2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 6) - with ROY poll

[LoveMyRaps]

It'd be pretty cool if all 3 guys won the award tbh. I think it's a possibility.

[Kalamazoo317]

It'd be pretty cool if all 3 guys won the award tbh. I think it's a possibility.

Reminds me of the last year that the Pistons had a rookie this good: Grant Hill and Jason Kidd split the award.

[yoyoboy]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

[JackTalkThai]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

So we should progress forward reserving ROTY for players on better teams and for players with lesser, more complimentary roles that naturally lend themselves to higher efficiencies.

[Ambrose]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

Pistons w/ Cade 17-37
Pistons w/o Cade 1-14

Cade is near the top of the team in OnCourt and On/Off too. His contribution to winning games is obvious.

[yoyoboy]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

So we should progress forward reserving ROTY for players on better teams and for players with lesser, more complimentary roles that naturally lend themselves to higher efficiencies.

Mobley is literally the biggest reason why this Cavs team has jumped from 25th in the league on defense to 4th in the league, despite having largely the same exact rotation players and same coach otherwise. This idea that size of role should just be determined from the offensive side of the ball is so dumb and short sighted considering how good Mobley has been defensively. People are just so used to making the ROTY award about “who had the most PPG and APG?” regardless of how inefficient they were or how much value they contributed to winning games, and I’m glad the media and voters are finally waking up to the idea that impact should be prioritized over simply getting the most opportunities to accumulate offensive counting stats.

[yoyoboy]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

Pistons w/ Cade 17-37
Pistons w/o Cade 1-14

Cade is near the top of the team in OnCourt and On/Off too. His contribution to winning games is obvious.

Raw W-L in games played versus missed isn’t a good metric to use here. The sample is too limited and subject to variance. If you want to make a convincing argument, you can use team SRS with Cade playing versus not playing. And keep in mind, that record with Cade playing is still awful. I still value guys who make below average teams good over guys who make terrible teams less bad.

Cade ranks behind Mobley and Barnes in RAPM by the way and every isolating impact stat I’ve looked at, so I suspect that disparity in record has a lot of noise involved.

[Ambrose]

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

Pistons w/ Cade 17-37
Pistons w/o Cade 1-14

Cade is near the top of the team in OnCourt and On/Off too. His contribution to winning games is obvious.

Raw W-L in games played versus missed isn’t a good metric to use here. The sample is too limited and subject to variance. If you want to make a convincing argument, you can use team SRS with Cade playing versus not playing. And keep in mind, that record with Cade playing is still awful. I still value guys who make below average teams good over guys who make terrible teams less bad.

Cade ranks behind Mobley and Barnes in RAPM by the way and every isolating impact stat I’ve looked at, so I suspect that disparity in record has a lot of noise involved.

If you want to ignore the evidence that he makes a difference in the W-L column that's on you. It's not a limited sample at all. I'm not even comparing him to Mobley, who is easily my ROY. I'm simply stating the obvious that Cade's already an impactful player.

[everdiso]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

The question remains - when is the last time the 5th highest scoring rookie had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him? it's literally never happened.

People are placing a whole lotta confidence in their eye test of his defensive ability - note that every single advanced impact stat out there rates his defense as good, but not great.


I would guess there have been quite a few rookies who have been close to as good a complementary help defender as Mobley has been so far. No surprise of course that the Cavs have struggled defensively with their primary post defender injured, of course.

[DG88]

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[LoveMyRaps]

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[HotelVitale]

I always like the rookie thread and don't mind the ROY debate, but I have to remind folks how stupid it ultimately is. The most tense debates I can remember were these 3, with folks mustering pages and pages of statistics plus the usual vitriol and righteous spite, and man did those debates become irrelevant quickly:

-2016 Wiggins vs Mirotic vs Noel: Wiggins was kinda empty stats but impressive at times, Mirotic was solid and played a key role on a decent team, Noel was intriguing on a bad team; Wiggins remained empty stats but impressive for a while, Mirotic was a good but inconsistent role player before leaving the NBA, Noel never got much past 'intriguing'
-2017: Brogdon vs Saric vs Embiid: Brogdon was old but a very good role player on a good team, Saric was solid but nothing special, and Embiid was great but missed half the season; Brogdon became a nice starter, Saric an okay back-up, and Embiid a superstar
-2015 MCW vs Oladipo: MCW had nice counting stats on a bad team, Oladipo had worse counting stats but slightly better efficiency on a bad team; MCW never got any better and slowly faded away, Oladipo was okay for a few years before making a random huge leap to being a star for two years before the injuries set in

[yoyoboy]

Pistons w/ Cade 17-37
Pistons w/o Cade 1-14

Cade is near the top of the team in OnCourt and On/Off too. His contribution to winning games is obvious.

Raw W-L in games played versus missed isn’t a good metric to use here. The sample is too limited and subject to variance. If you want to make a convincing argument, you can use team SRS with Cade playing versus not playing. And keep in mind, that record with Cade playing is still awful. I still value guys who make below average teams good over guys who make terrible teams less bad.

Cade ranks behind Mobley and Barnes in RAPM by the way and every isolating impact stat I’ve looked at, so I suspect that disparity in record has a lot of noise involved.

If you want to ignore the evidence that he makes a difference in the W-L column that's on you. It's not a limited sample at all. I'm not even comparing him to Mobley, who is easily my ROY. I'm simply stating the obvious that Cade's already an impactful player.

It’s limited when SRS (point differential adjusted for strength of schedule) doesn’t line up with the raw W-L. That’s why we have SRS. It’s a better measure of true team performance over portions of the season and honestly over the course of an entire season, as well. I didn’t say Cade wasn’t an impactful player by the way. He’s just not contributing to a “winning team” like Mobley and Barnes are. If those guys are even having similar impact to Cade but on much better teams, that’s more valuable to me.

[Backcountry]

Whoever wins (and I picked Barnes partly because I'm a homer but mainly because of his high position in so many leading metrics compared to the others), this rookie class is going to be remembered for being one of the strongest overall classes ever. The top 8 are all showing the potential to be long-time allstars (with a few superstars). The next 8 will mostly be solid options with good careers. There are some very good later picks (Jones and Dosunmu in particular stand out), and plenty of development cases who may surprise in a few years. One to remember, for sure.

For Barnes case, on top of his high position in so many indicators, he is the most versatile rookie. He's started games at centre, at PG, at SF. He can play any position, and asks to guard the other team's best (Durant, Lebron, Luka etc.). He owned Lebron the other night.

The way things look now, I think the voting will go Mobley, Barnes, Cade. I think it should go Barnes, Mobley, Cade. And it could go Mobley, Cade, Barnes because Toronto is the most ignored NBA city and most voters are in the US (ESPN reps have over 20% of the 100 votes!). Yes, that's me being resentful.

[yoyoboy]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

The question remains - when is the last time the 5th highest scoring rookie had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him? it's literally never happened.

People are placing a whole lotta confidence in their eye test of his defensive ability - note that every single advanced impact stat out there rates his defense as good, but not great.


I would guess there have been quite a few rookies who have been close to as good a complementary help defender as Mobley has been so far. No surprise of course that the Cavs have struggled defensively with their primary post defender injured, of course.

Again, we have mostly the same rotation guys as last year and the same coach, but now we’re 4th in the league on defense instead of 25th. Mobley is the biggest reason for that and most people without an agenda recognize that. It’s not Garland all of a sudden becoming some lockdown defensive guard. Okoro is a little improved but he’s for the most part the same guy he was last year where he’s a limited defender who just excels in 1-on-1 matchups against smaller guards and doesn’t provide much help defense or switchability. Love, Cedi, Dean Wade, and Lamar Stevens are what they are. Lauri is not a better defender than Nance was. And it’s no coincidence Allen in his 5th year all of a sudden becomes a much more impactful defender by the metrics. Playing alongside Mobley, with his versatility, length, and mobility, has made his life a lot easier and allowed him to focus on what he excels at. Even when Sexton was playing this, the defense looked good, so the argument that Sexton’s defense is so negative his absence alone vaulted them over 20 spots on defense doesn’t fly either. It’s a factor not playing a small backcourt for sure, but Mobley is pretty clearly the primary enabler.

And you’re trying to discredit Mobley by saying Allen has helped him by allowing him not to play center. But I mean...he’s not a center. He’s a power forward. So it’s a really weird criteria to judge a guy by how he plays out of position instead of judging him by how he’s played in his actual position. Of course we’ve struggled without Allen because 1) he’s obviously a very good player, and 2) the Cavs have no backup center options. Our theoretical option Ed Davis is washed and so Mobley is forced to play alongside Love for big stretches, which isn’t optimal defensively (and definitely hurts the impact stats) since Mobley can’t bang with the bigger centers and Love isn’t even pretending to be a rim protector. I don’t see why that’s some grand indictment on Mobley. The logic makes no sense.

[God Squad]

I'm still surprised people care so much about ROY. I'm just happy Barnes didn't bust and looks to have ceiling

[djsunyc]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

drtg pre all star / post all star break

mobley drtg - 103.6 / 115.3
cade drtg - 112.5 / 114.1
barnes drtg - 108.7 / 105.7

mobley benefitted alot from allen being around. his drtg fell off a cliff after the break and especially after allen got hurt.

cade's defensive impact has been bad all year.

scottie's defensive impact is getting better.

[MoneyTalks41890]

No longer a real ROY candidate, but I thought this was interesting:

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[yoyoboy]

When is the last time the rookie who was only 5th in rookie scoring had such a "ROY locked up" narrative around him?

When’s the last time a rookie has come in as good of a defender as Mobley? It’s almost as if his case isn’t predicated on raw PPG. Especially when the gap between 1st and 5th is just 1.8 ppg and the 5th ranking guy has been considerably more efficient, being over 5 percentage points higher in TS%.

To me, Barnes is at the least knocking on the door. Cade on the other hand has no case whatsoever based on his overall season. Give me guys who are more efficient and contributing to winning teams over the decent looking slash line on bad efficiency on a horrid team. And I like Cade’s future in this league by the way; his rookie season just hasn’t been ROTY material. At 15 games missed so far, he’s even missed almost twice as many as Mobley up to this point.

drtg pre all star / post all star break

mobley drtg - 103.6 / 115.3
cade drtg - 112.5 / 114.1
barnes drtg - 108.7 / 105.7

mobley benefitted alot from allen being around. his drtg fell off a cliff after the break and especially after allen got hurt.

cade's defensive impact has been bad all year.

scottie's defensive impact is getting better.

Because Mobley is a power forward and since Allen’s gone out he’s being forced to play out of position at center since this team has no other options. That doesn’t represent the kind of value he’s provided at his natural PF position, which he’s been playing the majority of the year. The Cavs have gotten just one national TV game all year and people generally don’t watch this team so I’m not surprised people don’t understand the circumstances. Again, people keep ignoring the very obvious turnaround from 25th in DRTG last year to 4th this year, with the rotation beyond the addition of Mobley being pretty much the same outside of swapping Nance for Lauri (a defensive downgrade if anything) and the coaching carrying over, as well. Something that’s very clearly an indicator of Mobley’s level of impact and convenient to brush over.

Furthermore it’s funny to see people keep focusing on these “post All-Star numbers.” It’s Rookie of the YEAR. Not rookie of this arbitrary stretch I choose to make my rookie look better. 85% of the season thus far has happened before the ASB. Ignoring that is just really silly. In the case of the Cavs, Allen played in half this team’s games after the ASB. The team has posted a 117.0 DRTG in the 5 games he played. The team has posted a 112.0 DRTG in the 4 games he missed completely and 1 he got injured in the 1st Q. So even that narrative of the team falling apart on defense without Allen hasn’t been true. The whole team has just been in a defensive rut after the All-Star break and it’s not because Mobley is reliant on Allen like you suggest.

[Vampirate]

I honestly think it's a toss up between Mobley and Barnes overall for rookie of the year at this point. For a while Mobley was easily leading, especially in advanced stats but Barnes has caught up.

They are neck and neck including advanced stats at this point.

Cade has a very bright future and his quality of teammates are not as good as Barnes or Mobley's are, but for ROY it has to be stated that his overall efficiency is just not that good on the year overall and he turns the ball over more than i'd like.

This is not stating Cade he doesn't have All Star potential or higher. ROY is just for this year and nothing else.