2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

After some early season hype about chasing the on/off record ('16 +18.5/+26.3), Jokic fallen back to earth. +7.7 on court, +13.8 on/off.

Some other top high minutes guys from this season:
Tatum: +10.9, +14.2
Curry: +10.1, +11.5
Mikal: +11.1, +8.7
Jrue: +9.0, +11.9
Giannis: +8.3, +10.6
Embiid: +6.6, +10.6
Garland: +6.7, +9.9
Gobert: +9.8, +6.4
Durant: +6.1, +10.0

You know stuff like this is my jam so there's a ton I'd enjoy getting into here, but Tatum is obviously the big thing.

The fact that people still aren't thinking about Tatum as a serious MVP candidate - when he might already be the actual MVP of the league right as we speak - really speaks to that time-delay effect. Between Tatum never having been an MVP candidate before, and the slow start with the pre-mature narrative burial, it really does seem like Tatum has no chance at winning the MVP even if the Celtics end up above the Bucks & & 76ers in the standings, and to me that really doesn't stand up to serious analysis.

I do understand a reluctance to elevate a new guy, but at the very least, people should furrowing their brows and asking seriously whether Tatum's the MVP, and they really aren't.

[RCM88x]

After some early season hype about chasing the on/off record ('16 +18.5/+26.3), Jokic fallen back to earth. +7.7 on court, +13.8 on/off.

Some other top high minutes guys from this season:
Tatum: +10.9, +14.2
Curry: +10.1, +11.5
Mikal: +11.1, +8.7
Jrue: +9.0, +11.9
Giannis: +8.3, +10.6
Embiid: +6.6, +10.6
Garland: +6.7, +9.9
Gobert: +9.8, +6.4
Durant: +6.1, +10.0

You know stuff like this is my jam so there's a ton I'd enjoy getting into here, but Tatum is obviously the big thing.

The fact that people still aren't thinking about Tatum as a serious MVP candidate - when he might already be the actual MVP of the league right as we speak - really speaks to that time-delay effect. Between Tatum never having been an MVP candidate before, and the slow start with the pre-mature narrative burial, it really does seem like Tatum has no chance at winning the MVP even if the Celtics end up above the Bucks & & 76ers in the standings, and to me that really doesn't stand up to serious analysis.

I do understand a reluctance to elevate a new guy, but at the very least, people should furrowing their brows and asking seriously whether Tatum's the MVP, and they really aren't.

He doesn't even appear in the BBRef MVP tracker metric, which was pretty surprising to me. Feel like that would be something that would recognize his impact in the last 30 games and weed out the bias, but perhaps it does weigh different parts of the season differently based on past trends. Not sure how detailed it gets "behind the scenes" with numbers that it doesn't list out on the page itself.

That being said, all of his box score derived "advanced" stats are very pedestrian for even a top 10 player considering the Celtics record/SRS. To where I don't really have him in the MVP conversation, or at least not in the top 5.

[Peregrine01]

I think Jokic's net on/off has come back down to earth because Bones and Boogie are looking like the Nuggets' best players sans Jokic and they barely share any minutes with him.

[eminence]

I think Jokic's net on/off has come back down to earth because Bones and Boogie are looking like the Nuggets' best players sans Jokic and they barely share any minutes with him.

This is part of it, prior to their emergence their bench was performing at all time levels of bad.

[Peregrine01]

I think Jokic's net on/off has come back down to earth because Bones and Boogie are looking like the Nuggets' best players sans Jokic and they barely share any minutes with him.

This is part of it, prior to their emergence their bench was performing at all time levels of bad.

And Barton and Gordon have been pretty awful.

[Doctor MJ]

After some early season hype about chasing the on/off record ('16 +18.5/+26.3), Jokic fallen back to earth. +7.7 on court, +13.8 on/off.

Some other top high minutes guys from this season:
Tatum: +10.9, +14.2
Curry: +10.1, +11.5
Mikal: +11.1, +8.7
Jrue: +9.0, +11.9
Giannis: +8.3, +10.6
Embiid: +6.6, +10.6
Garland: +6.7, +9.9
Gobert: +9.8, +6.4
Durant: +6.1, +10.0

You know stuff like this is my jam so there's a ton I'd enjoy getting into here, but Tatum is obviously the big thing.

The fact that people still aren't thinking about Tatum as a serious MVP candidate - when he might already be the actual MVP of the league right as we speak - really speaks to that time-delay effect. Between Tatum never having been an MVP candidate before, and the slow start with the pre-mature narrative burial, it really does seem like Tatum has no chance at winning the MVP even if the Celtics end up above the Bucks & & 76ers in the standings, and to me that really doesn't stand up to serious analysis.

I do understand a reluctance to elevate a new guy, but at the very least, people should furrowing their brows and asking seriously whether Tatum's the MVP, and they really aren't.

He doesn't even appear in the BBRef MVP tracker metric, which was pretty surprising to me. Feel like that would be something that would recognize his impact in the last 30 games and weed out the bias, but perhaps it does weigh different parts of the season differently based on past trends. Not sure how detailed it gets "behind the scenes" with numbers that it doesn't list out on the page itself.

That being said, all of his box score derived "advanced" stats are very pedestrian for even a top 10 player considering the Celtics record/SRS. To where I don't really have him in the MVP conversation, or at least not in the top 5.

I can understand that vantage, but do consider:

Tatum is putting up 27ppg on 57% TS while leading the league in Defensive Win Shares. While others are putting up even more video-game-stats, it's not like Tatum's not putting up numbers that would traditionally be seen as "superstar".

Another thing that's not necessarily an argument, but significant: What we're seeing right now is that perimeter players are getting hurt efficiency-wise relative to bigs. So it's not the case that there are a bunch of other perimeter guys with drastically superior volume/efficiency. That may only be enough to place him at the top among the perimeter guys - in a race dominated by big-sized guys - but it's not the same thing as mediocrity compared to the guys we'd typically compared his performance to.

[Clyde Frazier]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

[parsnips33]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

The ghost of James Wiseman looms large

[Peregrine01]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

Well, that's been the case ever since Kerr became head coach. Sometimes I wonder if he's ideological to a fault. You have probably the most dangerous pick and roll guard ever and don't run any pick and rolls for him.

It's also worth noting that the Warriors' main nemesis in the West during their dynasty years, the Rockets, went to the extreme opposite of the egalitarian style that Kerr favors and ended up with similar (and sometimes better) offensive results despite having less talent. I bet Morey and D'Antoni watches the Warriors with complete befuddlement.

[falcolombardi]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

Well, that's been the case ever since Kerr became head coach. Sometimes I wonder if he's ideological to a fault. You have probably the most dangerous pick and roll guard ever and don't run any pick and rolls for him.

It's also worth noting that the Warriors' main nemesis in the West during their dynasty years, the Rockets, went to the extreme opposite of the egalitarian style that Kerr favors and ended up with similar (and sometimes better) offensive results despite having less talent. I bet Morey and D'Antoni watches the Warriors with complete befuddlement.

i sometimes wonder the same thingh, i mean is not like motion offense with their current roster was setting the world on fire (+1.5 offense in games with curry i think?)

maybe it would have been worth trying more pick and roll and see if they could inprove the offense

[falcolombardi]

After some early season hype about chasing the on/off record ('16 +18.5/+26.3), Jokic fallen back to earth. +7.7 on court, +13.8 on/off.

Some other top high minutes guys from this season:
Tatum: +10.9, +14.2
Curry: +10.1, +11.5
Mikal: +11.1, +8.7
Jrue: +9.0, +11.9
Giannis: +8.3, +10.6
Embiid: +6.6, +10.6
Garland: +6.7, +9.9
Gobert: +9.8, +6.4
Durant: +6.1, +10.0

You know stuff like this is my jam so there's a ton I'd enjoy getting into here, but Tatum is obviously the big thing.

The fact that people still aren't thinking about Tatum as a serious MVP candidate - when he might already be the actual MVP of the league right as we speak - really speaks to that time-delay effect. Between Tatum never having been an MVP candidate before, and the slow start with the pre-mature narrative burial, it really does seem like Tatum has no chance at winning the MVP even if the Celtics end up above the Bucks & & 76ers in the standings, and to me that really doesn't stand up to serious analysis.

I do understand a reluctance to elevate a new guy, but at the very least, people should furrowing their brows and asking seriously whether Tatum's the MVP, and they really aren't.

what do you think about jrue? i was already high on him but his play in a excelent bucks offense where he is looking like their most important offensive player is blowing me away

he feels way, way more indispensable to the bucks than anyone not named giannis amd far more than middleton (who i also like but he seems oddly replaceable for current bucks, at least this regular season)

i wonder if years from now we wont look back at him as a legit top 10 (or close) kind of guy in impact that was underated because of not taking a huge amount of shots

[parsnips33]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

Well, that's been the case ever since Kerr became head coach. Sometimes I wonder if he's ideological to a fault. You have probably the most dangerous pick and roll guard ever and don't run any pick and rolls for him.

It's also worth noting that the Warriors' main nemesis in the West during their dynasty years, the Rockets, went to the extreme opposite of the egalitarian style that Kerr favors and ended up with similar (and sometimes better) offensive results despite having less talent. I bet Morey and D'Antoni watches the Warriors with complete befuddlement.

It's worth noting that when the chips are down Warriors go-to play is still Steph-Draymond PNR.

I wonder if Warriors having a more diverse offense, while maybe capping their absolute ceiling, made their offense more resilient than those Rockets in a playoff setting. Granted Warriors had KD, but we still beat them before KD's arrival and after his injury.

It's a bit funny to imagine these guys that got beat by Kerr year after year looking down on him.

[AussieBuck]

Brook Lopez is moving better than he has since 2019. We're **** around with Giannis at SF lineups, Bucks shaping up to be a very big team in the playoffs. Worth keeping an eye on.

[falcolombardi]

Brook Lopez is moving better than he has since 2019. We're **** around with Giannis at SF lineups, Bucks shaping up to be a very big team in the playoffs. Worth keeping an eye on.

what do you think will be bucks best lineups come playoffs time?

brook/giannis/middleton/grayson/jrue?

or going big with lopez/ibaka(or portis)/ giannis/middleton/jrue?

[Doctor MJ]

After some early season hype about chasing the on/off record ('16 +18.5/+26.3), Jokic fallen back to earth. +7.7 on court, +13.8 on/off.

Some other top high minutes guys from this season:
Tatum: +10.9, +14.2
Curry: +10.1, +11.5
Mikal: +11.1, +8.7
Jrue: +9.0, +11.9
Giannis: +8.3, +10.6
Embiid: +6.6, +10.6
Garland: +6.7, +9.9
Gobert: +9.8, +6.4
Durant: +6.1, +10.0

You know stuff like this is my jam so there's a ton I'd enjoy getting into here, but Tatum is obviously the big thing.

The fact that people still aren't thinking about Tatum as a serious MVP candidate - when he might already be the actual MVP of the league right as we speak - really speaks to that time-delay effect. Between Tatum never having been an MVP candidate before, and the slow start with the pre-mature narrative burial, it really does seem like Tatum has no chance at winning the MVP even if the Celtics end up above the Bucks & & 76ers in the standings, and to me that really doesn't stand up to serious analysis.

I do understand a reluctance to elevate a new guy, but at the very least, people should furrowing their brows and asking seriously whether Tatum's the MVP, and they really aren't.

what do you think about jrue? i was already high on him but his play in a excelent bucks offense where he is looking like their most important offensive player is blowing me away

he feels way, way more indispensable to the bucks than anyone not named giannis amd far more than middleton (who i also like but he seems oddly replaceable for current bucks, at least this regular season)

i wonder if years from now we wont look back at him as a legit top 10 (or close) kind of guy in impact that was underated because of not taking a huge amount of shots

Yup, quite underrated in general. Should have been an all-star this year.

[Doctor MJ]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

Well, that's been the case ever since Kerr became head coach. Sometimes I wonder if he's ideological to a fault. You have probably the most dangerous pick and roll guard ever and don't run any pick and rolls for him.

It's also worth noting that the Warriors' main nemesis in the West during their dynasty years, the Rockets, went to the extreme opposite of the egalitarian style that Kerr favors and ended up with similar (and sometimes better) offensive results despite having less talent. I bet Morey and D'Antoni watches the Warriors with complete befuddlement.

It's worth noting that when the chips are down Warriors go-to play is still Steph-Draymond PNR.

I wonder if Warriors having a more diverse offense, while maybe capping their absolute ceiling, made their offense more resilient than those Rockets in a playoff setting. Granted Warriors had KD, but we still beat them before KD's arrival and after his injury.

It's a bit funny to imagine these guys that got beat by Kerr year after year looking down on him.

I think this gets to Kerr's philosophy, and it harkens also to his sparing use of the Death Lineup. I think Kerr's thinking 2 things:

1. For the team to be as resilient as possible, everybody on the team has to be engaged and learning throughout the season.

2. If you rely on any one trick too much, people are going to figure out how to mitigate the damage.

Tangent: Drives me nuts when people say that "Curry can't play more like a traditional point/scoring guard". Of course he can. He's not a Nash-level passer, but who is? The Warriors play him like they do for good reasons, but those reasons aren't about driven by weaknesses of his, and if your goal was to have Curry score as much as possible, you'd have him play more traditionally.

[AussieBuck]

Brook Lopez is moving better than he has since 2019. We're **** around with Giannis at SF lineups, Bucks shaping up to be a very big team in the playoffs. Worth keeping an eye on.

what do you think will be bucks best lineups come playoffs time?

brook/giannis/middleton/grayson/jrue?

or going big with lopez/ibaka(or portis)/ giannis/middleton/jrue?

Probably the first if Brook continues to move this well. Could also be the Portis/Giannis PF/C lineup as long as Giannis plays the 5. We usually have played Bobby there in the regular season I guess to save Giannis banging but it's not a serious defensive lineup for the playoffs.

I think the Giannis at SF with Bobby at PF and Ibaka at C lineup might end up being the first formation we try for the Giannis and bench guys thing we do. The other non starting lineup will probably be something like Jrue, Pat, Khris', Bobby, Lopez.

Wes, Hill and Carter all having low minute usefulness makes this version so much deeper than last season.

[AussieBuck]

After some early season hype about chasing the on/off record ('16 +18.5/+26.3), Jokic fallen back to earth. +7.7 on court, +13.8 on/off.

Some other top high minutes guys from this season:
Tatum: +10.9, +14.2
Curry: +10.1, +11.5
Mikal: +11.1, +8.7
Jrue: +9.0, +11.9
Giannis: +8.3, +10.6
Embiid: +6.6, +10.6
Garland: +6.7, +9.9
Gobert: +9.8, +6.4
Durant: +6.1, +10.0

You know stuff like this is my jam so there's a ton I'd enjoy getting into here, but Tatum is obviously the big thing.

The fact that people still aren't thinking about Tatum as a serious MVP candidate - when he might already be the actual MVP of the league right as we speak - really speaks to that time-delay effect. Between Tatum never having been an MVP candidate before, and the slow start with the pre-mature narrative burial, it really does seem like Tatum has no chance at winning the MVP even if the Celtics end up above the Bucks & & 76ers in the standings, and to me that really doesn't stand up to serious analysis.

I do understand a reluctance to elevate a new guy, but at the very least, people should furrowing their brows and asking seriously whether Tatum's the MVP, and they really aren't.

what do you think about jrue? i was already high on him but his play in a excelent bucks offense where he is looking like their most important offensive player is blowing me away

he feels way, way more indispensable to the bucks than anyone not named giannis amd far more than middleton (who i also like but he seems oddly replaceable for current bucks, at least this regular season)

i wonder if years from now we wont look back at him as a legit top 10 (or close) kind of guy in impact that was underated because of not taking a huge amount of shots

Yeah Jrue is kinda mailing in the D for all but the last part of games but he's been better than Middleton with how he's shooting. He deserved that all star spot instead.

[Peregrine01]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

Well, that's been the case ever since Kerr became head coach. Sometimes I wonder if he's ideological to a fault. You have probably the most dangerous pick and roll guard ever and don't run any pick and rolls for him.

It's also worth noting that the Warriors' main nemesis in the West during their dynasty years, the Rockets, went to the extreme opposite of the egalitarian style that Kerr favors and ended up with similar (and sometimes better) offensive results despite having less talent. I bet Morey and D'Antoni watches the Warriors with complete befuddlement.

It's worth noting that when the chips are down Warriors go-to play is still Steph-Draymond PNR.

I wonder if Warriors having a more diverse offense, while maybe capping their absolute ceiling, made their offense more resilient than those Rockets in a playoff setting. Granted Warriors had KD, but we still beat them before KD's arrival and after his injury.

It's a bit funny to imagine these guys that got beat by Kerr year after year looking down on him.

Kerr's dogmatic approach likely cost the Warriors a championship in 2016. Having Curry play off ball just made it that much easier for defenses to deny him the ball and NBA officiating has always allowed defenses to rough up guys off ball a lot more than they ever could on ball, and this is especially so during the playoffs. So Curry was not only worn out from running around screens and setting screens but it destroyed his rhythm when he finally could get the ball and do something with it, which was often as the shot clock was winding down.

The Cavs played pretty much the same defense on Curry that the Thunder did and the Thunder almost beat the Warriors in the WCF. Denying the offense's best offensive player the ball is always a huge win for the defense and the Warriors played right into their hands by willingly using Curry as a decoy. IMO, Kerr was badly outcoached in both series.

[TheGOATRises007]

Read on Twitter

Well that isn't ideal.

For all the praise Kerr gets, he doesn't run Steph enough in PNR action.