The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

[nate33]

NatP4 is saying what I've been saying since our opening hot streak. Sell when guys are playing well, don't sell when players value is at its lowest. Kuzma is our ONLY player exceeding expectations (maybe Avdija and Gafford but Gafford's new contract takes him out of consideration) and should be moved now, while his value is high if we can get value for him. If everyone sees our glut at the 4 and lowballs us, then we keep him and try again in the offseason or next year.

Same goes for KCP who is what he is and is unlikely to improve. This isn't a contender, it won't be one next year. We should be in asset collection mode.

The question is, what is "value" for Kuzma? Would you trade him for a late 1st? A pick in the high teens? Two 2nds?

And the answer to the question depends on how good you think Kuzma is actually playing right now, and whether or not that good play is likely to continue. I don't think this is a Martell Webster situation. I really don't think he is just on a fluke hot streak. I say this because he is still pretty young and this is his first opportunity to play as a #2 option in a starting lineup.

If you ignore his first 8 games (when he was too shot happy trying to figure out his role here), he has averaged per 36:

18.5 points
9.6 rebounds
3.4 assists
0.8 steals
1.0 blocks
2.6 turnovers
.346 3P%
.568 TS%
in 40 starts playing 33 minutes a night.

Those are per36 career highs in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and TS%, and just off his career highs in points and 3P%. League average TS% is .559 so he's providing volume with positive efficiency.

But what's more encouraging is he seems to be getting better as the season progresses and he understands how to fit into the offense with this roster. Over the past 19 games, he has posted (per 36):

23.0 points
10.9 rebounds
2.9 assists
1.2 blocks
0.8 steals
3.0 turnovers
.590 TS%
.353 3P%

Those are fringe All-Star numbers. He actually played 34.7 minutes a game in that stretch.

What I like most is that he no longer seems to be jacking up shots like he did earlier in the season. I feel like most of his shots are now good shots. His shots early in the shot clock are catch-and-shoot 3's or attacking the rim with that floater. He is only forcing shots if he gets the ball late in the shot clock, and frankly, he's probably our best bail out shot creator at the moment. And it's notable that his improved efficiency is not due to streaky 3-point shooting. His 3P% is right at his career average. Just think if he improves his 3-ball a bit.

So what is a fair offer for Kuzma at the Trade Deadline?

[DCZards]

Right now, Kuz is playing extremely well and has been for over a month. And I like the fact that he appears to have become an oncourt vocal leader for the Zards.

Sure, trade him if you get an excellent offer. But I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a quality young player or a top 20 first round pick…and even then it might turn out to be a mistake.

The obvious improvements in Kuzma’s play (which Nate laid out very well) look genuine and potentially long-term. His #s over the past 20 game or so don’t lie…and he’s only 26, on a good contract at this point and may improve even more.

A number of NBAers have evolved into better, more complete, more confident players when given a new opportunity and role. We might just be seeing that with Kuz.

[WallToWall]

Confirms the eye test also. This is why I hesitate to throw Kuzma into a trade. He is just now realizing what he can become, and I do think he can sustain it. That makes him quite useful as a #2 scorer on this and any team.

[penbeast0]

I would trade him for a late 1st or multiple decent seconds. I am not convinced he's more than a good backup, weak starter type. I also want to be able to play our other bigs.

[FAH1223]

Smiley for Kuz. Looks like Jerry West, the NBA LOGO

[Ruzious]

I'm definitely not against trading Kuz after the season, but I do think there's some value in his leadership for this team. I probably wouldn't settle for just a late 1st - as I'd expect that we'd probably waste it. He had a great January, but he has fallen off some in February, and his defensive numbers have never looked good. Avdija is our only other forward that currently sticks out on the positive side right now.

[DCZards]

I'm definitely not against trading Kuz after the season, but I do think there's some value in his leadership for this team. I probably wouldn't settle for just a late 1st - as I'd expect that we'd probably waste it. He had a great January, but he has fallen off some in February, and his defensive numbers have never looked good. Avdija is our only other forward that currently sticks out on the positive side right now.

Yeah...Kuz has cooled off the last couple of weeks. A lot of that has to do with the absence Beal. BB both draws the attention that defenses are now devoting to Kuz and is really the only Zard capable of creating good looks for Kuz and the other Zards.

Sucks that we don't have a true PG.

[FAH1223]

Watch on YouTube

[Eli Babak]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FL2TuFXWUBIWoM4?format=jpg&name=large

Also 3.4 turnovers per game. Team record 9-13. Kuzma is fool's gold. On a good team he'd be playing a very limited role but he is and will be treated like a star in DC. Can't wait to see Tommy saying no to a 1st round pick and then giving him 20M/year contract extension.

Sorry about negativity. Maybe with a good PG and better coaching I'd like Kuzma more. Right now he is doing too much at times and while it's not entirely his fault (Beal/Porzingis out, no one else really ready/wanting to take role) he could still be smarter with his decision making.

[DCZards]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FL2TuFXWUBIWoM4?format=jpg&name=large

Also 3.4 turnovers per game. Team record 9-13. Kuzma is fool's gold. On a good team he'd be playing a very limited role but he is and will be treated like a star in DC. Can't wait to see Tommy saying no to a 1st round pick and then giving him 20M/year contract extension.

Sorry about negativity. Maybe with a good PG and better coaching I'd like Kuzma more. Right now he is doing too much at times and while it's not entirely his fault (Beal/Porzingis out, no one else really ready/wanting to take role) he could still be smarter with his decision making.

Kuz played maybe his worst game of the season last night against the Nets. His decision making and turnovers were horrific. But, as you point out, Kuz is being asked to take on roles and responsibilities that lead to some of these problems.

On the other hand, Kuz's all-around play has been very good for most of this season. He can be an outstanding fourth (even third option) on a good team, imo. If I'm trading Kuzma for a draft pick, I wouldn't take anything short of a top 20 pick.

[nate33]

I'm fine with Kuzma. He's a good presence in the locker room, and he has the ability to get up shots in volume at a not-awful percentage. That allows the other players to pick and choose smart shots to keep up their percentages and continue to learn to play the right way.

I'm aware that he will probably end up posting "good stats on a bad team" type numbers, and that's fair. But as long as Kuzma continues to share the ball (and he is doing so, albeit with excessive turnovers), he'll be good for the development of everyone else - at least during this tank stretch.

Whether or not it makes sense to keep Kuzma long term is an open question. Ultimately, he will have to become more efficient and take better care of the ball, but maybe that happens as other guys develop and/or we acquire a primary scorer to handle the scoring load.

[ozthegap]

I'm fine with Kuzma. He's a good presence in the locker room, and he has the ability to get up shots in volume at a not-awful percentage. That allows the other players to pick and choose smart shots to keep up their percentages and continue to learn to play the right way.

I'm aware that he will probably end up posting "good stats on a bad team" type numbers, and that's fair. But as long as Kuzma continues to share the ball (and he is doing so, albeit with excessive turnovers), he'll be good for the development of everyone else - at least during this tank stretch.

Whether or not it makes sense to keep Kuzma long term is an open question. Ultimately, he will have to become more efficient and take better care of the ball, but maybe that happens as other guys develop and/or we acquire a primary scorer to handle the scoring load.

He seems like a pretty ambitious kid. I think he will continue to get better. Let’s wait and see

[pcbothwel]

Kuz has grown on me and Im certainly more selective in any trade, but the real issue is you have to pay either him or Rui. Kuz is an expiring next year and we need to trade him or Rui and recoup some value.

[smoothSeph]

Is he worth 25 mil?

[payitforward]

To me, the only really interesting question about Kuzma is, has he improved? Is he better than last year? The answer is... a little. But, not much.

His TS% is unchanged, but his usage is up just a bit from last year, so credit him with a little improvement as a scorer -- not much but at least worth a mention.

If we look at blocks, steals, turnovers, assists & fouls, again we see a slight, quite slight, improvement this season.

The biggest positive difference is in defensive rebounding -- his defensive boards are way up. Unfortunately, his offensive rebounds are way down. Still, in rebounding too there's an overall improvement to note.

Yet, this is Kuzma's 5th season. He's already played over 10,000 minutes. If somebody liked him enough to make an attractive offer -- i.e. one that included picks -- I'd trade him in a minute.

The other side of the ledger might be his role in the locker room. Maybe that is positive enough to induce us to keep him...? I suppose it would depend on how much we have to pay him, who else is on the roster, etc. But, he's not a player you'd rely on to make you into a terrific team, one that competes for a title.

[payitforward]

Is he worth 25 mil?

A year? No. Not anywhere close. I wouldn't say his production is a bargain at his current salary.

Is he as good as Jae Crowder? No. Maxi Kleber? No. To take a couple of quick random examples of guys who make a good bit less than he does now. Jarred Vanderbilt?

In fact... you've convinced me: trade him for younger player(s)/pick(s).

[DCZards]

To me, the only really interesting question about Kuzma is, has he improved? Is he better than last year? The answer is... a little. But, not much.

His TS% is unchanged, but his usage is up just a bit from last year, so credit him with a little improvement as a scorer -- not much but at least worth a mention.

If we look at blocks, steals, turnovers, assists & fouls, again we see a slight, quite slight, improvement this season.

The biggest positive difference is in defensive rebounding -- his defensive boards are way up. Unfortunately, his offensive rebounds are way down. Still, in rebounding too there's an overall improvement to note.

Yet, this is Kuzma's 5th season. He's already played over 10,000 minutes. If somebody liked him enough to make an attractive offer -- i.e. one that included picks -- I'd trade him in a minute.

The other side of the ledger might be his role in the locker room. Maybe that is positive enough to induce us to keep him...? I suppose it would depend on how much we have to pay him, who else is on the roster, etc. But, he's not a player you'd rely on to make you into a terrific team, one that competes for a title.

Everything you say above is on target. But I do want to point out that terrific teams aren’t just made up of outstanding players. Most have 2-3 stars and a handful of role players.

Kuzma played 25 mins. per game on a LAL team that won the 2019-20 championship. So he’s already proven that he can not only contribute to competing for a title but that he can actually contribute to winning a title.

[smoothSeph]

Is he worth 25 mil?

A year? No. Not anywhere close. I wouldn't say his production is a bargain at his current salary.

Is he as good as Jae Crowder? No. Maxi Kleber? No. To take a couple of quick random examples of guys who make a good bit less than he does now. Jarred Vanderbilt?

In fact... you've convinced me: trade him for younger player(s)/pick(s).

John Collins just received a 5 yr/125 mil extension, which is where I got the number from. I do think Kuzma will continue to improve but if that's the market I have to agree we should be looking to move on.

[FAH1223]

To me, the only really interesting question about Kuzma is, has he improved? Is he better than last year? The answer is... a little. But, not much.

His TS% is unchanged, but his usage is up just a bit from last year, so credit him with a little improvement as a scorer -- not much but at least worth a mention.

If we look at blocks, steals, turnovers, assists & fouls, again we see a slight, quite slight, improvement this season.

The biggest positive difference is in defensive rebounding -- his defensive boards are way up. Unfortunately, his offensive rebounds are way down. Still, in rebounding too there's an overall improvement to note.

Yet, this is Kuzma's 5th season. He's already played over 10,000 minutes. If somebody liked him enough to make an attractive offer -- i.e. one that included picks -- I'd trade him in a minute.

The other side of the ledger might be his role in the locker room. Maybe that is positive enough to induce us to keep him...? I suppose it would depend on how much we have to pay him, who else is on the roster, etc. But, he's not a player you'd rely on to make you into a terrific team, one that competes for a title.

The local media i.e. NBC Sports Washington and Wizards podcasters are overrating Kuzma.

I was listening to Bullets Forever’s 3 point play and I appreciate Kevin Broom consistently tempering the Kuz love. He’s basically slightly better than average this season.

He’s never going to be an All Star level player.

[payitforward]

Is he worth 25 mil?

A year? No. Not anywhere close. I wouldn't say his production is a bargain at his current salary.

Is he as good as Jae Crowder? No. Maxi Kleber? No. To take a couple of quick random examples of guys who make a good bit less than he does now. Jarred Vanderbilt?

In fact... you've convinced me: trade him for younger player(s)/pick(s).

John Collins just received a 5 yr/125 mil extension, which is where I got the number from. I do think Kuzma will continue to improve but if that's the market I have to agree we should be looking to move on.

I don't see any relationship between those two guys.

1. Collins is a much much better player than Kuzma.
2. Collins is more than two years younger than Kuzma.