Top 5 Contenders?

[AussieBuck]

Suns
Bucks
Warriors
Sixers
Heat

[Pachinko_]

Suns
Sixers
Bucks
Nets
and dark horse (drumroll) Nuggets for me. I just can't discount the Joker man, I can't, not the way he's playing.

Shout out to the Heat, great team and they could easily prove me wrong, I just think they're gonna miss that designated 30PPG dude in the playoffs.

[Bobbymcgee]

#1 PHX Suns - hate to put them first but I think they are the clear cut favorites in the West. And, the East is going to be brutal so who ever comes out of the East is going to be worn down.

#2 MIL Bucks - I still think that the defending champs have a chance to repeat. Giannis was a beast last year and especially in the last game of the championship where he played like an all-time great. I think they are going to be hard to eliminate.

#3 PHI Sixers - I debated putting the Sixers in third place because Embiid, Harden and Doc Rivers all have a history of choking in the playoffs. But, maybe this year will be different. There is no denying they are now a very talented team and will be tough to beat.

#4 MIA Heat - I think they have the right mix of talent but something seems kind of off with them as well. I think they kick it up a notch come the playoffs and that puts them right there as a contender.

#5 BKN Nets - Durant is pretty much unstoppable, Irving may finally get to play in home games, and Simmons will be fresh for the playoffs. I think that they are still a huge question mark still but they might get it together come playoff time.

I left the Warriors off the list because I think they are trying to have their cake and eat it too this season by hanging on to their young guys instead of trying to build some better talent to help Curry, Green and Thompson win another title. That strategy may payoff later down the line but those young guys are all still too green this season.

[ajones9219]

we should just change the topic to "Which 5 teams have the best record right now" and go from there!

Of the 75 NBA championships, only twice has the winning team been seeded higher than 3.
53 times for the 1st seed
12 times for the 2nd seed
8 times for the 3rd seed
1 time for the 4th seed
0 times for the 5th seed
1 time for the 6th seed

It's a more reasonable stat than you probably realized. The Celtics are currently the 5th seed. They are a hot team that could claw up to but home court advantage also is important in winning a chip. They could very well end up being the #2 seed but they don't have a cakewalk schedule for the rest of the season (neither do the Bucks though).

The only non top 3 seeded teams to win are teams that had recently won championships (Boston '69, Houston 94-95).

The issue here is, can you leave Miami off considering they have the best record in the East? Seems hard to me. I can't leave the defending champs the Bucks off. So it's a toss up between Philly/Boston as the 3rd best team in the East (I think Chicago has been too up and down & has a lower SRS). Personally I think James Harden + having a better record keeps Philly in front of Boston. Then there is a strong argument that Memphis should be on the list and only 2 East teams should be in a top 5.

I'm sorry but what a dumb take. The Celtics were dealing with injuries to start the season. Even then, their starting 5 was statistically the best starting 5 in the league. They also had a brand new head coach. Teams improve over the course of a year, especially when injuries are at play. In 2022 they have been the best team in the league. That's over 2 full months. You don't decide a contender in November. The difference between the Nets and Celtics is the Celts have been playing elite for half the season.

You don't decide who the best team is in any small snapshot of a season. The Warriors lost all momentum with Draymond Green out, while they were on fire when he was playing. Philly has had Simmons out the whole season and just finished a trade that vastly improved them. The Bucks have also dealt with injuries. The Celtics are currently the 5th seed in the East, there is a good chance they will become the 3rd seed, but even then they'd be facing some long odds at becoming champion.

I don't think many people would take a healthy Boston over a healthy Phoenix right now. The Suns are 24-5 and Boston is 22-8 in 2022. This is with Chris Paul being out 3 of those 5. While Boston may be hot, the Suns are still clearly the best team in the league even with CP3 having been out for many games. The Grizzlies for example aren't that far off Boston this year, going 21-8 in 2022.

This entire section is an argument FOR Boston. Everyone thinks the Warriors are a contender despite their recent stretch. Philly was a fringe contender before Harden and now are firmly a contender.

Context matters. If Boston was healthy all year there is a reasonable chance they are a top 2 seed. Also historical data doesn't mean that much imo. Not when we are in the resting players era. Literally any team in the top 5 in the east could win the title. Phoenix and the Dubs could win a title. You can have teams over Boston and that's fine but it's a dumb take to dismiss the opinion of several people in this thread that Boston is absolutely a contender.

Also Boston's net rating > Phoenix. They have been the best team in 2022.

[jc23]

Suns
Nets
Philly
Bucks
Warriors

[Bornstellar]

1. Phoenix
2. Milwaukee

3. Philly
4. Miami

5. Brooklyn

[Kalela]

1. Bucks
2. Suns
3. Nets
4. Heat
5. Sixers

[CobraCommander]

Bucks, 76ers, Suns, heat and MAVS
It’s hard for me to to see a reason for why the mavs can’t come out the west... they beating every body...Luka good game they win —-Luka bad game they win...dude had 9 TOs and they won against GSW....

[jokeboy86]

Suns
Heat
76ers
Bucks
Warriors

A lot of wildcards:

Nets - they're tied with the team below as the biggest darkhorse because they have the talent when healthy, I just don't know if they have the time to gel or the coach to do it


Nuggets- There's simply no biggest question ahead of the playoffs other than the status and what MPJ and Murray look like if they come back.

Bulls- yes they're a year ahead of schedule but the reality also is they're still not relatively healthy and are missing 3 very big contributors who are due back before the season ends.

Celtics - They look really good right now but I still worry is too much on Tatum/Brown. Can't put my finger on what they're missing for me to have them unequivocally as solid contenders

Don't think Memphis, Utah, Dallas are serious contenders because imo they all are missing that legit #2 scoring threat.

I still don't know what to make of the Lakers because I believe their Big 3 have played less than 30 games together the whole season and AD/Lebron probably less than that.

[HardenMe]

I spy with my little eye.... a few Celtics homers.

Sweet, what's your argument against them?

James Harden and Joel Embiid on the same team

Sixers
Bucks
Suns
Heat
Warriors

[cupcakesnake]

we should just change the topic to "Which 5 teams have the best record right now" and go from there!

Of the 75 NBA championships, only twice has the winning team been seeded higher than 3.
53 times for the 1st seed
12 times for the 2nd seed
8 times for the 3rd seed
1 time for the 4th seed
0 times for the 5th seed
1 time for the 6th seed

It's a more reasonable stat than you probably realized. The Celtics are currently the 5th seed. They are a hot team that could claw up to but home court advantage also is important in winning a chip. They could very well end up being the #2 seed but they don't have a cakewalk schedule for the rest of the season (neither do the Bucks though).

The only non top 3 seeded teams to win are teams that had recently won championships (Boston '69, Houston 94-95).

The issue here is, can you leave Miami off considering they have the best record in the East? Seems hard to me. I can't leave the defending champs the Bucks off. So it's a toss up between Philly/Boston as the 3rd best team in the East (I think Chicago has been too up and down & has a lower SRS). Personally I think James Harden + having a better record keeps Philly in front of Boston. Then there is a strong argument that Memphis should be on the list and only 2 East teams should be in a top 5.

I appreciate the reasoning.
- Based on playoff probability, the Celtics are most likely to finish the season with 49 wins. That will make them somewhere between the 2 seed and the 4 seed. Milwaukee and Phili are also currently projected to finish with 49 wins according to basketball-reference. 538 has Boston as the 3 seed with Milwaukee (behind Miami and Phili). 538's algorithm typically values James Harden's affect on winning in the regular season quite a bit.
- I do think that this season has a higher chance than most of yielding a champion outside the top 3 (top 6 between the combined conferences). Not that I'm personally predicting that. I like Miami and Phoenix quite a bit. But it's impossible to ignore the leaguewide parity this year. There aren't any outlier "super teams" and there are so many dangerous lower seeds. Starting with Brooklyn, but the possible injury returns in Denver and LAC are pretty wild. Toronto has also been very good when healthy. Atlanta went to the ECF with the same roster last year. So while I'm picking the probably 1 seeds, the chance of this year being an absolute **** show is higher than it normally is.

[Yuri36]

No mention of the hottest team in 2022, the Mavs?

[Yuri36]

Bucks, 76ers, Suns, heat and MAVS
It’s hard for me to to see a reason for why the mavs can’t come out the west... they beating every body...Luka good game they win —-Luka bad game they win...dude had 9 TOs and they won against GSW....

It's their defense which is impressing me the most

[yellowknifer]

1. PHX
2. MIA
3. MIL
4. PHI
5. GSW

I just don't see the Nets as a viable contender this year. Not impressed with Nash, no faith in Simmons and low seeds do not win NBA championships. The Nets are going to make it to the 6 seed, so you're asking them to be the lowest seed to win the Finals in NBA history. That's not going to happen.

Houston did it at 6 and KD is that good. Can't count them out although definitely not my favorites.

I think

1. Phoenix
2. Philadelphia
3. Milwaukee
4. Miami
5. Golden State

[CobraCommander]

[url][/url]

Bucks, 76ers, Suns, heat and MAVS
It’s hard for me to to see a reason for why the mavs can’t come out the west... they beating every body...Luka good game they win —-Luka bad game they win...dude had 9 TOs and they won against GSW....

It's their defense which is impressing me the most

West worse than east....their d is actually stout when it matters...Luka taking more bad shots and TO more than anyone...yet they winning...consider what’s gonna happen if he cleans that up even a little bit....

[ajones9219]

I spy with my little eye.... a few Celtics homers.

Sweet, what's your argument against them?

James Harden and Joel Embiid on the same team

Sixers
Bucks
Suns
Heat
Warriors

?

The Sixers were in my top 5 lol

[old skool]

I think its a bad take to say that "Team X" would be a top 1 or 2 seed if they had been healthy all year. It is really uneven to project what a team would be if fully healthy, but at the same time ignore what their fully healthy record would be if their opponents were also healthy. That top 1 or 2 seed might drop back to a 4 seed if playing all healthy oppositions.

Would Golden State be better if Wiseman had played all year and Green was never hurt? Would Cleveland be better if Sexton, Rubio and now Allen were never injured? Would (pick a team) be better if they had never lost anyone to H&S protocols? Would Sixers have been better if Simmons had played? Or Chicago with Williams, Ball and Caruso? The Nuggets? The Nets? The Suns? Toronto? Orlando? You could play this game all day.

[ajones9219]

I think its a bad take to say that "Team X" would be a top 1 or 2 seed if they had been healthy all year. It is really uneven to project what a team would be if fully healthy, but at the same time ignore what their fully healthy record would be if their opponents were also healthy. That top 1 or 2 seed might drop back to a 4 seed if playing all healthy oppositions.

Would Golden State be better if Wiseman had played all year and Green was never hurt? Would Cleveland be better if Sexton, Rubio and now Allen were never injured? Would (pick a team) be better if they had never lost anyone to H&S protocols? Would Sixers have been better if Simmons had played? Or Chicago with Williams, Ball and Caruso? The Nuggets? The Nets? The Suns? Toronto? Orlando? You could play this game all day.

I mean that's fair if you're addressing my post. My point is just taking the top 5 records on the season is not the best way to say who the top contenders are right now. That completely discounts team improvement, roster changes, ect.

[JB2]

Just wait til LeBron activates championship mode and 2nd half Westbrook shows up

1) Philly 2) Suns 3) Bucks 4) Heat 5) Nets

[rocketsfan100]

Phoenix
Philly
Milwaukee


Then
Miami
Denver ( at full strength)

Nets are a mess. Curry and Drummond are overrated role players and Simmons is a wildcard. Kyrie and Durant are injury prone and Kyrie is a part time player