2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[sp6r=underrated]

Alert, Alert: Bill Walton is calling UCLA-USC.

[Statlanta]

Something feels really off with the Warriors and it's not just Draymond's injury.

[GSP]

Vegas must have Kd as by far the best player in the league. Brooklyn still favorites not only to get out of East but win it all is absolutely INSANE

Theyre the 8 seed
have a brutal schedule
Kyrie part time
no chemistry or integration of Ben, Seth, Drummond.....
Kd weeks away from returning

i mean WTF just insanity.........

[Fadeaway_J]

Vegas must have Kd as by far the best player in the league. Brooklyn still favorites not only to get out of East but win it all is absolutely INSANE

Theyre the 8 seed
have a brutal schedule
Kyrie part time
no chemistry or integration of Ben, Seth, Drummond.....
Kd weeks away from returning

i mean WTF just insanity.........

Maybe they also overrate Simmons?

That is pretty wild.

[Doctor MJ]

Vegas must have Kd as by far the best player in the league. Brooklyn still favorites not only to get out of East but win it all is absolutely INSANE

Theyre the 8 seed
have a brutal schedule
Kyrie part time
no chemistry or integration of Ben, Seth, Drummond.....
Kd weeks away from returning

i mean WTF just insanity.........

By "Vegas", you mean "the fraction of basketball fans who felt confident enough to wager their own money on this", ya?

Yup, I think it says a lot about the psychology of the average NBA bettor among those groups. How they think about the game. How they think about certainty. How their identity has become tied in with on-court success proving them right.

[sp6r=underrated]

Vegas must have Kd as by far the best player in the league. Brooklyn still favorites not only to get out of East but win it all is absolutely INSANE

Theyre the 8 seed
have a brutal schedule
Kyrie part time
no chemistry or integration of Ben, Seth, Drummond.....
Kd weeks away from returning

i mean WTF just insanity.........

By "Vegas", you mean "the fraction of basketball fans who felt confident enough to wager their own money on this", ya?

Yup, I think it says a lot about the psychology of the average NBA bettor among those groups. How they think about the game. How they think about certainty. How their identity has become tied in with on-court success proving them right.

I actually think it is kind of interesting how out of whack that line is in comparison to game lines. In the post below I outline why betting on sports is basically guaranteed way to lose money. Short summary: Lines are super efficient. Why are the favorite lines off?

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is you can't bet against the Nets making the finals. If you could, I assume bettors would quickly take action on the anti-nets bet and the line would become highly efficient like almost other lines are.

BTW, disgusted watching the SB and seeing so many athletes pitch crypto/gambling. You think at a certain point you'd have enough money


1. Lines are highly efficient for all major sports leagues: EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Major College sports. Every line contains the bets of tens of thousands of bettors. Their bets signify the knowledge they bring to the table. When you bet, you're saying tens of thousands of people have mispriced the line but you know the real value. Does that seem likely to you? Of course not.
2. Accordingly you will lose money if you bet with any regularity on these sports.
3. The only way to make money with any consistency is to have the patience to only bet on maybe 1 NBA game out of 50, were the line has some substantial error.
4. Online gambling sportsbooks are designed to make #3 impossible to achieve for most bettors.
5. The spread of smartphone gambling has increased percentage of sports bettors, and percentage of sports bettors that are problem gamblers.
6. Sports leagues are fine with this since it increases ratings.
7. Sportsbooks love it because problem gamblers are were most of the profits are.
8. Widespread, legal gambling reduces economic productivity and increases social problems.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

[Doctor MJ]

Vegas must have Kd as by far the best player in the league. Brooklyn still favorites not only to get out of East but win it all is absolutely INSANE

Theyre the 8 seed
have a brutal schedule
Kyrie part time
no chemistry or integration of Ben, Seth, Drummond.....
Kd weeks away from returning

i mean WTF just insanity.........

By "Vegas", you mean "the fraction of basketball fans who felt confident enough to wager their own money on this", ya?

Yup, I think it says a lot about the psychology of the average NBA bettor among those groups. How they think about the game. How they think about certainty. How their identity has become tied in with on-court success proving them right.

I actually think it is kind of interesting how out of whack that line is in comparison to game lines. In the post below I outline why betting on sports is basically guaranteed way to lose money. Short summary: Lines are super efficient. Why are the favorite lines off?

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is you can't bet against the Nets making the finals. If you could, I assume bettors would quickly take action on the anti-nets bet and the line would become highly efficient like almost other lines are.

BTW, disgusted watching the SB and seeing so many athletes pitch crypto/gambling. You think at a certain point you'd have enough money


1. Lines are highly efficient for all major sports leagues: EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Major College sports. Every line contains the bets of tens of thousands of bettors. Their bets signify the knowledge they bring to the table. When you bet, you're saying tens of thousands of people have mispriced the line but you know the real value. Does that seem likely to you? Of course not.
2. Accordingly you will lose money if you bet with any regularity on these sports.
3. The only way to make money with any consistency is to have the patience to only bet on maybe 1 NBA game out of 50, were the line has some substantial error.
4. Online gambling sportsbooks are designed to make #3 impossible to achieve for most bettors.
5. The spread of smartphone gambling has increased percentage of sports bettors, and percentage of sports bettors that are problem gamblers.
6. Sports leagues are fine with this since it increases ratings.
7. Sportsbooks love it because problem gamblers are were most of the profits are.
8. Widespread, legal gambling reduces economic productivity and increases social problems.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

I'm not someone who is into gambling and have similar feelings to you about advertising for that, as well as for crypto, but yeah, that also means I'm not expert on the topic.

What I can say is that the phenomenon of the Trump-Biden betting lines getting skewed badly is a real thing, and that this resulted in casinos making a ton of money...but being very nervous before that happened. The nervous part wasn't just before the election either as people kept putting money on Trump after it was clear the Electoral College was going for Biden. People believed what Trump was saying that the election was rigged and that it would soon get overturned and bet money on their "inside knowledge".

In general, I think the possibility for something like this happening comes from a big event that draws the attention of casual bettors who have a strong emotional bias in play. Whereas if we're looking at a random game without any particular hype attached to it, we'd expect a greater proportion of people who are betting because they regularly bet, rather than because they "know how this one particular bet is going to turn out".

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm not someone who is into gambling and have similar feelings to you about advertising for that, as well as for crypto, but yeah, that also means I'm not expert on the topic.

What I can say is that the phenomenon of the Trump-Biden betting lines getting skewed badly is a real thing, and that this resulted in casinos making a ton of money...but being very nervous before that happened. The nervous part wasn't just before the election either as people kept putting money on Trump after it was clear the Electoral College was going for Biden. People believed what Trump was saying that the election was rigged and that it would soon get overturned and bet money on their "inside knowledge".

In general, I think the possibility for something like this happening comes from a big event that draws the attention of casual bettors who have a strong emotional bias in play. Whereas if we're looking at a random game without any particular hype attached to it, we'd expect a greater proportion of people who are betting because they regularly bet, rather than because they "know how this one particular bet is going to turn out".

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

All good points and to add, if you really have the analytical chops to reliably identify games outcomes you should consider giving up on sports and just becoming a fundamental, long-term stock investor*. Unlike sports it isn't a zero sum activity.

* I only own low-cost, index funds as I don't have that aptitude and never monitor the market.

[HeartBreakKid]

I'm not someone who is into gambling and have similar feelings to you about advertising for that, as well as for crypto, but yeah, that also means I'm not expert on the topic.

What I can say is that the phenomenon of the Trump-Biden betting lines getting skewed badly is a real thing, and that this resulted in casinos making a ton of money...but being very nervous before that happened. The nervous part wasn't just before the election either as people kept putting money on Trump after it was clear the Electoral College was going for Biden. People believed what Trump was saying that the election was rigged and that it would soon get overturned and bet money on their "inside knowledge".

In general, I think the possibility for something like this happening comes from a big event that draws the attention of casual bettors who have a strong emotional bias in play. Whereas if we're looking at a random game without any particular hype attached to it, we'd expect a greater proportion of people who are betting because they regularly bet, rather than because they "know how this one particular bet is going to turn out".

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

All good points and to add, if you really have the analytical chops to reliably identify games outcomes you should consider giving up on sports and just becoming a fundamental, long-term stock investor*. Unlike sports it isn't a zero sum activity.

* I only own low-cost, index funds as I don't have that aptitude and never monitor the market.

I mean you could say that for any job. "you should quit it, and learn something more dry and make more money".

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm not someone who is into gambling and have similar feelings to you about advertising for that, as well as for crypto, but yeah, that also means I'm not expert on the topic.

What I can say is that the phenomenon of the Trump-Biden betting lines getting skewed badly is a real thing, and that this resulted in casinos making a ton of money...but being very nervous before that happened. The nervous part wasn't just before the election either as people kept putting money on Trump after it was clear the Electoral College was going for Biden. People believed what Trump was saying that the election was rigged and that it would soon get overturned and bet money on their "inside knowledge".

In general, I think the possibility for something like this happening comes from a big event that draws the attention of casual bettors who have a strong emotional bias in play. Whereas if we're looking at a random game without any particular hype attached to it, we'd expect a greater proportion of people who are betting because they regularly bet, rather than because they "know how this one particular bet is going to turn out".

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

All good points and to add, if you really have the analytical chops to reliably identify games outcomes you should consider giving up on sports and just becoming a fundamental, long-term stock investor*. Unlike sports it isn't a zero sum activity.

* I only own low-cost, index funds as I don't have that aptitude and never monitor the market.

I mean you could say that for any job. "you should quit it, and learn something more dry and make more money".

There is a big difference, and I suspect you may disagree, but people work most jobs for a variety of reasons including but not limited to money. People who seriously gamble, I'm ignoring the casual gambler who buys into the office or church bingo, think they only do it for one reason: make money

[parsnips33]

What potential playoff matchup are people most excited for? Hard not to say Nets vs Philly at this point. I would love to see a Heat vs Bucks rematch. Warriors vs Grizz would be fun, I don't think either team cares for the other much

[falcolombardi]

sixers vs nets is THE matchup we NEED to see if only for the narratives that will come out of it

bucks vs miami round 3 has some history too

bucks vs the new nets is interesting in its own right

hawks rematching the sixers would be hilarious tho if the series is close

in the west warriors vs suns and warriors vs Memphis are the most interesting imo

[Texas Chuck]

little Mavs and any team from the East obviously.....

[SeniorWalker]

By "Vegas", you mean "the fraction of basketball fans who felt confident enough to wager their own money on this", ya?

Yup, I think it says a lot about the psychology of the average NBA bettor among those groups. How they think about the game. How they think about certainty. How their identity has become tied in with on-court success proving them right.

I actually think it is kind of interesting how out of whack that line is in comparison to game lines. In the post below I outline why betting on sports is basically guaranteed way to lose money. Short summary: Lines are super efficient. Why are the favorite lines off?

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is you can't bet against the Nets making the finals. If you could, I assume bettors would quickly take action on the anti-nets bet and the line would become highly efficient like almost other lines are.

BTW, disgusted watching the SB and seeing so many athletes pitch crypto/gambling. You think at a certain point you'd have enough money


1. Lines are highly efficient for all major sports leagues: EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Major College sports. Every line contains the bets of tens of thousands of bettors. Their bets signify the knowledge they bring to the table. When you bet, you're saying tens of thousands of people have mispriced the line but you know the real value. Does that seem likely to you? Of course not.
2. Accordingly you will lose money if you bet with any regularity on these sports.
3. The only way to make money with any consistency is to have the patience to only bet on maybe 1 NBA game out of 50, were the line has some substantial error.
4. Online gambling sportsbooks are designed to make #3 impossible to achieve for most bettors.
5. The spread of smartphone gambling has increased percentage of sports bettors, and percentage of sports bettors that are problem gamblers.
6. Sports leagues are fine with this since it increases ratings.
7. Sportsbooks love it because problem gamblers are were most of the profits are.
8. Widespread, legal gambling reduces economic productivity and increases social problems.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

The stock market (Americas largest casino) works in an analogous way.

[parsnips33]

little Mavs and any team from the East obviously.....

Memphis is pretty far east right?

[sp6r=underrated]

I actually think it is kind of interesting how out of whack that line is in comparison to game lines. In the post below I outline why betting on sports is basically guaranteed way to lose money. Short summary: Lines are super efficient. Why are the favorite lines off?

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is you can't bet against the Nets making the finals. If you could, I assume bettors would quickly take action on the anti-nets bet and the line would become highly efficient like almost other lines are.

BTW, disgusted watching the SB and seeing so many athletes pitch crypto/gambling. You think at a certain point you'd have enough money


1. Lines are highly efficient for all major sports leagues: EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Major College sports. Every line contains the bets of tens of thousands of bettors. Their bets signify the knowledge they bring to the table. When you bet, you're saying tens of thousands of people have mispriced the line but you know the real value. Does that seem likely to you? Of course not.
2. Accordingly you will lose money if you bet with any regularity on these sports.
3. The only way to make money with any consistency is to have the patience to only bet on maybe 1 NBA game out of 50, were the line has some substantial error.
4. Online gambling sportsbooks are designed to make #3 impossible to achieve for most bettors.
5. The spread of smartphone gambling has increased percentage of sports bettors, and percentage of sports bettors that are problem gamblers.
6. Sports leagues are fine with this since it increases ratings.
7. Sportsbooks love it because problem gamblers are were most of the profits are.
8. Widespread, legal gambling reduces economic productivity and increases social problems.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

The stock market (Americas largest casino) works in an analogous way.

Difference is if you buy an index fund in the stock market and just hold it for a sustained period of time 10 yrs, you're basically guaranteed to make money

[Colbinii]

I actually think it is kind of interesting how out of whack that line is in comparison to game lines. In the post below I outline why betting on sports is basically guaranteed way to lose money. Short summary: Lines are super efficient. Why are the favorite lines off?

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is you can't bet against the Nets making the finals. If you could, I assume bettors would quickly take action on the anti-nets bet and the line would become highly efficient like almost other lines are.

BTW, disgusted watching the SB and seeing so many athletes pitch crypto/gambling. You think at a certain point you'd have enough money


1. Lines are highly efficient for all major sports leagues: EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Major College sports. Every line contains the bets of tens of thousands of bettors. Their bets signify the knowledge they bring to the table. When you bet, you're saying tens of thousands of people have mispriced the line but you know the real value. Does that seem likely to you? Of course not.
2. Accordingly you will lose money if you bet with any regularity on these sports.
3. The only way to make money with any consistency is to have the patience to only bet on maybe 1 NBA game out of 50, were the line has some substantial error.
4. Online gambling sportsbooks are designed to make #3 impossible to achieve for most bettors.
5. The spread of smartphone gambling has increased percentage of sports bettors, and percentage of sports bettors that are problem gamblers.
6. Sports leagues are fine with this since it increases ratings.
7. Sportsbooks love it because problem gamblers are were most of the profits are.
8. Widespread, legal gambling reduces economic productivity and increases social problems.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

The stock market (Americas largest casino) works in an analogous way.

No it doesn't.

If you buy OTM Options--sure.

If you buy S&P index funds? No.
If you write options and sell OTM Calls? No.

[Doctor MJ]

I actually think it is kind of interesting how out of whack that line is in comparison to game lines. In the post below I outline why betting on sports is basically guaranteed way to lose money. Short summary: Lines are super efficient. Why are the favorite lines off?

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is you can't bet against the Nets making the finals. If you could, I assume bettors would quickly take action on the anti-nets bet and the line would become highly efficient like almost other lines are.

BTW, disgusted watching the SB and seeing so many athletes pitch crypto/gambling. You think at a certain point you'd have enough money


1. Lines are highly efficient for all major sports leagues: EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Major College sports. Every line contains the bets of tens of thousands of bettors. Their bets signify the knowledge they bring to the table. When you bet, you're saying tens of thousands of people have mispriced the line but you know the real value. Does that seem likely to you? Of course not.
2. Accordingly you will lose money if you bet with any regularity on these sports.
3. The only way to make money with any consistency is to have the patience to only bet on maybe 1 NBA game out of 50, were the line has some substantial error.
4. Online gambling sportsbooks are designed to make #3 impossible to achieve for most bettors.
5. The spread of smartphone gambling has increased percentage of sports bettors, and percentage of sports bettors that are problem gamblers.
6. Sports leagues are fine with this since it increases ratings.
7. Sportsbooks love it because problem gamblers are were most of the profits are.
8. Widespread, legal gambling reduces economic productivity and increases social problems.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

So the takeaway would be I think - if you were someone into betting - is to try to ask yourself what non-rational forces are in play from the pool of bettor's, and if you can identify when that is strong, then bet in the other direction because those non-rational forces warp what the smartest play is from the casinos themselves. They can only be assured of profit if they are able to keep the bettors in balance, and so you can take advantage of their incentive structure when a passionate fan base knocks things out of balance.

The key, in other words, is to find a line where you're essentially working with the casino instead of against them.

The stock market (Americas largest casino) works in an analogous way.

So, I'm not going to say you're wrong, but that's not how I see it.

In a Market, if you're trying to make money as quickly as possible, you're always trying to figure out what other people will do not to do the opposite, but to do what they will do before they do it - ideally as close to win they will do it as possible so you can "flip" what you buy for a profit as quick as you can.

Something I should say though - and not wanting to be super-negative, but just to be clear:

I have an aversion to the Stock Market and other analogous markets too. I don't expect it to go away, and I understand that it's not pragmatic to avoid investing in them as an individual, but I don't think our society truly understands how problematic it is to allow the tail to wag the dog here.

[Dr Positivity]

I think NBA champion future odds would be more casuals betting than sharps, so they would be attracted to Nets namepower.

[The High Cyde]

Got nothing to add except to praise the Suns, my Clips played them beautifully yesterday, but it really belied how great they are when they turn it up. They’re going back to the Finals would be my bet, health permitting.

And Chris Paul is playing sensational given his age, really happy he turned the narrative around his career.