better player at peak: durant vs wade

[falcolombardi]

since it became a debate in the wade longevity thread why not make it a thread

who do you think was the most valuable player at his best?

[mdonnelly1989]

What Wade did in 06 Trumps anything that KD did, especially considering KD's most productive stretch came surrounded around Curry, Klay and Draymond.

Defensively KD could do some things better than Wade, but Wade was clearly more disruptive on Defense. Him and Lebron had some of the best defenses in those early 2010s ERA and it wasn't just Lebron.

Although KD had more years closer to his prime than Wade did which I believe was 06 and 09 for Wade.

KDs peak was probably 2014, and the peak of his prime was 2017 - 2019

1 Year Peak - Wade 97 (2006)
1 Year Peak - KD 96 (2014)

Prime Wade 95
Prime KD - 96 (And KD is still going)

[70sFan]

It's very interesting, but tough comparison. I usually go with Wade over Durant for peaks, but KD has his arguments as well. He's a better off-ball player and his shooting makes him extremely dangerous in any role.

That said, I find Wade to be much better playmaker and on-ball player. I also don't see Durant's defensive advantage (if such exist) as meaningful at all. I also think that Wade's portability concerns are overstated - he played next to past prime Shaq (possibly the worst fit you can imagine for him) and still made it work.

[feyki]

I have 17,18 and 21 Durant around the 15th peak place all time, same with Garnett and Davis and probably bit higher than Wade. Better offensive player and very close defensive player since he improved on his rim protection with the GSW.

[nate33]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

[No-more-rings]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

Since i assume you're talking about 2014, his notable playoff decline that year bares mentioning. His scoring dropped to 29.6 ppg and ts% down to 57. Per from 29.8 to 22.6. BPM from 10.4 to 6.4. His team nearly got knocked out by the Grizzlies in the 1st round, and KD struggled mightily against one on one coverage from Tony Allen.

It amazes me how much stock people continue to put into regular season performances. Durant's regular season that year wasn't even better than Wade's best unless scoring is the end all measure.

[McBubbles]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

Serge Ibaka put up 15 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks a game on 58.0TS%, whilst having the very valuable intangible offensive effect of stretching the floor from the 4 and pulling opposing bigs out of the paint (shot 47% from midrange on 5 attempts per game, 49% from 10-16ft, 46% from 16-24ft) whilst also making All D 1st team. For what it's worth he was also ranked 20th in PI RAPM. That's higher than Dwight, Bosh, Garnett, Tony Parker, DPOY winner Joakim Noah etc that season.

KD was amazing that season but to act like Ibaka was "barely average" is ridiculous.

[nate33]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

Serge Ibaka put up 15 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks a game on 58.0TS%, whilst having the very valuable intangible offensive effect of stretching the floor from the 4 and pulling opposing bigs out of the paint (shot 47% from midrange on 5 attempts per game, 49% from 10-16ft, 46% from 16-24ft) whilst also making All D 1st team. For what it's worth he was also ranked 20th in PI RAPM. That's higher than Dwight, Bosh, Garnett, Tony Parker, DPOY winner Joakim Noah etc that season.

KD was amazing that season but to act like Ibaka was "barely average" is ridiculous.

Fair enough. Ibaka was good, particularly on D. But Durant had to handle practically all of the offensive load. To do so with such efficiency was one of the best single-season offensive performances in league history.

[nate33]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

Since i assume you're talking about 2014, his notable playoff decline that year bares mentioning. His scoring dropped to 29.6 ppg and ts% down to 57. Per from 29.8 to 22.6. BPM from 10.4 to 6.4. His team nearly got knocked out by the Grizzlies in the 1st round, and KD struggled mightily against one on one coverage from Tony Allen.

It amazes me how much stock people continue to put into regular season performances. Durant's regular season that year wasn't even better than Wade's best unless scoring is the end all measure.

Nearly everyone declines in efficiency in the playoffs - particularly when you play the 3rd best defense (Memphis) and the 6th best defense (San Antonio). There's nothing wrong with 30 ppg on a TS% of .570.

And "nearly getting knocked out" isn't the same as actually getting knocked out. Durant led his team the Conference Finals, losing only to the eventual champions. Wade didn't even get out of the 1st round in his two peak seasons.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

Since i assume you're talking about 2014, his notable playoff decline that year bares mentioning. His scoring dropped to 29.6 ppg and ts% down to 57. Per from 29.8 to 22.6. BPM from 10.4 to 6.4. His team nearly got knocked out by the Grizzlies in the 1st round, and KD struggled mightily against one on one coverage from Tony Allen.

It amazes me how much stock people continue to put into regular season performances. Durant's regular season that year wasn't even better than Wade's best unless scoring is the end all measure.

Nearly everyone declines in efficiency in the playoffs - particularly when you play the 3rd best defense (Memphis) and the 6th best defense (San Antonio). There's nothing wrong with 30 ppg on a TS% of .570.

And "nearly getting knocked out" isn't the same as actually getting knocked out. Durant led his team the Conference Finals, losing only to the eventual champions. Wade didn't even get out of the 1st round in his two peak seasons.

"Durant’s postseasons haven’t been quite as stellar. During his peak years in Oklahoma City (2013-16), his postseason scoring efficiency trailed way off, down to +2 percent, orders of magnitude below his regular season average of +10 percent. His creation suffered in the playoffs as well, dropping from around 10 per 100 to 7 per 100 in 48 postseason games during those years. As discussed throughout this series, most players dip slightly in the playoffs, but this falloff during the heart of his prime is somewhat worrisome, and suggests he forced more and created less. (His rate of assisted field goals also dropped in the postseason during this stretch)." -

https://backpicks.com/2018/03/05/backpicks-goat-26-kevin-durant/

This video also notes Durant would have among the largest offensive declines before heading to GSW

Watch on YouTube

;t=2s

[Im Your Father]

It's very interesting, but tough comparison. I usually go with Wade over Durant for peaks, but KD has his arguments as well. He's a better off-ball player and his shooting makes him extremely dangerous in any role.

That said, I find Wade to be much better playmaker and on-ball player. I also don't see Durant's defensive advantage (if such exist) as meaningful at all. I also think that Wade's portability concerns are overstated - he played next to past prime Shaq (possibly the worst fit you can imagine for him) and still made it work.

Wade wasn't Durant as an off-ball player, and I'd never try to argue that, but I do actually think he was a great cutter and quite useful as an off-ball player.

Despite being a classic lead guard, I don't really see him as one of the James Harden stands around types at all - I appreciate that this isn't what you implied at all - just wanted to plug something I feel like people often forget about him.

[Im Your Father]

Durant pretty easily IMO. Even before he joined Golden State, Durant was amazing. In 2013-14, he led the league in scoring at 32 points per game on a preposterous .635 TS% while also posting 7.4 boards and 5.5 assists. They won 59 games with their 2nd best player (Westbrook) missing half the season. (They were 25-11 without Westbrook, a 57-win pace.) The next best player was Serge Ibaka, barely an average starter.

I can think of no other player in history who was so capable as a first option shot creator and as a complementary off ball scorer. His skill set is probably the most portable in history.

Since i assume you're talking about 2014, his notable playoff decline that year bares mentioning. His scoring dropped to 29.6 ppg and ts% down to 57. Per from 29.8 to 22.6. BPM from 10.4 to 6.4. His team nearly got knocked out by the Grizzlies in the 1st round, and KD struggled mightily against one on one coverage from Tony Allen.

It amazes me how much stock people continue to put into regular season performances. Durant's regular season that year wasn't even better than Wade's best unless scoring is the end all measure.

Nearly everyone declines in efficiency in the playoffs - particularly when you play the 3rd best defense (Memphis) and the 6th best defense (San Antonio). There's nothing wrong with 30 ppg on a TS% of .570.

And "nearly getting knocked out" isn't the same as actually getting knocked out. Durant led his team the Conference Finals, losing only to the eventual champions. Wade didn't even get out of the 1st round in his two peak seasons.

Wade's supporting cast was preposterously bad in 2009 and 2010 though, nor were they even a particularly good fit around him. No player in history was likely to take those teams to the WCF (although 2009 vs the Hawks series was definitely winnable).

I'll definitely that Durant was a much more portable player though, although Durant is really one of the all time greats on that front.

[VanWest82]

Interesting that nba shot charts has Wade and Durant's RAPM as essentially the same in 2010 when Wade was only a year removed from his peak and Durant was years away from his.

I'll admit the stats argument for Wade is a little better than I was initially giving him credit for though the eye test argument for Durant is GS is very difficult to ignore. Yes, it was perhaps easier for him in a sense playing with so many other good players though I don't think he gets anywhere near enough credit for how much he adapted his game to that system which was built around Curry's strengths first and foremost.

Wade was always an overrated defender in my eyes. He was the king of not getting back on defense while he argued with refs over missed calls. But he was also an underrated play maker and has a clear advantage over Durant in that aspect.

But beyond the massive advantage in efficiency that KD holds, I just think his defense with Warriors was tremendous and outdid anything Wade ever showed, especially those first two years. In 16/17, he defended 13 shots per game and held opponents to -6.0% below their expected average. That differential is a Gobert-like number. And everyone goes nuts over these versatile, defend-one-through-five forwards, and yet for some reason KD never gets any credit for that. It's like his entire Warriors tenure gets dismissed because they were still good with Curry on and Durant off. It's just such a low res analysis that ignores what KD actually did on the court.

DWade was definitely better in the late 00s than he gets credit for (though perhaps not as good in 06 as he gets credit for), but KD's ultra-efficient two way impact from 16-19 is my answer for who had the best peak.

[No-more-rings]

Interesting that nba shot charts has Wade and Durant's RAPM as essentially the same in 2010 when Wade was only a year removed from his peak and Durant was years away from his.

Is that the one that has Durant above Lebron? I would either chalk it up to noisiness of single year RAPM, or just questionable calculations. Google Docs has Wade 2nd that year behind Lebron and Kd 12th. That seems like a more accurate depiction of their respective impact, though i do think KD was probably top 10 that year in the league.

[VanWest82]

Interesting that nba shot charts has Wade and Durant's RAPM as essentially the same in 2010 when Wade was only a year removed from his peak and Durant was years away from his.

Is that the one that has Durant above Lebron? I would either chalk it up to noisiness of single year RAPM, or just questionable calculations. Google Docs has Wade 2nd that year behind Lebron and Kd 12th. That seems like a more accurate depiction of their respective impact, though i do think KD was probably top 10 that year in the league.

No Lebron is 1st, Wade is 3rd, and Durant is 4th. Honestly, I find it so hard to trust any of these RAPM sources, that google doc sheet most of all. At least the gitlab one has a white paper, though no priors.

2010 on / net on-off

Lebron +11.5 / +16.8
Wade +6.7 / +13.5
Durant +7.1 / +16.5

Checks out to me.

[No-more-rings]

Interesting that nba shot charts has Wade and Durant's RAPM as essentially the same in 2010 when Wade was only a year removed from his peak and Durant was years away from his.

Is that the one that has Durant above Lebron? I would either chalk it up to noisiness of single year RAPM, or just questionable calculations. Google Docs has Wade 2nd that year behind Lebron and Kd 12th. That seems like a more accurate depiction of their respective impact, though i do think KD was probably top 10 that year in the league.

No Lebron is 1st, Wade is 3rd, and Durant is 4th. Honestly, I find it so hard to trust any of these RAPM sources, that google doc sheet most of all. At least the gitlab one has a white paper, though no priors.

2010 on / net on-off

Lebron +11.5 / +16.8
Wade +6.7 / +13.5
Durant +7.1 / +16.5

Checks out to me.

Not sure what you mean by white paper, but the gitlab is definitely less reliable. It makes Nash look terrible in his peak years(05-07), among other things. That on/off for Durant in 2010 is definitely an outlier, i mean if you go by that it was better than any year in his career. There’s definitely no reason to think Durant was close to Wade in terms of player ability.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Wade certainly seems to have the bigger impact footprint between the two in terms of metrics that have full-season data for their peaks.

Wade
PIPM-7.24
RAPTOR-9.39
BPM-10.6
TWPR-70.68
Scaled APM/g-7.3

KD
PIPM (Only have up through 2020)-6.15
RAPTOR-7.54
BPM-10.2
TWPR (Only have up through 2020)-67.61
Scaled APM/g (only goes up through 17)-6.3

The numbers generally suggest that Wade at his best was more valuable to his team than Durant was to his. However, opinions may vary if you prefer extra shooting or someone who can take less dribbles to get their points. However, I am partial to someone who can be a main creator for their team, and make decisions. I think Wade's ability to always find his way to the rim is MJ-esque and I favor his package over Durant's.

Also Wade seems to be a much less error prone defender than Durant, while also just in general being more active. So while defense could go either way, I think I might lean Wade on that side of the ball.

P.S.-Darko has something that goes back to 1980 in terms of attempting to evaluate projected peak performance going forward (looks at all of a player's past games and takes the into account)...and Wade looks great, among the very greatest peaks dating back to at least 1980

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

[falcolombardi]

Wade certainly seems to have the bigger impact footprint between the two in terms of metrics that have full-season data for their peaks.

Wade
PIPM-7.24
RAPTOR-9.39
BPM-10.6
TWPR-70.68
Scaled APM/g-7.3

KD
PIPM (Only have up through 2020)-6.15
RAPTOR-7.54
BPM-10.2
TWPR (Only have up through 2020)-67.61
Scaled APM/g (only goes up through 17)-6.3

The numbers generally suggest that Wade at his best was more valuable to his team than Durant was to his. However, opinions may vary if you prefer extra shooting or someone who can take less dribbles to get their points. However, I am partial to someone who can be a main creator for their team, and make decisions. I think Wade's ability to always find his way to the rim is MJ-esque and I favor his package over Durant's.

Also Wade seems to be a much less error prone defender than Durant, while also just in general being more active. So while defense could go either way, I think I might lean Wade on that side of the ball.

there is an argument to be made that we have gone so far into giving proper respect to portability/off ball impact that we may ve starting to underrate what players can do with the ball in their hands

wade is Up there with almost anyone in that department

[Djoker]

It's not a slam dunk or anything but I would go with Wade. When it comes down to it both Wade and KD are elite scoring machines at their peaks. Wade's on-ball game is more unstoppable and consistent due to slashing and KD is the much better off-ball player because of shooting and has superior portability in general. It's a slight edge to KD in scoring overall but not enough to overcome a major playmaking edge for Wade. And defensively I'd say the margin of error in their valuations makes it hard to give a decisive edge in either direction.

As for when their peaks were I would say 2006/2009/2010 for Wade and 2017/2018/2019 for KD. I think earlier KD circa 2014 wasn't quite as refined and it's evident in his decline in the postseason.