OT: Russia-Ukraine War

[Pointgod]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

This makes as much sense as the US nuking Mexico or Canada. Nuclear fallout doesn’t respect borders.

[gavran]

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the long-term plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again. Potential Orthodox brotherhood obligations could break NATO agreements.

There is a bigger chance Hungary invades Romania, than Russia invading either.

Which country do you reside in? I forgot. Is it Hungary? I took a summer program in Rome after my first year in law school. We stayed in this pensione just down the main street from the Spanish Steps. Anyhow, there was this one young woman who was with her mom visiting Rome from Hungary. She was a stone cold fox. We started hanging out a bit when the mom and the man who ran the pensione put a stop to it. Fckers.

Yes.

[HarthorneWingo]

I don't have a strong grasp of the relative power of the two nations. Is this a clearly "winnable" war for Russia or could it be a quagmire for them? Will Ukraine simply cede or go the distance? Those questions certainly play into the calculus...

I don’t think there’s such thing as a winnable war. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc should be cautionary tales. Ukraine’s military is better equipped and funded than Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban. Not to mention you have civilians that will fight against Russia and the support form NATO. Russia might achieve their goals but not without heavy casualties. And at this point the best NATO can do without sending troops is to make it economically painful and bloody for Russia as possible.

From an admittedly short brief into this issue, it seems Putin is likely to fall on his own sword if we play it right.

Can't NATO can arm them with more tanks and drones, etc.

[duetta]

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I work for an investment bank that relocated much of its back-office operations to Poland over a decade ago. There is no way that Putin will be able to restore the former Soviet Union. But he may indeed attempt to do so - before recognizing that he has taken on more than he can chew.

And if Putin wants to know why so many of the former Soviet satellites joined NATO, this invasion is why.

The United States and NATO had zero designs on Russia - I mean, Russia is a nuclear power - but Putin clearly retains designs on those states that once were part of the Soviet sphere of influence.

[HarthorneWingo]

There is a bigger chance Hungary invades Romania, than Russia invading either.

Which country do you reside in? I forgot. Is it Hungary? I took a summer program in Rome after my first year in law school. We stayed in this pensione just down the main street from the Spanish Steps. Anyhow, there was this one young woman who was with her mom visiting Rome from Hungary. She was a stone cold fox. We started hanging out a bit when the mom and the man who ran the pensione put a stop to it. Fckers.

Yes.

Are you young enough to be drafted into the Hungarian army if it does decide to invade Romania?

[HarthorneWingo]

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I work for an investment bank that relocated much of its back-office operations to Poland over a decade ago. There is no way that Putin will be able to restore the former Soviet Union. But he may indeed attempt to do so - before recognizing that he has taken on more than he can chew.

And if Putin wants to know why so many of the former Soviet satellites joined NATO, this invasion is why.

The United States and NATO had zero designs on Russia - I mean, Russia is a nuclear power - but Putin clearly retains designs on those states that once were part of the Soviet sphere of influence.

Any business meetings planned for Krakow in the near future?

[Clyde_Style]

I don't have a strong grasp of the relative power of the two nations. Is this a clearly "winnable" war for Russia or could it be a quagmire for them? Will Ukraine simply cede or go the distance? Those questions certainly play into the calculus...

I don’t think there’s such thing as a winnable war. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc should be cautionary tales. Ukraine’s military is better equipped and funded than Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban. Not to mention you have civilians that will fight against Russia and the support form NATO. Russia might achieve their goals but not without heavy casualties. And at this point the best NATO can do without sending troops is to make it economically painful and bloody for Russia as possible.

From an admittedly short brief into this issue, it seems Putin is likely to fall on his own sword if we play it right.

The wild card is Putin’s mental disposition. He has crossed a historical divide from which there is no turning back. That means he now has more to lose by not being volatile and more vicious.

Because he has no fall back position now you can rest assured he has plenty of traps set to be sprung should he take a fall. Some of that will involve using komprommat and not just going out in a blaze of glory by firing nukes.

This is the problem now beyond the fate of the Ukraine. Putin is no longer just the evil schemer, but now a weaponized madman on a tightrope.

[gavran]

Which country do you reside in? I forgot. Is it Hungary? I took a summer program in Rome after my first year in law school. We stayed in this pensione just down the main street from the Spanish Steps. Anyhow, there was this one young woman who was with her mom visiting Rome from Hungary. She was a stone cold fox. We started hanging out a bit when the mom and the man who ran the pensione put a stop to it. Fckers.

Yes.

Are you young enough to be drafted into the Hungarian army if it does decide to invade Romania?

To be frank, Romania invaded Hungary in 1919, and they are here ever since. Hungary would just liberate our own land, and would never set foot on Romania proper, so calling it invasion was a mistake from my part. Plus, as we have self diving spaceships with wormhole bombs, we don't need an army. The one we have is just for the show.

[semjazy]

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again.

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I think Poland is too close to the west. Making progress towards the Balkans might be beneficial because (1) The west will more likely let it slide over Poland. (2) There's a sizeable orthodox & Serbian population in the Balkans which could arise and join Russia.

You think the Baltic nations will join NATO while Russia is busy in Ukraine or nah?

Don't get me wrong. I expect Russia to take advantage of the situation in the Balkans to create more unrest. Serbia is Russia's natural ally and the situation in Bosnia could slip out of control If Republika Srpska in Bosnia announces secession, I think they will support them. But for Russia, it's just the icing on the cake.

By Baltic states I mean Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They are already in NATO. They want to create a buffer that would allow for greater control in the event of war. Baltic states are natural target because: (1) historically these lands belonged to them, (2) they are very close to Saint Petersburg, (3) they have a sizable Russian minority, (4) it's easy to takeover them, because they would need only to attack Suwalki Gap in Lithuania and connect Kaliningrad Oblast with Belarus. By doing so, the Baltic states will be cut off completely from aid

Poland and Moldova are next because they could create the shortest line of defense on the Vistula River, the Carpathians and the the Danube estuary in Moldova. If they do, they are set and invasion on Russia would be almost imposible.

That's the issue for NATO. What do we do if Russia takes all of Ukraine and pulls right up to Poland, etc.?

Putin logic is almost backwards. He says he wants to keep NATO from encroaching on Russia's borders but by annexing Ukraine, Russian has encroached in NATO countries, which we can construe as "an act of military aggression" on us.

This is why the situation in Ukraine is so significant. War is never predictable. And if it spills over into neighboring countries, WW3 may begin

[Pointgod]

I don't have a strong grasp of the relative power of the two nations. Is this a clearly "winnable" war for Russia or could it be a quagmire for them? Will Ukraine simply cede or go the distance? Those questions certainly play into the calculus...

I don’t think there’s such thing as a winnable war. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc should be cautionary tales. Ukraine’s military is better equipped and funded than Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban. Not to mention you have civilians that will fight against Russia and the support form NATO. Russia might achieve their goals but not without heavy casualties. And at this point the best NATO can do without sending troops is to make it economically painful and bloody for Russia as possible.

From an admittedly short brief into this issue, it seems Putin is likely to fall on his own sword if we play it right.

Take this for what it’s worth because it’s reports from Western media, but it sounds like Putin has been isolated since COVID and is not listening to most of his inner circle/advisors. The rambling speech before invading were indications that this could be the actions of a desperate, disillusioned mad man. And to be honest that’s what you’d have to be to invade a sovereign nation. Russia is ruled by Oligarchs and Biden has done the right thing sanctioning those Oligarchs and their families. It’s wrong to assume that everyone in Russia supports this invasion. How much money, pain and the lost of Russian lives will need to happen before the influential people that weren’t in favor of this look to oust Putin. It’s going to be a long haul but maybe if the economic cost is too high some sanity might prevail.

[mpharris36]

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[gavran]

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I work for an investment bank that relocated much of its back-office operations to Poland over a decade ago. There is no way that Putin will be able to restore the former Soviet Union. But he may indeed attempt to do so - before recognizing that he has taken on more than he can chew.

And if Putin wants to know why so many of the former Soviet satellites joined NATO, this invasion is why.

The United States and NATO had zero designs on Russia - I mean, Russia is a nuclear power - but Putin clearly retains designs on those states that once were part of the Soviet sphere of influence.

Any business meetings planned for Krakow in the near future?

I have in St. Petersbug. Well, not anymore.

[duetta]

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I work for an investment bank that relocated much of its back-office operations to Poland over a decade ago. There is no way that Putin will be able to restore the former Soviet Union. But he may indeed attempt to do so - before recognizing that he has taken on more than he can chew.

And if Putin wants to know why so many of the former Soviet satellites joined NATO, this invasion is why.

The United States and NATO had zero designs on Russia - I mean, Russia is a nuclear power - but Putin clearly retains designs on those states that once were part of the Soviet sphere of influence.

Any business meetings planned for Krakow in the near future?

Our offices are in Warsaw and Wroclaw; personally, I'm refusing to even go on the subway if I have a choice, so there's no way I'm heading to Eastern Europe any time soon!

[Stannis]

Don't get me wrong. I expect Russia to take advantage of the situation in the Balkans to create more unrest. Serbia is Russia's natural ally and the situation in Bosnia could slip out of control If Republika Srpska in Bosnia announces secession, I think they will support them. But for Russia, it's just the icing on the cake.

By Baltic states I mean Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They are already in NATO. They want to create a buffer that would allow for greater control in the event of war. Baltic states are natural target because: (1) historically these lands belonged to them, (2) they are very close to Saint Petersburg, (3) they have a sizable Russian minority, (4) it's easy to takeover them, because they would need only to attack Suwalki Gap in Lithuania and connect Kaliningrad Oblast with Belarus. By doing so, the Baltic states will be cut off completely from aid

Poland and Moldova are next because they could create the shortest line of defense on the Vistula River, the Carpathians and the the Danube estuary in Moldova. If they do, they are set and invasion on Russia would be almost imposible.

Whoops. Meant to say the Scandinavian countries. Finland and Sweden. Do you think they join?

[semjazy]

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I work for an investment bank that relocated much of its back-office operations to Poland over a decade ago. There is no way that Putin will be able to restore the former Soviet Union. But he may indeed attempt to do so - before recognizing that he has taken on more than he can chew.

And if Putin wants to know why so many of the former Soviet satellites joined NATO, this invasion is why.

The United States and NATO had zero designs on Russia - I mean, Russia is a nuclear power - but Putin clearly retains designs on those states that once were part of the Soviet sphere of influence.

All experts that I read said that the Russian army has forces capable of occupying the right side of Ukraine plus a detour around Kiev. They will not be able to afford more now. But it's unknown what the future will bring. He has definitely chosen to subordinate this part of Europe as his goal

Honestly, looking at what they did today, I doubt they will be able to take control of Ukraine before the sanctions come into force, smashing their country from the inside out. But we have to wait until we see what they would do tomorrow and whether there are front lines that Ukraine can defend

[semjazy]

Whoops. Meant to say the Scandinavian countries. Finland and Sweden. Do you think they join?

Yes, for sure

[Clyde_Style]

Natasha Romanov, report to Kiev immediately

[robillionaire]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

why would you nuke something that’s about to be your own territory by the end of the week?

[semjazy]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

why would you nuke something that’s about to be your own territory by the end of the week?

They don't have to use nukes. They took control of Chernobyl. They may threaten that if they do not give up, there will be an "accident" and nuclear waste will flow to Kyiv

[Capn'O]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

why would you nuke something that’s about to be your own territory by the end of the week?

They don't have to use nukes. They took control of Chernobyl. They may threaten that if they do not give up, there will be an "accident" and nuclear waste will flow to Kyiv

Or Moscow. If the wind shifts. That would be a wildly insane move.