DeMar DeRozan or LeBron James - Who's the better player this season?

[TroubleS0me]

Many people feel DeMar should be in the top 5 in the MVP
LBJ is having a solid season himself but the Lakers are struggling

[falcolombardi]

lebron imo, people dont realize thst his scoring and offense is not just "bonkers for his age" but absolutely bonkers in general

although this is the first time in derozan career that he belongs in a conversación like this and he deserves a huge amount of credit for being one the league best players this season

[No-more-rings]

Demar is a good player. Lebron is still one of the best in the league when healthy. Doesn’t seem like a good comparison to me.

[RCM88x]

It's just hard for me to toss out the entirety of DeRozan career and not feel like this season is a complete outlier. I still have a hard time believing that all things considered DeRozan is even a top 25 player in the league. LeBron is still top 10 at worst even with all the time he's missed.

[zimpy27]

Yeah I'd be surprised if an objective voter goes for DeMar.

DeMar is having a top season though and Bulls have great chemistry.

[SelfishPlayer]

I love it. All of the people that wrote him off as a worthless relic due to not shooting threes well have to hide.

[TheLand13]

Maybe this season is an outlier. Maybe it's a fluke. Maybe Demar hasn't been anywhere close to this in previous seasons (which he hasn't).

But it's only about THIS season. And in that regard, I can't justify not picking Demar.

[falcolombardi]

lebron James: 29/8/6.5 on .615 ts%, 1.2 steals/blocks
12% tov%

Demar derozan: 28/5/5 on .600 ts% 2.6 steals/blocks
9% tov%

fairly close boxscore wise, lebron is a bit more efficient. gets a bit more assists and blocks/steals but derozan gains back in turnovers

is definitely close this year but derozan health could give him the nod since he has played more games, otherwise i think lebron has still been better

[LukaTheGOAT]

I don't have an issue with people who believe Demar has been better this year, because I suppose you could argue Demar has followed in the path of guys like Nash, Kobe, arguably Lebron himself, Bird, etc. as guys who peaked offensively in their 30s.

That being said, if the question is asking who on a per-possession basis, has been more impactful, I would go Lebron.

Their basic scoring numbers:

Lebron
Inflation Adjusted-28.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 6%)

Demar
Inflation Adjusted-28.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 4.1%)

So even with Demar's recent historic scoring streak, they are scoring at the same rate, however Lebron is doing it on better efficiency. Therefore you could argue that Derozan's current scoring numbers might overstate his true scoring prowess a bit. Furthermore, Lebron keeping up this rate doing while playing more minutes per game (mostly because his team needs him out there), though Derozan has missed less games; so depending on how you treat injuries there is that to consider.


Then Looking at the basic metrics

LBJ

Backpicks BPM-5.8
LEBRON-3.65
RAPTOR-5.8
EPM-6.9

Derozan

Backpicks BPM-4.2
LEBRON-1.95
RAPTOR-3.1
EPM-4.3

Lebron comes out looking more impactful on a per-possession basis than Demar in the major metrics I have listed. One thing that probably should be noted is that for all the backlash Lebron may/may not deserve to get on defense, he comes out looking considerably better than Derozan generally in the metrics.

Now with Lebron's missed games, it is notable to point out that perhaps Derozan has had to take on a heavier load and he should be credited for that. However, if you look at the cumulative impact numbers:

LBJ

EPM Estimated Wins-10.1
LEBRON Wins Added-5.8
RAPTOR WAR-6.6

Derozan

EPM Estimated Wins-9.7
LEBRON Wins Added-5.5
RAPTOR WAR-5.8

Lebron generally stills come out with a lead over Derozan. We know Lebron is a better playmaker than Derozan, and it does look like he has scored better this year just looking at the bare numbers. Statistically, he looks like a better defender than Derozan, and I would say with his occasional rim-protection and orchestrating of teammates of where they should be on defense, it makes sense he would be ahead. Derozan's case would have to lie in the belief he has some gravity that might be hard to detect, although I would like to see evidence that NBA teams give Derozan attention in an especially unique way that Bron is not given. There might be other qualitative arguments that Derozan is doing things for his team on the offensive end, that Lebron is not doing, but I am having trouble at the moment seeing what it could be that would give him the edge here. Perhaps Derozan's ability to operate out of the midrange gives him some qualitative edges, I am not considering?

Part of the intrigue of midrange shooting is that it is ideally resilient against tougher teams as it is seemingly always available. However, as this chart shows, there isn't really enough evidence that Lebron is really great against top defenses himself this year (chart is as of Feb 16. 2022).

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[McBubbles]

I love it. All of the people that wrote him off as a worthless relic due to not shooting threes well have to hide.

Wait til the postseason, as per usual with DeMar. Then we'll see what he's really made of.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I love it. All of the people that wrote him off as a worthless relic due to not shooting threes well have to hide.

Wait til the postseason, as per usual with DeMar. Then we'll see what he's really made of.

Per the older version of PS AuPM/G that goes back to the 96-97 season, No player on record has declined more in their career from the RS to PS than DeMar DeRozan, who dropped over a point per game in value to become a negative in the postseason.

The next closest player is a -0.7, so there is some substantial gap between him and the next biggest decliner in career PS play.

[HeartBreakKid]

If Lebron wasn't measured against his past seasons and was just another player, this season would be seen as a massive success. His stats are still really good.

[Jaivl]

I love it. All of the people that wrote him off as a worthless relic due to not shooting threes well have to hide.

Not like it was **only** for not shooting threes.