2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.2)

[ty 4191]

[
It is always a combination of factors but you can't win MVP if you don't stand out from your competition in at least one major way. Sure you can go with Giannis or Embiid because they have a slightly better record than Jokic and slightly better stats than Curry but at that point you're nearing nitpicking to create an argument for your preferred candidate.

Is Jokic not standing out in at least one major way?

[cpower]

[
It is always a combination of factors but you can't win MVP if you don't stand out from your competition in at least one major way. Sure you can go with Giannis or Embiid because they have a slightly better record than Jokic and slightly better stats than Curry but at that point you're nearing nitpicking to create an argument for your preferred candidate.

Is Jokic not standing out in at least one major way?

i would say no, he is the best player but having a worst record after coming off a MVP season.. I think Jokic is out of the race.

[Bobbcats]

I do find it a bit surprising how Curry seemingly has dropped from the MVP convo. His boxscore stats might not be the most spectacular but he's still like 9th in WS and 5th in VORP. Then look at the advanced stats incorporating +- (EPM, RAPTOR and LEBRON) and he's really only behind Jokic.

To me it looks like you go for Jokic if you strictly vote for the best/most valuable player or Curry if you want a top player on a top team. Giannis and to a lesser extent Embiid have a path to the award as well but I'm not sure based on what criteria you could vote for them over Jokic and Curry right now.

I guess the slump has damaged the publics perception too much for Curry to get his due.

The niche he was occupying of best player on best team is gone. With his slumping his team has lost more and CP3 closed the gap statistically so you can't even clearly say best stats on a top 2 team, so you have to go full gravity and the less mainstream advanced stats to find an argument for Curry.

CP3 without the slump (57%TS) is not shooting better than Curry with the slump(59%TS) and also CP3 is probably only 5% better than the 2nd best player on his team. The suns having a great season but CP3 is just having a ok season. Its the media trying to push for him, he does not deserve it.

Curry obviously having a fantastic season, why would you think their team is 2nd in the league without most of Green and Klay played?

Believe it or not there are stats besides TS% so the point was you can't say Curry is clearly better statistically. CP3 is #3 in WS for example vs #11 for Curry. I agree CP3 is definitely not MVP but neither is Curry, and Curry's strongest argument was the best player on best team team which it looks doubtful he can retake, nor is he separated by being the only elite player on an elite team (because if you consider his play this season elite, so is CP3's IMO).

[cpower]

The niche he was occupying of best player on best team is gone. With his slumping his team has lost more and CP3 closed the gap statistically so you can't even clearly say best stats on a top 2 team, so you have to go full gravity and the less mainstream advanced stats to find an argument for Curry.

CP3 without the slump (57%TS) is not shooting better than Curry with the slump(59%TS) and also CP3 is probably only 5% better than the 2nd best player on his team. The suns having a great season but CP3 is just having a ok season. Its the media trying to push for him, he does not deserve it.

Curry obviously having a fantastic season, why would you think their team is 2nd in the league without most of Green and Klay played?

Believe it or not there are stats besides TS% so the point was you can't say Curry is clearly better statistically. CP3 is #3 in WS for example vs #11 for Curry. I agree CP3 is definitely not MVP but neither is Curry, and Curry's strongest argument was the best player on best team team which it looks doubtful he can retake, nor is he separated by being the only elite player on an elite team (because if you consider his play this season elite, so is CP3's IMO).

WS is a boxscore and does not account for the things not showing up on the boxscore. Would you check the EPM and RAPM numbers? Sun's 2nd and 3rd players are so much better than warriors and its not even close. To say CP3 is having an equally good season as Curry is pretty laughable. And I am not saying Curry will win MVP i believe that would be Embiid.

[ty 4191]

i would say no, he is the best player but having a worst record after coming off a MVP season.. I think Jokic is out of the race.

You don't think the voters realize/will realize that the Nuggets played an entire season with bench players, instead of their 2nd and 3rd best players (MPJ and Murray) who (likely) missed the entire season?

[cpower]

i would say no, he is the best player but having a worst record after coming off a MVP season.. I think Jokic is out of the race.

You don't think the voters realize/will realize that they played an entire season with bench players, instead of their 2nd and 3rd best players, who (likely) missed the entire season?

no, thats a part of the game. What if the players come back and Denver still not winning the west? Plus most MVP winners are coming from top 3 records in the league, i cant imagine Jokic winning 2 MVPs because his team let him down.. if that was the case MJ would have won another 2 MVPs at least.

[Dutchball97]

[
It is always a combination of factors but you can't win MVP if you don't stand out from your competition in at least one major way. Sure you can go with Giannis or Embiid because they have a slightly better record than Jokic and slightly better stats than Curry but at that point you're nearing nitpicking to create an argument for your preferred candidate.

Is Jokic not standing out in at least one major way?

Did you not read my previous post where I said I have Jokic as MVP at the moment?

[ty 4191]

no, thats a part of the game. What if the players come back and Denver still not winning the west? Plus most MVP winners are coming from top 3 records in the league, i cant imagine Jokic winning 2 MVPs because his team let him down.. if that was the case MJ would have won another 2 MVPs at least.

The voters will consider that their best two players, easily, (besides Jokic) missed an entire season.

And, we have to also consider that we're witnessing one of the greatest and most well-rounded players ever, and he's absolutely peaking right now.

In the past 131 games (including the 2021 Playoffs, dating back to the beginning of last season), Jokic has put up a slash line of:

26.4/12.0/7.9 (while leading all centers in steals by a huge margin):

--The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 26.4/12.0/7.9 this in any single season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured 127 possessions per game, playing 44 MPG.

--Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only 102 possessions per game, and while playing only 34 MPG. And, he's sustained it for more than a season and a half.

That is astounding.

For those who prefer advanced metrics (that we have for all eras of the NBA), here are a few objective things to consider:

1. His 31.4 PER across the last 131 games stacks up against the best (single) seasons of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Lebron James.

2. His BPM is 11.9, which stacks up against anything Michael Jordan ever did in a (single) season, and it falls just behind Lebron James' epic 2008-2009 campaign

3. His TS% of .634 would be fifth all time among all high volume 3 point shooters, such as himself. And again, that's compared to only an 82 game sample for the other players.

[ty 4191]

Did you not read my previous post where I said I have Jokic as MVP at the moment?

I did. I'm asking why you think he stands out in at least one major way.

[bebopdeluxe]

A truly MASSIVE disconnect between the oddsmakers in Vegas - whose job it is to set the lines in such a way to protect the house from losing money - and the RealGM GB poll.

Question - why are the oddsmakers so ridiculously wrong on this? If Embiid is truly a distant 3rd to Giannis and Jokic, what are the oddsmakers and the sharp money missing here?

Thanks!

[Dutchball97]

Did you not read my previous post where I said I have Jokic as MVP at the moment?

I did. I'm asking why you think he stands out in at least one major way.

He leads pretty much all advanced stats. Both per minute and in total value.

[cpower]

no, thats a part of the game. What if the players come back and Denver still not winning the west? Plus most MVP winners are coming from top 3 records in the league, i cant imagine Jokic winning 2 MVPs because his team let him down.. if that was the case MJ would have won another 2 MVPs at least.

The voters will consider that their best two players, easily, (besides Jokic) missed an entire season.

And, we have to also consider that we're witnessing one of the greatest and most well-rounded players ever, and he's absolutely peaking right now.

In the past 131 games (including the 2021 Playoffs, dating back to the beginning of last season), Jokic has put up a slash line of:

26.4/12.0/7.9 (while leading all centers in steals by a huge margin):

--The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 26.4/12.0/7.9 this in any single season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured 127 possessions per game, playing 44 MPG.

--Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only 102 possessions per game, and while playing only 34 MPG. And, he's sustained it for more than a season and a half.

That is astounding.

For those who prefer advanced metrics (that we have for all eras of the NBA), here are a few objective things to consider:

1. His 31.4 PER across the last 131 games stacks up against the best (single) seasons of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Lebron James.

2. His BPM is 11.9, which stacks up against anything Michael Jordan ever did in a (single) season, and it falls just behind Lebron James' epic 2008-2009 campaign

3. His TS% of .634 would be fifth all time among all high volume 3 point shooters, such as himself. And again, that's compared to only an 82 game sample for the other players.

no i get it , Jokic is the best player in the league. However, WS, BPM, PER these are all boxscores and we already know he is a monster in boxscore, not to mention PER is really flawed and out of date..i have no doubt Jokic will maintain this production for many years to come..but are we just going to give him MVP every year without looking at the team record? MVP definition has never been the biggest boxscore so i am sure its not going to be changed just for Jokic.

[ty 4191]

no i get it , Jokic is the best player in the league. However, WS, BPM, PER these are all boxscores and we already know he is a monster in boxscore, not to mention PER is really flawed and out of date..i have no doubt Jokic will maintain this production for many years to come..but are we just going to give him MVP every year without looking at the team record? MVP definition has never been the biggest boxscore so i am sure its not going to be changed just for Jokic.

1. What metrics are you using/do you use? Why? Which sites do you derive them from?

2. As far "just giving him the MVP every year", he's having one of the greatest seasons ever this year, and it's a special circumstance, also....name another player who had a season like this with BOTH the second and third best players on the team missing the entire season.

[bebopdeluxe]

Here is OddsShark:

Joel Embiid +200
Giannis Antetokounmpo +300
Nikola Jokic +375
Stephen Curry +500

Here is FanDuel:

Joel Embiid
+195
Nikola Jokic
+350
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+370
Stephen Curry
+650

All of the other sites are roughly the same. Embiid is the consensus #1 betting favorite for MVP....yet he is a DISTANT 3rd here at RealGM.

To be sure, part of where the lines are set are a function of the money being wagered, but - right now at least - the money is on Embiid, the oddsmakers (who are trying to protect the house) have Embiid, but RealGM sees this as a 2-horse race between Giannis and Jokic, with Embiid and Curry as long shots.

Can the people who are voting for either Jokic or Giannis explain to me what the people who 1) are WAGERING MONEY on who they think is going to win and 2) the linesmakers who job it is to PROTECT THE HOUSE'S MONEY are getting so ridiculously wrong here?

Thanks (again)!

[Doctor MJ]

A truly MASSIVE disconnect between the oddsmakers in Vegas - whose job it is to set the lines in such a way to protect the house from losing money - and the RealGM GB poll.

Question - why are the oddsmakers so ridiculously wrong on this? If Embiid is truly a distant 3rd to Giannis and Jokic, what are the oddsmakers and the sharp money missing here?

Thanks!

So first:

The House keeps from losing money by balancing both a) the most likely result of the bet with b) how popular each bet is.

Example: In the 2020 US Presidential election there was a lot of talk that the "smart money" in gambling was predicting Trump, but we know in retrospect what actually was happening was that there was simply a difference in the behavior of the Trump supporters and the Biden supporters. Way more money was bet on the Trump side than the Biden side, and the House(s) were moving the odds toward Trump to encourage more bets on the Biden side, but no matter what they did, more bets kept coming in for Trump.

It's speculated that this has to do with the strength of identity, and certainty, that is associated with the Trump movement.

I think you see something similar this year with the odds favoring the Brooklyn Nets. There you've got a chunk of basketball fans who believed that Nets simply had too much talent to lose, along with some people who seem to have an identity tied in with Kyrie beyond any notion of how impactful his game is. Hence, we may see those favoring the Nets are more likely to actually lay down cash to validate what they believe they know about the game of basketball.

On the other side of things:

I wouldn't assume that RealGM - or more specifically any sub-forum on RealGM - is in complete alignment with MVP voters. I expect Jokic does better on these boards than he does in MVP voters because MVP voters this year because MVP voters will likely care more about team record, because MVP voters are likely to be resistant to giving him a 2nd MVP before he leads an elite team, and because Jokic is the most alien player in the NBA and many in American basketball don't truly grasp how special he is.

My guess is that if either Milwaukee or Philadelphia can get the #1 seed, there's going to be a really good chance that Giannis or Embiid will be the MVP regardless of what Jokic or anyone else does the rest of the year.

[bebopdeluxe]

Money is smart. Money will vote for an alien if it believes it will win.

[Hobo4President]

Here is OddsShark:

Joel Embiid +200
Giannis Antetokounmpo +300
Nikola Jokic +375
Stephen Curry +500

Here is FanDuel:

Joel Embiid
+195
Nikola Jokic
+350
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+370
Stephen Curry
+650

All of the other sites are roughly the same. Embiid is the consensus #1 betting favorite for MVP....yet he is a DISTANT 3rd here at RealGM.

To be sure, part of where the lines are set are a function of the money being wagered, but - right now at least - the money is on Embiid, the oddsmakers (who are trying to protect the house) have Embiid, but RealGM sees this as a 2-horse race between Giannis and Jokic, with Embiid and Curry as long shots.

Can the people who are voting for either Jokic or Giannis explain to me what the people who 1) are WAGERING MONEY on who they think is going to win and 2) the linesmakers who job it is to PROTECT THE HOUSE'S MONEY are getting so ridiculously wrong here?

Thanks (again)!

People are voting for who they think should win MVP not who they think will win MVP.

[dygaction]

A truly MASSIVE disconnect between the oddsmakers in Vegas - whose job it is to set the lines in such a way to protect the house from losing money - and the RealGM GB poll.

Question - why are the oddsmakers so ridiculously wrong on this? If Embiid is truly a distant 3rd to Giannis and Jokic, what are the oddsmakers and the sharp money missing here?

Thanks!

RealGMs here vote on their own opinion who the MVP is.
Vegas bet on who the media will vote based on their agenda, taking considerations of market, voter fatigue, jokic coming from an MVP season and Giannis had b2b right before.
I vote Jokic MVP but would not bet money on him knowing what the media is doing.

[scrabbarista]

no, thats a part of the game. What if the players come back and Denver still not winning the west? Plus most MVP winners are coming from top 3 records in the league, i cant imagine Jokic winning 2 MVPs because his team let him down.. if that was the case MJ would have won another 2 MVPs at least.

The voters will consider that their best two players, easily, (besides Jokic) missed an entire season.

And, we have to also consider that we're witnessing one of the greatest and most well-rounded players ever, and he's absolutely peaking right now.

In the past 131 games (including the 2021 Playoffs, dating back to the beginning of last season), Jokic has put up a slash line of:

26.4/12.0/7.9 (while leading all centers in steals by a huge margin):

--The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 26.4/12.0/7.9 this in any single season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured 127 possessions per game, playing 44 MPG.

--Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only 102 possessions per game, and while playing only 34 MPG. And, he's sustained it for more than a season and a half.

That is astounding.

For those who prefer advanced metrics (that we have for all eras of the NBA), here are a few objective things to consider:

1. His 31.4 PER across the last 131 games stacks up against the best (single) seasons of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Lebron James.

2. His BPM is 11.9, which stacks up against anything Michael Jordan ever did in a (single) season, and it falls just behind Lebron James' epic 2008-2009 campaign

3. His TS% of .634 would be fifth all time among all high volume 3 point shooters, such as himself. And again, that's compared to only an 82 game sample for the other players.

I have him as MVP now, but it's slightly weird that you're posting his numbers from the last 131 games. Great to put him in historical context (which, to be fair, is something many people consider when thinking about MVP - but they shouldn't), but not strictly relevant to this season. His BPM this season is beating '09 LeBron James by a pretty big margin. He's on pace for the all-time record in a number of advanced stats, and his PTS/REBS/ASTS line this season has never been matched (Oscar included) in NBA history.

[BoatsNZones]

To me it looks like you go for Jokic if you strictly vote for the best/most valuable player or Curry if you want a top player on a top team.

Great post.

From what I excerpted from your post...

Here's my thinking: It should be an individual award for the most valuable player. Not an award for the player- amongst all contenders- with the best teammates.

Worth considering:

“Denver has been thrashed by injuries, but it still plays like a historically dominant team (plus-12.8 points per 100) as long as Jokic is on the court; when he’s not, the Nuggets play like the worst team in NBA history (minus-15.2 per 100)."

One thing to consider is that it is easier to rack up insane stats on bad teams than it is on stacked teams generally. It isn't always the case but it isn't uncommon for all-time greats to have some of their best statistical seasons in years where their team isn't that great because they're expected to do it all. Plus minus is also pretty significantly effected by the quality of the back ups and boy is Denver's bench unit bad this season.

Jokic' case is helped by Embiid and Giannis also starting off the season without a lot of help and while their records are slightly better, it isn't enough to overcome the statistical difference imo. If either of them were a dominant 1st seed or at least close 2nd the case for Jokic would already become more difficult. Honestly the Suns being such a great well rounded team without a clear superstar carrying them might just snatch the award from Curry as the Warriors far in first might've swayed enough voters. All in all we're simply dealing with a year without a clear frontrunner due to the best players not being on the best teams.

I see no argument why a player who is top 5 in VORP, 2nd in all of EPM, RAPTOR and LEBRON while being #1 in +/- for the #2 in the NBA (preseason projected at 47.5 wins) would not be the prototype for the “top player/top team” argument. Especially considering the missing players and the fact that he is the entire fulcrum of their offense along with the best D of his career.

I fully understand the narrative of the shooting slump, but he’s maintained an elite TS and impact throughout. But as I said prior, I do realize he will need to keep up his current shooting pace to secure a strong case.