Early DPOY thread

Oscar9992 · Post #1 » by **Oscar9992** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:20 pm

Early 'Defensive Player Of the Year' thread

Who are the favourites to win it?

Who is gonna win it in your opinion?

Bologna Smasher · Post #2 » by **Bologna Smasher** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:23 pm

I think watching the way the Jazz played without Gobert makes it a wrap.

I'd like to see Jaren Jackson Jr. win it though.

Slim Charless · Post #3 » by **Slim Charless** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:24 pm

Ayton or Mikal Bridges.

jfs1000d · Post #4 » by **jfs1000d** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:28 pm

Marcus Smart deserves mention, and Rob Williams second team. Lonzo too if he was healthy. Check out Smart's stats when he is guarding players.

Truth is it is Gobert because rim protection > perimeter defense .

mpoo_sin · Post #5 » by **mpoo_sin** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:32 pm

Maxi Kleber, Lolz
He erased Adebayo yesterday. Wonder if it made the top10....going to check!

dirkforpres · Post #6 » by **dirkforpres** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:36 pm

Draymond or Giannis

KGtabake · Post #7 » by **KGtabake** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:48 pm

Green would have been the obvious pick before injury. Now no chance. He's already missed significant time and he will miss even more.
Gobert aside from the voter fatigue has also missed significant time for his standard.
It's going to be Giannis. He's leading the DPOY ladder.

kazyv · Post #8 » by **kazyv** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:54 pm

i really think we should expand circle of candidates, when there isn't a really obvious one. boston seem do be doing well on defense and smart is certainly important to them, so why not? he has the most minutes played of all the players mentioned too, at 1637

Curmudgeon · Post #9 » by **Curmudgeon** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:01 pm

Rob Williams won't get it, but right now he is the best defensive player in the league and there is really no close second. No one can protect the rim AND guard the perimeter as well as Williams.

Cubbies2120 · Post #10 » by **Cubbies2120** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:07 pm

Really hoping its Gobert, I've got some parlays that he's the biggest question mark on (Monty CoY, Mobley RoY, Herro 6moy, Embiid MVP) that rely on him.

Slim Charless · Post #11 » by **Slim Charless** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:33 pm

Curmudgeon wrote:Rob Williams won't get it, but right now he is the best defensive player in the league and there is really no close second. No one can protect the rim AND guard the perimeter as well as Williams.

Deandre Ayton is way better on the perimeter. Way better.

pipfan · Post #12 » by **pipfan** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:33 pm

Man, I wanted Chicago to draft RWill in 2018-and we took Chandler Hutchinson!!
The guy is awesome, and would look GREAT next to Vuc
Anyway, I would guess Giannis or Gobert

Curmudgeon · Post #13 » by **Curmudgeon** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:35 pm

Slim Charless wrote:
Curmudgeon wrote:Rob Williams won't get it, but right now he is the best defensive player in the league and there is really no close second. No one can protect the rim AND guard the perimeter as well as Williams.

Deandre Ayton is way better on the perimeter. Way better.

Not really, but even if he is, Ayton won't get it either.

Infinite Llamas · Post #14 » by **Infinite Llamas** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:36 pm

I’m usually hesitant to hype someone from my team for an award because it can often come off as homerish but Rob Williams has been a demon this year. His recovery to block shots and challenge players is really second to nobody right now.

Kurtz · Post #15 » by **Kurtz** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:44 pm

Green was the clear frontrunner before he got injured - if he can come back right after the ASB, and there is apparently some optimism that this could be the case, I think it might be still his to lose.

It takes a little while to build up a defensive reputation, so guys like Robert Williams and JJJ, while possibly deserving, aren't really going to factor into the final votes this year.

Curmudgeon · Post #16 » by **Curmudgeon** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:59 pm

Infinite Llamas wrote:I’m usually hesitant to hype someone from my team for an award because it can often come off as homerish but Rob Williams has been a demon this year. His recovery to block shots and challenge players is really second to nobody right now.

Rob Williams vs the Nets last year. He's had better games this year.

Watch on YouTube

Post #17 » by **bisme37** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:07 pm

Latest NBA.com Defensive Ladder has it...

1. Giannis
2. Mikal Bridges
3. Jaren Jackson

And the "next 5" in no particular order are...
Draymond
Gobert
Robert Williams
Dejounte Murray
and Allen/Mobley (I guess they are now person now haha)

https://www.nba.com/news/defensive-player-ladder-february-2022-edition

(Not sure where Smart is but whatevs)

ITYSL · Post #18 » by **ITYSL** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:10 pm

Good way to look at it is how past DPOYs have fared in production, defensive box score and impact stats. For example:

Draymond, 16-17: Blocks (11th), steals (2nd), DWS (2nd), DBPM (1st), D-RAPTOR (1st), D-RAPM (5th)
Gobert, 17-18: Blocks (4th), steals (176th), DWS (10th), DBPM (3rd), D-RAPTOR (2nd), D-RAPM (5th)
Gobert, 18-19: Blocks (2nd), steals (93rd), DWS (2nd), DBPM (5th), D-RAPTOR (3rd), D-RAPM (3rd)
Giannis, 19-20: Blocks (26th), steals (71st), DWS (1st), DBPM (1st), D-RAPTOR (10th), D-RAPM (1st)
Gobert, 20-21: Blocks (1st), steals (170th), DWS (1st), DBPM (4th), D-RAPTOR (1st), D-RAPM (1st)

Just from browsing that, it seems like D-RAPM and DBPM are most predictive, followed by D-RAPTOR and DWS. Here are the top 5 in each of those this season thus far.

DBPM: Jokic, Giannis, Thybulle, Williams, Horford
D-RAPM: George Hill, Jaylen Brown, Kenrich Williams, Derrick White, Ricky Rubio
DWS: Tatum, Paul, Jokic, Williams, Gobert
D-RAPTOR: Gobert, Jokic, Thybulle, Draymond, Gary Payton III

Jokic is top five in 3 categories; Williams, Thybulle and Gobert are top five in 2. D-RAPM looks noisy.

TravisScott55 · Post #19 » by **TravisScott55** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:10 pm

Jaren Jackson

Crives · Post #20 » by **Crives** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:32 pm

CoP wrote:Good way to look at it is how past DPOYs have fared in production, defensive box score and impact stats. For example:

Draymond, 16-17: Blocks (11th), steals (2nd), DWS (2nd), DBPM (1st), D-RAPTOR (1st), D-RAPM (5th)
Gobert, 17-18: Blocks (4th), steals (176th), DWS (10th), DBPM (3rd), D-RAPTOR (2nd), D-RAPM (5th)
Gobert, 18-19: Blocks (2nd), steals (93rd), DWS (2nd), DBPM (5th), D-RAPTOR (3rd), D-RAPM (3rd)
Giannis, 19-20: Blocks (26th), steals (71st), DWS (1st), DBPM (1st), D-RAPTOR (10th), D-RAPM (1st)
Gobert, 20-21: Blocks (1st), steals (170th), DWS (1st), DBPM (4th), D-RAPTOR (1st), D-RAPM (1st)

Just from browsing that, it seems like D-RAPM and DBPM are most predictive, followed by D-RAPTOR and DWS. Here are the top 5 in each of those this season thus far.

DBPM: Jokic, Giannis, Thybulle, Williams, Horford
D-RAPM: George Hill, Jaylen Brown, Kenrich Williams, Derrick White, Ricky Rubio
DWS: Tatum, Paul, Jokic, Williams, Gobert
D-RAPTOR: Gobert, Jokic, Thybulle, Draymond, Gary Payton III

Jokic is top five in 3 categories; Williams, Thybulle and Gobert are top five in 2. D-RAPM looks noisy.

Defensive individual stats are pretty terrible for ranking players defense. Defense is a team metric. I think you need to judge for DPOY based on combination of eye test and lineup/team defense rating data.