Offseason Plan

[NatP4]

I like Fultz as an upside play, but the trade would be Rui to Orlando. That’s a team in full rebuild mode.

I still like the Rui for Jalen Suggs deal more, but I also don’t think Orlando will give up Suggs that quickly.

[FAH1223]

I like Fultz as an upside play, but the trade would be Rui to Orlando. That’s a team in full rebuild mode.

I still like the Rui for Jalen Suggs deal more, but I also don’t think Orlando will give up Suggs that quickly.

Suggs has been God Awful

None of these ORL PGs can shoot

[pcbothwel]

Again, Im banging the drum for Kuz for Fultz. He'll be 24 next year and prime to breakthrough. I very much see a Dinwiddie/Murray hybrid that may not very efficient, but will play elite defense and elite PnR.

Kuz for Fultz? And what else? That can’t be the extent of it. Kuz has been putting up 20 and 9 or 10 a game, over a significant stretch of games, while much of that time being the focus for the defense. In Fultz, we’re looking at a guard who can’t shoot, who has barely played, and who seems like a whole lot of enh.

Kuz for Dejounte Murray, now that’s looking more even.

I agree that Kuz for Fultz is an overpay. But Kuz for Murray is a massive underpay. San Antonio would laugh us off the phone.

I had previously mentioned a Kuz + 55 for Fultz + 35.
And yeah, SAS would only take Murray for Kuz swap if we included our pick.

Again, Im not sold on Fultz so much as I think he could be had for minimal value given his contract and Orlando's glut of guards.

Lastly, I could certainly see them moving off Suggs for decent value... or if they are sitting at 4 with Ivey number 1 on their board.

[NatP4]

I like Fultz as an upside play, but the trade would be Rui to Orlando. That’s a team in full rebuild mode.

I still like the Rui for Jalen Suggs deal more, but I also don’t think Orlando will give up Suggs that quickly.

Suggs has been God Awful

None of these ORL PGs can shoot

Kyle Lowry couldn’t shoot at all until his 4th or 5th NBA season. Suggs has the work ethic, I think he’ll be fine. Emphasis on think.

[doclinkin]

And yeah, SAS would only take Murray for Kuz swap if we included our pick.

And even then. Pop loves Murray. Has said this crop of young cats is the reason he hasn't retired.

[NatP4]

I’m not a salary cap guy at all, but can we just decline the options on Ish and KCP and just sign Brunson straight up before re-signing Beal with bird rights?

Brunson is a lot better than Tyus Jones.

[FAH1223]

I’m not a salary cap guy at all, but can we just decline the options on Ish and KCP and just sign Brunson straight up before re-signing Beal with bird rights?

Brunson is a lot better than Tyus Jones.

Nope!

Cap holds.

[9 and 20]

Any chance we can swap Beal, KCP, Kuzma for Donovan Mitchell? Would have to be some kind 3-way trade since there is pretty much zero chance Beal would want to play in Utah. Kuzma went to college in Utah, and KCP and Beal seem like a package deal. Utah would probably love some draft picks and Kuzma in exchange for Mitchell if Mitchell decides he wants out.

Utah sens Mitchell to DC.
DC sends Beal/KCP to third team, Kuzma to Utah.
Third team sends draft picks to Utah.

Maybe Cleveland, if Beal would go there? Not sure Boston has the juice to pull it off.

[nate33]

Any chance we can swap Beal, KCP, Kuzma for Donovan Mitchell? Would have to be some kind 3-way trade since there is pretty much zero chance Beal would want to play in Utah. Kuzma went to college in Utah, and KCP and Beal seem like a package deal. Utah would probably love some draft picks and Kuzma in exchange for Mitchell if Mitchell decides he wants out.

Utah sens Mitchell to DC.
DC sends Beal/KCP to third team, Kuzma to Utah.
Third team sends draft picks to Utah.

Maybe Cleveland, if Beal would go there? Not sure Boston has the juice to pull it off.

It would be sweet. But I really don't think we have the pieces to get Mitchell.

The real issue is that I can't find a team that would trade much value for Beal. And any team that would would rather try and trade directly for Mitchell.

Sheppard should really reconsider offering Beal anything close to the supermax. Why pay him $45M a year when i don't think anyone else would pay $35M a year?

[payitforward]

Neither Kuzma nor Fultz is a particularly good player. But, at least Kuzma can give you minutes if you need them. Fultz has averaged 500 minutes a year over a 6 year career.

In any case, even when he does play, he doesn't move the needle. I'd be happy to trade Kuzma for a R2 pick if it were possible. I don't see how you'd get more than that -- can't really understand how badinage can imagine he'd bring Dejounte Murray.

In any case, isn't this mostly just re-arranging the deck chairs? If you have a bad team, which we do, it's 95% b/c you have bad players. Since you can't count on trading bad players for good players, I don't see how trades will help us improve -- at least not in the near term.

I guess the only possibility is if you trade older players for younger ones -- who may develop -- or for picks. It's hard to think about Fultz in that way (or for a trading partner to think of Kuzma in that way).

Truth is that, despite the undeniable good things Tommy has done, we have missed so many opportunities to improve since he took over that we aren't in much better shape now than we were then. To understand what I mean, all you have to do is look at Memphis' record in 2018-19 & ours, virtually identical, & look at the moves they've made since then compared to ours.

edit: in fairness, they weren't carrying the boat anchor contract we were carrying, their new FO didn't lack R2 picks the way Tommy did, & the ping pong balls gave them Ja.

[payitforward]

Along the same lines, there is no point whatever in targeting either Jalen Brunson or Tyus Jones.

Not b/c they're bad, far from it. Because they are known to be good, those guys will get deals at their market price. They will be paid what they are worth.

If you have a team consisting of 15 players all of whom are paid what they are worth, then (in a capped league) you will have an average team. Period. This is not a fact about basketball players or even about basketball -- it's a fact about how markets work. OTOH, I guess that would be an improvement, since over the last many decades we have not been an average team.

Still, building a good team, an above average team, in a capped league isn't about "choosing the best players." It's about "choosing the best players for the amount of money you are able to spend."

In other words, it's about having players who are worth more than what they are paid. Mostly, those are either true superstars or they are young players whose contracts are artificially low compared to how well they play, either because the CBA holds them down (i.e. rookie contracts) or for some other reason.

[dckingsfan]

To that end, we are a bad team and Beal playing well only gets us to the play-in, IMO. I would say let Beal walk and Ish as well.

That gets us to the below chart. Clearly KCP isn't in our window. So trade him for younger players that could develop. We will have a first and second round pick. It still gives you only 6 serviceable players plus your first round pick for next season (Todd & Carey don't look to be playable anytime soon, IMO). So, the problem with a rebuild - we don't have the assets - and that would panic Ted in a big way.

So, let the panic off-season commence.

Code: Select all

Isaiah Todd   20
Deni Avdija   21
Vernon Carey Jr.   21
Corey Kispert   23
Daniel Gafford   23
Rui Hachimura   24
Kristaps Porziņģis   26
Kyle Kuzma   26
KCP   29

[DCZards]

All this talk about how “bad” this current Zards team will be going forward fails to take into account what this team might be able to accomplish with Beal and Porzingis on the court together; the continued improvement of Rui, Kispert and Deni; the experience and leadership of Kuz and KCP; the addition of a quality PG like Brunson or Jones; and the addition of a lottery pick.

None of us really knows how good (or bad) that team might be.

[nate33]

Along the same lines, there is no point whatever in targeting either Jalen Brunson or Tyus Jones.

Not b/c they're bad, far from it. Because they are known to be good, those guys will get deals at their market price. They will be paid what they are worth.

It takes a below-the-cap team to pay those guys above the MLE. How many below-the-cap teams are in need of a point guard and are willing to pay more than an MLE salary?

As far as I know, the likely under-the-cap teams are:

San Antonio
Orlando
Detroit
Indiana
Portland
Memphis

All of them except Detroit and Memphis are 2-deep in quality ball-handling guards. And Memphis won't be paying a backup PG more than the MLE when they have Ja playing 36 minutes and they need to plan for Ja's max contract plus big contracts for Brooks and Clarke next year. And I question whether Detroit will spend more than the MLE on Jones either. The big advantage of Cunningham is he gives you a PG in a SF's body, which allows you to play big and switch everything on D. Signing a diminutive PG undermines that advantage.

Basically, I figure someone signs Brunson or works out a S&T for more than the MLE, but I don't know if there is a demand to pay more than MLE money for Jones - a 26-year-old, 6-foot-tall PG.

[payitforward]

Along the same lines, there is no point whatever in targeting either Jalen Brunson or Tyus Jones.

Not b/c they're bad, far from it. Because they are known to be good, those guys will get deals at their market price. They will be paid what they are worth.

It takes a below-the-cap team to pay those guys above the MLE. How many below-the-cap teams are in need of a point guard and are willing to pay more than an MLE salary?

As far as I know, the likely under-the-cap teams are:

San Antonio
Orlando
Detroit
Indiana
Portland
Memphis

All of them except Detroit and Memphis are 2-deep in quality ball-handling guards. And Memphis won't be paying a backup PG more than the MLE when they have Ja playing 36 minutes and they need to plan for Ja's max contract plus big contracts for Brooks and Clarke next year. And I question whether Detroit will spend more than the MLE on Jones either. The big advantage of Cunningham is he gives you a PG in a SF's body, which allows you to play big and switch everything on D. Signing a diminutive PG undermines that advantage.

Basically, I figure someone signs Brunson or works out a S&T for more than the MLE, but I don't know if there is a demand to pay more than MLE money for Jones - a 26-year-old, 6-foot-tall PG.

Actually, come to think of it, the individual situations of teams at a certain moment will have some effect on the deal available at that moment. I.e. a particular situation could put a guy in a position where the offers he gets actually *aren't* commenurate with his productivity.

Could go either way in principle, but you are pointing out that in the case of Jones, he might face a market that can't really give him what he's worth. In which case, that makes him a good player to target -- at least in principle -- i.e. that'd make me wrong in this case, even though my general point is right.

So, sure, we should be prepared for such a situation. Will it happen in Jones' case? Your logic makes sense, but... we still have to be prepared for either eventuality.

&, come to think of it, Tommy is likely monitoring these kind of opportunities -- after all, he's shown that is pretty good at finding bargains if they exist! He got Bertans for a TPE. He got Mathews for nothing. He got Bryant for nothing.

OTOH, he also has a tendency to throw $$ away. I remember when he first was in charge -- & you were the one who pointed this out -- he traded Dwight Howard to Memphis for CJ Miles, instead of waiving him -- when it was obvious that Memphis was going to waive Miles, for whom they had no room. Memphis then waived Howard, but b/c LA picked him up, waiving him cost next to nothing. Meanwhile, we paid a $7.6m salary to a completely useless player.

Then there was literally throwing away a guy who was obviously a rotation journeyman in the NBA (Garrison Mathews) -- i.e. someone who had value.

Let alone the most obvious example -- failing to trade Bertans when a R1 pick was available for him! There's an old saying in the stock market: "don't be afraid to take a profit." Had he made that deal, Tommy would have turned a small TPE into a R1 pick in 6 months! That's what I call a profit!

Back to Jones for a moment -- my only problem is that I think your description of him also implies that WE should not be interested in him. We are a hot mess. How does a 26-year old 6' PG help rebuild the Washington Wizards?

It would have made a lot more sense to have taken his younger brother w/ our #37 pick in '20.

[nate33]

Back to Jones for a moment -- my only problem is that I think your description of him also implies that WE should not be interested in him. We are a hot mess. How does a 26-year old 6' PG help rebuild the Washington Wizards?

I envision a 3-year deal at the full MLE, while simultaneously drafting a PG of the future. Jones would start at first while our rookie PG learns the ropes. If all goes well, at some point in the next two years, our draft pick takes over the starting role and Jones moves to the bench or becomes a trade asset.

Even on a rebuilding team, every player doesn't have to be a rookie contract project. It's okay to have a couple of youngish veterans to set an example. Particularly if the vets aren't all that expensive relative to their production.

All that said, if Sato can play like he has so far, maybe he could be our veteran PG to mentor a young PG draft pick. Perhaps Sato on a 2-year, $8M contract is better option than Tyus Jones for 3 years $32M.

[dckingsfan]

One thing on the off-season plan. Our C and F rotations are complete even if they aren't All-Stars. Although, I think Kispert/KCP would be better at SG.

Porziņgis/Gafford
Kuzma/Avdija/Hachimura/Kispert/KCP

[doclinkin]

Along the same lines, there is no point whatever in targeting either Jalen Brunson or Tyus Jones.

Not b/c they're bad, far from it. Because they are known to be good, those guys will get deals at their market price. They will be paid what they are worth.

It takes a below-the-cap team to pay those guys above the MLE. How many below-the-cap teams are in need of a point guard and are willing to pay more than an MLE salary?

As far as I know, the likely under-the-cap teams are:

San Antonio
Orlando
Detroit
Indiana
Portland
Memphis

All of them except Detroit and Memphis are 2-deep in quality ball-handling guards.

And Detroit just drafted a PG 2 years in a row.

[doclinkin]

All this talk about how “bad” this current Zards team will be going forward fails to take into account what this team might be able to accomplish with Beal and Porzingis on the court together; the continued improvement of Rui, Kispert and Deni; the experience and leadership of Kuz and KCP; the addition of a quality PG like Brunson or Jones; and the addition of a lottery pick.

None of us really knows how good (or bad) that team might be.

This is where I am. You are as good as your record, sure, but definitive statements of how good a team 'is' fails to reflect on the growth potential of young players. Age 27-29 tends to be the prime of an NBA player's career. (average age of an all-star 26.5, average age of an MVP 27.9, most players keep their peak for ~3 years).

Alright we may over-pay the 29yr-old Beal over the next few years (though I still think Tommy will give him Max+ but not the full super-max, and he will ask for player's option years to time an opt out with the new TV contracts). But of the rest of the roster, only the expiring contracts of role-players KCP, Gill, Neto, Sato, Ish are on the far side of that peak.

The rest of the team is ascending the learning curve. It has been gratifying watching Deni and Rui begin to play with confidence. And they have years to go on that growth curve. Gafford is 23 and we can see him learning on the job. Shot blocking Bigs tend to foul a ton while they are learning, and eventually learn to defend with timing, anticipation, positioning. Kispert (also 23) comes into the league a fairly polished player, an instant vet, but still his growth over his rookie year has been a revelation. He broke Beal's team record for number of 3pt shots hit by a Wizards rookie. It is likely he improves over the next few years.

As a player just entering that prime, our team centers it's fortunes on a player that some were willing to disregard. Porzingis is a stellar example of why one shouldn't count out a talented young star. Holding him to a hard and fast rule of how all Centers must play according to statistical averages, does not reflect the context that as a 7'3" face-up player he can warp the traditional spacing in the team's favor. He is not statistically traditional, so a smart coach has found a way to maximize what he does do well. Opponents have to scramble to adjust. And he is just entering that traditional peak. Health of course is the watchword for Porzingis, but many Bigs peak later, play longer in their NBA careers. The fact that his offense does not require him to bang in the paint to earn his points may prolong his career. Outside shooting bigs commonly have careers with extended usefulness (Robert Horry, sleepy Sam Perkins).

Kyle Kuzma and Thomas Bryant, are two others who are entering that prime. An argument can be made for either of them why their learning curve may be delayed (playing behind HOF starters; injury). If we re-sign Bryant at an injury discount, we may get him on a bargain contract as he grows into that peak. Kuzma has shown enough flashes of late game clutch play that even if you dismiss him on his overall stat effect (BOAT ANCHOR BOAT ANCHOR, can we get another metaphor?) there are teams who will value both his upside and championship experience. Personally I think he has been a solid player. If a player on another team had per100 numbers of: 25pts 12r 5ast 1 steal 1 block, and less than 3 fouls per 100 I think we would be eyeing him as a trade target. Is there no chance his efficiency numbers improve when playing next to Porzingis? We damn sure have needed his rebounding at the least.

We have had miserable years as Wizards fans, but from where I am sitting, though the results and record have been the same as all the Ernie years where we relied on contract year veterans gunning for stats, still I like the way the team has played this year. Young guys learning on the job, players showing energy on defense, our young guys playing with low ego. Yes we have lost a ton because we are deep in role-player talent and no game-takeover stars who are a mismatch in our favor every night. (Until now with the Zinger and his recent play). It feels to me like we are a star player away from perennially competing at a high level. Or two stars.

Though granted the "star player away" may be Beal, and by "away" I mean swapped to another team. Beal does not match the time-line of the others, if they do develop as well as can be hoped. Swapping Beal for a chance at top-end talent would probably be the smart play. Nevertheless, you never know, as Wizards fans are always aware: there is always the lottery, we just may luck out. If someone could only convince Ted that nobody else is fooled by late season wins against tanking teams and playoff contenders who are resting their starters. Even if now there actually is such a thing as a 10th seed.

[payitforward]

Back to Jones for a moment -- my only problem is that I think your description of him also implies that WE should not be interested in him. We are a hot mess. How does a 26-year old 6' PG help rebuild the Washington Wizards?

I envision a 3-year deal at the full MLE, while simultaneously drafting a PG of the future. Jones would start at first while our rookie PG learns the ropes. If all goes well, at some point in the next two years, our draft pick takes over the starting role and Jones moves to the bench or becomes a trade asset.

Even on a rebuilding team, every player doesn't have to be a rookie contract project. It's okay to have a couple of youngish veterans to set an example. Particularly if the vets aren't all that expensive relative to their production.

All that said, if Sato can play like he has so far, maybe he could be our veteran PG to mentor a young PG draft pick. Perhaps Sato on a 2-year, $8M contract is better option than Tyus Jones for 3 years $32M.

All fair points. I guess the problem is that I see the Wizards targeting Tyus Jones as another in a series of moves to *avoid* rebuilding. I.e. pursuing the idea that we can be a good team... right now. The idea being that we don't need to rebuild -- who knows how good we could be?

Only one problem. We won 30-something games in 2018-19, we won 30-something games in 2019-20. We won the equivalent of 30-something games in a shortened 2020-21, & we'll win 30-something games this year.

The high point of this sequence of seasons was to be effortlessly kicked to the side of the road by the Sixers last year. You know what? I'd rather BE the Sixers.

& I would have thought that the disappointments of this season -- finally! -- would convince the opponents of rebuilding that we're running determinedly down a road that goes nowhere. But, instead, the same cast of characters who thought John Wall was one of the best players in the league & would take us to the promised land, who thought it was a terrific idea to trade what turned out to be a lottery pick for Markieff Morris, who were in favor of trading a pick that could have brought us Jarrett Allen in return for a couple of dozen games by Bojan Bogdanovic, who were all over signing Davis Bertans long term for a ton of $$ instead of trading him for a R1 pick, who thought trading a #22 pick for Aaron Holiday was just the right thing to do, etc. etc. etc. ... that same cast of characters is convinced instead that Brad Beal will come back a star, Kristaps Porzingis will continue to do for us what he's never done in 6 NBA seasons, & have in mind a sequence of other invented notions (about Kyle Kuzma being a good player, Rui having become just terrific, etc...) of which they feel convinced....

Don't get me wrong -- I like Tyus Jones; he's a good player. Got nothing to do with Tyus Jones. &, if Sato can play like this, of course we should sign him for a couple of years.

In fact, I could be completely incorrect! What do I know?

Still, I'm pretty sure that the result of traveling the road we're on, one year from now, will be that we repeat this same debate after another 30-something win season. I'm sure we both hope I'm wrong.