CrimsonCrew wrote:thesack12 wrote:2019 stats of interest to me:
In 2019 the 49ers were #1 NFL in explosive pass plays with 12%, Tampa was tied for #2 with 11%.
Jimmy's yards/attempt was 8.4 (2nd), Winston's was 8.1 (4th)
Jimmy's net yards/Attempt was 7.4 (3rd), Winston's was 7.2 (4th)
49ers yards gained per pass play was 6.0 (5th), Tampa's was 5.9 (6th)
Jimmy's pass TD % was 5.8%, Jameis was 5.2%
Jimmy's bad throw % was 13.7 (4th), Winston was 20.6 (29th)
Jimmy's yards per completion was 12.2 (6th), Winston's was 13.4 (1st)
So the 49ers actually had a more successful/effective/efficient passing game than the Buccaneers.
All these stats just further strengthen my opinion that Air yards/depth of target, etc are quite over-rated. Despite the shorter more conservative passing system Jimmy's 49ers are always able to be successful moving the ball and gain yards. In fact in his healthy years, the 49ers passing attack are rated in the very tippy top of the NFL.
While air yards/depth of target are important, I'm not trying to say they aren't, I just don't see Jimmy's short game being nearly as much of a detriment to the overall offense as some people make it out to be. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at moving the football, and getting those explosive plays as well. Its just not as exciting or pretty as we all would like to see.
As for turnovers, of course Jimmy struggles with those. A lot of QB's do. But for me, when trying to compare a guy that literally lead the league in most turnover metrics for several years it makes that segment of the discussion a non-starter. The idea is to talk about who might be a better option here.
You're right, Winston's career is not over and we may have yet to see his best football. But that cuts both ways as well. We might not have seen Jimbo's best football either. Winston has 77 starts under his belt, Jimmy only has 47. So in essence, Winston has almost 2 seasons more experience. So his upside/potential argument is deteriorating quickly, he's more likely than not already close to his ceiling.
As for contract, I VERY much disagree that its irrelevant. This league is perpetually starved for QB's. Therefore they routinely get drastically overpaid and a lot of guys get many more bites at the apple than they deserve. So the fact that Winston took a 1 year minimum to be a backup, tells me that he is probably not all that highly regarded around the NFL and didn't have too many options. Even with him returning to the Saints this past season, he only got $5.5 mil guaranteed which is peanuts for a QB, and wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into training camp. He had to beat out Taysom (offensive weapon, not a full time QB) Hill. We'll see what kind of market/opportunities he will find this offseason.
I credit our offensive scheme for that success more than I do Garoppolo. Hell, Mullens was arguably more productive in generating explosive plays than Garoppolo was, though he didn't win games. And it's hard to say that Jimmy's 49ers are "always" able to be successful moving the ball when we're coming out of a postseason when we had two passing TDs, failed to crack 20 points twice (granted weather influenced that in one game), and the season ended in a three-point loss because we had two consecutive drives that failed to generate a single yard of offense - on the heels of a drive that petered out after losing yardage on 2nd and 1.
Sure Jimmy doesn't have all that many starts, but he's been in the league for years now, and his career trajectory has plateaued. It may have even regressed a bit. On the other hand, Winston was thrust onto the field before he was ready, was overwhelmed initially, but is coming off what is almost certainly his best seven-game span as a pro. Of the two, it's pretty clear that he has more room to grow, though again, far from a guarantee he'll take those strides or land in a situation where he can.
As far as the contract, again, it is irrelevant what he signed for two years ago. At that time, he was coming off a season in which he was a turnover machine. It's like arguing that the Chiefs were crazy to trade for Alex Smith in the 2013 offseason because he was awful in the 2010 season (and every prior season). However, like Smith in 2011 and 2012, Winston showed that in the right situation, he could rein in those bad decisions and protect the football. It's not a perfect analogy, as Smith played a lot more games in that span and wasn't coming off injury, but it's pretty close. A healthy Winston would get more than Mariota this year for sure, assuming he more or less maintained the level of play he exhibited over the first seven weeks, and would likely be looking at a pretty significant offer somewhere.
Yeah, I'm aware that people are allergic to giving Jimmy any credit whatsoever.
As for explosive plays 9ers were #1 in 2019, #1 in 2021 and #11 in 2020. So no, Nick Mullens was not able to supply the same amount of explosive plays.
The season long averages speak for themselves, and with Jimmy at the helm 9ers have always been at the top of offensive metrics and being able to move the ball. #1 in yards per play overall and #1 in pass yards per play this year, btw.
I also realize there is this myth out there that in obvious pass situations Jimmy wilts and falls on his face and he isn't clutch. But lets look into this a bit...
In 15 regular season games Jimmy played, 9ers scored 57 Points (6 TD's, 5 FG's) in the final 2 minutes before halftime. So they got points before just before the half in 11/15 games, which is remarkably good. However, they only got 3 points in such situations in the playoffs.
Week 3 vs packers: 9ers down 6 with 2:39 left. Go on a 8 play 75 yard Go ahead TD drive. D can't hold in the final 37 seconds.
Week 13 @ Seattle: 9ers down 7 with 4:03 left. Go on a 12 play 95 yard drive, Sherfield gets mugged in the end zone but no flag
Week 14 @ Cincy: Tie game with 1:19 left. Go on a 10 play 50 yard drive and Gould misses the GW 47 yard FG
Week 14 @ Cincy: Down by 3 in OT needing to score a TD. 9ers go on a 7 play 75 yard GW TD drive
Week 18 @ Rams (Have to win to get into the playoffs): Down by 7 with 1:27 left. 9ers go 5 plays 88 yard game tying TD drive
Week 18 @ Rams: Tie game in OT go on a 9 play 62 yard FG drive that winds up being a GW drive.
Playoffs @ Green Bay: Sub zero temps with snow flying: Tie game with 3:20 left. 9ers go on 9 play 44 yard GW FG drive.
Speaking of the Green Bay playoff game, we're not going put any thought into the 3 egregious drops by Aiyuk/Kittle/Jennings? Any of which if caught probably changes the flow of that game (most especially Kittle's.) As for the 2nd and 1 situation in the NFCCG, are we really going to pin losing yardage on running plays on 2nd @ 3rd down on Jimmy? Allrighty then, tough crowd.
Obviously, there are several games to look back on where Jimmy and the 9ers didn't get the job done in crunch time/obvious passing situations. My point is, the myth that the 49ers win games mostly despite Jimmy Garoppolo is unfounded in reality. The offense is routinely rated at the top of the NFL and the 49ers consistently win games and make deep playoff runs. That just does not happen if your QB is terrible or defenses don't respect your passing game.
To reign this back into a Jameis Winston debate for a minute: As for contracts, Take a look at the QB contracts signed in 2020:
Teddy Bridgewater: 3 years 63 mil
Tom Brady: 2 years 50 mil
Philip Rivers: 1 year 25 mil
Case Keenum: 3 years 18 mil
Marcus Mariota: 2 years 17.6 mil
Chase Daniel: 3 years 13 mil
Jeff Driskel: 2 years 5 mil
Andy Dalton: 1 year 3 mil
Colt McCoy: 1 year 2.2 mil
Cam Newton: 1 year 1.7 mil
Joe Flacco: 1 year 1.5 mil
Geno Smith: 1 year 1.2 mil
Mike Glennon: 1 year 1.2 mil
Blaine Gabbert: 1 year 1.2 mil
Jameis Winston: 1 year 1.1 mil
Matt Moore: 1 year 1 mil
Brian Hoyer: 1 year 1 mil
Brett Hundley: 1 year 1 mil
Looking at that list there is absolutely no way that someone will be able to convince me that contracts are irrelevant. I don't expect to be able to change your mind either, I'm just giving you some data that leads me to my opinion.
While Winston was coming off a 35 Turnover season, it in a lot of ways was also his best season. I just don't see the NFL as valuing Jameis Winston all that highly. Like I said earlier, we will see what kind of market he finds this offseason.
In any event, I'm personally pretty much over talking about Jameis Winston. I'll happily read/consider any rebuttal thoughts you might have, but I'm not really interested in continuing the Winston debate.