Top 5 Contenders?

[Roger Murdock]

1. 76ers
2. Warriors
3. Bucks
4. Suns
5. Heat

This is the most level field I’ve ever seen

Can add 5 more teams easily. I don’t think anyone has >15 percent to win and think there’s about ten teams with at least a 5 percent chance

[Kobe187]

This is a bit intresting tbh. For me anyone in the top 11 league total can win it, maybe even 13 if u count in the 2 LA teams.

Suns
GSW
Heat
Bucks
Mavs

The parity this year is amazing any team in the playoffs that comes together and starts firing on all cylinders has a legitimate chance of winning it.

[The Real Dalic]

Bucks
Suns
Sixers
Nets
Heat

Those are my personal top 5 in no real order. I could see each one take out the other.

I do want to add that I do think the Warriors, Celtics, Grizzlies, Nuggets and an outside shot for the Mavs can win it all too. Bulls and Cavs could be in the mix with some great playoffs performances from their best players. But they'd need to get hot at the right time, imo.

I could see the Lakers making a serious run too if they can get and stay healthy.

But this is the most parity I think I've ever seen from this league. Same thing with last year. It makes for much more exciting playoff series. That's for sure.

[MarcusBrody]

This is a bit intresting tbh. For me anyone in the top 11 league total can win it, maybe even 13 if u count in the 2 LA teams.

Suns
GSW
Heat
Bucks
Mavs

The parity this year is amazing any team in the playoffs that comes together and starts firing on all cylinders has a legitimate chance of winning it.

The real wildcard in my mind is the Nuggets. No one knows if Murray/Porter Jr. will be back, and if they are, how they'll be playing. But if they come back at the level of "solid starter," the Nuggets could be tough as it pushed their rotation from being pretty terrible outside of Jokic, to actually really deep/solid with Aaron Gordon sliding to 4th option and Barton becoming a second unit spark plug rather than a top 3 option (even if they start him at SG with Murray at PG, I assume he'd stagger his minutes more).

If either comes back at anywhere close to their previous best (even Murray's non-bubble best), they're a legit top 5 contender in my mind.

[Statlanta]

Phoenix, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Utah, Golden State

[DonaldSanders]

I spy with my little eye.... a few Celtics homers.

Sweet, what's your argument against them?

Well for starters, they're #5 in the East while 5 teams in the West have better records. Pretty tough to make a case that is a #5 team. To me you should be looking for the top 3 records in each conference and then cut the weakest team. In this case I would very reluctantly cut the Grizzlies because the Bucks are the defending champs. I don't see how the Celtics are even in the conversation.

Miami
Philly
Bucks

Phoenix
GSW

We can play what-ifs with the Nets but they are what their record is for now, at least to me.

[bisme37]

I spy with my little eye.... a few Celtics homers.

Sweet, what's your argument against them?

Well for starters, they're #5 in the East while 5 teams in the West have better records. Pretty tough to make a case that is a #5 team. To me you should be looking for the top 3 records in each conference and then cut the weakest team. In this case I would very reluctantly cut the Grizzlies because the Bucks are the defending champs.

Miami
Philly
Bucks

Phoenix
GSW

We can play what-ifs with the Nets but they are what their record is for now, at least to me.

The playoffs aren't happening last fall though. They're happening this spring. Since the start of 2022 the Celtics have had the best net rating, defensive rating, and point differential in the league, are winning games at a high clip and have climbed 5 spots in the standings.

I don't really get dismissing a team's chances in the playoffs because they weren't good 4 months ago. It's not 4 months ago anymore.

[cupcakesnake]

Sweet, what's your argument against them?

Well for starters, they're #5 in the East while 5 teams in the West have better records. Pretty tough to make a case that is a #5 team. To me you should be looking for the top 3 records in each conference and then cut the weakest team. In this case I would very reluctantly cut the Grizzlies because the Bucks are the defending champs.

Miami
Philly
Bucks

Phoenix
GSW

We can play what-ifs with the Nets but they are what their record is for now, at least to me.

The playoffs aren't happening last fall though. They're happening this spring. Since the start of 2022 the Celtics have had the best net rating, defensive rating, and point differential in the league, are winning games at a high clip and have climbed 5 spots in the standings.

I don't really get dismissing a team's chances in the playoffs because they weren't good 4 months ago. It's not 4 months ago anymore.

we should just change the topic to "Which 5 teams have the best record right now" and go from there!

[Triple M]

Sixers - the only team with two MVP level players, but health has been an issue with both. I haven't seen a flaw yet, but if one exists, it hurts that they don't have a season to address it.

Milwaukee - Defending champions with an in prime multi-time MVP is hard to ignore. Historically I feel Giannis has the chance to join LBJ trajectory and might be a year earlier. Giannis' supporting class is elite too. Please give me the closing duo of Middleton and Holiday over nearly anybody

PHX - they don't really fit my formula of a contender, but I can't dispute what they've accomplished this year.

Those are my leading contenders the other two teams I have are dark horses

Dallas/Boston - both teams have shown they are capable at defence with an improving offense and probably the two hottest young stars right now. If the young stars maintain their play, could they be in the top 5 discussions??

Luka fits the description better and I sort of want to squeeze Morant in the conversation too.

Overall, I just don't want to cut off some of the younger guys if they stay hot and outplay their opposing star match up in the playoffs.

[bubonicphoniks]

Suns
Bucks
Celtics
Chicago
Cleveland





Nets lol

[ajones9219]

I spy with my little eye.... a few Celtics homers.

Sweet, what's your argument against them?

Well for starters, they're #5 in the East while 5 teams in the West have better records. Pretty tough to make a case that is a #5 team. To me you should be looking for the top 3 records in each conference and then cut the weakest team. In this case I would very reluctantly cut the Grizzlies because the Bucks are the defending champs. I don't see how the Celtics are even in the conversation.

Miami
Philly
Bucks

Phoenix
GSW

We can play what-ifs with the Nets but they are what their record is for now, at least to me.

I'm sorry but what a dumb take. The Celtics were dealing with injuries to start the season. Even then, their starting 5 was statistically the best starting 5 in the league. They also had a brand new head coach. Teams improve over the course of a year, especially when injuries are at play. In 2022 they have been the best team in the league. That's over 2 full months. You don't decide a contender in November. The difference between the Nets and Celtics is the Celts have been playing elite for half the season.

[Asian Celtic]

76ers
Nets
Suns
Grizzlies
Bucks

In no particular order.

[Curmudgeon]

1. 76ers
2. Warriors
3. Bucks
4. Suns
5. Heat

This is the most level field I’ve ever seen

Can add 5 more teams easily. I don’t think anyone has >15 percent to win and think there’s about ten teams with at least a 5 percent chance

Same teams, but I would put them in exactly the reverse order.

[Roger Murdock]

1. 76ers
2. Warriors
3. Bucks
4. Suns
5. Heat

This is the most level field I’ve ever seen

Can add 5 more teams easily. I don’t think anyone has >15 percent to win and think there’s about ten teams with at least a 5 percent chance

Same teams, but I would put them in exactly the reverse order.

Yeah totally. I mean depending on day/week anyone can move up/down or sideways. These playoffs could be wild. There are teams I could legit see losing R1 that I view as contenders.

Imagine if the Clippers or Nuggets get their guys back? Like all of a sudden they are new challengers. Just wild wild wild.

[Bodiroga13]

1. Nets
2. Bucks
3. Suns
4. Heat
5. Nuggets if MPJ and Murray come back in good condition. Otherwise, GSW

[Ito]

Lakers, warriors.. philly gon come out the East

[HoopsterJones]

1. Suns
2. Warriors
3. Sixers
4. Bucks
5. Heat

[DonaldSanders]

we should just change the topic to "Which 5 teams have the best record right now" and go from there!

Of the 75 NBA championships, only twice has the winning team been seeded higher than 3.
53 times for the 1st seed
12 times for the 2nd seed
8 times for the 3rd seed
1 time for the 4th seed
0 times for the 5th seed
1 time for the 6th seed

It's a more reasonable stat than you probably realized. The Celtics are currently the 5th seed. They are a hot team that could claw up to but home court advantage also is important in winning a chip. They could very well end up being the #2 seed but they don't have a cakewalk schedule for the rest of the season (neither do the Bucks though).

The only non top 3 seeded teams to win are teams that had recently won championships (Boston '69, Houston 94-95).

The issue here is, can you leave Miami off considering they have the best record in the East? Seems hard to me. I can't leave the defending champs the Bucks off. So it's a toss up between Philly/Boston as the 3rd best team in the East (I think Chicago has been too up and down & has a lower SRS). Personally I think James Harden + having a better record keeps Philly in front of Boston. Then there is a strong argument that Memphis should be on the list and only 2 East teams should be in a top 5.

I'm sorry but what a dumb take. The Celtics were dealing with injuries to start the season. Even then, their starting 5 was statistically the best starting 5 in the league. They also had a brand new head coach. Teams improve over the course of a year, especially when injuries are at play. In 2022 they have been the best team in the league. That's over 2 full months. You don't decide a contender in November. The difference between the Nets and Celtics is the Celts have been playing elite for half the season.

You don't decide who the best team is in any small snapshot of a season. The Warriors lost all momentum with Draymond Green out, while they were on fire when he was playing. Philly has had Simmons out the whole season and just finished a trade that vastly improved them. The Bucks have also dealt with injuries. The Celtics are currently the 5th seed in the East, there is a good chance they will become the 3rd seed, but even then they'd be facing some long odds at becoming champion.

I don't think many people would take a healthy Boston over a healthy Phoenix right now. The Suns are 24-5 and Boston is 22-8 in 2022. This is with Chris Paul being out 3 of those 5. While Boston may be hot, the Suns are still clearly the best team in the league even with CP3 having been out for many games. The Grizzlies for example aren't that far off Boston this year, going 21-8 in 2022.

[Isocleas2]

Contenders:
Suns
Bucks
Sixers
Heat

Contenders when healthy:
Nets
Warriors
Nuggets

Good team but not their year:
Memphis
Jazz
Mavs
Celtics

[Pachinko_]

Of the 75 NBA championships, only twice has the winning team been seeded higher than 3.

Yeah but how many pandemics did they have in 75 years, and how many times have teams lost their starters for so long to injuries, protocols and mandates? How many times have we seen the East topped by the Wizards, then the Cavs, then Chicago, then the Heat, and it will likely still change? All Stars like Simmons, Kyrie, Zion disappearing for all sorts of weird reasons and nobody knows when/if they're coming back, when have we seen that before? There's a "first time in NBA history" for something or other literally every day, and this feels a lot like an outlier year.

When you look at a team these days you need to be a bit of an analyst to hand pick a few games where you can legit say that those are true reflections because both teams had their playoff rotation on the floor, they were fairly rested, key pieces have played together a bit, and the coach was not forced to experiment with stuff. Other than that the regular season is one giant blob of weird stuff.