pepe1991 wrote:tiderulz wrote:pepe1991 wrote:
This is one of dummest things people like to say and think here and by default always leads teams to draft half baked, untalented kids with good physical profiles and little to non basketball skills because of "potential".
Jabari Smith, much like any 18,19 years old college players, plays basketball for years. Being close to youth basketball circles for years and being nba fan for 20 years now one thing i learned long time ago. Young kids in basketball, much like in any other sport figure out what they are good at and stick to it . Fat kid will always have tendency to turn back to opponent and push him inside, good shooter will camp at 3 key circles ( corner and straight to rim , easiest shots to make ) , kids good at non will always play hard to hustle below rim.
This does not mean player can't learn new things at age of 19, but much like it was case with Hezonja and dribbling, Payton and shooting, Gordon and shooting, Ja Morant and shooting, Josh Jackson and shooting, Steph Curry and defense or any other player and his weaknesses THEY NEVER GOT NBA GOOD AT THEIR WEAKNESSES! PERIOD!
"bUT hE iS 18 hE WiLl LeARN ". True and false. He will learn how to be more assertive and better at next level. That learning curve will never be nba good for skills who still does not have at age of 19 because it simply means it's too late and not part of his game. And that's fine. But it's delusional to think different.
Why Bamba didn't learn post moves 4 years into nba? Why Isaac didn't learn post moves? Why Howard and Amare were paying $50 000 to attent Hakeem teaching classes and never were able to post up with efficiency?
This is one of most annoying american -mindsets about basketball on this forum. Just because somebody is young that does not give him unlimited potental. Being young just means being born later than others.
As for Chet vs Jabari, the one thing I'd say is that a lot of Chet's value is tied up in rebounding and shot-blocking. These are two things he does very well at the college level. So if you put him out on the wing, you're not getting the most out of him. (Maybe you have to do it -- temporarily or permanently -- if he can't handle the physical game inside, but it's a real compromise. it cuts into his value. I don't think you draft him with the intent of moving him.)
As for Jabari... I mean, I don't know. He's a good shooter, he knocks down open college threes, that's cool. He also just... doesn't do much else? He's an inefficient scorer inside the arc, and can't finish around the basket. His rebounding is mediocre at best. Nobody's calling him a plus defender or passer/handler. I get that he's young, and I'm not saying he's a bad prospect. I'm just not seeing a real game-changing skill set here. Unlike Chet, where the question is "he has it, but can he use it at the next level?," there are real "does he have it?" questions with Jabari.
SO i'm asking you, why don't every player at age of 18 does not turn in lebron james? You think young = unlimited potential so why not? Why Magic don't draft bunch of 16 years old kids and turn them into 10 Lebron's? Maybe, just maybe for same reason why every draft has always same bust arytypes , ones that Magic love the most " athletic, can't shoot, long limbs" ( minus Wagner, who, suprise suprise, is best prospect they drafted in 15 years, and pretty much only one who does not fit their mold)
Bottom line: young player entering nba will almost never addopt new skillset, one that he never showed before and become nba level good ( or elite ) at it. NBA player, entering league at age of 19, more often than not, played basketball for 10 years already and his previous basketball experience along with countless amount of hours they spent with their coaches, playing street ball, playing youth tournaments molded him as player that made him sucessful to that date ( Cole being chucker is example i used on other thread for same ). If you have guy who stands at 6'10, is good shooter but isn't good rebounder, isn't good passer , isn't post presence, isn't pick&roll finisher, can't play center, can't play SF, can't put ball on the floor, can't drive left, can't drive much in general, isn't anything special defender ( but plays along side one ) than we can look at Marvin Willimas, Tobias Harris, maybe Rashard Lewis , very limited Towns arhytype. People here LOVE to use Jaren Jackson Jr as comp for him, issue is, Jarret Jackson Jr plays with Ja Morant AND spents almost 50% of his PT at center. Jabari will never be able to play center sucessful ( same reasons why Bamba can't, not good at pick&roll, no inside presence, poor skills at postups) so you are stuck with him at PF. In general "streach PF" who are "elite " almost don't exist in nba.Shheesh i wonder why is that? Maybe because today "PF is basically taller SF, and all good ones are super versitale. Jabari simply isn't. He is very tall shooter. Cool. That's not usless, but also not skill worth top pick.
when you start off calling me dumb and acting like you are the only one with basketball knowledge, im back to not engaging with you.
I'm calling your opinion dumb, not you. Difference is clear.
Learning curve for everything does not start at age of 18. All studies prove it kind a ends there.
Player can settle in, can adjust to new system, learn about new league, get nutrition and practice in check and normally by year 3- or 4he is finished product.
At average, nba player turns into allstar at age of 24, by default, for most players that's their 3rd or 4th nba season.
Players do get better, but they get better within skills they showed in past. Player, at age of 19, entering nba , already played that sport for 9 years at least.
Players rarly to never learn new skills in nba, ones that they showed no flashes off in past. College brick shooter ( MKG; MCW, Ben Simmons and others) almost never turn into even average nba shooters, let alone great ones.
Players without post moves ( Bamba, Isaac to name a few) almost never later become good at it.
Last year i called Okeke bench Ariza, you said i'm too impatient. Funny how this year you are yet to mention once that his rookie year was actually better than his sophmore year. So, i guess we need to wait additional 10 years ? Or maybe, just maybe i was right?
We just played Suns, they have that one 10th overall Magic lottery pick that were everybody was up in arms he will become good shooter "just give him time". He was DNP-CD guy tonight, like he is most of the season.
His rookie 3% was 26,2%. His career average is 28,8%, including with exponetional decline in usage of shot and usage of him as nba player as he never got any better at it. And this is execlly how expected progress looks like. 2-5% until your coach and GM figure that's not your game.
AG , rookie 27% ,career 32% , change of team , wide open looks, much easier role to fill, still 32% . That's his reality.
Ofc you can dig up everybody's favorite Chauncey Billups ( drafted 25 years ago and 1440 players later) and Kyle Lowry drafted 14 years ago and 780 players later, but ask yourself simple question: if my best hope is one out of seven hundred eighty how f*** am I?
What's your opinion about Jarret Culver ?
How about Killian Hayes.
How about our kid Cole Anthony ?
You telling me they can develop new skills, so why don't we collect all 19 yeras old scrubs and see how that goes?
Just keep in mind Killian Hayes is 20, soo... by your logic...just proper development and he is Lebron James in no time.
To me this is crazy talk .Player will enter nba with some skills ,either work on them and get nba- level good at it, or will simply not translate and his skillset will be wasteful. Every nba player has some skills and NO nba player has all the skills. Jarret Culver / Josh Jackson might be way more all around talented player than Duncan Robinson, but Duncan can do his role at nba level, where not a Jackson / Culver don't have clear plus size skill for nba, therfore they are not nba players. But all around, no dubt, Jackson is waaaaaaaay more talented and skilled than Duncan Robinson.