Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 3

[Beenie]

There are people who believe this guy knows anything about basketball

Head clown of Heat Twitter

Conspicuously leaves Herro's name off.

Herro could probably thrive offensively in any system.

Can't say the same about Bam.

[goodboys lats]

I feel like 7-4 will wrap up the 1 seed. We have the tiebreaker over the Bucks due to conference record so they would need to go 11-1 to beat us going 7-4. If they can beat the 76ers on Monday that will pretty much take care of them as well. Really hope Jimmy is good to go.

[oreon]

Its interesting but worrisome that the Heat are still experimenting with different lineups this late in the season. How many games is enough to have the core players play with each other before the playoffs?

I think for the most part the rotations is figured out. The usual starting 5. Herro, Max, Caleb from the bench. I think the unresolved part is the back up big position. Spo is clearly experimenting with Keef at the 5 to generate more offense vs playing Dedmon. Unfortunately Yurt will see limited min in post season.
And the other unresolved issue is Vic vs Gabe minutes. Spo needs to figure out how much Vic can contribute. Personally I'd play Gabe his minutes. Vic won't get to whatever his new best is till next season. And the Gabe minutes were working. I'd stick with Gabe for the playoffs.

[goodboys lats]

Its interesting but worrisome that the Heat are still experimenting with different lineups this late in the season. How many games is enough to have the core players play with each other before the playoffs?

I think for the most part the rotations is figured out. The usual starting 5. Herro, Max, Caleb from the bench. I think the unresolved part is the back up big position. Spo is clearly experimenting with Keef at the 5 to generate more offense vs playing Dedmon. Unfortunately Yurt will see limited min in post season.
And the other unresolved issue is Vic vs Gabe minutes. Spo needs to figure out how much Vic can contribute. Personally I'd play Gabe his minutes. Vic won't get to whatever his new best is till next season. And the Gabe minutes were working. I'd stick with Gabe for the playoffs.

I'd give Gabe a short leash though, he's been a negative lately. We miss Goran IMO

[twix2500]

Its interesting but worrisome that the Heat are still experimenting with different lineups this late in the season. How many games is enough to have the core players play with each other before the playoffs?

I think for the most part the rotations is figured out. The usual starting 5. Herro, Max, Caleb from the bench. I think the unresolved part is the back up big position. Spo is clearly experimenting with Keef at the 5 to generate more offense vs playing Dedmon. Unfortunately Yurt will see limited min in post season.
And the other unresolved issue is Vic vs Gabe minutes. Spo needs to figure out how much Vic can contribute. Personally I'd play Gabe his minutes. Vic won't get to whatever his new best is till next season. And the Gabe minutes were working. I'd stick with Gabe for the playoffs.

We experimented a lot in the 2019-2020 season as well. In fact, Spo even went as far as changing the starting lineup the very first game of the postseason that year (inserting in Dragic; removing Nunn).

I don't think the changes are ideal either, but Spo's philosophy is built around adaptability and the players understand that, which is why I'm not too worried.

I'm not worried about what Spo wants to run. I'm worried about the players getting use to playing together in the common sets. Players need trial and era to perfect how they want to play off each other. You still see crucial times where certain players do not touch the ball and others getting too many touches. Or standing around because they not sure how to move off the guy with ball. Much of that is due to constant rotation changes mainly because missing players. Their needs to be some consistency for players figure things out. Otherwise it has to happen in the playoffs. This might not be the type playoffs to go through a learning process because the level of competition even being at the 1 seed.

Inserting Dragic as a starter wasn't something foreign. He had plenty of mins with the common sets. He was finishing games anyways, it was just starting that changed. Dragic was needed because Butler needed a costar with him in the starting lineup. Bam wasn't a player at all that you could go too at that time.

Bam is now at least a player you can drop down to and he can get you points. Not at the level of Dragic was or the level we still want him to be, but he still now at some level will. Much of Bam issue is the 4th quarter where his teammates and himself look away from him.

The last time I seen the common sets play cohesively was the start of the season coming out of the training camp and preseason.

[carnageta]

I think Bam's peak is 23ppg, 11rpg. Likely happens at the age of 28, after Butler is off of the books.

Before ya'll heckle me for throwing out such a 'low' number, take the time to acknowledge that there's a big difference between 23 ppg and 19ppg. Bam's greatest month of his career was this past February, and as dominant as he was he finished the month averaging only 22ppg. Averaging 23ppg over the course of an entire season is extremely difficult for players who are not born scorers. Butler has only done it once in his entire career.

[twix2500]

I think Bam's peak is 23ppg, 11rpg. Likely happens at the age of 28, after Butler is off of the books.

Before ya'll heckle me for throwing out such a 'low' number, take the time to acknowledge that there's a big difference between 23 ppg and 19ppg. Bam's greatest month of his career was this past February, and as dominant as he was he finished the month averaging only 22ppg. Averaging 23ppg over the course of an entire season is extremely difficult for players who are not born scorers. Butler has only done it once in his entire career.

Not a low number at all. Thats HOF numbers. The Heat do not play at a high pace so those numbers are big time.

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[Kobewade11]

I think Bam's peak is 23ppg, 11rpg. Likely happens at the age of 28, after Butler is off of the books.

Before ya'll heckle me for throwing out such a 'low' number, take the time to acknowledge that there's a big difference between 23 ppg and 19ppg. Bam's greatest month of his career was this past February, and as dominant as he was he finished the month averaging only 22ppg. Averaging 23ppg over the course of an entire season is extremely difficult for players who are not born scorers. Butler has only done it once in his entire career.

Yea I dont think its a low number considering he’s too chicken to shoot 3s. Giannis is a career 29% shooter from 3 and even he averages three attempts a game. Its mind boggling to me to watch a player handicap themselves in the fashion he does, but if Spo and the local media wont call him out on it then who am I

[dolphinatik]

Heat Officially Clinched South East Division

y --MIA Miami Heat(1)
ATL Atlanta Hawks(9)
CHA Charlotte Hornets (10)
WSH Washington Wizards
e --ORL Orlando Magic

[3ballbomber]

Anyone thinking Herro is a byproduct of the system must be blind. He is the system.

[SA37]

I feel like 7-4 will wrap up the 1 seed. We have the tiebreaker over the Bucks due to conference record so they would need to go 11-1 to beat us going 7-4. If they can beat the 76ers on Monday that will pretty much take care of them as well. Really hope Jimmy is good to go.

And the prize for that may be a 1st round date with Brooklyn

[BenoUdrihFTL]

After the OKC game Herro finally reached league average TS% with a TS+ of 100. I posted a few weeks ago how Herro's efficiency has been solid this season outside a stretch in Dec/Jan when the team was ravaged by covid/injuries and he was basically playing a mid-2000s Kobe role having to carry the entire offense with very little support. Herro's TS% by month:

Oct: 57.0%
Nov: 55.8%
Dec: 51.7%
Jan: 49.2%
Feb: 63.0%
Mar: 66.1%

Season average: 56.1%
League average: 56.3%

There's no easy way to find it on Basketball Reference so I had to calculate it myself using their TS% formula, but here's Herro's scoring and efficiency if you exclude that rough stretch:

Outside of Dec and Jan, Herro is scoring 22.7 ppg on 60.2% TS (107 TS+) for the season

If you only just exclude Jan, Herro is scoring 21.6 ppg on 58.1% TS (103 TS+) for the season

So as long as he isn't being asked to single-handedly carry the offense, Herro has made the leap this season to becoming an efficient volume scorer. He's right up there with Butler (21.1 ppg on 58.0% TS) as our lead scorer despite the system not being built around him. I expect and understand why Spo will likely continue to bring him off the bench in the playoffs, but I really hope Spo has a quick trigger finger in terms of inserting Herro minutes into the 1st and 3rd quarters if our offense gets off to a turding start. Like the leash for Duncan should be extremely short at this point

[DayofMourning]

I feel like 7-4 will wrap up the 1 seed. We have the tiebreaker over the Bucks due to conference record so they would need to go 11-1 to beat us going 7-4. If they can beat the 76ers on Monday that will pretty much take care of them as well. Really hope Jimmy is good to go.

And the prize for that may be a 1st round date with Brooklyn

That doesn't worry me too much with this group.

They're going to score. Hopefully we can keep them a bit below their averages with our top five defense.

We should be able to score on them consistently, and if we play the right lineups, we should be able to dominate them on the boards. If we can rebound and push, that's a big advantage for us. Aggro Bam could feast.

[SA37]

I feel like 7-4 will wrap up the 1 seed. We have the tiebreaker over the Bucks due to conference record so they would need to go 11-1 to beat us going 7-4. If they can beat the 76ers on Monday that will pretty much take care of them as well. Really hope Jimmy is good to go.

And the prize for that may be a 1st round date with Brooklyn

That doesn't worry me too much with this group.

They're going to score. Hopefully we can keep them a bit below their averages with our top five defense.

We should be able to score on them consistently, and if we play the right lineups, we should be able to dominate them on the boards. If we can rebound and push, that's a big advantage for us. Aggro Bam could feast.

I'm not overly interested in getting into a shootout against Durant and Irving. Miami is unlikely to come out a winner in that scenario.

I agree Bam would have a huge opportunity to make his mark in the series, and it is the one area where Miami would really have a notable advantage. Can Bam be aggressive enough to be decisive? I think that is a big questions mark. It's not an issue of talent, but of disposition.

If NY still won't let Irving play home games, that would potentially exclude him from up to 3 games, but he'd be available for a Game 7. Having Oladipo to help chase him around and make his life difficult would be huge for Miami.

[Flash4thewin]

And the prize for that may be a 1st round date with Brooklyn

That doesn't worry me too much with this group.

They're going to score. Hopefully we can keep them a bit below their averages with our top five defense.

We should be able to score on them consistently, and if we play the right lineups, we should be able to dominate them on the boards. If we can rebound and push, that's a big advantage for us. Aggro Bam could feast.

I'm not overly interested in getting into a shootout against Durant and Irving. Miami is unlikely to come out a winner in that scenario.

I agree Bam would have a huge opportunity to make his mark in the series, and it is the one area where Miami would really have a notable advantage. Can Bam be aggressive enough to be decisive? I think that is a big questions mark. It's not an issue of talent, but of disposition.

If NY still won't let Irving play home games, that would potentially exclude him from up to 3 games, but he'd be available for a Game 7. Having Oladipo to help chase him around and make his life difficult would be huge for Miami.

Assuming that happens, it would be another first round and out season for us. Thats after spending what was it over 200 mil in the offseason? Changes would need to be made for sure just not sure but who gets fired or "retires"? Especially if as a one seed we cant make it out of the first round.

[Kobewade11]

Assuming that happens, it would be another first round and out season for us. Thats after spending what was it over 200 mil in the offseason? Changes would need to be made for sure just not sure but who gets fired or "retires"? Especially if as a one seed we cant make it out of the first round.

Well they didnt spend 200 mil in the offseason with the thought they’d be playing Brooklyn in the first round as 1/8 matchup. Fwiw I think Brooklyn ends up as the 7 seed, but perspective matters. Their second best player wasn’t allowed to play most of the year and their best player also missed considerable time. That isn’t a real 7th or 8th seed team.

[twix2500]

Assuming that happens, it would be another first round and out season for us. Thats after spending what was it over 200 mil in the offseason? Changes would need to be made for sure just not sure but who gets fired or "retires"? Especially if as a one seed we cant make it out of the first round.

Well they didnt spend 200 mil in the offseason with the thought they’d be playing Brooklyn in the first round as 1/8 matchup. Fwiw I think Brooklyn ends up as the 7 seed, but perspective matters. Their second best player wasn’t allowed to play most of the year and their best player also missed considerable time. That isn’t a real 7th or 8th seed team.

The past two years the Heat lost to the NBA champs.

[somerandomdude]

My thoughts:

* Largely due to supporting cast BUT
* Bam better on offense
* Herro better on defense

Read on Twitter

[DayofMourning]

My thoughts:

* Largely due to supporting cast BUT
* Bam better on offense
* Herro better on defense

Read on Twitter

Both them boys growing up.

Keep on molding Yurt and Strus to join them as we ascend.

[DayofMourning]

My thoughts:

* Largely due to supporting cast BUT
* Bam better on offense
* Herro better on defense

Read on Twitter

Both them boys growing up.

Keep on molding Yurt and Strus to join them as we ascend.