players whose playoffs struggles are overstated or understated?

[falcolombardi]

there is always a lot of discussion about "resiliency" or players who are "play-off proven"

are there guys who have the opposite reputation undeservedly?

for example someone who has legitimate struggles in some área (lets say, he loses efficiency significatively) but those overshadow the rest of his game

or someone who has some very high profile "chokes" or bad series that give him a overstated bad rep as a play-off performer

on the other hand are there guys who you think have better playoffs reputation thst they merit?

maybe someone who is notorious for famous clutch shots or some high profile series but the rest of the time is mot as good as people perceive him ?

[Jaivl]

The Damien Lillard thread.

[70sFan]

Wilt's struggles are overstated once you realize that he faced by far the toughest defensive competition in playoffs history. Sure, he didn't average 40 ppg in his postseason prime, but more times than not he played very well in postseason. I think 1969 hurt him more than 2011 hurt LeBron in these discussions.

[Joao Saraiva]

Larry Bird's struggles are understated for sure.

Among casuals there is a perception of him coming up big in the big stages, that he is super clutch, etc. But reviewing his career it is pretty clear he had some supbar series and losses were he underperformed... and nobody seems to really bring it up when discussing him.

[parsnips33]

Steph's reputation still hasn't recovered from game 2 of the 2015 finals

[No-more-rings]

The Damien Lillard thread.

How do you feel about his performances? It seems like he's had some amazing 1st round series, but can never seem to sustain that over a multi series stretch for whatever reason.

[Prokorov]

Derozan can do himself some help by showing out this year.

Curry suffers from being the favorite and going to the finals constantly... when that happens fans will ignore the prior 3 rounds no matter how great you were. And his Finals performances are too narrative driven to really give proper credit...

Finals 1: very good. but lebron was better. they gave FMVP to iggy for getting abused by lebron. Curry not enough credit for this

Finals 2: poor showing, outplayed by Kyrie, and losing a series they were up 3-1. ouch.

Finals 3: He was great but KD was better and KD got the shine

Finals 4: He was very good but KD was better and KD got the shine and it was a sweep so less hype

Finals 5: played great, some huge games... but they lost, KD was hurt, Klay was hurt so no one paid attention

Curry also lacks that defining playoff moment. His first win was the only one where he was the undisputed man without KD and lebron stole the show. There is no shot like Kyrie game 7 on currys reel. and i think that hurts him too. there is no like, 45 point game 6 perfromance to force the series to go 7. that hurts him.

[1993Playoffs]

Chris Paul is obviously overstated. Of course he’s had bad moments like most players. But he usually gets better in the post season

[Colbinii]

Derozan can do himself some help by showing out this year.

Curry suffers from being the favorite and going to the finals constantly... when that happens fans will ignore the prior 3 rounds no matter how great you were. And his Finals performances are too narrative driven to really give proper credit...

Finals 1: very good. but lebron was better. they gave FMVP to iggy for getting abused by lebron. Curry not enough credit for this

Finals 2: poor showing, outplayed by Kyrie, and losing a series they were up 3-1. ouch.

Finals 3: He was great but KD was better and KD got the shine

Finals 4: He was very good but KD was better and KD got the shine and it was a sweep so less hype

Finals 5: played great, some huge games... but they lost, KD was hurt, Klay was hurt so no one paid attention

Curry also lacks that defining playoff moment. His first win was the only one where he was the undisputed man without KD and lebron stole the show. There is no shot like Kyrie game 7 on currys reel. and i think that hurts him too. there is no like, 45 point game 6 perfromance to force the series to go 7. that hurts him.

Down 3-1 in 2016 WCF and then having 3 superb games is definitely a defining moment, especially when his game 7 was 38-5-8 on superb efficiency.

[sp6r=underrated]

I don't think he belongs on the list of playoff strugglers but Barkley's defensive goofs on the Paxton and Stockton shots are appalling.

What was he doing?

[img]

Watch on YouTube

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[img]

Watch on YouTube

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[penbeast0]

I don't think he belongs on the list of playoff strugglers but Barkley's defensive goofs on the Paxton and Stockton shots are appalling.
...

Is this any different than his regular season defense?

[NbaAllDay]

Derozan can do himself some help by showing out this year.

Curry suffers from being the favorite and going to the finals constantly... when that happens fans will ignore the prior 3 rounds no matter how great you were. And his Finals performances are too narrative driven to really give proper credit...

Finals 1: very good. but lebron was better. they gave FMVP to iggy for getting abused by lebron. Curry not enough credit for this

Finals 2: poor showing, outplayed by Kyrie, and losing a series they were up 3-1. ouch.

Finals 3: He was great but KD was better and KD got the shine

Finals 4: He was very good but KD was better and KD got the shine and it was a sweep so less hype

Finals 5: played great, some huge games... but they lost, KD was hurt, Klay was hurt so no one paid attention

Curry also lacks that defining playoff moment. His first win was the only one where he was the undisputed man without KD and lebron stole the show. There is no shot like Kyrie game 7 on currys reel. and i think that hurts him too. there is no like, 45 point game 6 perfromance to force the series to go 7. that hurts him.

Down 3-1 in 2016 WCF and then having 3 superb games is definitely a defining moment, especially when his game 7 was 38-5-8 on superb efficiency.

Problem with this is that The 2016 WCF performances will get mostly ignored due to what happened in the Finals.

Its also Klays performance that stands out more in that series and that will overshadow him as well.

[coastalmarker99]

Chris Paul is obviously overstated. Of course he’s had bad moments like most players. But he usually gets better in the post season

Chris Paul in 2008 was up 2-0 vs a worse SAS team and after that proceeded to lose 4-1 and in the last 3 games averaged 20-12 on 43/25/63 splits or a 48 TS (-6)

but this was the first of his many disappointing failures

Chris Paul vs the Denver nuggets in 09 had one of the worst series I’ve ever seen for an all-time player in his prime.

He somehow got outplayed by Playoff Melo and Billups as well.

He averaged 17/10 on 50 TS (-4%).

During that season he averaged 23/11 on 60 TS (+6) a -10 drop off

In the last two games of that Denver series, Chris Paul averaged 8-8-4 on 30-25-33 splits.

In one of the biggest blowouts ever a game in which his team went down by 58 points!

Chris Paul had 4-6 and had more turnovers than he did points (6) and had a TS of 28.6 (-25%) and was a -58

In 2011 vs LA he was very good.. until the game 7 when they needed him most.

As Prior to the game 7 Chris Paul averaged 24.4/11.6/6.4 on 56/47/79 splits (68 TS, +14)

just to have a measly 10/11 (53 TS) in a blowout loss.

Cp3 vs the SAS in 2012 got swept and averaged 9.3-8.7-3.3 on 35 TS (-18) in the first 3 games which were all blowouts, right after he did 20/9/4 that RS on 58 TS (+6).

In the final game, he was amazing and they only lost by 3, but what if he played like that the whole series??

Chris Paul vs the grizzlies in 2013 would blow another 2-0 lead and actually got swept after going up 2-0.

But he was statistically good this series as he averaged 23-6 on 53/31/89 splits (63 TS, +10%).

But if he’s this great playoff performer why can’t he hold series leads?

Then there’s 2014 where after one of his best PS performances ever in G1 vs the thunder.

He averaged 21-12 on 45/29/75 splits or a 53 TS (-1 rTS) and lost the next 4/5 games.

And we all know about the infamous game 5 with a chance to go up 3-2 he had two turnovers in the final 17 seconds up 4.

And had 17/5/5 (TOs) shot 6/16 for the field for a 46.7 TS (-8) in 40 mins of gameplay.

Then there’s the classic 3-1 blown lead when after he came back his team lost 3/5 and he was outplayed by Corey Brewer and Josh smith.

The team was up by 19 with 2:16 left to go in the third and were down 119-104 (34 point swing) before Cp3 hit a garbage time 3 to save his stats.

In the G7 he was massively outplayed by perennial choker James Harden who had 31/8/7 on 55 TS (+2) with no all-star or all NBA player alongside him while Cp3 had all-stars Blake and DJ and he only had 26/10 on +2 efficiency.

Then In 2016 Chris paul would go up 2-0 again vs the blazers and proceeded to lose this series.

And while he was hurt. His team had already lost two straight games while he played healthy and history shows that he was bound to lose this series given he was up 2-0.

In 2017 Cp3 had one of his best series ever (27-10-5 on 63 TS, +7 efficiency), but proceeded to blow a 2-1 lead (lost 3/4 after Gobert came back) and in the game 7 had a measly 13 points and 9 assists on 6/19 shooting for 33 TS (-23).

These blown leads are starting to rack up..

In 2018 Chris paul had a pretty good but not great playoff run next to James Harden. Some up and downs but pretty consistent for what it’s worth!

But his injuries did creep up on him again when he went up 3-2. Not his fault at all and should receive no blame but only glory!

2019 is where it gets really iffy!! In 2019 vs the warriors Chris paul had looked like a role player as in the first 5 games he wasn’t even a top 2 scorer on his own team.

Nor was he a top 5 player on the court (KD Harden Curry Gordon and Dray> CP3)

In a pivotal game 5

With a chance to go up, 3-2 this series Chris paul had an amazing 11/6/6 on 3/14 shooting (33 TS, -24%) in 38 mins!

And in a fourth-quarter where KD didn’t play he was outscored by Harden, Gordon, Capela, Shumpert, Curry, and Dray and scored 0 FGs!

In the 4th of game 6 with no KD and up 7 with 11 minutes left, Cp3 would have 4 points for the rest of the game and was outscored by 14 points in those 11 mins.

As he was heavily outplayed by perennial choker James Harden who had 12 points in those mins.

And as for 2020, not only was he outplayed by perennial choker James Harden H2H for an entire series.

But after 8:22 left in the 4th of G7 he would get outscored by the worst game 7 performer ever and lose the game because he passed the ball to Lugentz Dort instead of shooting it.


And then in 2021 he once again blew another 2-0 series lead this time in the finals while playing god awful in game 4.

[coastalmarker99]

CP3 very might be the greatest choker of alltime.


Chris Paul is the only player in NBA history to blow 4 2-0 leads in the playoffs.

his game 4 performance against the Bucks sealed the narrative about him being a choker as when the pressure is on he shinks.

As he only put up 10/4/7 on 5/13 shooting with 5 turnovers and it should be noted that he only had 8 points until he took the open layup at the end of the game to shamelessly pad his stats as usual.


This is why it always blows my mind when people say Chris Paul is better than Isiah Thomas.

I don't care about PER or other advanced metrics.

One was a killer who took down Bird's Celtics, Magic's Lakers and MJ's Bulls as "the man" and always brought it mentally and never took a step back against anyone (check 40 stitches via Karl Malone)

And the other shrinks when it matters most.

[Statlanta]

Derozan can do himself some help by showing out this year.

Curry suffers from being the favorite and going to the finals constantly... when that happens fans will ignore the prior 3 rounds no matter how great you were. And his Finals performances are too narrative driven to really give proper credit...

Finals 1: very good. but lebron was better. they gave FMVP to iggy for getting abused by lebron. Curry not enough credit for this

Finals 2: poor showing, outplayed by Kyrie, and losing a series they were up 3-1. ouch.

Finals 3: He was great but KD was better and KD got the shine

Finals 4: He was very good but KD was better and KD got the shine and it was a sweep so less hype

Finals 5: played great, some huge games... but they lost, KD was hurt, Klay was hurt so no one paid attention

Curry also lacks that defining playoff moment. His first win was the only one where he was the undisputed man without KD and lebron stole the show. There is no shot like Kyrie game 7 on currys reel. and i think that hurts him too. there is no like, 45 point game 6 perfromance to force the series to go 7. that hurts him.

Down 3-1 in 2016 WCF and then having 3 superb games is definitely a defining moment, especially when his game 7 was 38-5-8 on superb efficiency.

The casual fan doesn’t remember that game and it probably won’t be played in a Curry highlight reel. They remember when Klay shot 11 3’s in Game 6. Steph doesn’t have supernova Playoff Games and even when he does teams are either injured or hilariously outmatched on paper. That’s why there’s no signature moment.

The closest moments to a positive moment like shooting over the Pelicans in 2015, the shot clock beater over Love in 2018 pale in comparison to his negative moments like the meme of him throwing the ball away in 2016 or getting defended by Kevin Love in 2016.

[Jaivl]

...

^ Hey, I take except with this post! Harden is not at all a perennial choker.

[eminence]

It's an odd one, but to me the definitive Steph/Dray playoff series is the sweep of the Blazers in the '19 WCF.

[Bad Gatorade]

Is it anathema around these parts to claim that most playoff struggles are overstated?

I do believe that players get better/worse in the playoffs, but I believe that the magnitude of difference between the two seasons is more pronounced for players that improve.

I do think that players can get worse, but an MVP level regular season guy is still going to be a dangerous player in the playoffs, even if he's not quite as good.

I think it doesn't help that a lot of analysis of a player's playoff capability is often somewhat myopic - for example, they might look at a drop in TS% and conclude the player is a choker whilst ignoring changes in other statistics. For example, Karl Malone's TS% dropped quite a lot in the postseason, but his usage and assist rates improved, with his turnovers decreasing. Kyle Lowry's box score stats dropped quite a bit in Toronto, but his plus minus numbers were staggering, and improved worlds upon his regular season numbers.

Sometimes, the scenario a player is in can have a notable impact. A player such as Kobe looked amazing in 2001 and 2008-10, where he had strong offensive help, but the most heliocentric version of Kobe in 2006 looked far more pedestrian against the Suns, a team not necessarily regarded as a defensive powerhouse. KD looked far more impressive and efficient once he decided to jump ship to the Warriors.

Sometimes, a player can have incredibly hard competition, and it's no surprise that in the rough-and-tumble west, guys like Kevin Garnett/Dirk Nowitzki had far more "choker" discussion in the 2000s compared to players such as Jason Kidd, who made the finals twice failing to play a team with over 50 wins. It's quite possible that both teams playing are just really, really good basketball teams, and everybody is playing well. And sometimes, when a player does play slightly worse than usual against a really good team, it looks like they had a horror series, but it's really just natural variation taking place.

Sometimes, we highlight certain games in a series and forge a narrative off that. One of the posters in this thread alluded to Chris Paul having a poor game 6** against the far superior Lakers (after being the clear best player across games 1-5) and poor game 7 vs the Jazz (after an incredible series) as a means of diminishing his overall performance. Michael Jordan averaged 23.7 points in the last 3 games vs the Sonics with a TS% of 48.5. Kobe won a game 7 shooting 6/24 (look! a high stakes performance!). The games leading to a game 7 matter a lot too.

Sometimes, a player's team might lose even though those minutes weren't lost with that player on the court.

Sometimes, we forget that even if a great player seems to play worse in the playoffs, they're still a great player, and defences are still going to make that player a primary part of their game plan and use their best resources in order to inhibit their production.

Sometimes, we base all of this on an unfortunate scarcity of data. Remember when Nowitzki went from a choker to being incredibly clutch? Remember when Paul George went from being a terrific playoff performer in Indiana to the suddenly underwhelming 'Playoff P?'

There are so many variables, and it's so easy to just pick one or two to spin a playoff narrative, whereas the holistic view probably curbs a lot of the severity of these playoff drops, IMO. In a single postseason? Sure - I believe it. Across a player's larger postseason portfolio? I feel like a player's general postseason drop isn't going to be as large as many think.

On the other hand, yeah, I do think that there are definitely players (post 2013 LeBron, Rondo, Kawhi for example) that play clearly better in the postseason, and I find this far more believable since these guys often flat out coast in the regular season, and then bring their A game in the postseason. From what I've seen, most metrics tend to correlate with this greater viewpoint too.

[falcolombardi]

I don't think he belongs on the list of playoff strugglers but Barkley's defensive goofs on the Paxton and Stockton shots are appalling.

What was he doing?

[img]

Watch on YouTube

[/img]

[img]

Watch on YouTube

[/img]

talking about stockton, his playoff dropoff is not talked about much

Karl malone gets all the heat although at least he has the excuse of incresing his offensive load in the playoffs or as bad Gatorade pointed out, improving assists and turnovers

stockton doesnt increase his usage but still has a significant drop off statistically

[Prokorov]

Derozan can do himself some help by showing out this year.

Curry suffers from being the favorite and going to the finals constantly... when that happens fans will ignore the prior 3 rounds no matter how great you were. And his Finals performances are too narrative driven to really give proper credit...

Finals 1: very good. but lebron was better. they gave FMVP to iggy for getting abused by lebron. Curry not enough credit for this

Finals 2: poor showing, outplayed by Kyrie, and losing a series they were up 3-1. ouch.

Finals 3: He was great but KD was better and KD got the shine

Finals 4: He was very good but KD was better and KD got the shine and it was a sweep so less hype

Finals 5: played great, some huge games... but they lost, KD was hurt, Klay was hurt so no one paid attention

Curry also lacks that defining playoff moment. His first win was the only one where he was the undisputed man without KD and lebron stole the show. There is no shot like Kyrie game 7 on currys reel. and i think that hurts him too. there is no like, 45 point game 6 perfromance to force the series to go 7. that hurts him.

Down 3-1 in 2016 WCF and then having 3 superb games is definitely a defining moment, especially when his game 7 was 38-5-8 on superb efficiency.

Problem with this is that The 2016 WCF performances will get mostly ignored due to what happened in the Finals.

Its also Klays performance that stands out more in that series and that will overshadow him as well.

Exactly, the fact that i dont even remeber that WCF is evidence it was defining