Regular season: 04 Garnett vs 22 Jokic

[No-more-rings]

Regular season only. Who was better/more impactful?

[Lou Fan]

As high as I am on Jokic 04 Garnett is on the shortlist of GOAT seasons

[dygaction]

05 KG was not much worse than 04 KG, but he did not make the playoffs. 22 version Jokic carries a historic bad team to 13 above .500. Replacing KG with Jokic, the Wolves could have made playoffs in 05 and 06. KG would not be able to carry this Nuggets team to playoffs simply as there is not enough playmaking.

Jokic's offense is better from every aspect, shooting efficiency, volume, shot creation, assists... The difference is too big for KG to make from defensive end.
Garnett per 100: 33.2p/19.0r/6.8a/2.0s/3.0b/112ORtg/92DRtg
N Jokic per 100: 38.6p/20.5r/12.0a/2.0s/1.2b/125ORtg/104DRtg

KG's argument against other ATGs was mainly on advanced stats, but Jokic's are better across the board.
PER: 29.4 vs. 32.6 Historical great
TS%: .547 vs. .632 Huge difference
TRB%: 20.1 vs. 23.2
AST%: 24.4 vs. 44.2 Huge difference
STL%: 2.0 vs. 2.0
BLK%: 4.0 vs. 2.2 Huge difference
WS/48: .272 vs. .298
BPM: 10.2 vs. 13.9
VORP: 10.0 vs. 8.0

A better comparison would be KG and this year's Giannis. Both DPOY level players, and whatever KG's advantage on defensive end would not make up Giannis' edge on the offensive end - way more dominant and efficient scorer.

[70sFan]

I think it's fairly close, but I don't like judging RS alone without postseason run. I might prefer Garnett's defense that made him extremely versatile weapon in playoffs, though at the same time Jokic's offense is tiers ahead. I don't know, it's close.

[falcolombardi]

was not 2004 garnett the best regular season ever per plus minus métrics? (ever as in the 25 seasons we have +/- for, not actually ever*)

[falcolombardi]

05 KG was not much worse than 04 KG, but he did not make the playoffs. 22 version Jokic carries a historic bad team to 13 above .500. Replacing KG with Jokic, the Wolves could have made playoffs in 05 and 06. KG would not be able to carry this Nuggets team to playoffs simply as there is not enough playmaking.

Jokic's offense is better from every aspect, shooting efficiency, volume, shot creation, assists... The difference is too big for KG to make from defensive end.
Garnett per 100: 33.2p/19.0r/6.8a/2.0s/3.0b/112ORtg/92DRtg
N Jokic per 100: 38.6p/20.5r/12.0a/2.0s/1.2b/125ORtg/104DRtg

KG's argument against other ATGs was mainly on advanced stats, but Jokic's are better across the board.
PER: 29.4 vs. 32.6 Historical great
TS%: .547 vs. .632 Huge difference
TRB%: 20.1 vs. 23.2
AST%: 24.4 vs. 44.2 Huge difference
STL%: 2.0 vs. 2.0
BLK%: 4.0 vs. 2.2 Huge difference
WS/48: .272 vs. .298
BPM: 10.2 vs. 13.9
VORP: 10.0 vs. 8.0

A better comparison would be KG and this year's Giannis. Both DPOY level players, and whatever KG's advantage on defensive end would not make up Giannis' edge on the offensive end - way more dominant and efficient scorer.

this seems fairly speculative to use as an argument, we dont actually know what it would look like if they switched teams

inagine if i said:

"2021 jokic was not significatively worse than 2022 jokic and had much more talent but a similar team record, so that would mean jokic is a floor raiser who doesnt maximize talented teams, he can make bad teams good, but he wont take teams to real heights(tm)"

(aka the lebron criticism special)

that is similar to what you are doing there by diminishng 2004 garnett based on the struggles of 2005 wolves

(which, for whatever is worth, played like a near 50 win team when healthy per ben Taylor write up on garnett)

as per the stats argument

- most of those you mention like per and win shares are Production/boxscore based and dont really account for defense the way plus-minus...well not exactly account for but capture

- true shooting in 2004 is way lower than 2022, like 4%~ kind of lower

[dygaction]

05 KG was not much worse than 04 KG, but he did not make the playoffs. 22 version Jokic carries a historic bad team to 13 above .500. Replacing KG with Jokic, the Wolves could have made playoffs in 05 and 06. KG would not be able to carry this Nuggets team to playoffs simply as there is not enough playmaking.

Jokic's offense is better from every aspect, shooting efficiency, volume, shot creation, assists... The difference is too big for KG to make from defensive end.
Garnett per 100: 33.2p/19.0r/6.8a/2.0s/3.0b/112ORtg/92DRtg
N Jokic per 100: 38.6p/20.5r/12.0a/2.0s/1.2b/125ORtg/104DRtg

KG's argument against other ATGs was mainly on advanced stats, but Jokic's are better across the board.
PER: 29.4 vs. 32.6 Historical great
TS%: .547 vs. .632 Huge difference
TRB%: 20.1 vs. 23.2
AST%: 24.4 vs. 44.2 Huge difference
STL%: 2.0 vs. 2.0
BLK%: 4.0 vs. 2.2 Huge difference
WS/48: .272 vs. .298
BPM: 10.2 vs. 13.9
VORP: 10.0 vs. 8.0

A better comparison would be KG and this year's Giannis. Both DPOY level players, and whatever KG's advantage on defensive end would not make up Giannis' edge on the offensive end - way more dominant and efficient scorer.

this seems fairly speculative to use as an argument, we dont actually know what it would look like if they switched teams

inagine if i said:

"2021 jokic was not significatively worse than 2022 jokic and had much more talent but a similar team record, so that would mean jokic is a floor raiser who doesnt maximize talented teams, he can make bad teams good, but he wont take teams to real heights(tm)"

(aka the lebron criticism special)

that is similar to what you are doing there by diminishng 2004 garnett based on the struggles of 2005 wolves

(which, for whatever is worth, played like a near 50 win team when healthy per ben Taylor write up on garnett)

Fair enough, we can leave the assumption aside although KG's 04 and 05 raw stats and advanced metrics are really very comparable whereas Jokic's 22 is better than 21, particular on the defensive end.

as per the stats argument

- most of those you mention like per and win shares are Production/boxscore based and dont really account for defense the way plus-minus...well not exactly account for but capture

- true shooting in 2004 is way lower than 2022, like 4%~ kind of lower

I took stats from BBReference and was too lazy to find everything so feel free to post others.
Their TS% difference is 8.5%, so even after adjusting the sizable era difference 4%, Jokic still has a 4.5% sizable advantage.

[Peregrine01]

At this point, I think that Jokic's offensive advantage is bigger than KG's defensive advantage and mainly because this may well be a GOAT offensive season. Jokic is carrying the Nuggets to the 8th best offense in the league this year...and without their second and third best offensive players.

Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are posting a 118 ORTG (better than the best in the league by 2 pts) and with him off, they're doing 103 (worse that the worst in the league). As great as KG's defense was, I have a hard time thinking that his defensive advantage over Jokic can be this large.

[No-more-rings]

At this point, I think that Jokic's offensive advantage is bigger than KG's defensive advantage and mainly because this may well be a GOAT offensive season. Jokic is carrying the Nuggets to the 8th best offense in the league this year...and without their second and third best offensive players.

Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are posting a 118 ORTG (better than the best in the league by 2 pts) and with him off, they're doing 103 (worse that the worst in the league). As great as KG's defense was, I have a hard time thinking that his defensive advantage over Jokic can be this large.

Not sure how on/off is an argument for Jokic when KG looked even better in that department.

[70sFan]

Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are posting a 118 ORTG (better than the best in the league by 2 pts) and with him off, they're doing 103 (worse that the worst in the league). As great as KG's defense was, I have a hard time thinking that his defensive advantage over Jokic can be this large.

Where do you get your data from? By Basketball Reference, Denver are 108 without Jokic on the floor, so your numbers clearly overstate his impact.

Not to mention that Garnett looks even better by on/off numbers. Even if you take into account offense only.

[Peregrine01]

Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are posting a 118 ORTG (better than the best in the league by 2 pts) and with him off, they're doing 103 (worse that the worst in the league). As great as KG's defense was, I have a hard time thinking that his defensive advantage over Jokic can be this large.

Where do you get your data from? By Basketball Reference, Denver are 108 without Jokic on the floor, so your numbers clearly overstate his impact.

Not to mention that Garnett looks even better by on/off numbers. Even if you take into account offense only.

From NBA Wowy.

[70sFan]

Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are posting a 118 ORTG (better than the best in the league by 2 pts) and with him off, they're doing 103 (worse that the worst in the league). As great as KG's defense was, I have a hard time thinking that his defensive advantage over Jokic can be this large.

Where do you get your data from? By Basketball Reference, Denver are 108 without Jokic on the floor, so your numbers clearly overstate his impact.

Not to mention that Garnett looks even better by on/off numbers. Even if you take into account offense only.

From NBA Wowy.

Can you explain me why the difference is so drastic?

[Peregrine01]

Where do you get your data from? By Basketball Reference, Denver are 108 without Jokic on the floor, so your numbers clearly overstate his impact.

Not to mention that Garnett looks even better by on/off numbers. Even if you take into account offense only.

From NBA Wowy.

Can you explain me why the difference is so drastic?

I dont think the bballref numbers are all that accurate. I’ve noticed big discrepancies between their numbers and NBA Wowy quite frequently. Wowy does play by play recording so I trust their numbers a lot more.

[70sFan]

From NBA Wowy.

Can you explain me why the difference is so drastic?

I dont think the bballref numbers are all that accurate. I’ve noticed big discrepancies between their numbers and NBA Wowy quite frequently. Wowy does play by play recording so I trust their numbers a lot more.

I look at NBA.com stats and although they look different, they don't show 118->103 difference:

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612743/onoffcourt-advanced/

Denver with Jokic: 116.5 ORtg
Denver without Jokic: 103.5 ORtg

It's still noticeable lesser difference than in Garnett's case (though we don't have NBA.com version of Wolves on-off).

[Jaivl]

Aaaaaaaaaaah. I may take Jokic, he's that good.

[letskissbro]

Garnett. I think it's easier to pair him with an offensive guard/forward and win a title than it is to surround Jokic with two-way players or pair him with a switchable rim protecting 4 like Draymond so that he doesn't get exploited by pnr/scoring guards (big issue in the Phoenix series last year, Blazers series in 2019 and last year).

For bigs all time defense is more conducive to winning titles than tier 1 offense when it comes with replacement level or below defense. KG also provides similar (although significantly neutered) intangibles on offense with his floor spacing and passing.

[Jaivl]

KG also provides similar (although significantly neutered) intangibles on offense with his floor spacing and passing.

I mean, Garnett has historically been a top 3 shooter and passer for a star big man... but Jokic is better as a shooter and MUCH better as a passer, to the point they're not really comparable on offense, even discounting scoring and considering Garnett is one of the GOAT illegal screeners.

[letskissbro]

KG also provides similar (although significantly neutered) intangibles on offense with his floor spacing and passing.

I mean, Garnett has historically been a top 3 shooter and passer for a star big man. But Jokic is better as a shooter and MUCH better as a passer, to the point they're not really comparable on offense, even discounting scoring and considering Garnett is one of the GOAT illegal screeners.

Which is why I said significantly neutered... From a team building perspective spacing at the 4/5 is incredibly important and one of the most impactful intangible skills out there. It's how Marc Gasol had such a huge impact even late in his career when he barely score or move and it's a big reason why KG is underrated offensively. Again though never insinuated they're in the same realm offensively.

[falcolombardi]

Garnett. I think it's easier to pair him with an offensive guard/forward and win a title than it is to surround Jokic with two-way players or pair him with a switchable rim protecting 4 like Draymond so that he doesn't get exploited by pnr/scoring guards (big issue in the Phoenix series last year, Blazers series in 2019 and last year).

For bigs all time defense is more conducive to winning titles than tier 1 offense when it comes with replacement level or below defense. KG also provides similar (although significantly neutered) intangibles on offense with his floor spacing and passing.

is jokic a replacement level or below defender? he seems a bit above par to me, good effort and defensive rebounding although not the best "horizontal" movement when forced to leave the paint or top tier rim protection

when i watch shaq games he seems fairly dissapointing defensively (if probably still above average)with how little effort he puts to move in defense beyond the rim

but shaq still was able to lead an all time level offensive dinasty that had a decent to sometimes good defense. and jokic while in a different style may be the best offensive big man since shaq (or maybe ever? up there with kareem for sure)

[letskissbro]

Garnett. I think it's easier to pair him with an offensive guard/forward and win a title than it is to surround Jokic with two-way players or pair him with a switchable rim protecting 4 like Draymond so that he doesn't get exploited by pnr/scoring guards (big issue in the Phoenix series last year, Blazers series in 2019 and last year).

For bigs all time defense is more conducive to winning titles than tier 1 offense when it comes with replacement level or below defense. KG also provides similar (although significantly neutered) intangibles on offense with his floor spacing and passing.

is jokic a replacement level or below defender? he seems a bit above par to me, good effort and defensive rebounding although not the best "horizontal" movement when forced to leave the paint or top tier rim protection

when i watch shaq games he seems fairly dissapointing defensively (if probably still above average)with how little effort he puts to move in defense beyond the rim

but shaq still was able to lead an all time level offensive dinasty that had a decent to sometimes good defense. and jokic while in a different style may be the best offensive big man since shaq (or maybe ever? up there with kareem for sure)

Well his on court numbers are much better this year but he's still a bad rim protector and struggles with quickness so in theory he should still be very exploitable. Over the regular season when teams aren't really game planning it doesn't matter as much but teams will do their best to target him the postseason.

They did this in 2021 and it showed hard. Lillard had by the best series of his career putting up 34ppg/10apg on 66% TS and the Blazers posted a 120 offensive rating over 6 games. Same thing happened against Phoenix with Chris Paul putting up 26/10 on 74% and multiple Suns players playing above expectations. Jokic ended the postseason with a putrid 125 on court DRtg. Honestly looking back at those numbers even calling him replacement level feels generous. I have a really hard time believing he's improved as much as the on/off numbers indicate. There are physical disadvantages that just can't be overcome with improved effort or positioning. But who knows, maybe I'm wrong.

Shaq was about as bad on the perimeter and that would be exploited more in today's league but his presence at the rim was a huge deterrent that gave him a significant leg up over Jokic.