Official Celtics 2022 Off-Season Thread

[Andrew McCeltic]

Al is SO good on the defensive end.

That was like Where's Waldo.. but Jesus! Above Myles Turner and second to Gobert..

Like this they could keep him in the summer.. either on his full money so you have the expiring trade possibility, or declining his option and re-upping for the vet minimum.. you effectively pay him 15 million that way. He could obviously bail for more money, though

[Slax]

From Seth Partnow at the Athletic:


"Boston Celtics: According to Estimated Plus/Minus, each of the six players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart and the newly acquired Derrick White) is likely to be in some version of the Celtics’ closing lineup is 83rd percentile or above in terms of defensive impact this year. Boston is a nasty defensive team, with the ability to guard at the point of attack, match up well with big wings, play big, protect the rim and also run a switching scheme.

In the three games since White became available, Boston is 3-0 with a defensive rating of 95.6 against the teams currently ranked third, ninth and 15th in the league in Offensive Rating. The C’s probably don’t have quite enough offense, and especially outside shooting. Even before swapping White (career 37.2 on uncontested 3s) in for superior marksman Josh Richardson (38.5 percent career on uncontested 3s), the Celtics were seventh from bottom in weighted career average 3FG% on uncontested attempts, a stat I like to call “shooter quality.” It will be hard for them to make it through four playoff rounds, but they will be absolutely zero fun to play against and will go into any series a Tatum or Brown takeover from beating anyone."

I think I've mentioned this before, that while we don't have any one Gobert or KG or Ben Wallace type of dominant defender, it is as far as I'm aware unprecedented in league history to see the sort of depth we have in terms of defensive talent. That is a list of six guys who are statistically among the better defenders in the league. It doesn't include Theis, Grant, and Nesmith who are also (at least by my eye) good to very good defenders. We go nine deep with players who are hard to get defensive mismatches against. We were missing two out of our three-ish best defenders to injury last night and still shut down a playoff team with an MVP-level scorer. When have you ever seen that on any NBA team?

There's a synergetic energy to this. When a team has this many good, smart defenders, it makes everyone look better. For example, you look at a guy like Jaylen who doesn't face a lot of mismatches because of his size and athleticism, but in other years has struggled a lot with defensive positioning. But this year our help defense and communication is so good that it doesn't leave him exposed on the positioning issues and lets him showcase his strength as a man defender, and the end result is that he has hugely positive advanced defensive metrics. I think we saw similar stuff with previous Horford iterations as well, but not nearly to this extreme. It's such a pleasure to watch.

If this was ten years ago, this sort of defense plus a couple star scorers makes you a serious contender. Unfortunately three point shooting is soooo much more valuable now than it used to be, and it's one area where we are very weak, so... it is what it is. If Nesmith could become a reliable 3&D guy like Grant it would be a huge help.

[Andrew McCeltic]

From Seth Partnow at the Athletic:


"Boston Celtics: According to Estimated Plus/Minus, each of the six players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart and the newly acquired Derrick White) is likely to be in some version of the Celtics’ closing lineup is 83rd percentile or above in terms of defensive impact this year. Boston is a nasty defensive team, with the ability to guard at the point of attack, match up well with big wings, play big, protect the rim and also run a switching scheme.

In the three games since White became available, Boston is 3-0 with a defensive rating of 95.6 against the teams currently ranked third, ninth and 15th in the league in Offensive Rating. The C’s probably don’t have quite enough offense, and especially outside shooting. Even before swapping White (career 37.2 on uncontested 3s) in for superior marksman Josh Richardson (38.5 percent career on uncontested 3s), the Celtics were seventh from bottom in weighted career average 3FG% on uncontested attempts, a stat I like to call “shooter quality.” It will be hard for them to make it through four playoff rounds, but they will be absolutely zero fun to play against and will go into any series a Tatum or Brown takeover from beating anyone."

The plus with super-elite team defense is that your margin of error on offense increases. The radical optimistic bet is that Jaylen and Jayson's iso ability and growing playmaking are enough to carry you offensively.

"Big three" teams were a rarity until 2007-08.. right now they're waning.. Milwaukee doesn't *really* have one, Golden State doesn't even with Klay healthy.. Philly doesn't, Phoenix doesn't exactly, Chicago's "big" three aren't big enough, Memphis doesn't have one, Miami doesn't.. Brooklyn doesn't unless Simmons comes back elite, and they've got reliability issues anyway.

Two stars and a supporting cast could be enough for at least the next couple seasons. All the pseudo-big three teams are getting older, you can't count on Jrue and Harden, Steph and Lowry staying big factors all the way to age 36 like CP3..

Obviously the next rounds of player movement and development could change that.. but we're in a competitive position to be a team it changes for.

[Andrew McCeltic]

From Seth Partnow at the Athletic:


"Boston Celtics: According to Estimated Plus/Minus, each of the six players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart and the newly acquired Derrick White) is likely to be in some version of the Celtics’ closing lineup is 83rd percentile or above in terms of defensive impact this year. Boston is a nasty defensive team, with the ability to guard at the point of attack, match up well with big wings, play big, protect the rim and also run a switching scheme.

In the three games since White became available, Boston is 3-0 with a defensive rating of 95.6 against the teams currently ranked third, ninth and 15th in the league in Offensive Rating. The C’s probably don’t have quite enough offense, and especially outside shooting. Even before swapping White (career 37.2 on uncontested 3s) in for superior marksman Josh Richardson (38.5 percent career on uncontested 3s), the Celtics were seventh from bottom in weighted career average 3FG% on uncontested attempts, a stat I like to call “shooter quality.” It will be hard for them to make it through four playoff rounds, but they will be absolutely zero fun to play against and will go into any series a Tatum or Brown takeover from beating anyone."

I think I've mentioned this before, that while we don't have any one Gobert or KG or Ben Wallace type of dominant defender, it is as far as I'm aware unprecedented in league history to see the sort of depth we have in terms of defensive talent. That is a list of six guys who are statistically among the better defenders in the league. It doesn't include Theis, Grant, and Nesmith who are also (at least by my eye) good to very good defenders. We go nine deep with players who are hard to get defensive mismatches against. We were missing two out of our three-ish best defenders to injury last night and still shut down a playoff team with an MVP-level scorer. When have you ever seen that on any NBA team?

There's a synergetic energy to this. When a team has this many good, smart defenders, it makes everyone look better. For example, you look at a guy like Jaylen who doesn't face a lot of mismatches because of his size and athleticism, but in other years has struggled a lot with defensive positioning. But this year our help defense and communication is so good that it doesn't leave him exposed on the positioning issues and lets him showcase his strength as a man defender, and the end result is that he has hugely positive advanced defensive metrics. I think we saw similar stuff with previous Horford iterations as well, but not nearly to this extreme. It's such a pleasure to watch.

If this was ten years ago, this sort of defense plus a couple star scorers makes you a serious contender. Unfortunately three point shooting is soooo much more valuable now than it used to be, and it's one area where we are very weak, so... it is what it is. If Nesmith could become a reliable 3&D guy like Grant it would be a huge help.

Which one of us reacted to the White trade with "Golden State Warriors of defense"?

[Larry_Russell]

From Seth Partnow at the Athletic:


"Boston Celtics: According to Estimated Plus/Minus, each of the six players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart and the newly acquired Derrick White) is likely to be in some version of the Celtics’ closing lineup is 83rd percentile or above in terms of defensive impact this year. Boston is a nasty defensive team, with the ability to guard at the point of attack, match up well with big wings, play big, protect the rim and also run a switching scheme.

In the three games since White became available, Boston is 3-0 with a defensive rating of 95.6 against the teams currently ranked third, ninth and 15th in the league in Offensive Rating. The C’s probably don’t have quite enough offense, and especially outside shooting. Even before swapping White (career 37.2 on uncontested 3s) in for superior marksman Josh Richardson (38.5 percent career on uncontested 3s), the Celtics were seventh from bottom in weighted career average 3FG% on uncontested attempts, a stat I like to call “shooter quality.” It will be hard for them to make it through four playoff rounds, but they will be absolutely zero fun to play against and will go into any series a Tatum or Brown takeover from beating anyone."

I think I've mentioned this before, that while we don't have any one Gobert or KG or Ben Wallace type of dominant defender, it is as far as I'm aware unprecedented in league history to see the sort of depth we have in terms of defensive talent. That is a list of six guys who are statistically among the better defenders in the league. It doesn't include Theis, Grant, and Nesmith who are also (at least by my eye) good to very good defenders. We go nine deep with players who are hard to get defensive mismatches against. We were missing two out of our three-ish best defenders to injury last night and still shut down a playoff team with an MVP-level scorer. When have you ever seen that on any NBA team?

There's a synergetic energy to this. When a team has this many good, smart defenders, it makes everyone look better. For example, you look at a guy like Jaylen who doesn't face a lot of mismatches because of his size and athleticism, but in other years has struggled a lot with defensive positioning. But this year our help defense and communication is so good that it doesn't leave him exposed on the positioning issues and lets him showcase his strength as a man defender, and the end result is that he has hugely positive advanced defensive metrics. I think we saw similar stuff with previous Horford iterations as well, but not nearly to this extreme. It's such a pleasure to watch.

If this was ten years ago, this sort of defense plus a couple star scorers makes you a serious contender. Unfortunately three point shooting is soooo much more valuable now than it used to be, and it's one area where we are very weak, so... it is what it is. If Nesmith could become a reliable 3&D guy like Grant it would be a huge help.

Which one of us reacted to the White trade with "Golden State Warriors of defense"?

That was me

Golden State re-invented NBA with the way offense was played. Broke the league with its offense.

Well, Celtics just became the Warriors, but with Defense....if that makes sense.

[Slax]

Al is SO good on the defensive end.

That was like Where's Waldo.. but Jesus! Above Myles Turner and second to Gobert..

Like this they could keep him in the summer.. either on his full money so you have the expiring trade possibility, or declining his option and re-upping for the vet minimum.. you effectively pay him 15 million that way. He could obviously bail for more money, though

I can't speak for Horford, but it would probably take at least a three-year taxpayer MLE or two-year non-taxpayer MLE to get me even listening to leave Boston. If I were sitting on a couple hundred mil in career earnings and already making $16.5M in guaranteed money plus $20M a year just in stock dividends or whatever other return on investments plus more in endorsements and jersey sales living in a city with fans who adore me and teammates I am friends with and a possible chance at a deep playoff run, and some other team offers me a two-year taxpayer MLE for $13M and Boston offers me a two-year vet min for $5M, I would care a lot more about my legacy and where I want to live and who my teammates are and trying to make a good playoff run as a key contributor and stuff than the extra $8M I earn over two years.

On the other hand, some guys see salary as a measure of respect and might not be willing to take a cut to stay in a good situation, no matter how small. Al doesn't give the impression of being one of those guys, but who really knows.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Theis didn't look washed last night, either.. he stepped in without missing a beat..

Watch on YouTube

The five fouls weren't great (how many were against Embiid?) but he had 4 blocks so he was being aggressive..

Brad/Zarren/Feaster are looking like geniuses this afternoon.. got under the tax, managed cap, improved our flexibility, added depth, probably backed the right horse with Nesmith over Romeo, found Hauser, correctly evaluated Theis, and made the right call upgrading our defense instead of downgrading it for more shooting and a higher risk player in Beasley. It cost two 1sts, a few 2nds, Romeo, a future pick swap, and a bunch of trade fodder they'd added for nothing in the summer.

Btw the most catastrophic pick trade in NBA history was probably Memphis trading their pick in 1997 for Otis Thorpe. Ended up the number 2 pick in the Lebron draft for Detroit.. Melo, Bosh, or Wade could've been a Grizzly..

But when they made the deal, Thorpe was *35 years old* and declining, they traded him halfway through the next season, and they were in the lottery for I think the next six years in a row.. Thorpe was 40 when they gave up the pick.. in 2028 White's 33.

[Andrew McCeltic]

That was me

Golden State re-invented NBA with the way offense was played. Broke the league with its offense.

Well, Celtics just became the Warriors, but with Defense....if that makes sense.

That was a good take. Better than some of your trade ideas

[Andrew McCeltic]

I can't speak for Horford, but it would probably take at least a three-year taxpayer MLE or two-year non-taxpayer MLE to get me even listening to leave Boston. If I were sitting on a couple hundred mil in career earnings and already making $16.5M in guaranteed money plus $20M a year just in stock dividends or whatever other return on investments plus more in endorsements and jersey sales living in a city with fans who adore me and teammates I am friends with and a possible chance at a deep playoff run, and some other team offers me a two-year taxpayer MLE for $13M and Boston offers me a two-year vet min for $5M, I would care a lot more about my legacy and where I want to live and who my teammates are and trying to make a good playoff run as a key contributor and stuff than the extra $8M I earn over two years.

On the other hand, some guys see salary as a measure of respect and might not be willing to take a cut to stay in a good situation, no matter how small. Al doesn't give the impression of being one of those guys, but who really knows.

I was surprised he left last time, though, and surprised at the money he got for his age - Dallas supposedly would've given him the same contract. You never know. Not sure the rules for declining the option and re-signing him - I know they can do it, but could they contract it all in one move without him becoming a free agent? Like announce on June 30th that they've agreed to restructure the deal?

[bisme37]

Since we got Derrick there's been a small army of Spurs fans stanning for us on the GB. Seems like we're the East team for San Antonians now.

[zoyathedestroya]

Since we got Derrick there's been a small army of Spurs fans stanning for us on the GB. Seems like we're the East team for San Antonians now.

...only to root against us and wish us the worst fate in 2027-28. Bunch of turncoats!

[sam_I_am]

I can't speak for Horford, but it would probably take at least a three-year taxpayer MLE or two-year non-taxpayer MLE to get me even listening to leave Boston. If I were sitting on a couple hundred mil in career earnings and already making $16.5M in guaranteed money plus $20M a year just in stock dividends or whatever other return on investments plus more in endorsements and jersey sales living in a city with fans who adore me and teammates I am friends with and a possible chance at a deep playoff run, and some other team offers me a two-year taxpayer MLE for $13M and Boston offers me a two-year vet min for $5M, I would care a lot more about my legacy and where I want to live and who my teammates are and trying to make a good playoff run as a key contributor and stuff than the extra $8M I earn over two years.

On the other hand, some guys see salary as a measure of respect and might not be willing to take a cut to stay in a good situation, no matter how small. Al doesn't give the impression of being one of those guys, but who really knows.

I was surprised he left last time, though, and surprised at the money he got for his age - Dallas supposedly would've given him the same contract. You never know. Not sure the rules for declining the option and re-signing him - I know they can do it, but could they contract it all in one move without him becoming a free agent? Like announce on June 30th that they've agreed to restructure the deal?

It’s impossible to waive Al and resign him. Impossible….because his 27 million next year will be fully guaranteed.

[Slax]

I can't speak for Horford, but it would probably take at least a three-year taxpayer MLE or two-year non-taxpayer MLE to get me even listening to leave Boston. If I were sitting on a couple hundred mil in career earnings and already making $16.5M in guaranteed money plus $20M a year just in stock dividends or whatever other return on investments plus more in endorsements and jersey sales living in a city with fans who adore me and teammates I am friends with and a possible chance at a deep playoff run, and some other team offers me a two-year taxpayer MLE for $13M and Boston offers me a two-year vet min for $5M, I would care a lot more about my legacy and where I want to live and who my teammates are and trying to make a good playoff run as a key contributor and stuff than the extra $8M I earn over two years.

On the other hand, some guys see salary as a measure of respect and might not be willing to take a cut to stay in a good situation, no matter how small. Al doesn't give the impression of being one of those guys, but who really knows.

I was surprised he left last time, though, and surprised at the money he got for his age - Dallas supposedly would've given him the same contract. You never know. Not sure the rules for declining the option and re-signing him - I know they can do it, but could they contract it all in one move without him becoming a free agent? Like announce on June 30th that they've agreed to restructure the deal?

It’s impossible to waive Al and resign him. Impossible….because his 27 million next year will be fully guaranteed.

That would be the best timeline

[Larry_Russell]

That was me

Golden State re-invented NBA with the way offense was played. Broke the league with its offense.

Well, Celtics just became the Warriors, but with Defense....if that makes sense.

That was a good take. Better than some of your trade ideas

pfft, depends on if you think other teams undervalue their own players or not.

[greenroom31]

For an update on Smart's ankle sprain, this is a pretty credible/accurate source: https://sicscore.com/nba/updates/marcus-smart-suffers-right-ankle-sprain-will-be-good-to-go-post-all-star-break

Based on initial video, Smart appears to suffer a right ankle inversion sprain – the most common basketball sprain – along with a contusion to his knee.

After visible discomfort and the immediate action of the Celtics ruling him out of the game right away, this injury should be a short-term absence for Smart according to our ProBasketballDocs. He will miss tomorrow night's game against the Pistons and return sometime soon after the all-star break, although likely not immediately.

Boston's first contest post all-star is against the new-look Nets on Feb. 24, followed by road bouts in Detroit and Indiana.

I would be VERY cautious about diagnosing the severity of injury's based off video. There will be an MRI, the extent of any tissue injury will determine how long he's out. Mild sprains can be 1-2 weeks, moderate ones more like 2-4.

Agreed but that link was from this guy (https://twitter.com/ProFootballDoc) who was a head team doctor in the NFL for 17 years. Diagnosing injuries based on video is his shtick for the last couple years and he has a very good track record. Read up on him if you don't believe me -- he's featured by a lot of mainstream groups like Fox, SiriusXM, etc. as an expert in this area.

[Slax]

I can't speak for Horford, but it would probably take at least a three-year taxpayer MLE or two-year non-taxpayer MLE to get me even listening to leave Boston. If I were sitting on a couple hundred mil in career earnings and already making $16.5M in guaranteed money plus $20M a year just in stock dividends or whatever other return on investments plus more in endorsements and jersey sales living in a city with fans who adore me and teammates I am friends with and a possible chance at a deep playoff run, and some other team offers me a two-year taxpayer MLE for $13M and Boston offers me a two-year vet min for $5M, I would care a lot more about my legacy and where I want to live and who my teammates are and trying to make a good playoff run as a key contributor and stuff than the extra $8M I earn over two years.

On the other hand, some guys see salary as a measure of respect and might not be willing to take a cut to stay in a good situation, no matter how small. Al doesn't give the impression of being one of those guys, but who really knows.

I was surprised he left last time, though, and surprised at the money he got for his age - Dallas supposedly would've given him the same contract. You never know. Not sure the rules for declining the option and re-signing him - I know they can do it, but could they contract it all in one move without him becoming a free agent? Like announce on June 30th that they've agreed to restructure the deal?

To be clear I'm not commenting on how much money Al will get offered, more that I suspect it would take a lot more than the taxpayer MLE to entice him away from a good situation where he's already earning a ton of money. If some aging playoff team in desperate need of a center is willing to offer a rapidly declining 36-year-old player a three-year $34M deal with the non-taxpayer MLE, I would expect him to take it. I don't think he has the pull for that sort of contract anymore, but... who knows, it depends on the market and how desperate other teams are. I'm guessing the tipping point of stay in Boston vs go somewhere else is somewhere in between that two-year taxpayer MLE I described earlier and a full three-year non-taxpayer MLE, but I have no clue where that tipping point is.

I don't know if it's possible to restructure the deal in one transaction instead of waive and re-sign, but at this point in Al's career I pretty much trust him not to pull a Boozer on us if he gives his word that he will re-sign at the vet min even if we can't. Plus re-signing at the vet min benefits us by saving us a million or so in team salary compared to what Al actually receives, so it would be beneficial to us if we could get that done.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Does Horford not have that pull when he's like, third in the league in D-LEBRON?

I'd be happy to keep him for the full money, too, if they're ready to go into the tax.. if he doesn't get you an upgrade your tax goes down the year after when he expires.. depends on owners.

[zoyathedestroya]

Read on Twitter

[keevsnick1]

For an update on Smart's ankle sprain, this is a pretty credible/accurate source: https://sicscore.com/nba/updates/marcus-smart-suffers-right-ankle-sprain-will-be-good-to-go-post-all-star-break

I would be VERY cautious about diagnosing the severity of injury's based off video. There will be an MRI, the extent of any tissue injury will determine how long he's out. Mild sprains can be 1-2 weeks, moderate ones more like 2-4.

Agreed but that link was from this guy (https://twitter.com/ProFootballDoc) who was a head team doctor in the NFL for 17 years. Diagnosing injuries based on video is his shtick for the last couple years and he has a very good track record. Read up on him if you don't believe me -- he's featured by a lot of mainstream groups like Fox, SiriusXM, etc. as an expert in this area.

Ya man, I get it. But you can be the best at a very imprecise science and still be imprecise. Ultimately the guys is making an educated guess, and why bother when you'll KNOW the answer is generally under 24-48 hours.

All that said the fact that Marcus is listed as "doubtful" and not "out" for today's game is probably a good sign.

[darrendaye]

Since we got Derrick there's been a small army of Spurs fans stanning for us on the GB. Seems like we're the East team for San Antonians now.

...only to root against us and wish us the worst fate in 2027-28. Bunch of turncoats!

Well, we played the long game, but Tim Duncan revenge is nearly (6 years) at hand! Hoo-hoo-ha-ha-ha.