dygaction wrote:bebopdeluxe wrote:A truly MASSIVE disconnect between the oddsmakers in Vegas - whose job it is to set the lines in such a way to protect the house from losing money - and the RealGM GB poll.
Question - why are the oddsmakers so ridiculously wrong on this? If Embiid is truly a distant 3rd to Giannis and Jokic, what are the oddsmakers and the sharp money missing here?
Thanks!
RealGMs here vote on their own opinion who the MVP is.
Vegas bet on who the media will vote based on their agenda, taking considerations of market, voter fatigue, jokic coming from an MVP season and Giannis had b2b right before.
I vote Jokic MVP but would not bet money on him knowing what the media is doing.
What "the media" is doing?
"American basketball fans don't grasp how truly special Jokic is"?
God - I am SO F'K'N tired of Jokic fanboys trying to find a bogeyman to blame for HOW PERSECUTED Jokic is.
It really is pathetic.
The current odds are a combination of 1) who Vegas thinks is the current leader; and 2) the money flow on the various players.
Period.
The bookmakers DON'T WANT TO LOSE MONEY. They don't give a rat's azz about how "American basketball fans" not "appreciating how special Jokic is. The line is the line because THAT IS WHAT THE BASKETBALL WORLD THINKS.
And ENOUGH of this crap about how Jokic is not appreciated. Last season Embiid and Jokic were basically 1 and 2 for the award. Embiid got hurt, Jokic took over the top spot and won the award.
YAY FOR JOKIC! in the minds of the basketball world, he was viewed as the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER.
Again - MOST VALUABLE PLAYER.
Not "which guy has the best stats". Not "which player has the greatest RAPTOR rating of all time".
Who is the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER?
To hear some people slag "the media" or "American basketball fans" who aren't spohisticated enough to RECOGNIZE TRUE GREATNESS misses the ENTIRE POINT of the award.
Most VALUABLE Player...to his team (which, by definition, did either really well or WAY better than people expected).
That has ALWAYS been the criteria for the award. Not which guy is resetting the bar for some statistical metric that the average basketball fan DNGAF about.
Joel Embiid is having, in his own way, an arguably great season. But the voters who have him at #1 right now arent just looking as the 40+point games, and all of the other things he is doing. They see a team that most observers thought (and many RealGM regulars hoped) would be a dumpster fire/soap opera because of the entire Simmons issue. The fans - and I would think the voters, if this holds - will look not only at Embiid's statistics, but how the team has played RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS. And - unfortunately for Jokic fans - the betting public (and the Vegas oddsmakers) value Embiid's impact in helping the Sixedrs overcome the Simmons issue over Jokic carrying his team through injuries. While I can appreciate a Jokic fan's viewpoint that the combination of Jokic's statistics and their relative success despite injuries should make him the MVP, I find it ridiculous that posters condescend to narratives like, "well, American basketball fans just aren't sophisticated enough (like we, the Jokic fanboys) to appreciate Jokic's greatness".
Right?
Oh, well. Sorry about that.
I close with the story of Kirk Gibson, who won the National League MVP in 1988. The Dodgers won the NL pennant that year, and - given that GIbson won the MVP, he must have had a MONSTEROUS statistical season - right? Here were his numbers:
.290 batting average, 25 HR, 76 RBI, .860 OPS
I assure you, those numbers were nowhere near the top of the league. But there was NO QUESTION that he was the heart and soul of that team. He came over from the Detroit TIgers - where he was a key guy on the team that won the 1984 World Series. He had knee issues, and wasn't the same player when he came to the Dodgers...but he brought an attitude that infected a clubjouse that had been close-but-no-cigar, and transformed that team.
Unfortunately, by the time they got to the World Series, his knees were so shot that he couldn't play. He only had one at bat in the 1988 World Series...and it was one of the most famous at-bats in baseball history (for those who don't know, Google "Kirk Gibson Dennis Eckersley").
Jokic may be the best player, but the fans and Vegas oddsmakers think that Embiid is the most VALUABLE player.
Stop being so condescending to them.