Offseason Plan

[NatP4]

In the last 10 games, Gill and Sato lead the wizards in on/off differential. We need to re-sign those guys to cheap deals. Gill is very capable as a backup PF or 5th big. Sato is very capable as a 3rd guard.

On the season, Bryant, KCP, Kuzma, and Rui are last on the team in on/off. Although, in the last 15 games, Bryant and KCP have been a lot better. Rui and Kuzma have still been horrendous.

If you wanna put a good quality team out there, you cannot continue to roll out 48 minutes of uselessness at the PF position. Avdija/Gill would be a significantly better combo at that spot.

Maybe you give Rui one more year to see if he can continue to improve, but Kuzma needs to go this off-season. Kispert has already shown to be a quality NBA player. Gotta give him starting minutes next year.

Fill in the gaps from here:

(Gap) Sato
Beal KCP
Avdija Kispert
Rui Gill
Porzingis Gafford

[nate33]

In the last 10 games, Gill and Sato lead the wizards in on/off differential. We need to re-sign those guys to cheap deals. Gill is very capable as a backup PF or 5th big. Sato is very capable as a 3rd guard.

On the season, Bryant, KCP, Kuzma, and Rui are last on the team in on/off. Although, in the last 15 games, Bryant and KCP have been a lot better. Rui and Kuzma have still been horrendous.

If you wanna put a good quality team out there, you cannot continue to roll out 48 minutes of uselessness at the PF position. Avdija/Gill would be a significantly better combo at that spot.

Maybe you give Rui one more year to see if he can continue to improve, but Kuzma needs to go this off-season. Kispert has already shown to be a quality NBA player. Gotta give him starting minutes next year.

Fill in the gaps from here:

(Gap) Sato
Beal KCP
Avdija Kispert
Rui Gill
Porzingis Gafford

I'm in favor of retaining Sato and Gill as well, but it's important to look at those on/off numbers in context.

Generally speaking, bad teams are bad because they lack top tier stars to carry their starting units. So when our starters go against opposing starters, our starters get outplayed. That dynamic is often inverted for the 2nd unit. Good teams pay a lot of money for their stars and can't afford as much good depth. Bad teams often have benches that are nearly as good as their starters. So the bad team's decent bench can often outplay a good team's bad bench.

For example:
Kispert is -0.8 as a starter and +1.6 as a reserve
Hachimura is -7.2 as a starter and -2.6 as a reserve

I'd post the numbers of some others, but very few other guys have a meaningful sample size as both a starter and a bench player.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StarterBench=Starters&TeamID=1610612764

I don't expect Sato or Gill to maintain a significantly positive on/off differential if they were to start. That doesn't mean they're not decent players. But I wouldn't be quite so quick to throw guys like Kuzma and KCP under the bus just yet. The fact is, it's much harder to post positive +/- numbers as a starter.

[9 and 20]

Gill is fairly reliable in his 5 or 10 minutes a game. I'd bet there are more guys out there like him bouncing around in some random European league. I'd bring him back too and maybe look for the guard equivalent of him overseas if we don't bring back Sato.

Assuming Beal is back, if Kuzma and KCP can be traded for a starting point guard and we draft a guy who can give decent minutes in his rookie year, we'd be all set for another run for the #8 seed and 40 wins.

[dckingsfan]

Our plan should be based on Miracles.

#1 we get Jaden Ivey
#2 we don't resign Beal and start the rebuild in earnest
#3 one of our forwards makes a HUGE jump to become a borderline All-Star
#4 we make a trade for another guard without getting hosed

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Simple moves would make me happy.

I'm not asking for much. I'm not calling for trading for LeBron James or Kevin Durant or James Harden. I'm not saying be a big spender or be a high roller.

2 simple moves is all I ask.

Sign UFA PG Tyus Jones

Draft G Dyson Daniels

That's it.

Keep Beal, Sato, Gill....

Is that too much to ask????!!

Are you going to trade our draft pick for Brogdon??? Is that your plan????


Repeat after me...

Sign UFA PG Tyus Jones!

Draft G Dyson Daniels!

CAN YOU DO THAT????????????

Starting 5:

Jones, Beal, Kuzma, Rui, Porzingis

2nd String:

Daniels, Kispert, KCP, Deni, Gafford

Rest of bench:

Satoransky, Ayayi, Todd, Gill, Carey


That's all I want to see! Can you do that?? IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK ??????

[9 and 20]

Simple moves would make me happy.

I'm not asking for much. I'm not calling for trading for LeBron James or Kevin Durant or James Harden. I'm not saying be a big spender or be a high roller.

2 simple moves is all I ask.

Sign UFA PG Tyus Jones

Draft G Dyson Daniels

That's it.

Keep Beal, Sato, Gill....

Is that too much to ask????!!

Are you going to trade our draft pick for Brogdon??? Is that your plan????


Repeat after me...

Sign UFA PG Tyus Jones!

Draft G Dyson Daniels!

CAN YOU DO THAT????????????

Starting 5:

Jones, Beal, Kuzma, Rui, Porzingis

2nd String:

Daniels, Kispert, KCP, Deni, Gafford

Rest of bench:

Satoransky, Ayayi, Todd, Gill, Carey


That's all I want to see! Can you do that?? IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK ??????

I mean, fair enough, but doing this and maxing Beal caps us out at 40-45 wins with no real way to improve from there. And that's assuming Beal bounces back and Zingus doesn't get hurt again.

I'd prefer the 'hoping for a miracle' plan, I think. Or at least take a swing for something more. Maybe not Brogdon, but something.

[ElectricMayhem]

Since this thread is looking forward to the offseason, and since your playoff hopes died at the hands of Atlanta today (RIP), I would like to offer you the opportunity to share your thoughts on the team on the GB in the Post-Mortem thread. As fans of the team, your insights and survey responses will lead to better discussion and more accurate graphs once all teams' post-mortems are complete.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2180076

[NatP4]

I would be thrilled to end up with Jones and Daniels. Eventually Daniels can grow into the starting job and Jones can be what he is, a high quality backup guard.

I don’t leave the off-season without trading Kuzma though. Get whatever draft pick(s) you can get. Draft Matteo Spagnolo with it. Bring Gill and Sato back.

[pcbothwel]

Agreed about Kuz Nat... Though I will say KCP is growing on me to retain. Beal loves him, he plays defense, won a chip, and has played the last ~25 games the way he had been playing the last 4 years.

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

[DCZards]

Agreed about Kuz Nat... Though I will say KCP is growing on me to retain. Beal loves him, he plays defense, won a chip, and has played the last ~25 games the way he had been playing the last 4 years.

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

Fultz has been on my radar screen as well. Not sure if he’s worth the money he’s getting paid, but I’ve always liked his aggressiveness and smarts when he has the ball in his hands. A below average shooter, but can both get to the rim and dish.

[Ruzious]

Agreed about Kuz Nat... Though I will say KCP is growing on me to retain. Beal loves him, he plays defense, won a chip, and has played the last ~25 games the way he had been playing the last 4 years.

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

Fultz has been on my radar screen as well. Not sure if he’s worth the money he’s getting paid, but I’ve always liked his aggressiveness and smarts when he has the ball in his hands. A below average shooter, but can both get to the rim and dish.

And Fultz fits the description of the kind of guard Beal said the team needs. But... I doubt Orlando has any interest in Kuzma, so I don't think Fultz is a realistic target for the Wiz.

[Frichuela]

Agreed about Kuz Nat... Though I will say KCP is growing on me to retain. Beal loves him, he plays defense, won a chip, and has played the last ~25 games the way he had been playing the last 4 years.

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

Fultz has been on my radar screen as well. Not sure if he’s worth the money he’s getting paid, but I’ve always liked his aggressiveness and smarts when he has the ball in his hands. A below average shooter, but can both get to the rim and dish.

And Fultz fits the description of the kind of guard Beal said the team needs. But... I doubt Orlando has any interest in Kuzma, so I don't think Fultz is a realistic target for the Wiz.

Agreed. Unless we can find a third party that gets Kuzma and sends some value ORL way. Maybe Utah?

[Ruzious]

Fultz has been on my radar screen as well. Not sure if he’s worth the money he’s getting paid, but I’ve always liked his aggressiveness and smarts when he has the ball in his hands. A below average shooter, but can both get to the rim and dish.

And Fultz fits the description of the kind of guard Beal said the team needs. But... I doubt Orlando has any interest in Kuzma, so I don't think Fultz is a realistic target for the Wiz.

Agreed. Unless we can find a third party that gets Kuzma and sends some value ORL way. Maybe Utah?

This works in the Trade Checker: Kuzma to Charlotte, Oubre to Orlando, Fultz to Washington. Getting Kuzma allows Charlotte to move Bridges to SF, and at 6'6 - he really should be a SF. Every team probably thinks they can get more out of Oubre's upside, and Orlando is probably no different, and he's a better fit for their roster than Fultz is. For Washington, if Fultz develops a solid 3 point shot, he becomes a valuable young player.

[Frichuela]

And Fultz fits the description of the kind of guard Beal said the team needs. But... I doubt Orlando has any interest in Kuzma, so I don't think Fultz is a realistic target for the Wiz.

Agreed. Unless we can find a third party that gets Kuzma and sends some value ORL way. Maybe Utah?

This works in the Trade Checker: Kuzma to Charlotte, Oubre to Orlando, Fultz to Washington. Getting Kuzma allows Charlotte to move Bridges to SF, and at 6'6 - he really should be a SF. Every team probably thinks they can get more out of Oubre's upside, and Orlando is probably no different, and he's a better fit for their roster than Fultz is. For Washington, if Fultz develops a solid 3 point shot, he becomes a valuable young player.

I like this for all. And if need be, CHA can always send some additional value (e.g. a second rounder).

[nate33]

And Fultz fits the description of the kind of guard Beal said the team needs. But... I doubt Orlando has any interest in Kuzma, so I don't think Fultz is a realistic target for the Wiz.

Agreed. Unless we can find a third party that gets Kuzma and sends some value ORL way. Maybe Utah?

This works in the Trade Checker: Kuzma to Charlotte, Oubre to Orlando, Fultz to Washington. Getting Kuzma allows Charlotte to move Bridges to SF, and at 6'6 - he really should be a SF. Every team probably thinks they can get more out of Oubre's upside, and Orlando is probably no different, and he's a better fit for their roster than Fultz is. For Washington, if Fultz develops a solid 3 point shot, he becomes a valuable young player.

I'm pretty lukewarm on Fultz. He is a good defender, but offensively he is a problem because he can't shoot and he's not particularly adept at taking care of the ball either (just over 2:1 A/TO ratio).

He can get you 20 points and 8 assists per 36 with bad efficiency and 3+ turnovers. Do you want that, or do you want Sato's 9 points and 8 assists on good efficiency with less than 2 turnovers? At least Sato has the decency to not shoot the ball except when it's a makeable layup or floater, or a wide open jumper late in the shot clock. Also, Fultz costs $16.5M a year while Sato costs the vet minimum.

I think Fultz shot is broken. I don't ever see him developing a 3-point shot. He is a younger Elfrid Payton. I don't want a guy who, for the next 4 years, we will be saying, "he'd be awesome if he only developed a jumper".

[DCZards]

Nate, I understand your concerns about Fultz, especially his price tag and mediocre shooting (although I’m not convinced that his shot is broken).

I also value Sato and his efficiency. But, let’s face it, he’s not a quality starting PG and one of the reasons he’s efficient is because his offensive game is extremely limited. Sato rarely puts pressure on the defense as a threat to score. And that’s not going to change.

At least with Fultz, you’re getting a young player with much more potential upside than Sato. But, yes, $16 mil is a lot to pay.

[nate33]

Nate, I understand your concerns about Fultz, especially his price tag and mediocre shooting (although I’m not convinced that his shot is broken).

I also value Sato and his efficiency. But, let’s face it, he’s not a quality starting PG and one of the reasons he’s efficient is because his offensive game is extremely limited. Sato rarely puts pressure on the defense as a threat to score. And that’s not going to change.

At least with Fultz, you’re getting a young player with much more potential upside than Sato. But, yes, $16 mil is a lot to pay.

I agree that Sato is not a starting caliber PG because of his inability to put pressure on the defense. But I fail to see why Fultz is better. The fact that he is young doesn't intrigue me much. I don't really see this "upside" you are talking about. He has been in the league for 5 years already. He's not going to improve all that much from here. Even with the injury problems, he still has had plenty of time to work on his stand-still 3-pointer, and it still sucks.

Basically, we can have Sato AND Kuzma for the same cost as Fultz. I'd much prefer the former.

[Ruzious]

I don't whether Fultz' shot is broken or not - but it's a valid concern. It definitely has to improve. If he just gets it up to 35% percent on reasonable volume, I think he's a legit starting PG - even with the high t/o rate. Let's face it, we're not going to get a perfect 23 year old PG for Kyle Kuzma with an expiring contract. Injuries have likely been part of the cause of Fultz' slow development - seeing as he's only played in 126 NBA games - he's had only 1 season with over 19 games played - after being the first pick in the 2017 draft. Kuzma was 27th. We traded the 22nd pick to Brooklyn - who picked Jarrett Allen.

[badinage]

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

Kuz for Fultz? And what else? That can’t be the extent of it. Kuz has been putting up 20 and 9 or 10 a game, over a significant stretch of games, while much of that time being the focus for the defense. In Fultz, we’re looking at a guard who can’t shoot, who has barely played, and who seems like a whole lot of enh.

Kuz for Dejounte Murray, now that’s looking more even.

[nate33]

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

Kuz for Fultz? And what else? That can’t be the extent of it. Kuz has been putting up 20 and 9 or 10 a game, over a significant stretch of games, while much of that time being the focus for the defense. In Fultz, we’re looking at a guard who can’t shoot, who has barely played, and who seems like a whole lot of enh.

Kuz for Dejounte Murray, now that’s looking more even.

I agree that Kuz for Fultz is an overpay. But Kuz for Murray is a massive underpay. San Antonio would laugh us off the phone.