2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.2)

[eyeatoma]

Looks like we're over a 100 pages.

Mods can we lock the other thread and make this the new MVP thread?

Top candidates for the MVP at the moment:

Embiid
Jokic
Giannis
Curry
Ja
Durant
Booker
CP3
Luka
DeRozan

Edit: Based on the latest odds I'm removing LeBron and adding Devin Booker instead to the poll.

Latest MVP odds:

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/2/7/22920604/nba-mvp-race-2022-odds-picks-predictions-favorites-joel-embiid-nikola-jokic-ja-morant-devin-booker

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

New poll added as well.

Link to previous thread https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2144040&start=2020

[The High Cyde]

I have it in tiers:

Tier 1:
Jokic
Embiid
Giannis

Tier 2:
Curry
Durant
DeRozan
Paul
Gobert

Tier 3 does not matter. I’m probably missing a player or two, but I think anyone of T1 can take it, with a slight favor to Big Yolk.

[Cubbies2120]

I remember when people said Jokic's PER would fall as we got further into the season. We're over 50 games in now and he's still obliterating the all time record. Gotta be MVP when you consider the historical significance and consider that his team is like -23 when he sits.

[BoatsNZones]

Still, the best player has been Jokic, but he's going to have a tough time winning it as a 6 seed. This is still a race that will be decided post ASB. The same 4 are at the top; Curry/Jokic/Embiid/Giannis. I don't see anyone else making a strong case for it.

[Doctor MJ]

So, I want to clarify some things:

1. You're talking about him getting traded to the 76ers from the Warriors, right?

2. You're talking a Warrior team that lost 11 games in a row with Wilt right before they traded him.

3. You're talking a 76ers team that went 22-23 before Wilt arrived 18-17 after Wilt arrived.

4. You're talking about a team capable of .500 ball without Wilt, and it being an ultimate carry job because they fought the eventual champs hard in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

In general I'm not one to talk about the biggest "carry jobs" of all time - I don't think it's impressive as others do - but '64-65 from Wilt really wouldn't even be on the list if I did.

Jokic on the other hand, well, what he's doing this year really does fit as an extreme "carry job" perhaps beyond what I've ever seen before - though first Cavs LeBron is not easy to top.

1. Yes, I am.

2. Yep, his teammates were absolutely atrocious. They had one player (Thurmond) that was even league average based on PER and WS/48. The rest of the team was absolutely awful, highlighted by their -600 TS Added for the season, sans Wilt's contributions.

3. Fair enough. However, are you seriously stating that Wilt didn't have an outstanding season in 1965? 33.5/24.6/5.2 while setting the all time record for FG% isn't impressive?

4. "Capable of playing .500 ball" isn't exactly a very high bar to set, especially when you're talking about losing by 1 point against a 62-18 team (arguably, the greatest ever to that point), in Game 7 of the ECF.

5. Agreed on Jokic this season without MPJ and Murray for even 1 minute of the season. They (also) only have 1 player (Gordon) who is even league average, and they're still 29-24 in a very strong conference.

Worth noting:

“Jokic is second in the NBA in rebounding, and he’s also the best passer in the league. Denver has been thrashed by injuries, but it still plays like a historically dominant team (plus-12.8 points per 100) as long as Jokic is on the court; when he’s not, the Nuggets play like the worst team in NBA history (minus-15.2 per 100).”

2. I would encourage you to compare the supporting cast from '63-64 to '64-65. I find it to be impossible to justify the team going from 48-32 to 10-28 (what they were with Wilt) based solely on a drop in supporting cast, and in my experience I've never heard anyone try. It's widely stated that Wilt was hurt that season and that's why he was less effective than he'd been the previous year.

3. Didn't have an outstanding season? All depends on what the standards were for "outstanding", but it was a poor Wilt season where he most definitely did not break a FG% record, given that his FG% was less than the year before while scoring less.

Is it amazing he can still put up such big counting stats even when circumstances aren't at the best? Yes...but this goes both ways. If he can keep putting up such big numbers while the team's effectiveness falls off a cliff, then these numbers aren't about impact but simply about how the team chose to play building everything around Wilt being Wilt.

To be clear, I'm happy to say that Wilt at his best had MVP impact, so I'm not saying Wilt was drastically worse across the board than people think, but we do see evidence that his impact varied wildly from year to year with much seeming to vary based on his enthusiasm.

4. .500 not a high bar. I agree, and it's telling that the team continued on at about the same winning rate after Wilt got there. Generally when we talk about "carry jobs", we're talking about a situation where the team is drastically better with him compared to without him, and this wasn't the case for frankly either of Wilt's team's that season.

You're putting a ton of stock in them almost beating the Celtics in the playoffs, and I get why you're enthusiastic about that, but I personally am always reluctant to put too much stock in almost-not-losing as an underdog. In this case, I particularly object because Wilt was on the team as they were playing .500 ball, and all those other guys were on the team when they almost beat the Celtics. To me you're talking as if he showed up on a team that was utterly stuck in mediocrity and immediately transformed it, but the reality is more like a team that began finding its groove...and let's note it wasn't until not one but two years later when they were truly able to break through together playing a style where Wilt scored less, and from there the rest of the core continued to be a strong winning team after Wilt left them.

So yeah, in general, while it is worth pointing out the tough fight the '64-65 76ers gave the Celtics in the playoffs that year, I'm very reluctant to see this as an outlier of a year unless you consider every Wilt year an outlier of a year. I would consider it to be among the worst years Wilt played in his prime.

But we do agree on Jokic.

[Doctor MJ]

I remember when people said Jokic's PER would fall as we got further into the season. We're over 50 games in now and he's still obliterating the all time record. Gotta be MVP when you consider the historical significance and consider that his team is like -23 when he sits.

In fairness, people said that because that's what always happens. It's completely outside the realm of basketball experience that you start with beyond-Jordan PER and then add to your lead over the course of the year volume scoring on 70+ TS%.

[Packbuckman]

I remember when people said Jokic's PER would fall as we got further into the season. We're over 50 games in now and he's still obliterating the all time record. Gotta be MVP when you consider the historical significance and consider that his team is like -23 when he sits.

In fairness, people said that because that's what always happens. It's completely outside the realm of basketball experience that you start with beyond-Jordan PER and then add to your lead over the course of the year volume scoring on 70+ TS%.

This is not a PER award but all 3 of Giannis Embiid and Jokic are all over 31. I like Giannis Defense better than other two Giannis improvement in free throws shooting I can see his PER rising with the bucks healthy I can see them going on a run for that top seed.

[Ballerhogger]

Have
Embiid
Jokic
Giannis
as my top 3.

Embiid leading scorer right now , has slightly better record than jokic, Jokic putting up amazing numbers. Its rather close but right now Embiid is my front runner. Jokic has hurdle of becoming back to back mvp. Voter fatigue is thing in this NBA media eyes.

[BoatsNZones]

Have
Embiid
Jokic
Giannis
as my top 3.

Embiid leading scorer right now and very good record with not a lot help outside of maxey. Jokic is putting up amazing numbers but his team record is not very close the 76ers.

They're actually only 3 games back from the Sixers and have the better SRS. Neither team records are MVP caliber though.

[Ballerhogger]

Have
Embiid
Jokic
Giannis
as my top 3.

Embiid leading scorer right now and very good record with not a lot help outside of maxey. Jokic is putting up amazing numbers but his team record is not very close the 76ers.

They're actually only 3 games back from the Sixers and have the better SRS. Neither team records are MVP caliber though.

i thought there was more separation.. Thanks for the correction

[Doctor MJ]

I remember when people said Jokic's PER would fall as we got further into the season. We're over 50 games in now and he's still obliterating the all time record. Gotta be MVP when you consider the historical significance and consider that his team is like -23 when he sits.

In fairness, people said that because that's what always happens. It's completely outside the realm of basketball experience that you start with beyond-Jordan PER and then add to your lead over the course of the year volume scoring on 70+ TS%.

This is not a PER award but all 3 of Giannis Embiid and Jokic are all over 31. I like Giannis Defense better than other two Giannis improvement in free throws shooting I can see his PER rising with the bucks healthy I can see them going on a run for that top seed.

Right so there's a bunch of backstory in the other thread, but suffice to say I've not been bringing PER up, and am much more likely to point to evidence of impact through +/- based stats where - this year - Jokic has a far bigger league. This is not a stat that's "anti-Giannis" - Giannis looked like the MVP there when he was last on his way to an MVP - but this year, while I get the theory that Giannis' defense makes up for Jokic's offense, it isn't holding up by the data I see.

[greekbuck34]

In fairness, people said that because that's what always happens. It's completely outside the realm of basketball experience that you start with beyond-Jordan PER and then add to your lead over the course of the year volume scoring on 70+ TS%.

This is not a PER award but all 3 of Giannis Embiid and Jokic are all over 31. I like Giannis Defense better than other two Giannis improvement in free throws shooting I can see his PER rising with the bucks healthy I can see them going on a run for that top seed.

Right so there's a bunch of backstory in the other thread, but suffice to say I've not been bringing PER up, and am much more likely to point to evidence of impact through +/- based stats where - this year - Jokic has a far bigger league. This is not a stat that's "anti-Giannis" - Giannis looked like the MVP there when he was last on his way to an MVP - but this year, while I get the theory that Giannis' defense makes up for Jokic's offense, it isn't holding up by the data I see.

Based on the data this season Jokic is 1 tier above Giannis and 2 tiers above Embiid defensively. This is simply a joke and even the analysts who make those tools know that. There is not a single player or coach or fan with eyes who will take Jokic over DPOY players like Giannis or Embiid for a defensive stop. He is not better or even close to the same tier as them. I bet even Jokic will laugh if he hears that.

[falcolombardi]

This is not a PER award but all 3 of Giannis Embiid and Jokic are all over 31. I like Giannis Defense better than other two Giannis improvement in free throws shooting I can see his PER rising with the bucks healthy I can see them going on a run for that top seed.

Right so there's a bunch of backstory in the other thread, but suffice to say I've not been bringing PER up, and am much more likely to point to evidence of impact through +/- based stats where - this year - Jokic has a far bigger league. This is not a stat that's "anti-Giannis" - Giannis looked like the MVP there when he was last on his way to an MVP - but this year, while I get the theory that Giannis' defense makes up for Jokic's offense, it isn't holding up by the data I see.

Based on the data this season Jokic is 1 tier above Giannis and 2 tiers above Embiid defensively. This is simply a joke and even the analysts who make those tools know that. There is not a single player or coach or fan with eyes who will take Jokic over DPOY players like Giannis or Embiid for a defensive stop. He is not better or even close to the same tier as them. I bet even Jokic will laugh if he hears that.

i agree with the caveat that just because giannis is a much better defender at full engagement/effort doesnt necesarrily mean he is playing like that this regular season

sometimes great defensive players who carry a big offensive load just end up taking smaller load defensively whether for aging or for Energy conservatiom and preserving their best for playofgs or key stretches

it happened with kawhi and lebron, and it is not impossible it may be happening to giannis

it would explain why bucks, for example, had a worse rey season defense in 2021 than the year before despite upgrading with jrue over bledsoe (but better in playoffs)

[brettski]

Right so there's a bunch of backstory in the other thread, but suffice to say I've not been bringing PER up, and am much more likely to point to evidence of impact through +/- based stats where - this year - Jokic has a far bigger league. This is not a stat that's "anti-Giannis" - Giannis looked like the MVP there when he was last on his way to an MVP - but this year, while I get the theory that Giannis' defense makes up for Jokic's offense, it isn't holding up by the data I see.

Based on the data this season Jokic is 1 tier above Giannis and 2 tiers above Embiid defensively. This is simply a joke and even the analysts who make those tools know that. There is not a single player or coach or fan with eyes who will take Jokic over DPOY players like Giannis or Embiid for a defensive stop. He is not better or even close to the same tier as them. I bet even Jokic will laugh if he hears that.

i agree with the caveat that just because giannis is a much better defender at full engagement/effort doesnt necesarrily mean he is playing like that this regular season

sometimes great defensive players who carry a big offensive load just end up taking smaller load defensively whether for aging or for Energy conservatiom and preserving their best for playofgs or key stretches

it happened with kawhi and lebron, and it is not impossible it may be happening to giannis

it would explain why bucks, for example, had a worse rey season defense in 2021 than the year before despite upgrading with jrue over bledsoe (but better in playoffs)

Its probably more a role thing with Giannis. He's had to play a lot more at Centre instead of being the "free safety" on defense he can be when Lopez anchors the post. I don't think he's coasting, it's not who he is, its that he's had to play a role that isn't best suited to him to fill a gap.

[greekbuck34]

Right so there's a bunch of backstory in the other thread, but suffice to say I've not been bringing PER up, and am much more likely to point to evidence of impact through +/- based stats where - this year - Jokic has a far bigger league. This is not a stat that's "anti-Giannis" - Giannis looked like the MVP there when he was last on his way to an MVP - but this year, while I get the theory that Giannis' defense makes up for Jokic's offense, it isn't holding up by the data I see.

Based on the data this season Jokic is 1 tier above Giannis and 2 tiers above Embiid defensively. This is simply a joke and even the analysts who make those tools know that. There is not a single player or coach or fan with eyes who will take Jokic over DPOY players like Giannis or Embiid for a defensive stop. He is not better or even close to the same tier as them. I bet even Jokic will laugh if he hears that.

i agree with the caveat that just because giannis is a much better defender at full engagement/effort doesnt necesarrily mean he is playing like that this regular season

sometimes great defensive players who carry a big offensive load just end up taking smaller load defensively whether for aging or for Energy conservatiom and preserving their best for playofgs or key stretches

it happened with kawhi and lebron, and it is not impossible it may be happening to giannis

it would explain why bucks, for example, had a worse rey season defense in 2021 than the year before despite upgrading with jrue over bledsoe (but better in playoffs)

With Brook Lopez out Giannis is the only rim protector available in the squad. Nobody else can protect the rim. No room for cruising in that side of the court for him(Rim protection/rebounding). He struggled a lot fatique wise early in the season when the entire squad was injured and he had to do everything on both sides but right now we look pretty well defensively at least protecting the rim which is the most important overall even without Lopez.

His stats look ok compared to Draymond Green for example who is of the same tier or Embiid. But just look at Jokic. This simply can not be the reality. He can be better than someone for a season if the other guy has an off year but there is no way every single DPOY center/rim protector to be so much worse than Jokic at the same time after 50 games. I don't understand how this is possible based on the eye check up. Probably because the lineups Malone uses when Jokic sits down are so garbage they make even the Nuggets defense with Jokic as the main rim protector look elite and in the end that inflates his advanced stats.

Giannis DFG% at the rim btw is 48.7%(best in the league) and better than even guys who are just doing this thing and nothing else like Gobert and Jarrett Allen and Jokic's sits at 66.3% which is way worse than the league average. He is a pure center, his rim protection sucks yet his stats make him look like he is Mutombo 3.0.

Read on Twitter

[moderndarwin]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

[greekbuck34]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

Because he had one the coldest months a superstar can possible get. He was so brutal with his constant 3-21 nights the media had to start ignoring him after a while. If he gets his groove back and the Warriors keep fighting for the 1st seed he will become one of the favourites once again by the end of the season.

[BoatsNZones]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

Because he had one the coldest months a superstar can possible get. He was so brutal with his constant 3-21 nights the media had to start ignoring him after a while. If he gets his groove back and the Warriors keep fighting for the 1st seed he will become one of the favourites once again by the end of the season.

26/6/8 on 49/48/95 the past 5 games; seems like he finally turned the corner. Combined with their record (especially lately without Draymond) and his advanced stats always maintaining near the top of the NBA through his shooting slump (his game overall was still great), he's definitely still right at the top of the list. I don't think there's a clear favorite right now though.

[Crives]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

Booker has been better and he’s got the better record

[BoatsNZones]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

Booker has been better and he’s got the better record

Then Curry??? By literally no metric or logic is that true lol. CP has clearly been the Suns MVP anyway. He leads their team in WS/BPM/EPM/VORP/RAPTOR,+/-, etc. The Suns don't have a legit MVP candidate though; they're just a ridiculously well balanced squad.