Zonkerbl wrote:So here we are 20 days after Putin's apparently very ill-advised invasion of Ukraine. I suspect the Russians were assuming they would face the same amount of resistance they did during the first invasion of Crimea in 2014, so expected to just storm in with a bunch of old soviet era tanks with just enough fuel to reach Kyiv. In retrospect it seems obvious that Ukraine would harden themselves to another tank invasion and prepare by buying a bunch of anti-tank weapons from the US and other friendly EU nations and gaming out how they would slow down/stop another tank attack. Which they've done.
What's next? I imagine Putin sent all his best tanks, so I doubt he has anything in reserve that is not rickety and easily destroyed by anti-tank missiles. He can mount a marine invasion from the Black Sea, which is risky if Ukraine can purchase anti-ship systems from the EU in time. He can indiscriminately bomb Kyiv and other urban areas he's trying to take over, although we know from WWII that indiscriminately bombing cities without having a specific military target in mind accomplishes exactly nothing, except making the people who live there extremely angry at you. Putin could use chemical weapons but that would probably result in the US and NATO jumping in, which is a fight he knows he can't win (especially now that he realizes his military is no match for Western weapons). Or he could use nukes, with the same effect of drawing US/NATO in and also obliterating the cities he eventually wants to own.
Also apparently Germany is willing to boycott Russian natural gas purchases? If that's true that's pretty huge. I'll believe it when I see it of course, they are just extraordinarily dependent on Russian natural gas.
Anyway, I'm calling it - I think Putin's already lost. In addition, all the successful propaganda campaigns he pursued in the US and the EU to get right wingers to buy into his BS went up in a puff of smoke 20 days ago. He spent all his political capital on this one moment and it was an enormous bust. Sucks to be him.
That's where Putin becomes even more dangerous. He has turned this into a moral crusade, the endgame of a lifetime of power manipulations, to re-win World War 2 and roll back glasnost and perestroika. He's entering his 70's and has no retirement plan other than world domination, or leastways control of everything he believes Russia deserves. He doesn't have to care about the opinions or suffering of Russian people, he can arrest them if they are loud and unhappy. He believes his own propaganda. Getting high on his own supply, as one headline had it. How does he salvage a win out of this? He has no grounds to retreat, only to double down. No terrible options are off the table. Nuclear extortion. Mass civilian casualties. All out cyberwar. Further interference in democratic elections. Assassinations. Etc. The only pushback has come from his billionaire countrymen. And even then, he can simply squeeze them out, seize whatever assets they have. His recent quotes suggest he's ready to go full Stalin within his own borders. With especially bitter invective towards oligarchs who criticize him.
"Of course they (the West) will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors - on those who earn their money here, but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking," he told government ministers, three weeks into Russia's war with Ukraine.
"Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors, and just to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths."
Putin said the West was trying to divide Russia and provoke civil confrontation with the help of its "fifth column".
"And there is one aim - the destruction of Russia," he said, adding that Russia would repel such efforts.
"I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."
His rhetoric is increasingly paranoid over the last few years. Unhinged. A Putin that has lost is one with nothing left to lose. His lifetime legacy is at stake. We have already heard him suggest Ukraine might have soon acquired weapons of mass destruction. I would not be surprised to hear him suggest that Western forces are secretly giving them these weapons. Etc. And suggest it is only right for Russia to use such weapons to 'defend' itself. Preemptively even. There is no check on his power within Russia. Failure, economic or otherwise makes him even more of a cornered rat. Unless someone inside his own power structure uses his own nefarious means against him, or he is able to be temporarily bribed with a salvaged win, a PR win, Putin will not end with a passive loss. Scorched earth is his exit plan. His overreach puts us all in jeopardy.
