed 311 games in his career. That's 3.8 full seasons' worth of missed games. Absolutely ridiculous and almost unbelievably bad.

Jokic has missed 26 games in his entire career.

Warned. Keep the basketball discussion, lose the personal attacks on other users.
- js21

[ty 4191]

Well even with the loss last night the sixers record when he plays stand at 27-12 which is still the highest win percentage in the east. Nobody expected the sixers to be playing nearly as well as they have. The narrative is goat level.

Surely you can't be serious, right?

if Embiid doesn't play anymore he still wins MVP because the team record with him playing stays immaculate logically sound!

This is why this guy has the lowest And1 to post ratio of anyone on this site with 10,000 posts, by FAR.

Trolling.

Same with the other Embiid Trolling aficionado," Hussein".

[yoyoboy]

In 44 games with Garland, the Cavs are operating at roughly a +6.14 SRS this season. In 8 games without Darius Garland, the Cavs are operating at around a -6.29 SRS. They go from performing at the level of the 3rd best team in the league with him (only behind Golden State and Phoenix) to performing at the level of the 27th best team in the league without him.

With Garland on the court this season, the Cavs have a Net Rating of +9.1, and without him, the Cavs are -3.6. An on-off of +12.7. And keep in mind, for the majority of the season, the Cavs have had super backup Ricky Rubio taking his place when he's off the floor.

In RAPM, Garland ranks 5th in the league at +3.51, only coming behind Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, and George Hill. Hill is out of place obviously, but his on-off numbers are nuts and he's a bench guy only playing 25 mpg, so he's primarily just killing bench units and you have to account for that. The rest are arguably the most valuable players this season though, with another guy in Embiid coming in at 9th in RAPM. Giannis is 17th for the record.

Garland might not have the most crazy box score numbers out there, but his impact is substantial, and if this award is about value, then how many guys have been more valuable to their teams than Garland this season? The team is absolutely terrible without him yet performs at contender level with him. His playmaking, shooting, off ball movement, infectious energy, and communication on defense really make this team what it is. I'm not saying he should be ahead of the main contenders, but I would argue he's more deserving of being in the conversation than a few of the names being brought up in this thread.

[ty 4191]

In 44 games with Garland, the Cavs are operating at roughly a +6.14 SRS this season. In 8 games without Darius Garland, the Cavs are operating at around a -6.29 SRS. They go from performing at the level of the 3rd best team in the league with him (only behind Golden State and Phoenix) to performing at the level of the 27th best team in the league without him.

With Garland on the court this season, the Cavs have a Net Rating of +9.1, and without him, the Cavs are -3.6. An on-off of +12.7. And keep in mind, for the majority of the season, the Cavs have had super backup Ricky Rubio taking his place when he's off the floor.

Where are you finding SRS on/off data? What are the Nuggets with and without Jokic? Where do they rank?

How about Embiid?

What about Net Rating? Where are you finding that on/off data? Same players.

Thank you.

[yoyoboy]

In 44 games with Garland, the Cavs are operating at roughly a +6.14 SRS this season. In 8 games without Darius Garland, the Cavs are operating at around a -6.29 SRS. They go from performing at the level of the 3rd best team in the league with him (only behind Golden State and Phoenix) to performing at the level of the 27th best team in the league without him.

With Garland on the court this season, the Cavs have a Net Rating of +9.1, and without him, the Cavs are -3.6. An on-off of +12.7. And keep in mind, for the majority of the season, the Cavs have had super backup Ricky Rubio taking his place when he's off the floor.

Where are you finding SRS on/off data? What are the Nuggets with and without Jokic? Where do they rank?

How about Embiid?

What about Net Rating? Where are you finding that on/off data? Same players.

Thank you.

I had to manually calculate the SRS numbers. I'm sorry, but you'll have to get those figures yourself.

As far as on-off though:

Embiid: +7.9 Net Rating ON, -2.7 Net Rating OFF, +10.6 On-Off

Jokic: +10.6 Net Rating ON, -11.4 Net Rating OFF, +22.0 On-Off

[Ron Swanson]

Ah yes, using PER! to analyze how good non-superstar level players are. Draymond Green must really suck!

In all honesty, you guys can have your opinions, but just trying to dispel these very wrong cliches about Jokic "playing with a bunch of G-league/bench players" because it's just that. He can still be the MVP playing with a bunch of solid role-players and starting caliber dudes (which again, he is), just not any All-Star caliber guys. Don't take it so personally.

[ty 4191]

Ah yes, using PER! to analyze how good non-superstar level players are. Draymond Green must really suck!

In all honesty, you guys can have your opinions, but just trying to dispel these very wrong cliches about Jokic "playing with a bunch of G-league/bench players" because it's just that. He can still be the MVP playing with a bunch of solid role-players and starting caliber dudes (which again, he is), just not any All-Star caliber guys. Don't take it so personally.

This isn't "opinions". It's hard data.

15 PER is league average, Ron. .100 WS in league average. The 76ers 6th best player is better than any of Jokic's teammates.

[ty 4191]

I had to manually calculate the SRS numbers. I'm sorry, but you'll have to get those figures yourself.

As far as on-off though:

Embiid: +7.9 Net Rating ON, -2.7 Net Rating OFF, +10.6 On-Off

Jokic: +10.6 Net Rating ON, -11.4 Net Rating OFF, +22.0 On-Off

Where do the Nuggets rank in SRS with Jokic on the court this year, vs. off?

Same questions goes for Net Rating.

Can you also post the top 5 in AuPM?

Thanks again.

[Ron Swanson]

Ah yes, using PER! to analyze how good non-superstar level players are. Draymond Green must really suck!

In all honesty, you guys can have your opinions, but just trying to dispel these very wrong cliches about Jokic "playing with a bunch of G-league/bench players" because it's just that. He can still be the MVP playing with a bunch of solid role-players and starting caliber dudes (which again, he is), just not any All-Star caliber guys. Don't take it so personally.

This isn't "opinions". It's hard data.

15 PER is league average, Ron. .100 WS in league average. The 76ers 6th best player is better than any of Jokic's teammates.

What's weird is that by your own statistical definition (PER!, Win Shares PER 48!) Tyrese Maxey is quite literally not their "6th best players" and is actually their 2nd or 3rd best player. But like you said, hard data...

[AdagioPace]

Ah yes, using PER! to analyze how good non-superstar level players are. Draymond Green must really suck!

In all honesty, you guys can have your opinions, but just trying to dispel these very wrong cliches about Jokic "playing with a bunch of G-league/bench players" because it's just that. He can still be the MVP playing with a bunch of solid role-players and starting caliber dudes (which again, he is), just not any All-Star caliber guys. Don't take it so personally.

Draymond is one the best defenders in the league(not captured by PER). Find a better example next time. Players whose contribution is for the most part offensive and have a PER of 15.....well, they are not that "good"

[eyeatoma]

Take a look at the lifetime records with Embiid playing and with Jokic playing. Sixers have a better record.

Yes, because Embiid has had much better teammates. Are you really that slow and obtuse?

Embiid has missed 311 games in his career. That's 3.8 full seasons' worth of missed games. Absolutely ridiculous and almost unbelievably bad.

Jokic has missed 26 games in his entire career.

Warned. Keep the basketball discussion, lose the personal attacks on other users.
- js21

Hmmm... I guess Murray and MPJ aren't very good then right? Both are better than Simmons and Tobias.

[ty 4191]

What's weird is that by your own statistical definition (PER!, Win Shares PER 48!) Tyrese Maxey is quite literally not their "6th best players" and is actually their 2nd or 3rd best player. But like you said, hard data...

He's their 4th best player with 500 MP via PER and also via WS/48. And he's still better than everyone else on Jokic's team.

And, if you have more sophisticated metrics, by all means. Post them for both Jokic's teammates and Embiid's.

Otherwise it's just your opinion.

[ty 4191]

Take a look at the lifetime records with Embiid playing and with Jokic playing. Sixers have a better record.

Yes, because Embiid has had much better teammates. Are you really that slow and obtuse?

Embiid has missed 311 games in his career. That's 3.8 full seasons' worth of missed games. Absolutely ridiculous and almost unbelievably bad.

Jokic has missed 26 games in his entire career.

Hmmm... I guess Murray and MPJ aren't very good then right? Both are better than Simmons and Tobias.

Overall teammate support. Not just 2 players. That's ridiculous.

What's also ridiculous is you ranking Embiid over Jokic, career, or, this year.

Career:

Jokic:
PER: 26.7 (across 499 games)
VORP: 40.1
WS: 73.8
WS/48: .236
BPM: 8.6

Embiid:
PER: 26.6 (across only 299 games- he's a part time player)
VORP: 17.4
WS: 38.5
WS/48: .200
BPM: 5.5

2021-2022:

Jokic:
PER: 33.1
VORP: 6.2
WS: 9.4
WS/48: .305
BPM: 14.4

Embiid:
PER: 31.3
VORP: 3.6
WS: 6.9
WS/48: .258
BPM: 9.2

Jokic buries Embiid in both career and current season value. I emboldened everything Jokic leads in.

It's not even remotely close.

[Infinite Llamas]

I'll preface this by saying Jokic would be my MVP vote as of now, but no, let's please just stop with the "he's carrying a roster of bench guys" thing. It's such an overplayed and inaccurate narrative. Aaron Gordon has been a starter his entire career. Will Barton has been a starter on this same Denver team for the past 4-5 seasons, and his lone season on the bench since coming over from Portland, he was a legit 6th Man of the Year candidate. Monte Morris is one of the best back-up PG's in the league and would probably start for a lot of teams if he wasn't stuck behind Jamal Murray for his entire career thus far. Jeff Green literally started for a championship contending Nets team last year. All of these guys are quality to above-average starting players in this league, and have been for a while. I actually agree with Malone's strategy (playing Jokic as much as they can with the starters then hoping your bench unit can just survive), but it also perfectly illustrates why on/off numbers need context behind them.

I believe you’re a Bucks fan, right? Would any of those guys you mentioned that start on Denver start on the Bucks? Aside from Gordon, do any of them start on the 76ers? Who does Golden State bench for those guys?

It’s a glorified bench unit masquerading as a group of starters. It’d be one heck of a bench unit but their ceiling as starters is quite low.

[Alatan]

Take a look at the lifetime records with Embiid playing and with Jokic playing. Sixers have a better record.

Yes, because Embiid has had much better teammates. Are you really that slow and obtuse?

Embiid has missed 311 games in his career. That's 3.8 full seasons' worth of missed games. Absolutely ridiculous and almost unbelievably bad.

Jokic has missed 26 games in his entire career.

Warned. Keep the basketball discussion, lose the personal attacks on other users.
- js21

Hmmm... I guess Murray and MPJ aren't very good then right? Both are better than Simmons and Tobias.

MPJ for Harris straight up. I bet you no sane or even insane GM would do it.

[eyeatoma]

Yes, because Embiid has had much better teammates. Are you really that slow and obtuse?

Embiid has missed 311 games in his career. That's 3.8 full seasons' worth of missed games. Absolutely ridiculous and almost unbelievably bad.

Jokic has missed 26 games in his entire career.

Warned. Keep the basketball discussion, lose the personal attacks on other users.
- js21

Hmmm... I guess Murray and MPJ aren't very good then right? Both are better than Simmons and Tobias.

MPJ for Harris straight up. I bet you no sane or even insane GM would do it.

Healthy MPJ???? Are you serious? Morey would drive Harris to the airport.

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