Rui Hachimura 2.0

[prime1time]

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?s=20&t=sgAa0BpO5EiSjY-jPsMPzw
Hmmm, doesn't look like we are planning on moving on from him any time soon lol

[payitforward]

He hasn't gotten worse. His role has changed. This is what happens when you only focus on stats. We've basically eliminated easy points from his game. We use him as a spot up 3-point shooter. Unless it's a fast break the vast majority of his 2-point shots, he creates from scratch. That's why his 2 point fg% has dropped. We need to stop pushing this narrative that a player is worse at something because his percentages have gone down....

Sorry, prime, but this is nonsense.

Do you think Rui's gotten better at the 3, because his 3-point % has gone up on increased volume? I sure do, & I bet you do too.

In fact, that's what we mean by "better." Ditto if a player's FT% goes down. That's worse. That's what the words mean.

You can't have it both ways, sorry. You can't explain away what you don't like while pointing up what you do like. To know how good Rui is overall -- Rui or any other player! -- we have to look at all the things he does.

Rui's 2-point % has gone down, he gets to the line less often, his FT% has dropped a bit, & his rebounding has declined. Those facts are real too. & more rebounds = better. Fewer rebounds = worse. Period. But, b/c more steals = better, & fewer steals = worse, the fact that Rui's steals have gone UP also helps him be a BETTER player. Etc.

Overall, his scoring has improved. Overall, some other stuff has gotten better, some gotten worse, some is more or less unchanged. Overall, so far, Rui seems to have gotten a little better this season. Not a lot better, but even a little better is a good thing.

Which teams are better, prime? The ones that win more games, or the ones that win fewer games? Well, the ones that win more games have better stats -- & that's because stats & stats alone determine which team wins a game. Every game. No exceptions.

& the teams that have better stats, the better teams, have them because their players have them. That's all team stats are: player stats added up. Better players post better stats -- that's what we mean when we say they're "better."

Do coaches have an effect? Sure -- but their effect shows up in the players' stats. It has to; otherwise, it can't have an effect on the game.

Basketball isn't a gymnastics floor routine! We're not holding up signs that read "10" or some lower figure. Basketball leaves a bunch of results that add up to winning or losing. That's the basis of good & bad in basketball.

[nate33]

He hasn't gotten worse. His role has changed. This is what happens when you only focus on stats. We've basically eliminated easy points from his game. We use him as a spot up 3-point shooter. Unless it's a fast break the vast majority of his 2-point shots, he creates from scratch. That's why his 2 point fg% has dropped. We need to stop pushing this narrative that a player is worse at something because his percentages have gone down....

Sorry, prime, but this is nonsense.

Do you think Rui's gotten better at the 3, because his 3-point % has gone up on increased volume? I sure do, & I bet you do too.

In fact, that's what we mean by "better." Ditto if a player's FT% goes down. That's worse. That's what the words mean.

& it's equally true that Rui's 2-point % has gone down, he gets to the line less often, his FT% has dropped a bit, & his rebounding has declined. Those facts are real too. & more rebounds = better. Fewer rebounds = worse. Period.

You can't have it both ways, sorry. You can't explain away what you don't like while pointing up what you do like. To know how good Rui is overall -- Rui or any other player! -- we have to look at all the things he does.

So too, b/c more steals = better, & fewer steals = worse, the fact that Rui's steals have gone UP also helps him be a BETTER player.

Overall, so far, Rui seems to have gotten a little better this season. Not a lot better, but even a little better is a good thing.

Which teams are better, prime? The ones that win more games, or the ones that win fewer games? Well, the ones that win more games have better stats -- & that's because stats & stats alone determine which team wins a game. Every game. No exceptions.

& the teams that have better stats, the better teams, have them because their players have them. That's all team stats are: player stats added up.

Do coaches have an effect? Sure -- but their effect shows up in the players' stats. It has to; otherwise, it can't have an effect on the game.

It's not "nonsense". What's nonsense is you condescendingly dismissing prime1time's legitimate point.

Rui's role has changed because he is essentially playing a lot more SF this year. Offensively, he is clearly in the SF role, mostly camping out at the 3-point line. It has reduced his post touches and roll touches, which are opportunities to draw fouls, while increasing his 3-point attempts. That has improved his TS% considerably while detracting from his offensive rebounds.

On defense, his role is slightly different in that he guards SF's when alongside Kuzma, and the team switches a lot more regularly. That's probably impacting his defensive rebounds just a little bit. Hachimura is also playing alongside a bunch of better rebounders this year than he did in his rookie season. Avdija and Kuzma are better rebounders than Bertans and Troy Brown Jr respectively.

[Frichuela]

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?s=20&t=sgAa0BpO5EiSjY-jPsMPzw
Hmmm, doesn't look like we are planning on moving on from him any time soon lol

Good point. It's obvious his marketing appeal is a big plus for Terd...

[Ruzious]

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?s=20&t=sgAa0BpO5EiSjY-jPsMPzw
Hmmm, doesn't look like we are planning on moving on from him any time soon lol

Good point. It's obvious his marketing appeal is a big plus for Terd...

That's big - especially with GS being the opponent - possibly invading Japan (so to speak) as the NBA Champions. Hopefully it's a great experience for Rui - and the applause will be off the charts - though I think Japanese sports fans are typically reserved.

[prime1time]

He hasn't gotten worse. His role has changed. This is what happens when you only focus on stats. We've basically eliminated easy points from his game. We use him as a spot up 3-point shooter. Unless it's a fast break the vast majority of his 2-point shots, he creates from scratch. That's why his 2 point fg% has dropped. We need to stop pushing this narrative that a player is worse at something because his percentages have gone down....

Sorry, prime, but this is nonsense.

Do you think Rui's gotten better at the 3, because his 3-point % has gone up on increased volume? I sure do, & I bet you do too.

In fact, that's what we mean by "better." Ditto if a player's FT% goes down. That's worse. That's what the words mean.

You can't have it both ways, sorry. You can't explain away what you don't like while pointing up what you do like. To know how good Rui is overall -- Rui or any other player! -- we have to look at all the things he does.

Rui's 2-point % has gone down, he gets to the line less often, his FT% has dropped a bit, & his rebounding has declined. Those facts are real too. & more rebounds = better. Fewer rebounds = worse. Period. But, b/c more steals = better, & fewer steals = worse, the fact that Rui's steals have gone UP also helps him be a BETTER player. Etc.

Overall, his scoring has improved. Overall, some other stuff has gotten better, some gotten worse, some is more or less unchanged. Overall, so far, Rui seems to have gotten a little better this season. Not a lot better, but even a little better is a good thing.

Which teams are better, prime? The ones that win more games, or the ones that win fewer games? Well, the ones that win more games have better stats -- & that's because stats & stats alone determine which team wins a game. Every game. No exceptions.

& the teams that have better stats, the better teams, have them because their players have them. That's all team stats are: player stats added up. Better players post better stats -- that's what we mean when we say they're "better."

Do coaches have an effect? Sure -- but their effect shows up in the players' stats. It has to; otherwise, it can't have an effect on the game.

Basketball isn't a gymnastics floor routine! We're not holding up signs that read "10" or some lower figure. Basketball leaves a bunch of results that add up to winning or losing. That's the basis of good & bad in basketball.

We are talking past each other. There's no disputing that Rui's fg% for 2's has decreased. The question however is why. Did he get less talented? Did his skill level decrease or is there another explanation? It's hard to understate just how important this "why" is in basketball. The ability to analyze players who could excel in one system while struggling in another system is an invaluable part of building a team. This answer to this question also amounts to how coaching is valuable. To be clear I'm not saying your analysis is wrong - in fact, it would be impossible for your analysis to be wrong, you are simply stating facts - rather, I am saying your analysis is incomplete. Where there should be a question, you are making a player assertion/judgment.

If you refuse to look at how a player is used on the court and ignore what their role is, you're basically missing half the story. For example, Rui's role on this team has changed every year since he's gotten here. The fg% from 2 incorporates such a vast array of shots - from dunks and layups to mid-range jumpers etc - that to really glean valuable information from it, you'd have to break it down further. What is Rui's shot selection this year? What was Rui's shot selection from previous years? Are there any major differences? Last year Rui played with Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was able to set him up with a lot of easy looks. How would that impact his FG % from 2? Rui no longer is the screen man in PnR. How would that impact his 2 points fg%? Now do any of these questions change the fact that his 2 point fg% is done? Of course not. But what it does give us is an insight into why it's down and helps us to better understand and predict what will happen in the future.

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

He hasn't gotten worse. His role has changed. This is what happens when you only focus on stats. We've basically eliminated easy points from his game. We use him as a spot up 3-point shooter. Unless it's a fast break the vast majority of his 2-point shots, he creates from scratch. That's why his 2 point fg% has dropped. We need to stop pushing this narrative that a player is worse at something because his percentages have gone down....

Sorry, prime, but this is nonsense.

Do you think Rui's gotten better at the 3, because his 3-point % has gone up on increased volume? I sure do, & I bet you do too.

In fact, that's what we mean by "better." Ditto if a player's FT% goes down. That's worse. That's what the words mean.

& it's equally true that Rui's 2-point % has gone down, he gets to the line less often, his FT% has dropped a bit, & his rebounding has declined. Those facts are real too. & more rebounds = better. Fewer rebounds = worse. Period.

You can't have it both ways, sorry. You can't explain away what you don't like while pointing up what you do like. To know how good Rui is overall -- Rui or any other player! -- we have to look at all the things he does.

So too, b/c more steals = better, & fewer steals = worse, the fact that Rui's steals have gone UP also helps him be a BETTER player.

Overall, so far, Rui seems to have gotten a little better this season. Not a lot better, but even a little better is a good thing.

Which teams are better, prime? The ones that win more games, or the ones that win fewer games? Well, the ones that win more games have better stats -- & that's because stats & stats alone determine which team wins a game. Every game. No exceptions.

& the teams that have better stats, the better teams, have them because their players have them. That's all team stats are: player stats added up.


Do coaches have an effect? Sure -- but their effect shows up in the players' stats. It has to; otherwise, it can't have an effect on the game.

It's not "nonsense". What's nonsense is you condescendingly dismissing prime1time's legitimate point.

Rui's role has changed because he is essentially playing a lot more SF this year. Offensively, he is clearly in the SF role, mostly camping out at the 3-point line. It has reduced his post touches and roll touches, which are opportunities to draw fouls, while increasing his 3-point attempts. That has improved his TS% considerably while detracting from his offensive rebounds.

On defense, his role is slightly different in that he guards SF's when alongside Kuzma, and the team switches a lot more regularly. That's probably impacting his defensive rebounds just a little bit. Hachimura is also playing alongside a bunch of better rebounders this year than he did in his rookie season. Avdija and Kuzma are better rebounders than Bertans and Troy Brown Jr respectively.

You are completely correct -- it was thoughtless of me to use a disparaging word.

Primetime, I beg your pardon -- I hope you will grant it.

The rest of what you say, nate, I would still dispute: if a guy is to be called "better" b/c his 3-pt. % has gone up, then it's fair to call him "worse" b/c his 2-point % has dropped or his FT% has dropped. You simply can't legitimately praise the improvements while explaining away the drops.

His defensive rebounding actually hasn't changed much. But, he is getting 61% fewer offensive boards than he did his rookie year.

All the same, largely b/c of his improved 3 pt. % & volume, his TS% is now above 60%.

Is that significant jump an improvement? The sign of an improved player? Yes.

If the jump, already quite sizable, were even larger would that constitute even greater improvement? Yes, obviously.

If his 2 point % & FT% hadn't dropped, would that jump, already sizable, be even larger? Yes, obviously.

Do all of these numbers count in determining his overall growth? Yes, obviously.

[DCZards]

Last year Rui played with Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was able to set him up with a lot of easy looks. How would that impact his FG % from 2? Rui no longer is the screen man in PnR. How would that impact his 2 points fg%? Now do any of these questions change the fact that his 2 point fg% is done? Of course not. But what it does give us is an insight into why it's down and helps us to better understand and predict what will happen in the future.

No Zard benefitted more from Westbrook's ability to pull down a rebound and make a full-court outlet pass to a teammate for a dunk or layup. That certainly helped Rui's 2pt. % last season.

[AFM]

I've never seen a PIF apology before. Can someone screenshot that, turn it into an NFT, and sell it to Spencer Dimwitty?

[payitforward]

Oh man... I think I've apologized on this Board dozens of times, AFM. For good reason too!

& it was kind of prime not to take umbrage -- I'm grateful.

[payitforward]

We are talking past each other....

True to some degree.

...There's no disputing that Rui's fg% for 2's has decreased. The question however is why. Did he get less talented? Did his skill level decrease or is there another explanation?...

These guys are not machines; their numbers go up & down some every year. But, you pose what seems like a somewhat false problem to me -- you wouldn't ask the same question about Rui's improved 3-point %. You wouldn't ask, "did he get more talented" (meaning of course something that's altogether unlikely). Nor would you look for "another explanation" beyond the fact that he put a whole lot of work into improving his 3-point shooting.

...I'm not saying your analysis is wrong - in fact, it would be impossible for your analysis to be wrong, you are simply stating facts - rather, I am saying your analysis is incomplete. Where there should be a question, you are making a player assertion/judgment....

All analysis is incomplete, to be sure. But all I "asserted" was that his 2pt. % had dropped some. & that his 3pt. % had risen. No analysis involved. & above all no "player judgment" involved either.

I said Rui had improved this year, meaning that overall he was posting better numbers than the previous year & than his rookie year. I assume you don't mean to disagree with me on that.

I have no judgment to make on Rui's "talent." & anyway, this league is full of players who are extremely effective, help their teams win a whole lot, but whom you wouldn't necessarily say are hugely talented. It's also full of players who do seem immensely talented but can't translate it into results on the court.

...The fg% from 2 incorporates such a vast array of shots - from dunks and layups to mid-range jumpers etc - that to really glean valuable information from it, you'd have to break it down further. What is Rui's shot selection this year? What was Rui's shot selection from previous years?...

That would be valuable, of course -- not just for Rui but for any player. The more granular the data the more useful the result.

...Last year Rui played with Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was able to set him up with a lot of easy looks. How would that impact his FG % from 2?...

Again, you write as if I made some judgment about Rui based on his 2 pt. %. What I said was that Rui had improved this, year & if his 2pt. % had remained what it was last year, his overall numbers would show even more improvement.

All the same, in some sense you are right, of course. Whatever happens, there has to be a reason -- who could disagree with that?

But, notice that you are not questioning whether an improved 3pt. % is "good" in the way you're questioning whether a drop in 2 pt. % is "bad." You're not asking for that jump to be explained, so that no "judgment" can be drawn from it. You haven't written that "Rui's shooting the 3 lights out on higher volume, but that doesn't mean he's improved."

In the end, however, I guess I don't really think the kind of analysis you propose really will, as you write...

...give us... insight ...and helps us to better understand and predict what will happen in the future.

What I think -- no, what I observe -- is that Rui hasn't been a good NBA player so far. But, he's improved this year overall -- so maybe he'll wind up a good NBA player.

IOW, there's some good news, & he's headed in the right direction. But he isn't there yet, & there's no guarantee he'll get there.

[prime1time]

We are talking past each other....

True to some degree.

...There's no disputing that Rui's fg% for 2's has decreased. The question however is why. Did he get less talented? Did his skill level decrease or is there another explanation?...

These guys are not machines; their numbers go up & down some every year. But, you pose what seems like a somewhat false problem to me -- you wouldn't ask the same question about Rui's improved 3-point %. You wouldn't ask, "did he get more talented" (meaning of course something that's altogether unlikely). Nor would you look for "another explanation" beyond the fact that he put a whole lot of work into improving his 3-point shooting.

...I'm not saying your analysis is wrong - in fact, it would be impossible for your analysis to be wrong, you are simply stating facts - rather, I am saying your analysis is incomplete. Where there should be a question, you are making a player assertion/judgment....

All analysis is incomplete, to be sure. But all I "asserted" was that his 2pt. % had dropped some. & that his 3pt. % had risen. No analysis involved. & above all no "player judgment" involved either.

I said Rui had improved this year, meaning that overall he was posting better numbers than the previous year & than his rookie year. I assume you don't mean to disagree with me on that.

I have no judgment to make on Rui's "talent." & anyway, this league is full of players who are extremely effective, help their teams win a whole lot, but whom you wouldn't necessarily say are hugely talented. It's also full of players who do seem immensely talented but can't translate it into results on the court.

...The fg% from 2 incorporates such a vast array of shots - from dunks and layups to mid-range jumpers etc - that to really glean valuable information from it, you'd have to break it down further. What is Rui's shot selection this year? What was Rui's shot selection from previous years?...

That would be valuable, of course -- not just for Rui but for any player. The more granular the data the more useful the result.

...Last year Rui played with Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was able to set him up with a lot of easy looks. How would that impact his FG % from 2?...

Again, you write as if I made some judgment about Rui based on his 2 pt. %. What I said was that Rui had improved this, year & if his 2pt. % had remained what it was last year, his overall numbers would show even more improvement.

All the same, in some sense you are right, of course. Whatever happens, there has to be a reason -- who could disagree with that?

But, notice that you are not questioning whether an improved 3pt. % is "good" in the way you're questioning whether a drop in 2 pt. % is "bad." You're not asking for that jump to be explained, so that no "judgment" can be drawn from it. You haven't written that "Rui's shooting the 3 lights out on higher volume, but that doesn't mean he's improved."

In the end, however, I guess I don't really think the kind of analysis you propose really will, as you write...

...give us... insight ...and helps us to better understand and predict what will happen in the future.

What I think -- no, what I observe -- is that Rui hasn't been a good NBA player so far. But, he's improved this year overall -- so maybe he'll wind up a good NBA player.

IOW, there's some good news, & he's headed in the right direction. But he isn't there yet, & there's no guarantee he'll get there.

I'm amazed at how you are able to find the motivation to write basically the same kind of post over and over again. Doesn't it get tiring? Regardless, you are wrong about how I would analyze Rui's 3-point shooting. I've already written multiple times that we need to give Rui the green light offensively, so we can fully understand how good of a 3-point shooter he is. Right now Rui's taking and making very easy 3's. Is he knocking them down? Yes, but going forward we would want to see more volume to determine just how good of a shooter Rui is. What I've said, however, is that Rui's 3-point shooting is alread good enough for what we need for him. All we really need from Rui is to space the floor for Beal and Porzingis. He's shown he can knock down open 3's.

Every stat needs context. Not some stats. Or good stats for players I like. Every stat. Because more than liking the player, I'm trying to discern the best way forward for the team. The same way you focus on rebounds and offensive possessions generated, and points created compared to the average player at said position, I analyze basketball this way. It's why I sit down and actually watch games. Regardless, I've stopped trying to convince you of anything a long time ago. On a fundamental level, we don't see the game of basketball the same way. There's merit in the way you see it, but your approach simply leaves too many stones left unturned for my liking.

[prime1time]

A great and salient write up on Rui that I came across...
https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtonwizards/comments/tettdi/a_look_at_ruis_postups_and_pick_rolls_in_the_5/

A look at Rui’s post-ups and pick & rolls in the 5 games post KP trade
This one is coming early because I wanted to get it back to a round number, also because it segments nicely to 5 games pre-KP trade and 5-games post-KP trade. As with my last post, per possession stuff is at the bottom.

3/6 vs Pacers
Post ups
Gets doubled, passes out swings around perimeter, KP misses 3 [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
None
3/9 vs Clippers
Came in with 3:24 left in Q1
Post ups
Draws a help defender from the corner when posting up, ball gets passed to Kispert and he hits the open corner 3 (Rui didn’t make the pass, just drew the defenders) [Q4]
Waved off, Ish ends up getting swatted at the rim [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
Deni finds him on the roll, Rui draws the foul (1/2) [Q1]
As ballhandler drives and makes right handed floater [Q3] (Gaff as screener)
3/11 vs Lakers
Comes in with 2:58 left in 1st
Comes in with 4:05 left in 3rd

Post ups
Posted up Westbrook spins past him, ball deflected out of bounds, Wizards ball, play resets [Q1]
Faces-up, drives past Westbrook, Westbrook fouls him (1/2) [Q2]
Faces-up against Westbrook, misses step back pull up 2 [Q3] (Lakers were sending help and I assume he felt rushed)
Poked out straight into Sato’s hands, Sato gets fouled, play resets [Q4]
Posts up but is ignored, Ish blows past his guy and hits the layup in the opened up paint [Q4]
Hits the lefty layup over monk [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
As ballhandler (KP as screener), drives, stops, spins, hits two point jumper [Q2]
Screens for ish, Ish travels [Q2]
Kuzma takes a difficult fadeaway and misses but Rui gets the putback [Q2] (Rui also got two consecutive stops on LeBron right after this)
Late in shot clock, Rui screens, Ish misses pull up mid range, loose ball foul on rebound, Gaff goes (1/2) [Q3]
As ballhandler (Kuzma screener) gets fouled by LeBron, play resets [Q4]
Kuzma takes it to the hole and draws the foul (1/2) [Q4] {Rui was taken out of the game after this play with about 4 minutes to go}

3/12 vs Trailblazers
Comes in at the start of the second
Comes out with 4:25 left in 2nd
Comes in with 3:54 left in 3rd
Comes out with 6:05 left in 4th
Post ups
Posts-up, drives past #19, gets fouled by the help defender while trying to dunk it (2/2) [Q2]
Spins, gets to the rim but can’t finish the righty layup through contact [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
Rui screens, Ish takes it to the basket and makes the layup [Q4]
3/14 vs Warriors
Comes in with 4:50 left in the 1st
Comes out with 5:09 left in 2nd
Comes in with 4:17 left in 3rd
Comes out with 4:47 left in 4th

Post ups
Posts up Curry, gets Doubled, passes it back out to Ish, Ish swings it to Deni, Deni makes open 3 [Q1]
Posts up Moody, spins past him, Moody fouls him before he can get a shot up [Q2]
Posts up Otto, Ish can’t get it to him, passes to KP (who is also posting up) KP draws the foul and goes 2/2 [Q4]
Seals off Otto, hits the easy right handed layup [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
Gafford screens, Rui’s drive is stopped by Draymond, play resets [Q1]
High P&R with Gafford, warriors switch and Rui passes it away
KP as screener, warriors switch, Rui makes a move on Bjelica, misses the pull up mid ranger [Q4]
Screens for ish, Ish hits the pull up 3 [Q4]
Per Possessions Stuff

Post ups (Last 5)
17 points 15 possessions (1.13 ppp)
5 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
0 non-offensive foul turnovers
Pick & Roll (Ballhandler) (Last 5)
4 points in 6 possessions (0.67 ppp)
1 foul drawn
0 offensive fouls
0 non-offensive foul turnovers

Pick & Roll (Screener) (Last 5)
10 points in 7 possessions (3 missed free throws lol) (1.43 ppp) {could have been 1.86}
3 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Total (Last 5)
31 points in 28 possessions (1.11 ppp)
8 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Post ups (Last 10)
34 points in 32 possessions (1.06 ppp)
9 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Pick & Roll (Ballhandler) (Last 10)
13 points in 10 possessions (1.30 ppp)
1 foul drawn
0 offensive fouls
0 non-offensive foul turnovers

Pick & Roll (Screener) (Last 10)
32 points in 20 possessions (1.60 ppp)
6 fouls drawn
3 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Total (Last 10)
76 points in 61 possessions (1.25 ppp)
15 fouls drawn
3 offensive fouls
2 non-offensive foul turnovers

[prime1time]

A great and salient write up on Rui that I came across...
https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtonwizards/comments/tettdi/a_look_at_ruis_postups_and_pick_rolls_in_the_5/

A look at Rui’s post-ups and pick & rolls in the 5 games post KP trade
This one is coming early because I wanted to get it back to a round number, also because it segments nicely to 5 games pre-KP trade and 5-games post-KP trade. As with my last post, per possession stuff is at the bottom.

3/6 vs Pacers
Post ups
Gets doubled, passes out swings around perimeter, KP misses 3 [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
None
3/9 vs Clippers
Came in with 3:24 left in Q1
Post ups
Draws a help defender from the corner when posting up, ball gets passed to Kispert and he hits the open corner 3 (Rui didn’t make the pass, just drew the defenders) [Q4]
Waved off, Ish ends up getting swatted at the rim [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
Deni finds him on the roll, Rui draws the foul (1/2) [Q1]
As ballhandler drives and makes right handed floater [Q3] (Gaff as screener)
3/11 vs Lakers
Comes in with 2:58 left in 1st
Comes in with 4:05 left in 3rd

Post ups
Posted up Westbrook spins past him, ball deflected out of bounds, Wizards ball, play resets [Q1]
Faces-up, drives past Westbrook, Westbrook fouls him (1/2) [Q2]
Faces-up against Westbrook, misses step back pull up 2 [Q3] (Lakers were sending help and I assume he felt rushed)
Poked out straight into Sato’s hands, Sato gets fouled, play resets [Q4]
Posts up but is ignored, Ish blows past his guy and hits the layup in the opened up paint [Q4]
Hits the lefty layup over monk [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
As ballhandler (KP as screener), drives, stops, spins, hits two point jumper [Q2]
Screens for ish, Ish travels [Q2]
Kuzma takes a difficult fadeaway and misses but Rui gets the putback [Q2] (Rui also got two consecutive stops on LeBron right after this)
Late in shot clock, Rui screens, Ish misses pull up mid range, loose ball foul on rebound, Gaff goes (1/2) [Q3]
As ballhandler (Kuzma screener) gets fouled by LeBron, play resets [Q4]
Kuzma takes it to the hole and draws the foul (1/2) [Q4] {Rui was taken out of the game after this play with about 4 minutes to go}

3/12 vs Trailblazers
Comes in at the start of the second
Comes out with 4:25 left in 2nd
Comes in with 3:54 left in 3rd
Comes out with 6:05 left in 4th
Post ups
Posts-up, drives past #19, gets fouled by the help defender while trying to dunk it (2/2) [Q2]
Spins, gets to the rim but can’t finish the righty layup through contact [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
Rui screens, Ish takes it to the basket and makes the layup [Q4]
3/14 vs Warriors
Comes in with 4:50 left in the 1st
Comes out with 5:09 left in 2nd
Comes in with 4:17 left in 3rd
Comes out with 4:47 left in 4th

Post ups
Posts up Curry, gets Doubled, passes it back out to Ish, Ish swings it to Deni, Deni makes open 3 [Q1]
Posts up Moody, spins past him, Moody fouls him before he can get a shot up [Q2]
Posts up Otto, Ish can’t get it to him, passes to KP (who is also posting up) KP draws the foul and goes 2/2 [Q4]
Seals off Otto, hits the easy right handed layup [Q4]

Pick and Rolls
Gafford screens, Rui’s drive is stopped by Draymond, play resets [Q1]
High P&R with Gafford, warriors switch and Rui passes it away
KP as screener, warriors switch, Rui makes a move on Bjelica, misses the pull up mid ranger [Q4]
Screens for ish, Ish hits the pull up 3 [Q4]
Per Possessions Stuff

Post ups (Last 5)
17 points 15 possessions (1.13 ppp)
5 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
0 non-offensive foul turnovers
Pick & Roll (Ballhandler) (Last 5)
4 points in 6 possessions (0.67 ppp)
1 foul drawn
0 offensive fouls
0 non-offensive foul turnovers

Pick & Roll (Screener) (Last 5)
10 points in 7 possessions (3 missed free throws lol) (1.43 ppp) {could have been 1.86}
3 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Total (Last 5)
31 points in 28 possessions (1.11 ppp)
8 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Post ups (Last 10)
34 points in 32 possessions (1.06 ppp)
9 fouls drawn
0 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Pick & Roll (Ballhandler) (Last 10)
13 points in 10 possessions (1.30 ppp)
1 foul drawn
0 offensive fouls
0 non-offensive foul turnovers

Pick & Roll (Screener) (Last 10)
32 points in 20 possessions (1.60 ppp)
6 fouls drawn
3 offensive fouls
1 non-offensive foul turnovers

Total (Last 10)
76 points in 61 possessions (1.25 ppp)
15 fouls drawn
3 offensive fouls
2 non-offensive foul turnovers

When looking at these numbers devoid of context, it's hard to understand just how efficient Rui has been when it comes to Pick and Rolls and Post-ups. Let's provide some context vs. This is Rui's bread and butter. He did it at Gonzaga and excelled. And when he was an average 3-point shooter, he used these kinds of plays to keep his 2 point percentage high. When we compare Rui's numbers to other stars, it's easy to get carried away so let's first preface these numbers. The Wizards only post-up Rui in certain situations. Specifically, when for one reason or another, a significantly smaller defender is on him. This is key because I am not advocating for Rui to post up any and all defenders. But what I have advocated from the first day we drafted Rui, is to utilize Rui's strength, size and skill to attack opposing defenses that switch smaller defenders onto him.

To understand just how efficient Rui is at posting up, in his last 10 games Rui is averaging 1.06 ppp via post-up. For the season Joel Embiid is averaging 1.07 ppp for post-up. SInce we got Porzingis this has moved up to 1.13 ppp. Granted these numbers are skewed due to pre-selection, but at the very least we should be posting him up more. Same goes for Hachimura as a screener. 1.6 ppp in his last 10 games. That's just absurd. As a ballhandler 1.3 ppp.

For anyone who's been watching games, this has already been obvious for a while, but Rui needs to get significantly more offensive possessions. When talking about Hachimura, even something as simple as pointing out his decreased fg% doesn't even do him justice. When Hachimura first came back he was out of shape and didn't even know the offense. Look at Hachimura's month-to-month progression.

In January when he first came back Rui had a true shooting percentage of 51.3% and an effective fg% of 47.7%. During the same time period, Rui was shooting 31.3% from 3. In February Rui had a true shooting % of 60.5% and an effective fg% of 58.2%. During the same time period, Rui was shooting 63.6% from 3. So far in March Rui has a true shooting % of 71% and an effective fg% of 69.5%. During the same time period he's shooting 58.3% from 3. m not saying Rui's a good player or that he's a bad player. I couldn't care less. What I am saying, however, is that it is coaching malpractice to not figure out ways to get this man the ball more if for no other reason than to find out what we have going into the offseason.

[prime1time]

And to take it a step further, what Rui has done since February isn't even that out of the ordinary. In the playoffs he shot 61.7% from the field and 60% from 3. Even before that, the last 10 games of last season when the Wizards made their push to win the play-in, he shot 52.8% from the field and 40% from 3. Coupled all together, the last 15 games of last season and the first 26 games of this season we have 41 game window to analyze or basically half a season (keep in mind that during the last 1.5 months Rui has been absolutely unreal). In this window Rui has been easily above 40% from 3 and right around 50% from the field (and this includes the month of January when he was just getting his legs underneath him). The next step is for Unsled Jr. to give Rui more opportunities so we can see just how good of an offensive player he actually is. I've said it from Day 1 and I'll say it again. A Hachimura that is knocking down 3's is simply too skilled and too strong to be guarded by average defenders. His combination of quickness, strength and skill even before his 3-point shooting made him a tough cover. Now that he's knocking down 3's, we are looking at an efficient 20 ppg scorer.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=ESPN
As much as we might want to knock Rui's b-ball iq, when it comes to scoring he gets the game very well. Look at the play at 24 seconds. Easy post-up on Seth Curry. Brooklyn will either have to double team, live with the basket or foul and send Hachimura to the free throw line. 34 seconds, another Rui post-up. This time against Cam Thomas. Aldridge slides over to help. Rui see's it, passes it to Gafford for an easy dunk. Kisperts man tried to help down on Gafford on this play, so if Rui wanted to, he could have actually waited a second and passed it to Kispert for an open 3. 54 seconds, hard close out by Mills because he knows Rui can shoot. Ends up being a drive for a layup. Even though he missed it and got the rebound, it's good offense. 1:06 dribble handoff with Kispert, just good offense. 1:20, easy PnR dunk again good offense. But 1:30 shows you Rui's versatility. One second he's diving, the next he's Pick and Popping from 3. The defender neds to get out there to contest because Rui can knock it down. Aldridge doesn't, so Rui makes him pay.

The biggest thing to understand about Rui's good play is that he's not doing anything extraordinary. He's not pounding the ball and making tough stepback 2's. He's not having some crazy finishes at the rim. He's not launching contested 3's. But rather, he's just playing good solid basketball. And this is why, even when he cools down and his percentages drop off, he'll still be a good player. I said it from day 1. He had the ability to an offensive juggernaut. Forecasting into the future. WIth Beal coming back, Porzingis' ability to spread the floor and Kuzma's all-around offensive game, the talent is there for the Wizards to be a solid team. If we can keep ego's in check and move the ball around to target mismatches, we will be very tough to stop offensively.

As for Rui, he's really just getting started. As we start to utilize more against mismatches, teams will key in on this and trap. So he needs to improve his passing. I'd love to see Rui improve his ball-handling, so he can initiate the offense. Rebounding and defense are also major areas where he needs to improve. Lastly, the more I look at our problematic PG play, the more I am inclined to bring back Wall. I think Wall's ability to set up both Rui and Porzingis would generate a lot of easy points that we currently don't get.

[payitforward]

...Every stat needs context. Not some stats. Or good stats for players I like. Every stat. Because more than liking the player, I'm trying to discern the best way forward for the team. The same way you focus on rebounds and offensive possessions generated, and points created compared to the average player at said position, I analyze basketball this way. It's why I sit down and actually watch games. Regardless, I've stopped trying to convince you of anything a long time ago. On a fundamental level, we don't see the game of basketball the same way. There's merit in the way you see it, but your approach simply leaves too many stones left unturned for my liking.

This is a perfectly fair & sensible way to engage with what I've written.
Above all, thanks for not being the bozo I was when I described something you wrote as "nonsense."

I watch games too, although I often miss the West Coast games, b/c they're on too late. Seems likely that I've attended more NBA games than you, as I'd be willing to bet I'm a lot older than you! Plus, I shared a Wizards' season's ticket for a couple of years (not practical these days, as I live on the Delaware coast). I also went to a lot of Warriors games in the almost 20 years I lived in SF.

I think I'll tell you the story of how I tried to become the General Manager of the Warriors. This was in the mid-1970s (told you I was older than you...). At the time, I was spending some of my time writing foundation grant applications for arts groups in SF. I would usually help them present to foundations as well, which meant that I got to know people in that world. One of the organizations I presented to fairly often was the Haas Foundation (the Haas family started Levi Strauss & still owned it at the time -- maybe they still do). It was run by a young guy, Wally Haas. A very nice fellow, & I pitched him often enough that we became pretty friendly.

Meanwhile, already an avid NBA fan, I was frustrated by the way Al Attles was, to my mind, mis-managing the Warriors. One day, in a snit, I couldn't take it any more. But then... I had a brilliant idea! So I called the Haas Foundation & got Wally on the line.

The conversation went more or less as follows:

Wally: Hi, PIF (he used my real first name, obviously...) -- what's up?

Me: Hi Wally, I'm calling to ask you for a favor.

Wally: Sure, what can I do for you?

Me: I'd like you to introduce me to Franklin Mieuli (then the owner of the Warriors).

Wally: Huh... why do you want to meet him?

Me: The Warriors are a mess, & I want to be their next General Manager!

Silence... a little more silence... then, an unsuccessfully stifled enormous guffaw, and...

Wally: No, PIF, I'm not going to introduce you to Franklin Mieuli. Have a nice day....

Click.

[doclinkin]

...The fg% from 2 incorporates such a vast array of shots - from dunks and layups to mid-range jumpers etc - that to really glean valuable information from it, you'd have to break it down further. What is Rui's shot selection this year? What was Rui's shot selection from previous years?...

That would be valuable, of course -- not just for Rui but for any player. The more granular the data the more useful the result.

Granularity:
Last year 29% of Rui's shots were Catch and Shoot Jumpers. 44% of his shots were inside 10 ft.

This year 38% of his shots are Catch and Shoot. Only 30% of his shots are inside 10 ft.

Seems like that would tend to make a difference in the raw FG% and 2FG%, no doubt. Context supporting prime's assertion that his changed role alters his numbers.

Still. I don't think that force feeding him possessions would see him maintain his high percentages. The rest of the numbers on the data linked above shows that the longer he holds the ball, the more he dribbles, the more significant the drop in his efficiency. Seems to me can't make his own offense yet. The way I read it: if Wes is able to develop plays that feature him as a finisher, he will be a useful weapon. Or if we had heads-up play from teammates who got him the ball where he is comfortable. I don't see him moving off the ball all that much or making cuts etc. If Kispert could tutor him on how and when to make a hard cut and crash the interior, he'd be a danger. Or you know, if we had a point guard that drew attention then set him up.

[9 and 20]

Rui had a tough shooting night from 3. He's not going to shoot 50% from 3 forever. As that number comes down, he'll need to do other stuff to stay on the court. Whether it's shoot better from closer in, rebound more, pass more, defend better, whatever.

He's far from a bust for a #9 pick, which is great. But he needs to do more to establish himself as a starter.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Rui had a tough shooting night from 3. He's not going to shoot 50% from 3 forever. As that number comes down, he'll need to do other stuff to stay on the court. Whether it's shoot better from closer in, rebound more, pass more, defend better, whatever.

He's far from a bust for a #9 pick, which is great. But he needs to do more to establish himself as a starter.

Despite the bad shooting, I'm fine with him taking threes like he did last night and not thinking of it anymore than a bad shooting night. He shot them with confidence and none of them were particularly bad if memory serves me. If we want him to be a a confident shooter, we can't approach it as if he's doing something wrong if he's missing and needs to do other things to make up for. That's not to say that he shouldn't be doing more, just that it shouldn't be a reflection of him not shooting 50% from three.