2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.2)

[Crives]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

Booker has been better and he’s got the better record

Then Curry??? By literally no metric or logic is that true lol. CP has clearly been the Suns MVP anyway. He leads their team in WS/BPM/EPM/VORP/RAPTOR,+/-, etc. The Suns don't have a legit MVP candidate though; they're just a ridiculously well balanced squad.

By no metric or logic?
Better record. Clutch scoring/efficiency. Best player on best nba team.

[falcolombardi]

Based on the data this season Jokic is 1 tier above Giannis and 2 tiers above Embiid defensively. This is simply a joke and even the analysts who make those tools know that. There is not a single player or coach or fan with eyes who will take Jokic over DPOY players like Giannis or Embiid for a defensive stop. He is not better or even close to the same tier as them. I bet even Jokic will laugh if he hears that.

i agree with the caveat that just because giannis is a much better defender at full engagement/effort doesnt necesarrily mean he is playing like that this regular season

sometimes great defensive players who carry a big offensive load just end up taking smaller load defensively whether for aging or for Energy conservatiom and preserving their best for playofgs or key stretches

it happened with kawhi and lebron, and it is not impossible it may be happening to giannis

it would explain why bucks, for example, had a worse rey season defense in 2021 than the year before despite upgrading with jrue over bledsoe (but better in playoffs)

With Brook Lopez out Giannis is the only rim protector available in the squad. Nobody else can protect the rim. No room for cruising in that side of the court for him(Rim protection/rebounding). He struggled a lot fatique wise early in the season when the entire squad was injured and he had to do everything on both sides but right now we look pretty well defensively at least protecting the rim which is the most important overall even without Lopez.

His stats look ok compared to Draymond Green for example who is of the same tier or Embiid. But just look at Jokic. This simply can not be the reality. He can be better than someone for a season if the other guy has an off year but there is no way every single DPOY center/rim protector to be so much worse than Jokic at the same time after 50 games. I don't understand how this is possible based on the eye check up. Probably because the lineups Malone uses when Jokic sits down are so garbage they make even the Nuggets defense with Jokic as the main rim protector look elite and in the end that inflates his advanced stats.

Giannis DFG% at the rim btw is 48.7%(best in the league) and better than even guys who are just doing this thing and nothing else like Gobert and Jarrett Allen and Jokic's sits at 66.3% which is way worse than the league average. He is a pure center, his rim protection sucks yet his stats make him look like he is Mutombo 3.0.

Read on Twitter

ok, wtf?

now THAT is a bad data point for jokic, one among countless good ones to be sure, but worrying coming the playoffs

[BoatsNZones]

Booker has been better and he’s got the better record

Then Curry??? By literally no metric or logic is that true lol. CP has clearly been the Suns MVP anyway. He leads their team in WS/BPM/EPM/VORP/RAPTOR,+/-, etc. The Suns don't have a legit MVP candidate though; they're just a ridiculously well balanced squad.

By no metric or logic?
Better record. Clutch scoring/efficiency. Best player on best nba team.

OK, Booker's clutch numbers are a highly efficient 2.9/0.4/0.3 in the final 5 minutes of tight games (53 total minutes). Not exactly a worthy sample size when discussing an MVP bid, although yes that's a nice feather to have in the cap if the rest of his playing time corroborated that level of play. It doesn't though. Again, he's also not their best player (he's just their highest volume scorer). An argument could be made that the Warriors are the better team as well. They have the #1 SRS and beat the Suns 2 games to 1 so far this season.

As far as stats that Curry has over Booker (many of them significantly so), we have:

PPG/RPG/APG/SPG/BPG, TS%, PER, WinShares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR, LEBRON, EPM, +/-... and I don't know any other stats so I guess that's it.

Booker's having a great, All Star worthy season. He's not an MVP or in that discussion.

[Lala870]

Why is Booker an option here? If he's an option might as well add 20 other players as well

[Lala870]

-Warriors have won 9 in a row
-No Dray
-He leads the league in plus / minus
-He’s averaging 25, 6, 7.5, 2 steals on 47%, 91% with 4.4 tres a game over past two weeks.

Remind me again why it’s not Steph? Was listening to all the smoke and they had him as MVP.

Booker has been better and he’s got the better record

[greekbuck34]

Giannis DFG% at the rim btw is 48.7%(best in the league) and better than even guys who are just doing this thing and nothing else like Gobert and Jarrett Allen and Jokic's sits at 66.3% which is way worse than the league average. He is a pure center, his rim protection sucks yet his stats make him look like he is Mutombo 3.0.

ok, wtf?

now THAT is a bad data point for jokic, one among countless good ones to be sure, but worrying coming the playoffs

I don't blame him specifically. No player can be perfect. He is too slow and can't jump high enough to guard and contest semi-quick or athletic guards/small forwards so the Nuggets have to hide him on defense or allow easy layups in return everytime a team targets him just like that random guy from the Pelicans the other night. It's just absurd to me how the advanced stats can make him look like clear cut DPOY of the season while he is so obviously average at best in this specific side of the court.

[eyeatoma]

Why is Booker an option here? If he's an option might as well add 20 other players as well

Based on the vegas odds, read the first post. I agree he's not in the running at all, but going by Vegas odds seems to be one of the fairest ways to decide.

[falcolombardi]

ok, wtf?

now THAT is a bad data point for jokic, one among countless good ones to be sure, but worrying coming the playoffs

I don't blame him specifically. No player can be perfect. He is too slow and can't jump high enough to guard and contest semi-quick or athletic guards/small forwards so the Nuggets have to hide him on defense or allow easy layups in return everytime a team targets him just like that random guy from the Pelicans the other night. It's just absurd to me how the advanced stats can make him look like clear cut DPOY of the season while he is so obviously average at best in this specific side of the court.

what are the stats that make him look like dpoy? are they Box score ones by any chance ?

[LukaTheGOAT]

The Nuggets have a +10 Net Rating with Jokic on the floor this year.

For reference, the '01 Lakers with both Kobe AND Shaq on the floor were a +9.4.

In all of NBA history, only 1 player has ever averaged at least 25 PPG on 62.0 eFG% over an entire season.

That player is Steph Curry in the 2015-16 unanimous MVP season.

Nikola Jokic is currently on pace to join him, at 25.9 PPG and 62.1 eFG%.

[Infinite Llamas]

ok, wtf?

now THAT is a bad data point for jokic, one among countless good ones to be sure, but worrying coming the playoffs

I don't blame him specifically. No player can be perfect. He is too slow and can't jump high enough to guard and contest semi-quick or athletic guards/small forwards so the Nuggets have to hide him on defense or allow easy layups in return everytime a team targets him just like that random guy from the Pelicans the other night. It's just absurd to me how the advanced stats can make him look like clear cut DPOY of the season while he is so obviously average at best in this specific side of the court.

I mean, not every team can have a stud perimeter defender like Holiday to stop guards from getting into that paint at will. Watch Denver and you’ll see how guys routinely blow by Monte Morris and Campazzo. Jokic would have six fouls in the first quarter but if he tried to challenge every shot there. He picks his spots. He’s surrounded by underwhelming defenders and it’s a shame that Gary Harris game succumbed to injuries in Denver because he was very useful for Jokic and cutting down on lane attacks.

[Dutchball97]

I don't blame him specifically. No player can be perfect. He is too slow and can't jump high enough to guard and contest semi-quick or athletic guards/small forwards so the Nuggets have to hide him on defense or allow easy layups in return everytime a team targets him just like that random guy from the Pelicans the other night. It's just absurd to me how the advanced stats can make him look like clear cut DPOY of the season while he is so obviously average at best in this specific side of the court.

what are the stats that make him look like dpoy? are they Box score ones by any chance ?

He's 2nd behind Gobert in D-RAPTOR and that isn't just based on boxscore stats. He's 18th in D-LEBRON and 45th in D-EPM but he's ahead of both Embiid and Giannis there as well. Maybe not quite DPOY-level but even the stats not based purely on the boxscore have him as an elite defender this season.

[BelgradeNugget]

i agree with the caveat that just because giannis is a much better defender at full engagement/effort doesnt necesarrily mean he is playing like that this regular season

sometimes great defensive players who carry a big offensive load just end up taking smaller load defensively whether for aging or for Energy conservatiom and preserving their best for playofgs or key stretches

it happened with kawhi and lebron, and it is not impossible it may be happening to giannis

it would explain why bucks, for example, had a worse rey season defense in 2021 than the year before despite upgrading with jrue over bledsoe (but better in playoffs)

With Brook Lopez out Giannis is the only rim protector available in the squad. Nobody else can protect the rim. No room for cruising in that side of the court for him(Rim protection/rebounding). He struggled a lot fatique wise early in the season when the entire squad was injured and he had to do everything on both sides but right now we look pretty well defensively at least protecting the rim which is the most important overall even without Lopez.

His stats look ok compared to Draymond Green for example who is of the same tier or Embiid. But just look at Jokic. This simply can not be the reality. He can be better than someone for a season if the other guy has an off year but there is no way every single DPOY center/rim protector to be so much worse than Jokic at the same time after 50 games. I don't understand how this is possible based on the eye check up. Probably because the lineups Malone uses when Jokic sits down are so garbage they make even the Nuggets defense with Jokic as the main rim protector look elite and in the end that inflates his advanced stats.

Giannis DFG% at the rim btw is 48.7%(best in the league) and better than even guys who are just doing this thing and nothing else like Gobert and Jarrett Allen and Jokic's sits at 66.3% which is way worse than the league average. He is a pure center, his rim protection sucks yet his stats make him look like he is Mutombo 3.0.

Read on Twitter

ok, wtf?

now THAT is a bad data point for jokic, one among countless good ones to be sure, but worrying coming the playoffs

Funny thing with this pic is what you get when you take Jokic out. That way the best defensive players are Giannis, CP3, Draymond and on top of the list you can see players like Gobert, Murray, Butler, Williams, Thybulle, Smart, Embiid, Bridges. Everything is OK, right. Worst defenders are Young, Dame, Simons, Green, Hield, Gordon... The best offensive players are Giannis, Embiid, Young, Ja, KD, Steph, LeBron. We all know that. So only thing that stands out in that picture is Jokic. And I thought maybe, just maybe, he knows better than an average NBA fan what is he doing and what he should do to help his team win if he is not good rim protector as we all know. And maybe, just maybe, rim protection is not everything defensively. That is what SAS or Nick Wrong will tell you but somehow I'm ready to trust more in what Jokic is doing than what they think he should be doing.

[DutchManDanFan]

Jokic is a great player ofcourse, but for me he’s not in the top 3. Every superstar is supposed to lead a bad team to the playoffs. That’s what makes them superstars above other allstars. I’m quite sure if Giannis was in his place he does the same (or better). Maybe the way Denver plays is the best way for winning games. But the way they play certainly helps Jokic to get the best possible stats.
Stats look great but winning games is all that matters. The Suns record is far more impressive to me. If you leave one player out would their record collaps? I think it would if it was CP3. Still a play-off team but nowhere near the 1 seed. This is what determines true value.

The goal of competition is to get the best record. If the goal in the NBA is only to get in the playoffs, then you can give the award to the player with the best looking stats. But I don’t agree. The RS determines home court and a good matchup for the playoffs. A great team record should count a lot in the MVP race. The difference in record between Suns/GSW and all other teams is too large to ignore.

I know I stand alone in this opinion but I don’t care. For me it’s 1. CP3, 2. Steph, 3. Embiid and then Giannis, Jokic, Morant, Luka and Booker. Giannis and Jokic can still win it (for me) if they improve their team record a lot.

[Johnny Firpo]

This thing is totally coming down to Jokic, Embiid and Giannis. The player who finishes the strongest will likely win it, provided that all three teams are within 3-4 games maximum.

[BelgradeNugget]

Jokic is a great player ofcourse, but for me he’s not in the top 3. Every superstar is supposed to lead a bad team to the playoffs. That’s what makes them superstars above other allstars. I’m quite sure if Giannis was in his place he does the same (or better). Maybe the way Denver plays is the best way for winning games. But the way they play certainly helps Jokic to get the best possible stats.
Stats look great but winning games is all that matters. The Suns record is far more impressive to me. If you leave one player out would their record collaps? I think it would if it was CP3. Still a play-off team but nowhere near the 1 seed. This is what determines true value.

The goal of competition is to get the best record. If the goal in the NBA is only to get in the playoffs, then you can give the award to the player with the best looking stats. But I don’t agree. The RS determines home court and a good matchup for the playoffs. A great team record should count a lot in the MVP race. The difference in record between Suns/GSW and all other teams is too large to ignore.

I know I stand alone in this opinion but I don’t care. For me it’s 1. CP3, 2. Steph, 3. Embiid and then Giannis, Jokic, Morant, Luka and Booker. Giannis and Jokic can still win it (for me) if they improve their team record a lot.

By that logic it is 1. CP3, 2. Booker, 3. Steph, 4. Morant, 5. Jimmy, 6. Lowry, 7. Giannis, 8. DeRozan, 9. LaVine, 10. Allen, 11. Garland, 12. Gobert, 13. Embiid...

[AussieBuck]

Should be just a fight between the three big dudes but I suppose we have to keep second guessing the media personalities that get to vote. I'm going to just ignore the other dudes and consider what should be the main trio. Jokic is my playing the best favourite and I guess he's playing against the end difference between his team record and the best guy in the East.

Good news in the other conference is that Giannis and Embiid still have three games left against each other to sort out the pecking order.

[kazyv]

i'm sorry, but the lineup talking point needs to die. looking at the top two lineups for the nuggets, it's like 600 minutes with 4 of the same players vs almost 500 minutes for Embiid with a core 4 players. but he also played 5 games less, so that checks out.

but what's more, the nuggets fourths most played lineup is one without jokic and with all of the starters at 70 minutes total. for sixers, the third most common at 67 minutes is one without embiid, curry, harris and maxey.

while the lineup of starters with drummond only ever played 50 minutes. so if anything, jokic is at a disadvantage there.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/2022/lineups/
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2022/lineups/

now giannis has more of a case in terms of diverse lineups, but then again, he is playing on a much deeper and better team, so that's only natural

[Mr Puddles]

Why is Booker an option here? If he's an option might as well add 20 other players as well

Booker is in the same tier as guys like DeRozan, Paul, Young etc. Not a serious contender like Embiid, Jokic, Giannis - but definitely top 10. Record also weighs heavy in MVP voting.

I'd love to see what mental gymnastics you can apply to come up with 20 additional players who are supposedly in the same tier as Booker in the MVP race though. That should provide a good laugh.

[DutchManDanFan]

By that logic it is 1. CP3, 2. Booker, 3. Steph, 4. Morant, 5. Jimmy, 6. Lowry, 7. Giannis, 8. DeRozan, 9. LaVine, 10. Allen, 11. Garland, 12. Gobert, 13. Embiid...

Nope. The logic is not only about team record. But it definitely is not only about stats as well.

[DutchManDanFan]

Now giannis has more of a case in terms of diverse lineups, but then again, he is playing on a much deeper and better team, so that's only natural

That's why the Denver bench destroyed the Bucks bench 59-26?