2022 NBA Draft Class: Boom or Bust?

[ecuhus1981]

The more I look at prospects from this draft class, the less sure I am about the draft class overall.

The consensus top 3 (Banchero, Smith and Holmgren) each have significant question marks in projecting their potential:

Can Jabari lift his ball handling and 2pt FG%? Or is he a taller Kyle Korver (minus the Tiger Beat hairstyle)?

Can Paolo lift his teammates and AST% in crunch time? Or is he merely a stat-stuffing mercenary?

Can Chet lift a bench press bar, and his non-transition 3pt%? Or will he be another Bender/Bol/Poku, who can't leverage their immense gifts at the pro level due to their fragile frames?

Beyond that, I'm constantly second guessing some of my favorite sleeper guys. Is Roddy a deluxe Royce O'Neal, or a miniature Corliss Williamson? Is Tari Eason the next Kawhi Leonard, or Tyrus Thomas?

I'm sure the truth is somewhere in between, but what fun is that answer??? I want definitive answers! Seriously, though every draft is a crapshoot, this one seems tougher to predict than any in recent memory. So, what's YOUR prediction?

[God Squad]

I personally don't like, but I've seen some that do. Masai Ujiri traded out of the first round for an early second rounder, which leads me to believe the talent gap from say 20-35 isn't that massive and probably all in their same tier.

[babyjax13]

I don't have it as historically bad, but it is well below average. The top 4 is fairly deep with 3 guys you would love to get 2nd in any draft (Chet, Paolo, Smith) and one guy you'd love to get 3rd or 4th (Ivey) but there is no clear top prospect, or anyone that would have gone first in any draft from 2014-2021. I think the nearest comp is probably the 2010 draft. Wall and Turner you would have loved top three in most drafts (obviously Turner did not work out), and Favors and Cousins you would like top 5, but there was no "this guy looks like he's definitely an all-NBA caliber talent" type of guy in the draft. Retrospectively we could say the same about the Wiggins draft, albeit I think everyone knew Embiid was the best talent in the draft. I assumed Wiggins and Parker would be good volume scorers, I think most people did, and neither lived up to the hype (Parker obviously had injuries, but also limitations in his game we should have paid better attention to).

[SelfishPlayer]

Interesting topic. This 2022 NBA draft appears to be historically unique. I believe that there are too many legitimate NBA prospects for one draft. I believe it's because of the 2020 health issue combined with the perceived weakness at the absolute top perhaps influencing high schoolers to reclassify down a year targeting this draft. I'm only talking about talent playing domestically. The international guys may further make this draft superior. This is the draft to have multiple picks.

[Roger Murdock]

It’s a bad draft for primary playmakers / ball handlers but has a lot of interesting players who will fill roles and help teams win

[NYPiston]

On paper, it looks like a below average draft not necessarily due to lack of talent but due to lack of polished talent.
You look at guys like Holmgren, Smith, Ivey and Sharpe? who have all the talent in the world but it's a lot of raw talent. I'd say that Eason, Griffin, Duren and Brown fall into that category too, to a lesser extent.
Lots of "toolsy" players with high upside but lots of question marks also, moreso than usual for top prospects IMO.

No real Euro talent also brings this draft down a bit, strong big man class, weak guard class, the depth looks "ok". It really does seem like a boom/bust draft, not many sure things to bank on but plenty of high upside guys.

[Big J]

It's so awful. Only tanking teams are talking themselves into the hypothetical ceilings of the top guys.

[clyde21]

it's not a terrible class, in terms of raw talent probably around average, problem is the archetypes themselves, not a lot of projectable lead guards, not a lot of wings, not a lot of great shooters, a lot of players need to be in very specific positions and spots in the NBA to reach their medium to high outcomes.

also doesn't help the international class fell flat on its face in a lot of ways, guys like Nzosa, Jovic and Dieng were supposed to have prop up this top10 a little bit and none of the three really developed the way people were expecting.

there is also a dramatic drop in talent after the 3rd pick, not a whole lot separating the 4th best guy and the say the 12th best guy.

[EMG518]

I like the class personally, I just don't think it's very deep.

I imagine the top 5 are Chet, Jabari, Paolo, Ivey, Sharpe in no particular order. I have a high degree of confidence in the group and think they are as good as just about any top 5 picks in recent drafts.

I think there are another 5-10 guys who could be good players as well potebtially.

I just don't get why people are down on it.

[Big J]

Every single one of the top guys have huge flaws in their games. There isn’t that no brainer Zion/Luka type of guy this year.

[The Moose]

it's not a terrible class, in terms of raw talent probably around average, problem is the archetypes themselves, not a lot of projectable lead guards, not a lot of wings, not a lot of great shooters, a lot of players need to be in very specific positions and spots in the NBA to reach their medium to high outcomes.

also doesn't help the international class fell flat on its face in a lot of ways, guys like Nzosa, Jovic and Dieng were supposed to have prop up this top10 a little bit and none of the three really developed the way people were expecting.

there is also a dramatic drop in talent after the 3rd pick, not a whole lot separating the 4th best guy and the say the 12th best guy.

this is where I'm at, if I had the 4th pick I would swing for the fences on Sharpe or try to trade down.
Let someone take Ivey if they want, but I'd rather 2 picks in that 8-14 range rather than 1 pick 4-7

[clyde21]

it's not a terrible class, in terms of raw talent probably around average, problem is the archetypes themselves, not a lot of projectable lead guards, not a lot of wings, not a lot of great shooters, a lot of players need to be in very specific positions and spots in the NBA to reach their medium to high outcomes.

also doesn't help the international class fell flat on its face in a lot of ways, guys like Nzosa, Jovic and Dieng were supposed to have prop up this top10 a little bit and none of the three really developed the way people were expecting.

there is also a dramatic drop in talent after the 3rd pick, not a whole lot separating the 4th best guy and the say the 12th best guy.

this is where I'm at, if I had the 4th pick I would swing for the fences on Sharpe or try to trade down.
Let someone take Ivey if they want, but I'd rather 2 picks in that 8-14 range rather than 1 pick 4-7

yezzir, that's exactly why I have Sharpe 4th.

[tmorgan]

It’s a mystery class. Which of these guys will develop their strengths, minimize their flaws?

Can Chet put on enough weight and strength to play down low? He’s gonna get murdered on contested boards.
Can Jabari improve his handle and attack close outs? Will he ever be a decent triple threat?
Can Paolo defend and be an effective point forward, or maybe be willing to bang more?
Can Ivey shoot contested pro threes and improve his playmaking beyond the basic?
What does Sharpe look like against real competition? What is myth and what is real?

And that’s just the possible first five picks. Questions abound. Jobs will be secured and lost on this draft, it’s gonna be entertaining for sure.

[tmorgan]

Oh, and to add… I know it’s easier after seeing a season of pro ball from the 2021 class, but I’m thinking I wouldn’t trade Cade, Scottie, Mobley…. or Green, or Franz for the #1 overall pick this year. And it’s not entirely clear I’d trade Giddey or Kuminga either. That to me means this year is def a little sketchy.

Ehhh, I’ll back off a little. I do like Paolo. Might do Franz, Giddey, or Kuminga for Paolo. But def not the other ones mentioned.

[Magic_Johnny12]

Oh, and to add… I know it’s easier after seeing a season of pro ball from the 2021 class, but I’m thinking I wouldn’t trade Cade, Scottie, Mobley…. or Green, or Franz for the #1 overall pick this year. And it’s not entirely clear I’d trade Giddey or Kuminga either. That to me means this year is def a little sketchy.

Ehhh, I’ll back off a little. I do like Paolo. Might do Franz, Giddey, or Kuminga for Paolo. But def not the other ones mentioned.

Orlando would not trade Franz for this years #1.

There is literally no major holes/concerns in his game like most of the top-5 prospects in this draft.

[JRoy]

Not the best poll.

Might be more like the 2006 draft.

[tmorgan]

Oh, and to add… I know it’s easier after seeing a season of pro ball from the 2021 class, but I’m thinking I wouldn’t trade Cade, Scottie, Mobley…. or Green, or Franz for the #1 overall pick this year. And it’s not entirely clear I’d trade Giddey or Kuminga either. That to me means this year is def a little sketchy.

Ehhh, I’ll back off a little. I do like Paolo. Might do Franz, Giddey, or Kuminga for Paolo. But def not the other ones mentioned.

Orlando would not trade Franz for this years #1.

There is literally no major holes/concerns in his game like most of the top-5 prospects in this draft.

I don’t think Paolo has any major holes. I’m just… not sure what he is as a pro. I don’t think anyone is.