2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.2)

[Cubbies2120]

the sample size of shots to tie or win in last 10 seconds is too small a sample size to take seriously

is impressive that jokic shot as high in those situations but they are so rare that the percentages are noisy

Must just be pure luck, same with the blocks on the defensive end (after all, the other poster said "Jokic was fortunate" when HE was the one getting the block )

Most clutch player in the NBA by far right now when the game is on the line. Not opinion, statistics back it up.

jokic being clutch and shots to win or tie with 10 seconds being too ti ny a sample size are not excluyent

do you know how few games actually end in that situation?

A lot, actually...look at average margin of victory in NBA this year.

17 teams average margin of victory (or loss) this year is < 4 points.

[Madhouse]

EPM
1 Jokic
VORP
1 Jokic
BPM
1 Jokic
Raptor
1 Jokic
Lebron
1Jokic

[bebopdeluxe]

EPM
1 Jokic
VORP
1 Jokic
BPM
1 Jokic
Raptor
1 Jokic
Lebron
1Jokic

Leading scorer
1 Embiid
Leading "clutch" scorer
1 Embiid
Best odds in Vegas
1 Embiid

[BoatsNZones]

It is interesting that the narrative seems to be switching to Embiid being that they're the 5 seed in a conference where the 1 seed is on pace for 53 wins and he has missed >20% of the season. It's not as if he has a dominant statistical case over the other candidates or that he's coming off some dominant playoff run where he showed he was the best player in the game and we should feel like he deserves the award. The guy is about to turn 28 and hasn't even made a conference Finals yet.

I think he should absolutely be in the conversation, but I see zero argument why he should be the favorite. They only have 3 more wins than the Nuggets, and are 7 behind the Warriors (both teams who have been ravaged by injury).

[Doctor MJ]

It is interesting that the narrative seems to be switching to Embiid being that they're the 5 seed in a conference where the 1 seed is on pace for 53 wins and he has missed >20% of the season. It's not as if he has a dominant statistical case over the other candidates or that he's coming off some dominant playoff run where he showed he was the best player in the game and we should feel like he deserves the award. The guy is about to turn 28 and hasn't even made a conference Finals yet.

I think he should absolutely be in the conversation, but I see zero argument why he should be the favorite. They only have 3 more wins than the Nuggets, and are 7 behind the Warriors (both teams who have been ravaged by injury).

In the end, I think the candidacies of Giannis & Embiid are implicitly assuming that they end up leading their team up the standings from where they are. If one of them gets the #1 seed, even if they have a record that screams "This is not a #1 seed type of performance", he probably wins the MVP.

It gets more debatable if we're talking about a 2 or 3 seed. Below that, I think they'll miss out in favor of Jokic, Curry, or possibly even Paul.

Re: Embiid unproven. I don't think that's how people in general feel about him though I understand why you'd say they should.

[Cubbies2120]

EPM
1 Jokic
VORP
1 Jokic
BPM
1 Jokic
Raptor
1 Jokic
Lebron
1Jokic

Leading scorer
1 Embiid
Leading "clutch" scorer
1 Embiid
Best odds in Vegas
1 Embiid

What is your definition of clutch? Do you think it's more "clutch" in the last 5 minutes and a 5 point lead, or a 1 possession game with 2 or less minutes to go?

In all of NBA history we've looked at clutch players as the guys that deliver down the stretch, the stone cold killers who you want to give the ball to on the last possession. Since he entered the league, Jokic has been that dude.

https://www.sportscasting.com/nikola-jokic-is-twice-as-clutch-as-lebron-james-and-the-numbers-prove-it/

[bebopdeluxe]

EPM
1 Jokic
VORP
1 Jokic
BPM
1 Jokic
Raptor
1 Jokic
Lebron
1Jokic

Leading scorer
1 Embiid
Leading "clutch" scorer
1 Embiid
Best odds in Vegas
1 Embiid

What is your definition of clutch? Do you think it's more "clutch" in the last 5 minutes and a 5 point lead, or a 1 possession game with 2 or less minutes to go?

In all of NBA history we've looked at clutch players as the guys that deliver down the stretch, the stone cold killers who you want to give the ball to on the last possession. Since he entered the league, Jokic has been that dude.

https://www.sportscasting.com/nikola-jokic-is-twice-as-clutch-as-lebron-james-and-the-numbers-prove-it/

From NBA.com:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1

Embiid is averaging 5.2 points per "clutch" situation, a full point ahead of Jokic's 4.2 points. Ja is 3rd at 4.1 points.

Questions?

[Cubbies2120]

Leading scorer
1 Embiid
Leading "clutch" scorer
1 Embiid
Best odds in Vegas
1 Embiid

What is your definition of clutch? Do you think it's more "clutch" in the last 5 minutes and a 5 point lead, or a 1 possession game with 2 or less minutes to go?

In all of NBA history we've looked at clutch players as the guys that deliver down the stretch, the stone cold killers who you want to give the ball to on the last possession. Since he entered the league, Jokic has been that dude.

https://www.sportscasting.com/nikola-jokic-is-twice-as-clutch-as-lebron-james-and-the-numbers-prove-it/

From NBA.com:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1

Embiid is averaging 5.2 points per "clutch" situation, a full point ahead of Jokic's 4.2 points. Ja is 3rd at 4.1 points.

Questions?

Yeah, my question is to you:

What do YOU personally consider a higher pressure, clutch situation:

Your team is up by 5 points with 5 minutes left
or
Your team is down 2-3 points with less than 2 minutes left
or
Your team is down or tied with 10 seconds left in the game, it's the final possession

What, in your opinion, is a more important scenario to play well in? How would you rank those 3 scenarios above in terms of clutch factor?

Because Embiid plays well in scenarios with 5 minutes left, but once it gets down to that <2 minutes and still a 1 possession game, his play falls off a cliff. Maybe it's the pressure getting to him?

[bebopdeluxe]

What is your definition of clutch? Do you think it's more "clutch" in the last 5 minutes and a 5 point lead, or a 1 possession game with 2 or less minutes to go?

In all of NBA history we've looked at clutch players as the guys that deliver down the stretch, the stone cold killers who you want to give the ball to on the last possession. Since he entered the league, Jokic has been that dude.

https://www.sportscasting.com/nikola-jokic-is-twice-as-clutch-as-lebron-james-and-the-numbers-prove-it/

From NBA.com:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1

Embiid is averaging 5.2 points per "clutch" situation, a full point ahead of Jokic's 4.2 points. Ja is 3rd at 4.1 points.

Questions?

Yeah, my question is to you:

What do YOU personally consider a higher pressure, clutch situation:

Your team is up by 5 points with 5 minutes left
or
Your team is down 2-3 points with less than 2 minutes left
or
Your team is down or tied with 10 seconds left in the game, it's the final possession

What, in your opinion, is a more important scenario to play well in? How would you rank those 3 scenarios above in terms of clutch factor?

Because Embiid plays well in scenarios with 5 minutes left, but once it gets down to that <2 minutes and still a 1 possession game, his play falls off a cliff. Maybe it's the pressure getting to him?

What the hell is this word salad? Huh?

I say Embiid is the highest”clutch” scorer in the NBA. You ask, “where did that come from?” I put a hyperlink to THE NBA’S WEBSITE and their “clutch” statistics - which shows Embiid A FULL POINT (which, for a stat like this, is MASSIVE) ahead of Jokic. Your response?

A freaking word salad.

You do you, bro. Bye.

[Richard Miller]

Best odds in Vegas

Very basketball, wow

[Cubbies2120]

From NBA.com:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1

Embiid is averaging 5.2 points per "clutch" situation, a full point ahead of Jokic's 4.2 points. Ja is 3rd at 4.1 points.

Questions?

Yeah, my question is to you:

What do YOU personally consider a higher pressure, clutch situation:

Your team is up by 5 points with 5 minutes left
or
Your team is down 2-3 points with less than 2 minutes left
or
Your team is down or tied with 10 seconds left in the game, it's the final possession

What, in your opinion, is a more important scenario to play well in? How would you rank those 3 scenarios above in terms of clutch factor?

Because Embiid plays well in scenarios with 5 minutes left, but once it gets down to that <2 minutes and still a 1 possession game, his play falls off a cliff. Maybe it's the pressure getting to him?

What the hell is this word salad? Huh?

I say Embiid is the highest”clutch” scorer in the NBA. You ask, “where did that come from?” I put a hyperlink to THE NBA’S WEBSITE and their “clutch” statistics - which shows Embiid A FULL POINT (which, for a stat like this, is MASSIVE) ahead of Jokic. Your response?

A freaking word salad.

You do you, bro. Bye.

I'm sorry that you have trouble with reading a few paragraphs worth of words. What grade level English should I drop my "word salad" down to? Would a 3rd grade level be sufficient?

You wrote:
"Any questions?"

I responded with a question, which you avoided for some reason.

Next time, don't ask if there's any questions if you're gonna run from the convo

[bebopdeluxe]

Best odds in Vegas

Very basketball, wow

I am sorry - I thought this was a discussion about the NBA MVP race - who is doing well, and who is favored to win the award. Some people approach the discussion by citing statistics (like who has bee the best scorer in the clutch - which I would certainly think is appropriate in a discussion about which player is “most valuable”).

Others may want to discuss who, right now, is leading in the exciting “race” for the award! In this context, bringing up references of what NBA observers - such as Vegas bookmakers (who are FOLLOWING THE MONEY of how the public at large views the race) may be a good gauge of how the MVP race is shaping up right now.

You may be someone who believes that statistics such as RAPM or RAPTOR are important - and I am sure that is a factor.

I tend to look at Vegas to get a real-time gauge of “market sentiment”. It is like looking at a stock (from my background as a portfolio manager)…you can pour over a company’s financial statements, do ratio analysis, look at historical benchmarks, and base your decision on who has the “best” numbers.

If you have done that over the past 10 years, you have trailed the market badly. BADLY.

Me? I look at the charts. The technical patterns. Is volume (the amount of shares being traded) confirming price? Is the stock going higher on volume?

That is why Vegas works for me. It is the accumulation of all market information - including the takes from sharp bookmakers putting TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars on the line when they set odds.

And right now, Embiid is the favorite in Vegas.

Have fun with RAPTOR and EPM and whatever other stats you use. They do tell a story. But I will stick with the money, thanks.

[Richard Miller]

But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Well, if you want to stick to the things that have nothing to do with basketball I'm certainly not going to stop you. I'm sure Joel has more Twitter followers as well.

[bebopdeluxe]

But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Well, if you want to stick to the things that have nothing to do with basketball I'm certainly not going to stop you. I'm sure Joel has more Twitter followers as well.

Just so I am clear, you believe that Embiid is leading the NBA MVP race in Vegas because of his SOLID social media game?

(actually, if that WAS the criteria he would be running away with the award, but I digress)

Of course, Vegas has Embiid in the lead because 1) he is having a dominant season, and 2) his team is doing significantly better that people thought they would. And it not just the whole Simmons soap opera. The Sixers were hit hard by COVID - probably top-5 in man-games lost to COVID - but are still near the top of the East. They have also been one of the top 5 Road teams in the league as well - with Embiid leading the way.

But, now that you mention it…his social media game IS tight. Maybe that’s it!

[BoatsNZones]

Best odds in Vegas

Very basketball, wow

I am sorry - I thought this was a discussion about the NBA MVP race - who is doing well, and who is favored to win the award. Some people approach the discussion by citing statistics (like who has bee the best scorer in the clutch - which I would certainly think is appropriate in a discussion about which player is “most valuable”).

Others may want to discuss who, right now, is leading in the exciting “race” for the award! In this context, bringing up references of what NBA observers - such as Vegas bookmakers (who are FOLLOWING THE MONEY of how the public at large views the race) may be a good gauge of how the MVP race is shaping up right now.

You may be someone who believes that statistics such as RAPM or RAPTOR are important - and I am sure that is a factor.

I tend to look at Vegas to get a real-time gauge of “market sentiment”. It is like looking at a stock (from my background as a portfolio manager)…you can pour over a company’s financial statements, do ratio analysis, look at historical benchmarks, and base your decision on who has the “best” numbers.

If you have done that over the past 10 years, you have trailed the market badly. BADLY.

Me? I look at the charts. The technical patterns. Is volume (the amount of shares being traded) confirming price? Is the stock going higher on volume?

That is why Vegas works for me. It is the accumulation of all market information - including the takes from sharp bookmakers putting TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars on the line when they set odds.

And right now, Embiid is the favorite in Vegas.

Have fun with RAPTOR and EPM and whatever other stats you use. They do tell a story. But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Worth noting that he is the 4th different player to hold the distinction of NBA betting favorite this season, and likely won't be the last. It's a highly fluid market.

The best indicator of who is going to win will come out later this month when Tim Bontemps releases the results of the 2nd media straw poll (Curry won the first one ~90-10). Those are the opinions of the actual voters (nearly all of them). But even then, this race is so close that any of the top candidates could pull away with a post ASB surge.

Edit: Looks like their might be a second straw poll released this week, and the 3rd near the end of the season.

[BoatsNZones]

But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Well, if you want to stick to the things that have nothing to do with basketball I'm certainly not going to stop you. I'm sure Joel has more Twitter followers as well.

Just so I am clear, you believe that Embiid is leading the NBA MVP race in Vegas because of his SOLID social media game?

(actually, if that WAS the criteria he would be running away with the award, but I digress)

Of course, Vegas has Embiid in the lead because 1) he is having a dominant season, and 2) his team is doing significantly better that people thought they would. And it not just the whole Simmons soap opera. The Sixers were hit hard by COVID - probably top-5 in man-games lost to COVID - but are still near the top of the East. They have also been one of the top 5 Road teams in the league as well - with Embiid leading the way.

But, now that you mention it…his social media game IS tight. Maybe that’s it!

Just to add again, the Sixers are not performing significantly better than people thought they would. Their preseason win total over/under was 50.5 wins (that was with the expectation of no Ben for the season, and a mid-season trade if anything... so exactly what happened). They are on pace for 49 wins. The only candidate leading a team that is performing significantly above expectations is Curry. CP3/Booker would fit the bill as well, but I don't think they're considered serious candidates.

[rzzzzz]

Man, y’all are chewing on this like calculating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. This is sports, not calculus. It’s in the eye of the beholder, and largely emotional and trending. (If it was predominantly logical, than defensive considerations would be equal to offense. And style and showmanship would be trumped by efficiency.)

[CBS7]

Derozan is averaging 37.6 a game in the Bulls' last 7..

[HoopsterJones]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

[dygaction]

Partially due to voters fatigue but that’s how it works. Jokic, Giannis, and Curry are all past MVPs so he is the one to promote.

It is interesting that the narrative seems to be switching to Embiid being that they're the 5 seed in a conference where the 1 seed is on pace for 53 wins and he has missed >20% of the season. It's not as if he has a dominant statistical case over the other candidates or that he's coming off some dominant playoff run where he showed he was the best player in the game and we should feel like he deserves the award. The guy is about to turn 28 and hasn't even made a conference Finals yet.

I think he should absolutely be in the conversation, but I see zero argument why he should be the favorite. They only have 3 more wins than the Nuggets, and are 7 behind the Warriors (both teams who have been ravaged by injury).