OT: Russia-Ukraine War

Clyde_Style · Post #1561 » by **Clyde_Style** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 1:00 pm

You have to ask why does Putin need these guys?

Also, does Erik Prince have anything to do with this?

He is one of the biggest unsung traitors with Trump ties and has had a big hand in the mercenary militia market in Africa before so nothing would surprise me

Clyde_Style · Post #1562 » by **Clyde_Style** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 1:23 pm

I think my hunch was good

here's an earlier article. They're talking about the same org, the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary ops company:

Erik Prince Offered Military Services to Sanctioned Russian Mercenary Firm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/erik-prince-offered-military-services-to-sanctioned-russian-mercenary-firm-wagner-report-says

Spoiler:

I think this could end up being pretty significant as Biden's adminstration tightens its grip on any extra-territorial activities by Russian interests. Keep in mind that Prince's sister is Betsy DeVos, Trump's wildly corrupt Secy of Education, whom hackers confirmed was receiving data dumps from Russian sources routed through Trump Tower to her company servers in Michigan. This coincided with the Russian hacking of the Democratic party.

Manafort, now possibly Prince. The rats are busy

HarthorneWingo · Post #1563 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 3:07 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:I think my hunch was good

here's an earlier article. They're talking about the same org, the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary ops company:

Erik Prince Offered Military Services to Sanctioned Russian Mercenary Firm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/erik-prince-offered-military-services-to-sanctioned-russian-mercenary-firm-wagner-report-says
Spoiler:
Erik Prince, founder of the private security company Blackwater and a Trump administration adviser, has recently attempted to cultivate a business relationship with a sanctioned Russian paramilitary organization called the Wagner Group, The Intercept reported on Monday. The Trump administration sanctioned Wagner in 2017 for having “recruited and sent soldiers to fight alongside [Russian-backed] separatists in eastern Ukraine” in 2014. “In my experience, the act of soliciting from a sanctioned party would indeed be an apparent violation,” Brian O’Toole, a former senior sanctions official at the Treasury Department, told The Intercept, adding that offering to do business with Wagner “would seem to be a fairly egregious thing to do.”

Prince, who is Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’ brother, reportedly met face to face with a top official at Wagner to offer his mercenary forces in at least two ongoing African conflicts, according to The Intercept. Wagner officials reportedly turned him down. The semi-private Russian mercenary firm has been commissioned by the Russian government in a number of high-conflict areas, including Ukraine, Syria, and several African countries. The U.S. military previously killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries in defending a Syrian oil facility in 2018. “Wagner Group is an instrument of Russian policy. It works under the GRU, which is the Russian military intelligence,” Sean McFate, a former military contractor, told The Intercept.

I think this could end up being pretty significant as Biden's adminstration tightens its grip on any extra-territorial activities by Russian interests. Keep in mind that Prince's sister is Betsy DeVos, Trump's wildly corrupt Secy of Education, whom hackers confirmed was receiving data dumps from Russian sources routed through Trump Tower to her company servers in Michigan. This coincided with the Russian hacking of the Democratic party.

Manafort, now possibly Prince. The rats are busy

The ol’ read the article, post the hunch, then come back and cite the article to confirm the hunch trick. :lol:

j/k good call.

Clyde_Style · Post #1564 » by **Clyde_Style** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 3:15 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:I think my hunch was good

here's an earlier article. They're talking about the same org, the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary ops company:

Erik Prince Offered Military Services to Sanctioned Russian Mercenary Firm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/erik-prince-offered-military-services-to-sanctioned-russian-mercenary-firm-wagner-report-says
Spoiler:
Erik Prince, founder of the private security company Blackwater and a Trump administration adviser, has recently attempted to cultivate a business relationship with a sanctioned Russian paramilitary organization called the Wagner Group, The Intercept reported on Monday. The Trump administration sanctioned Wagner in 2017 for having “recruited and sent soldiers to fight alongside [Russian-backed] separatists in eastern Ukraine” in 2014. “In my experience, the act of soliciting from a sanctioned party would indeed be an apparent violation,” Brian O’Toole, a former senior sanctions official at the Treasury Department, told The Intercept, adding that offering to do business with Wagner “would seem to be a fairly egregious thing to do.”

Prince, who is Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’ brother, reportedly met face to face with a top official at Wagner to offer his mercenary forces in at least two ongoing African conflicts, according to The Intercept. Wagner officials reportedly turned him down. The semi-private Russian mercenary firm has been commissioned by the Russian government in a number of high-conflict areas, including Ukraine, Syria, and several African countries. The U.S. military previously killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries in defending a Syrian oil facility in 2018. “Wagner Group is an instrument of Russian policy. It works under the GRU, which is the Russian military intelligence,” Sean McFate, a former military contractor, told The Intercept.

I think this could end up being pretty significant as Biden's adminstration tightens its grip on any extra-territorial activities by Russian interests. Keep in mind that Prince's sister is Betsy DeVos, Trump's wildly corrupt Secy of Education, whom hackers confirmed was receiving data dumps from Russian sources routed through Trump Tower to her company servers in Michigan. This coincided with the Russian hacking of the Democratic party.

Manafort, now possibly Prince. The rats are busy

The ol’ read the article, post the hunch, then come back and cite the article to confirm the hunch trick.

j/k good call.

Yeah, that was me thinking out loud in real time and it was just a solid hunch based on the huge amount of time I wasted on researching the crimes of the Trump mafia family. It's still in the conjectural realm, but all of the fingerprints are already in place so the probability is fairly strong that a traitorous mercenary lord of war like Prince would still try to profit off of Russia's patronage in this present conflict

HarthorneWingo · Post #1565 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 3:22 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:I think my hunch was good

here's an earlier article. They're talking about the same org, the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary ops company:

Erik Prince Offered Military Services to Sanctioned Russian Mercenary Firm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/erik-prince-offered-military-services-to-sanctioned-russian-mercenary-firm-wagner-report-says
Spoiler:
Erik Prince, founder of the private security company Blackwater and a Trump administration adviser, has recently attempted to cultivate a business relationship with a sanctioned Russian paramilitary organization called the Wagner Group, The Intercept reported on Monday. The Trump administration sanctioned Wagner in 2017 for having “recruited and sent soldiers to fight alongside [Russian-backed] separatists in eastern Ukraine” in 2014. “In my experience, the act of soliciting from a sanctioned party would indeed be an apparent violation,” Brian O’Toole, a former senior sanctions official at the Treasury Department, told The Intercept, adding that offering to do business with Wagner “would seem to be a fairly egregious thing to do.”

Prince, who is Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’ brother, reportedly met face to face with a top official at Wagner to offer his mercenary forces in at least two ongoing African conflicts, according to The Intercept. Wagner officials reportedly turned him down. The semi-private Russian mercenary firm has been commissioned by the Russian government in a number of high-conflict areas, including Ukraine, Syria, and several African countries. The U.S. military previously killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries in defending a Syrian oil facility in 2018. “Wagner Group is an instrument of Russian policy. It works under the GRU, which is the Russian military intelligence,” Sean McFate, a former military contractor, told The Intercept.

I think this could end up being pretty significant as Biden's adminstration tightens its grip on any extra-territorial activities by Russian interests. Keep in mind that Prince's sister is Betsy DeVos, Trump's wildly corrupt Secy of Education, whom hackers confirmed was receiving data dumps from Russian sources routed through Trump Tower to her company servers in Michigan. This coincided with the Russian hacking of the Democratic party.

Manafort, now possibly Prince. The rats are busy

The ol’ read the article, post the hunch, then come back and cite the article to confirm the hunch trick.

j/k good call.

Yeah, that was me thinking out loud in real time and it was just a solid hunch based on the huge amount of time I wasted on researching the crimes of the Trump mafia family. It's still in the conjectural realm, but all of the fingerprints are already in place so the probability is fairly strong that a traitorous mercenary lord of war like Prince would still try to profit off of Russia's patronage in this present conflict

That Trump research came in handy. Prince (brother to Betsy DeVos) is scum. He belongs in jail.

RandlesCornrows · Post #1566 » by **RandlesCornrows** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:31 pm

Always felt the Trump regime was suspicious. As time goes on the USA becomes compromised, generation changes and so do the ideas from within. It’s so clear how correlated Trump & Putin is. And it was Putin’s plan. During the Soviet regime, they stated that they don’t need to fire ‘one missile’ because ‘it will come from within’. Donald Trump is a Russian asset. And he’s the perfect person to destroy America. Between his popularity, true MAGA supporters fanboy Trump. It’s almost like Putin nearly accomplished his goal, or did he? To me it seems like Trumps MAGA supporters remind me kinda like nazi’s. And I don’t think the public is ready to hear that… I live in the most republican part of NYC, in Staten Island, and you see how much these people love Trump and how much they despise Biden and his supporters. Living in Staten Island I see how many racists all support trump. It makes so much sense to divide America in order to get Americans to be on the side of Putin. And it’s kinda working. MAGA supporters would rather believe Russian propaganda than being an American.

Fortunately the deep state took out Trump, because he DID win the election. But Donald Trump treasonous actions caused this. I believe Putin had this planned for Trumps second term, but we were ahead of the punch, and installed a democrat president, whose main purpose was to weaken Russia, instead of strengthening it because US intelligence was aware of this.

Now that Putin’s plan completely failed, he’s now causing genocide against people who has Russian ties, his economy is crumbling, 194 countries are against him, and the oligarchs are scrambling for money. Best of all, his military cannot back him up what so ever. But unfortunately his nuclear arsenal does.

I don’t know what will happen. I work at Costco. And I see prices RISE like INSANE. For example; a container of tide pods cost $32.49, dishes are $18.99, cooking oil goes between $20-$35 depending on the band. You see how much the US economy is in shambles as well. Inflation is definitely at an all time high. We’ve regressed back so many years because of this. I don’t feel good about the future in America.

I wonder what American politics will look liKe in 12-20 years. If we even make it that far.

Note: I voted for Trump. But my god, I wasn’t ready for this bomb shell.

The world will NEVER be the same.

Pointgod · Post #1567 » by **Pointgod** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 8:51 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:

Read on Twitter

You have to ask why does Putin need these guys?

Also, does Erik Prince have anything to do with this?

He is one of the biggest unsung traitors with Trump ties and has had a big hand in the mercenary militia market in Africa before so nothing would surprise me

Very woke of Putin to have a diverse group of war criminals.

Clyde_Style · Post #1568 » by **Clyde_Style** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 12:33 am

Good read by the Prime Minister of Estonia on how to combat Putin

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/opinion/nato-russia-putin-estonia.html

Clyde_Style · Post #1569 » by **Clyde_Style** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 12:53 am

RandlesCornrows wrote:Always felt the Trump regime was suspicious. As time goes on the USA becomes compromised, generation changes and so do the ideas from within. It’s so clear how correlated Trump & Putin is. And it was Putin’s plan. During the Soviet regime, they stated that they don’t need to fire ‘one missile’ because ‘it will come from within’. Donald Trump is a Russian asset. And he’s the perfect person to destroy America. Between his popularity, true MAGA supporters fanboy Trump. It’s almost like Putin nearly accomplished his goal, or did he? To me it seems like Trumps MAGA supporters remind me kinda like nazi’s. And I don’t think the public is ready to hear that… I live in the most republican part of NYC, in Staten Island, and you see how much these people love Trump and how much they despise Biden and his supporters. Living in Staten Island I see how many racists all support trump. It makes so much sense to divide America in order to get Americans to be on the side of Putin. And it’s kinda working. MAGA supporters would rather believe Russian propaganda than being an American.

Fortunately the deep state took out Trump, because he DID win the election. But Donald Trump treasonous actions caused this. I believe Putin had this planned for Trumps second term, but we were ahead of the punch, and installed a democrat president, whose main purpose was to weaken Russia, instead of strengthening it because US intelligence was aware of this.

Now that Putin’s plan completely failed, he’s now causing genocide against people who has Russian ties, his economy is crumbling, 194 countries are against him, and the oligarchs are scrambling for money. Best of all, his military cannot back him up what so ever. But unfortunately his nuclear arsenal does.

I don’t know what will happen. I work at Costco. And I see prices RISE like INSANE. For example; a container of tide pods cost $32.49, dishes are $18.99, cooking oil goes between $20-$35 depending on the band. You see how much the US economy is in shambles as well. Inflation is definitely at an all time high. We’ve regressed back so many years because of this. I don’t feel good about the future in America.

I wonder what American politics will look liKe in 12-20 years. If we even make it that far.

Note: I voted for Trump. But my god, I wasn’t ready for this bomb shell.

The world will NEVER be the same.

Staten Island is definitely a separate part of NYC, especially politically.

Just curious about something. You seem fully aware of Trump’s criminality and have appropriately gauged his relations to Putin. On the other hand, it felt incongruous to then see you say Trump won the election and the deep state took him out.

TBH, I’ve never seen anyone who so clearly gets the degree of insanity that MAGA represents also invoke the deep state. So I’d like to understand what would make you think this is the case.

Just to foreground my question, I do not believe the Deep State rhetoric at all. What some people call the deep state is actually career civil servants who serve under any administration that is elected whether they are Republican or Democrat. These are people in the State Department (which was purged of many of the most valuable career employees by Trump), the DOJ and FBI,, various intelligence depts and many federal sectors. They are defined by their commitment to their job, not their party, and as such should be expected to take a disdainful view of any POTUS who attempts to put them through loyalty tests which is what Trump was doing. So if career civil servants undermined a corrupt administration in any way they did it by the book or by whistleblowing which has its own protocols. But they do not operate in the form of a secret society setting policy for the nation. That’s just not reality.

Second, Trump lost the popular vote by 7 Million votes and the electoral college by a convincing margin. After 50 lawsuits filed by the Trump administration challenging swing state results were thrown out of court with prejudice there is zero evidence this was anything but the most closely tracked and thus validated election in American history. Trump lost. He was not replaced by the Deep State

Clyde_Style · Post #1570 » by **Clyde_Style** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 1:44 am

Read on Twitter

Savages

Clyde_Style · Post #1571 » by **Clyde_Style** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 2:20 am

Read on Twitter

thebuzzardman · Post #1572 » by **thebuzzardman** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 11:35 am

Watch on YouTube

Jethrobodine123 · Post #1573 » by **Jethrobodine123** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 1:45 pm

Photos show interior of superyacht some say belongs Putin

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/25/putin-yacht-navalny-anti-corruption-foundation-investigation-intvu-ebof-vpx.cnn

Call him a Sociopath, call him a Psychopath, call him a megalomaniac, call him all of the above but it's truly sick when you think of all the money Putin and his oligarchs have stolen from the common people, most of whom are just barely getting by. I hate to bring the guy up but this would be right up Trump's alley, he would love to do the same. It's one of the many reasons why he dreams of being a dictator.

J

Jethrobodine123 · Post #1574 » by **Jethrobodine123** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 2:13 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:The beginning of the end for Putin

NY Times:

As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership
Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.

By Anton Troianovski and Michael Schwirtz
March 22, 2022
In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be “pointless and extremely dangerous.” It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten “the existence of Russia itself as a state.”

To many Russians, that seemed like a far-fetched scenario, since few imagined that an invasion of Ukraine was really possible. But two months later, as Russia’s advance stalls in Ukraine, the prophecy looms large. Reached by phone this week, the retired general who authored the declaration, Leonid Ivashov, said he stood by it, though he could not speak freely given Russia’s wartime censorship: “I do not disavow what I said.”

In Russia, the slow going and the heavy toll of President Vladimir V. Putin’s war on Ukraine are setting off questions about his military’s planning capability, his confidence in his top spies and loyal defense minister, and the quality of the intelligence that reaches him. It also shows the pitfalls of Mr. Putin’s top-down governance, in which officials and military officers have little leeway to make their own decisions and adapt to developments in real time.

The failures of Mr. Putin’s campaign are apparent in the striking number of senior military commanders believed to have been killed in the fighting. Ukraine says it has killed at least six Russian generals, while Russia acknowledges one of their deaths, along with that of the deputy commander of its Black Sea fleet. American officials say they cannot confirm the number of Russian troop deaths, but that Russia’s invasion plan appears to have been stymied by bad intelligence.
The lack of progress is so apparent that a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war — even as Russian propaganda claims that the slog is a consequence of the military’s care to avoid harming civilians. Igor Girkin, a former colonel in Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence agency and the former “defense minister” of Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, said in a video interview posted online on Monday that Russia had made a “catastrophically incorrect assessment” of Ukraine’s forces.

*****

The failures in Ukraine have started to create fissures within Russian leadership, according to Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s military and security services. The top Russian intelligence official in charge of overseeing the recruitment of spies and diversionary operations in Ukraine has been put under house arrest along with his deputy, Mr. Soldatov said. Even Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, who vacations with Mr. Putin and has been spoken of as a potential presidential successor, has suffered a loss of standing, according to Mr. Soldatov’s sources.

“It looks like everybody is on edge,” Mr. Soldatov said.

Mr. Soldatov’s claims could not be independently verified, and some independent experts have challenged them. But Mr. Shoigu has not been shown meeting with Mr. Putin in person since Feb. 27, when he and his top military commander, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, sat at the end of a long table as Mr. Putin, on the opposite end, ordered them to place Russia’s nuclear forces at a higher level of readiness.
“The war has shown that the army fights poorly,” Mr. Luzin, the Russian military analyst, said. “The defense minister is responsible for this.”

-more-

All of the above is true and you could add so much that is happening in the Ukraine and Russia that is not only extremely negative to Putin but also very embarrassing to him. The problem that we have now is that he is truly backed in a corner and there doesn't seem to be an off ramp out of this awful situation for him. So this makes him extremely dangerous, he is capable of anything, nothing is off the table for this madman, no weapon too horrible that he won't use. He could decide to use weapons of mass destruction at any time. Unfortunately, the reality is that we are entering an even more dangerous phase of this war, things could escalate very quickly, very quickly indeed. This makes the Cuban missile crisis look like child's play.

J

Clyde_Style · Post #1575 » by **Clyde_Style** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 3:21 pm

Jethrobodine123 wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:The beginning of the end for Putin

NY Times:

As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership
Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.

By Anton Troianovski and Michael Schwirtz
March 22, 2022
In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be “pointless and extremely dangerous.” It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten “the existence of Russia itself as a state.”

To many Russians, that seemed like a far-fetched scenario, since few imagined that an invasion of Ukraine was really possible. But two months later, as Russia’s advance stalls in Ukraine, the prophecy looms large. Reached by phone this week, the retired general who authored the declaration, Leonid Ivashov, said he stood by it, though he could not speak freely given Russia’s wartime censorship: “I do not disavow what I said.”

In Russia, the slow going and the heavy toll of President Vladimir V. Putin’s war on Ukraine are setting off questions about his military’s planning capability, his confidence in his top spies and loyal defense minister, and the quality of the intelligence that reaches him. It also shows the pitfalls of Mr. Putin’s top-down governance, in which officials and military officers have little leeway to make their own decisions and adapt to developments in real time.

The failures of Mr. Putin’s campaign are apparent in the striking number of senior military commanders believed to have been killed in the fighting. Ukraine says it has killed at least six Russian generals, while Russia acknowledges one of their deaths, along with that of the deputy commander of its Black Sea fleet. American officials say they cannot confirm the number of Russian troop deaths, but that Russia’s invasion plan appears to have been stymied by bad intelligence.
The lack of progress is so apparent that a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war — even as Russian propaganda claims that the slog is a consequence of the military’s care to avoid harming civilians. Igor Girkin, a former colonel in Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence agency and the former “defense minister” of Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, said in a video interview posted online on Monday that Russia had made a “catastrophically incorrect assessment” of Ukraine’s forces.

*****

The failures in Ukraine have started to create fissures within Russian leadership, according to Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s military and security services. The top Russian intelligence official in charge of overseeing the recruitment of spies and diversionary operations in Ukraine has been put under house arrest along with his deputy, Mr. Soldatov said. Even Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, who vacations with Mr. Putin and has been spoken of as a potential presidential successor, has suffered a loss of standing, according to Mr. Soldatov’s sources.

“It looks like everybody is on edge,” Mr. Soldatov said.

Mr. Soldatov’s claims could not be independently verified, and some independent experts have challenged them. But Mr. Shoigu has not been shown meeting with Mr. Putin in person since Feb. 27, when he and his top military commander, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, sat at the end of a long table as Mr. Putin, on the opposite end, ordered them to place Russia’s nuclear forces at a higher level of readiness.
“The war has shown that the army fights poorly,” Mr. Luzin, the Russian military analyst, said. “The defense minister is responsible for this.”

-more-

All of the above is true and you could add so much that is happening in the Ukraine and Russia that is not only extremely negative to Putin but also very embarrassing to him. The problem that we have now is that he is truly backed in a corner and there doesn't seem to be an off ramp out of this awful situation for him. So this makes him extremely dangerous, he is capable of anything, nothing is off the table for this madman, no weapon too horrible that he won't use. He could decide to use weapons of mass destruction at any time. Unfortunately, the reality is that we are entering an even more dangerous phase of this war, things could escalate very quickly, very quickly indeed. This makes the Cuban missile crisis look like child's play.

J

It’s really unpleasant to consider the possibilities, but one thing seems certain now. Ukraine will not lose via conventional weaponry. The Russians are losing previously gained ground and they are pretty far from Kyiv now. The result is a reliance on missiles which is laying waste to much of Ukraine so even if they emerge the “winner” they will inherit a pile of ashes.

We do seem to be entering a new phase where Russia’s ability to continue without reliance on long range missiles is questionable. The danger is real that Putin will up the amplitude and use more lethal weapons he still has at his disposal.

Putin’s mind determines whether or not he thinks there is a salvageable solution or if he says fukit and converts Russia into a permanent war machine. As long as he keeps getting paid for his oil he can continue to some degree even if many of his logistical capabilities are already neutered (no more tanks, etc.).

HarthorneWingo · Post #1576 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 6:56 pm

Jethrobodine123 wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:The beginning of the end for Putin

NY Times:

As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership
Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.

By Anton Troianovski and Michael Schwirtz
March 22, 2022
In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be “pointless and extremely dangerous.” It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten “the existence of Russia itself as a state.”

To many Russians, that seemed like a far-fetched scenario, since few imagined that an invasion of Ukraine was really possible. But two months later, as Russia’s advance stalls in Ukraine, the prophecy looms large. Reached by phone this week, the retired general who authored the declaration, Leonid Ivashov, said he stood by it, though he could not speak freely given Russia’s wartime censorship: “I do not disavow what I said.”

In Russia, the slow going and the heavy toll of President Vladimir V. Putin’s war on Ukraine are setting off questions about his military’s planning capability, his confidence in his top spies and loyal defense minister, and the quality of the intelligence that reaches him. It also shows the pitfalls of Mr. Putin’s top-down governance, in which officials and military officers have little leeway to make their own decisions and adapt to developments in real time.

The failures of Mr. Putin’s campaign are apparent in the striking number of senior military commanders believed to have been killed in the fighting. Ukraine says it has killed at least six Russian generals, while Russia acknowledges one of their deaths, along with that of the deputy commander of its Black Sea fleet. American officials say they cannot confirm the number of Russian troop deaths, but that Russia’s invasion plan appears to have been stymied by bad intelligence.
The lack of progress is so apparent that a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war — even as Russian propaganda claims that the slog is a consequence of the military’s care to avoid harming civilians. Igor Girkin, a former colonel in Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence agency and the former “defense minister” of Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, said in a video interview posted online on Monday that Russia had made a “catastrophically incorrect assessment” of Ukraine’s forces.

*****

The failures in Ukraine have started to create fissures within Russian leadership, according to Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s military and security services. The top Russian intelligence official in charge of overseeing the recruitment of spies and diversionary operations in Ukraine has been put under house arrest along with his deputy, Mr. Soldatov said. Even Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, who vacations with Mr. Putin and has been spoken of as a potential presidential successor, has suffered a loss of standing, according to Mr. Soldatov’s sources.

“It looks like everybody is on edge,” Mr. Soldatov said.

Mr. Soldatov’s claims could not be independently verified, and some independent experts have challenged them. But Mr. Shoigu has not been shown meeting with Mr. Putin in person since Feb. 27, when he and his top military commander, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, sat at the end of a long table as Mr. Putin, on the opposite end, ordered them to place Russia’s nuclear forces at a higher level of readiness.
“The war has shown that the army fights poorly,” Mr. Luzin, the Russian military analyst, said. “The defense minister is responsible for this.”

-more-

All of the above is true and you could add so much that is happening in the Ukraine and Russia that is not only extremely negative to Putin but also very embarrassing to him. The problem that we have now is that he is truly backed in a corner and there doesn't seem to be an off ramp out of this awful situation for him. So this makes him extremely dangerous, he is capable of anything, nothing is off the table for this madman, no weapon too horrible that he won't use. He could decide to use weapons of mass destruction at any time. Unfortunately, the reality is that we are entering an even more dangerous phase of this war, things could escalate very quickly, very quickly indeed. This makes the Cuban missile crisis look like child's play.

J

Yup. So, I'm curious about what your roundtable of esteemed thinkers think how this whole mess will play out.

thebuzzardman · Post #1577 » by **thebuzzardman** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 7:22 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Jethrobodine123 wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:The beginning of the end for Putin

NY Times:

All of the above is true and you could add so much that is happening in the Ukraine and Russia that is not only extremely negative to Putin but also very embarrassing to him. The problem that we have now is that he is truly backed in a corner and there doesn't seem to be an off ramp out of this awful situation for him. So this makes him extremely dangerous, he is capable of anything, nothing is off the table for this madman, no weapon too horrible that he won't use. He could decide to use weapons of mass destruction at any time. Unfortunately, the reality is that we are entering an even more dangerous phase of this war, things could escalate very quickly, very quickly indeed. This makes the Cuban missile crisis look like child's play.

J

Yup. So, I'm curious about what your roundtable of esteemed thinkers think how this whole mess will play out.

Russia tries to consolidate with the landbridge area around the Crimea

Jethrobodine123 · Post #1578 » by **Jethrobodine123** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:00 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Jethrobodine123 wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:The beginning of the end for Putin

NY Times:

All of the above is true and you could add so much that is happening in the Ukraine and Russia that is not only extremely negative to Putin but also very embarrassing to him. The problem that we have now is that he is truly backed in a corner and there doesn't seem to be an off ramp out of this awful situation for him. So this makes him extremely dangerous, he is capable of anything, nothing is off the table for this madman, no weapon too horrible that he won't use. He could decide to use weapons of mass destruction at any time. Unfortunately, the reality is that we are entering an even more dangerous phase of this war, things could escalate very quickly, very quickly indeed. This makes the Cuban missile crisis look like child's play.

J

Yup. So, I'm curious about what your roundtable of esteemed thinkers think how this whole mess will play out.

I had a long discussion with one of my best buds (he's the military buff) this morning about the whole affair.

To make a long story short, there were a few thoughts thrown about, one is he may settle for the Donbas region and call it a day, it's the industrial heart of the Ukraine. Although, even if there is a large Russian speaking population there, I don't think the majority want to be a part of Russia, so it could get interesting. Essentially, we think he's mostly interested in everything East of the Dnieper River. Also, it would, in all likelihood, have to include an official acceptance of the annexation of Crimea by the Ukraine.

Seeing as the Russians are doing so poorly on the ground and loosing so much equipment (including troops), he may just pull everything back to the homeland and just keep bombing the country from Russia (and the Sea of Azov) hoping to continue to inflict so much pain that the Ukraine would come to the table to negotiate.

But in the end we're all nervous about Putin having his back against a wall. He's very unpredictable, he's really put himself (and his country) in a very very bad spot.

J

HarthorneWingo · Post #1579 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:30 pm

thebuzzardman wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Jethrobodine123 wrote:
All of the above is true and you could add so much that is happening in the Ukraine and Russia that is not only extremely negative to Putin but also very embarrassing to him. The problem that we have now is that he is truly backed in a corner and there doesn't seem to be an off ramp out of this awful situation for him. So this makes him extremely dangerous, he is capable of anything, nothing is off the table for this madman, no weapon too horrible that he won't use. He could decide to use weapons of mass destruction at any time. Unfortunately, the reality is that we are entering an even more dangerous phase of this war, things could escalate very quickly, very quickly indeed. This makes the Cuban missile crisis look like child's play.

J

Yup. So, I'm curious about what your roundtable of esteemed thinkers think how this whole mess will play out.

Russia tries to consolidate with the landbridge area around the Crimea

You think Ukraine accepts?

thebuzzardman · Post #1580 » by **thebuzzardman** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:55 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:
thebuzzardman wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Yup. So, I'm curious about what your roundtable of esteemed thinkers think how this whole mess will play out.

Russia tries to consolidate with the landbridge area around the Crimea

You think Ukraine accepts?

Not sure.

On the one hand, that's a big strategic win for Russia, protecting the Crimea peninsula with land based access.
On the other hand, if giving enough $ and arms, Ukraine can probably win and might not settle for a "settlement"
Also, if Russia holds that land, they wind up having the rights to a HUGE untapped offshore natural gas field, which is great for Russia as it takes away Ukraine as an economic threat, but not so great for Ukraine or western oil/gas interests.