What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

Post #1741 » by **Feed Your Head** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 12:19 am

I posted this in the GB MVP poll thread, but cool to see.

Jokic:
1st in EPM
4th in DPM
1st in RAPTOR
1st in LEBRON
1st in RPM
1st in BPM

Embiid:
2nd in EPM
3rd in DPM
2nd in RAPTOR
2nd in LEBRON
2nd in RPM
3rd in BPM

Giannis:
3rd in EPM
2nd in DPM
3rd in RAPTOR
3rd in LEBRON
5th in RPM
2nd in BPM

Steph:
4th in EPM
5th in DPM
6th in RAPTOR
5th in LEBRON
3rd in RPM
9th in BPM

Morant:
27th in EPM
38th in DPM
28th in RAPTOR
10th in LEBRON
48th in RPM
8th in BPM

Luka:
16th in EPM
18th in DPM
7th in RAPTOR
18th in LEBRON
7th in RPM
4th in BPM

DeRozan:
32nd in EPM
100th in DPM (tied)
67th in RAPTOR
65th in LEBRON
43rd in RPM
35th in BPM

Tatum:
8th in EPM
8th in DPM
5th in RAPTOR
6th in LEBRON
4th in RPM
19th in BPM

Booker:
25th in EPM
18th in DPM
24th in RAPTOR
34th in LEBRON
16th in RPM
25th in BPM

CP3:
11th in EPM
9th in DPM
38th in RAPTOR
9th in LEBRON
8th in RPM
11th in BPM

Obviously Demar sticks out, but people in the analytics community will flat out admit that advanced stats are having a really tough time measuring him this season.

zoyathedestroya · Post #1742 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 11:57 am

Horford and Ime have both referred to that New Year's Eve game vs Phoenix as the turning point of the Celtics offense.

Just for fun... Since 12/31...
The Celtics offensive rating w/ Tatum ON the floor: 118.6
The Celtics offensive rating w/ Tatum OFF the floor: 103.8

That net difference* (14.8) is greater than the difference (13.1) between the current #1 offense and the current #30 offense in the NBA. So even with the Cs overall improvement in 2022, to say our offense craters with Tatum on the bench is quite the understatement.

*Next highest difference in ON/OFF offensive rating on the team is Smart at 6.0.

jmr07019 · Post #1743 » by **jmr07019** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:14 am

Read on Twitter

Tatum should eventually pass Pierce but Jaylen and Marcus could be 3 and 4 on this list

zoyathedestroya · Post #1744 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:20 am

Celtics ball movement gets due praise but NONE of it would be possible (not at this level) if we didn't have THIS VERSION of Jayson Tatum.

Post #1745 » by **Feed Your Head** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:21 am

zoyathedestroya wrote:Celtics ball movement gets due praise but NONE of it would be possible (not at this level) if we didn't have THIS VERSION of Jayson Tatum.

Ime getting full buy in from Tatum changed the trajectory of this franchise.

MagicBagley18 · Post #1746 » by **MagicBagley18** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:23 am

I found footage of Tatum hitting his ceiling

Watch on YouTube

zoyathedestroya · Post #1747 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:30 am

Read on Twitter

Al must be thrilled to be a part of this after his stints in Philly and OKC.

zoyathedestroya · Post #1748 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:11 am

zoyathedestroya wrote:Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, DeRozan, and Tatum's respective teams currently have the same number of wins.

Tatum might be up there with the best of them in terms of WINS ADDED.

Update:

Read on Twitter

Still Jokic for me. Have you seen the rest of that roster??

zoyathedestroya · Post #1749 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:51 pm

'grats, JT!

Read on Twitter

Make that his 7th.

Post #1750 » by **Feed Your Head** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:47 pm

His ceiling is much like shak and I at the end of nights, really ******* high.

reload141 · Post #1751 » by **reload141** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:48 pm

The Comedian wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:Celtics ball movement gets due praise but NONE of it would be possible (not at this level) if we didn't have THIS VERSION of Jayson Tatum.

Ime getting full buy in from Tatum changed the trajectory of this franchise.

ryan in Maine · Post #1752 » by **ryan in Maine** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:47 am

Has anyone else noticed that Tatum and Rob have clearly been pairing up in practice? They're so fing deadly with that give back play. They're like one player in those moments and it always gets Tatum a tre.

Post #1753 » by **Feed Your Head** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:47 am

This is what a superstar looks like. And I remember being told on this very board we overrate him, when saying he’s by far the best player on this team. This was like 4/5 weeks ago, too :lol:

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=rD9-iurlTpi055Zx0aphXQ

MagicBagley18 · Post #1754 » by **MagicBagley18** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:51 am

The Comedian wrote:This is what a superstar looks like. And I remember being told on this very board we overrate him, when saying he’s by far the best player on this team. This was like 4/5 weeks ago, too

Read on Twitter
?s=20&t=rD9-iurlTpi055Zx0aphXQ

Let’s also not forget the “he doesn’t care about winning” “we should trade him” “he’s overrated” takes either. this guy is just on another level from not only any other player on this team by a large margin but most of the league.

zoyathedestroya · Post #1755 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:52 am

The Comedian wrote:This is what a superstar looks like. And I remember being told on this very board we overrate him, when saying he’s by far the best player on this team. This was like 4/5 weeks ago, too

Read on Twitter
?s=20&t=rD9-iurlTpi055Zx0aphXQ

So I was right, it really started last week of January. Just so happened it coincided with Smart coming back and saying this...

Read on Twitter

His five subpar games in that stretch...
20/6/4 but 5 TOs and 5/17 shooting. L.
15/9/7 but 4 TOs and 6/18 shooting. W.
22/4/5 but 7 TOs and 7/15 shooting. L.
24/5/3 but 7/22 FG and 2/12 from 3. L.
21/11/3 but 7/23 FG and 3/10 from 3. L.

Just to be clear, these stat lines would be season-best for some starters in this league. But his bar should be set higher now. And beyond the stats, I think we lost those partly due to poor offensive execution in the fourth which should be on him & Ime.

The bulk of his play the past two months has been...

Fencer reregistered · Post #1756 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 6:14 am

jmr07019 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Tatum should eventually pass Pierce but Jaylen and Marcus could be 3 and 4 on this list

No doubt.

And then there's Steph Curry, who had 726 made 3s in a two-season stretch, and is currently at 3117 for his career.

zoyathedestroya · Post #1757 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:12 am

Pierce never had a 27 ppg, 8 rpg season. Or a 50-win season pre-KG. Tatum can achieve both as the lead guy this season.

Spoiler:

jmr07019 · Post #1758 » by **jmr07019** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:54 am

Fencer reregistered wrote:
jmr07019 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Tatum should eventually pass Pierce but Jaylen and Marcus could be 3 and 4 on this list

No doubt.

And then there's Steph Curry, who had 726 made 3s in a two-season stretch, and is currently at 3117 for his career.

Damn we all know the game has changed but it's easy to forget how much. Especially for a guy like me who never saw 80s ball. Bird one of if not the greatest shooter from his time and Steph out does him in 2 seasons.

jmr07019 · Post #1759 » by **jmr07019** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:24 pm

Jokic and Embiid are rightfully brought up as players who could be better than Tatum but I ask how effective is a drop big in the playoffs and does it ultimately limit your ceiling as a team?

In the playoffs you will likely have to beat some combination Harden, Middleton, Tatum, Irving, Durant, Steph, CP3, Booker not to mention the Heat who rain 3's on everyone. Jokic and Embiid can be beaten on the perimeter. It is harder for such a big body to play both ways compared to guys like Giannis, Tatum or Durant who do not carry the extra weight.

Lets looks at past champions and their primary big. I admit to not being overly confident in my knowledge of every team's defensive schemes but most primary bigs were athletic enough to run something besides drop coverage.

Bucks - Giannis
Lakers - Davis
Raps - M Gasol played a key role but they also had Ibaka and Siakim
Dubs - Draymond
Dubs - Draymond
Cavs - Love not a great defender
Dubs - Draymond
Spurs - Duncan is more like Embiid and Jokic than anyone else on this list
Heat - Bosh
Heat - Bosh

Spurs with Duncan kind of resemble an Embiid / Jokic built team. Cavs don't resemble one but they don't have that quicker big man who can also defend the perimeter well. The rest of these teams have bigs who are much better at defending the perimeter compared to Jokic or Embiid.

Jokic and Embiid are phenomal players and I'm not even making the case that they can't win a title but I would rather have Giannis, Durant or Tatum.

zoyathedestroya · Post #1760 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 1:26 pm

There's some talk of Jokic being voted in as PF in All-NBA ballots. Tatum could be kicked to 2nd team at best. If voters put two of KD (disregarding games played), DeRozan (disregarding advanced stats), and Lebron (disregarding how his team sucks) as 2nd team, JT could fall to 3rd.