Post-Mortem: 2021-22 New York Knicks

[cgf]

So much has changed since the start of the season!

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Unsurprisingly; going 3-17 between January 17th and March 4th...after a 1-7 stretch in december...changed things.

[cupcakesnake]

I have less exposure than Knicks fans but I don't get why firing Thibs would be a priority. From the outside looking in he overachieved big time with his roster last year and roughly as expected this year when the EC competition got a lot stiffer. Has he not earned himself another year at least?

He's making the same mistakes he always has, and it's clearly putting a limit on the teams' ceiling

For example, in a game we were losing by 15 with 30 seconds left, he subbed out every starter except RJ, who then injured his ankle right afterwards. Fortunately he only missed a couple weeks, but he clearly hasn't learned anything from the Rose incident

He refused to play our rookie Quentin Grimes until he was literally forced to due to injuries, and who immediately upon being given minutes showed he was clearly a rotational 3-D guy and should have been getting minutes from the start

"His" guys have no accountability. Julius Randle gives little to no effort most nights, and he never sees a minutes reduction for it, while if Obi messes up, he gets pulled from the game. There have been numerous occasions where a unit with Obi is playing well because the offense goes through the guards and we get decent shots, only for Thibs to bring Randle back in who immediately kills the flow

Speaking of, Thibs' offense is pure garbage. His "system" if you want to call it that is "let Julius do his best Melo impersonation". By that, I mean Randle will get the ball at the 3pt line, fake a 3, then do a 1-dribble pull-up iso long 2 which usually misses, or he'll post up a 6 foot guard 20 feet from the basket and go into a turnaround jumper, which also usually misses

To be fair, part of that is due to us not having a PG because Rose is injured and the FO signed Kemba thinking he could do it, but he can't so we shut him down, but Thibs' response was to play Alec Burks. Meanwhile, Immanuel Quickley has been tearing it up since the All Star break and is more of a PG than Burks, but Thibs won't even consider starting him

And that's not even getting into the fact that he has used Taj Gibson at PF next to Mitchell Robinson and Jericho Sims for extended stretches of time when Randle has missed games, which clearly did not work and yet we kept going back to it

If this were Thibs' second season overall as a coach, guys would be more lenient on him. But he's been doing this for over a decade, and has not learned from his mistakes, and refuses to adapt. So we know he's gonna be doing the same stuff in the future, because we have years worth of evidence before this. It'd be one thing if it were just injuries or Randle underperforming, because that's not on him, but it's the fact that despite those things he's making the same mistakes over and over again. It's the parable of the scorpion and the frog, it's just in his nature and he can't change.

Absolutely. Good list of bad Thibs things. Thibs plays a very conservative offensive style where he's mostly reliant on his preferred ball handlers generating medium efficiency (good enough!) offense. This works in the regular season well enough, especially if it's a good defensive team. Let the ball handlers attack and do whatever they want and live with the results. Thibs does not put other players skills to use, and he puts his primary ball handlers skills to wayyyyy to much use.

Just wanted to point out that Minnesota fans were making similar descriptions, almost word for word, with different players swapped out. Well...mostly different players haha. Taj at power forward is Thibs' baby blanket he just can't bring himself to throw out. We also got some exciting Derrick Rose hero ball moments to mask our useless offense!

Thibs...What to do about Thibs? Last year was amazing what he did with that group. He couldn't coax another year out of them, though. The worrying thing is that people expect this from Thibs teams. They expect him to grind players down both physically and mentally. Can he bring a team BACK after doing that? A lot of people have been commenting on the improved East. That's true, but last year the Knicks had HCA. They were consistently good all season long. The difference in the East's talent isn't big enough to make up for the difference in play. I'm not sure what good another year of Thibs would do, but due to his brilliant job the previous year, I 100% understand if they do keep him around.

I don't understand why people keep falling for his schtick. I drank all the Thibs kool-aid I could when he was with the Bulls. But even back then, I started noticing how rigid Chicago became in the playoffs, offensively. Once a team countered them, it was over. Thibs' answer was always more of his favorite plays, more of his favorite lineups, and his teams never felt proactive or prepared for their opponents. We gave him a hard benefit of the doubt due to Rose's tragic injuries. But Thibs has proved to be absolutely cartoonish in his inability to change or adapt, across 3 teams over a decade. Front offices keep letting him chase Rose and Gibson and treating Thibs like he's a sane, normal, coach doing sane, normal guy things.

He does one thing: increases regular-season win totals by playing a very safe and simple style, and maximizing his preferred lineups and strategies beyond what most coaches are willing to do. He's basically the perfect coach to scam your fan base into thinking you're finally breaking out. I think the time for reasonable, measured takes on Thibs is over. It's time for us to fully embrace screaming and ranting and hyperbolizing every weird thing Thibs repeats for the 100000th time.

Nobody is saying that Thibs is a bad coach. .

I am. I definitely am

[cupcakesnake]

Q4: Here's where things get weird... They have an up and coming team behind the treadmill team. For all my kvetching about the team, underneath it all they have the best group of young talent I've ever seen for the franchise. After a long run of very little it's something. After a tough start, RJ has legit broken out as a borderline star. Quickley started strong, slumped, and then finished very strong. Mitch is solid. Obi, Grimes, McBride, and Sims all showed good promise as role players. Particularly Grimes, who has a sweet shot and plays hard defense. Very good wing for today's game. Rokas Jokubaitus is an intriguing prospect overseas. And, of course, Reddish teased the **** out of us before going down for the year. And we have three first rounders in the next two years.

The issue is, there's treadmill dead weight in front of all but RJ and Mitch and Mitch might leave. A team with a smart owner might let the front office cut some of the dead weight so the rebuild can shine through and some real trade assets might develop. It's just hard to see a Dolan owned team going that route. We haven't resigned a draft pick since the 90s and may continue that trend by letting Mitch walk. Then doubling down on veteran talent that cements the treadmill while the rising team grows up on another franchise.

Such is life as a Knicks fan. I'd love to see them do the right thing but even when they occasionally get it right it never lasts long.

I'd

1. re-sign Mitch up to 20 mil over 2 years. Less on a longer deal.
2. Give RJ a max extension
3. Look to move some of our heavier contracts to make room for the younger guys. Westbrook has been mentioned but Wall might actually be willing to take a step back and be a constructive part of a rebuild. Maybe a three team deal where Houston gets some draft compensation and Westbrook.
4. On that note, Randle goes.
5. Fire Thibs. Hire a coach for development. Maybe Atkinson.
6. Otherwise stay the course and let the chips fall as they may with a younger team.

Are you that high on RJ? He's had some very impressive stretches here and definitely looked like a star a lot of the time in the year 2022. He can absolutely bully his way to the rim, and has some decent versatility with his skill set and versatility. But he's booking another season of disgusting efficiency. He isn't scoring well at the rim, despite his ability to battering ram his way there. He's even worse from floater range. He's not a good 3-point shooter or foul shooter. Is your feeling: give this guy better spacing and support and he'll become efficient?

To be clear, I root for RJ. I'm Canadian, I've been rooting for him since he was in high school. He was the Canadian Bball Prince that was Promised, and he was going to help us all wake up from the nightmare of all-star Andrew Wiggins. But I'm still nervous about his ability to become a star. Tell me something to feel better about this!

[Capn'O]

^max might be pushing but imo it's just something you do for rookies showing star potential. I think his efficiency improves on a team built for him and the other young players on the team head that direction. He and Randle are a tough fit and I choose RJ for age and leadership skills. With better units around him he's been a high impact player.

[DOT]

^max might be pushing but imo it's just something you do for rookies showing star potential. I think his efficiency improves on a team built for him and the other young players on the team head that direction. He and Randle are a tough fit and I choose RJ for age and leadership skills. With better units around him he's been a high impact player.

Giving him a max is definitely an overpay as he is right now

But you don't really have a choice unless you get a good trade offer for him, because you kind of can't afford not to give him a max

With that being said, some of the posters on our board have taken up the mantra that maxing RJ would be "one of the worst contracts in NBA history" and I think that's incredibly hyperbolic.

[cgf]

Q4: Here's where things get weird... They have an up and coming team behind the treadmill team. For all my kvetching about the team, underneath it all they have the best group of young talent I've ever seen for the franchise. After a long run of very little it's something. After a tough start, RJ has legit broken out as a borderline star. Quickley started strong, slumped, and then finished very strong. Mitch is solid. Obi, Grimes, McBride, and Sims all showed good promise as role players. Particularly Grimes, who has a sweet shot and plays hard defense. Very good wing for today's game. Rokas Jokubaitus is an intriguing prospect overseas. And, of course, Reddish teased the **** out of us before going down for the year. And we have three first rounders in the next two years.

The issue is, there's treadmill dead weight in front of all but RJ and Mitch and Mitch might leave. A team with a smart owner might let the front office cut some of the dead weight so the rebuild can shine through and some real trade assets might develop. It's just hard to see a Dolan owned team going that route. We haven't resigned a draft pick since the 90s and may continue that trend by letting Mitch walk. Then doubling down on veteran talent that cements the treadmill while the rising team grows up on another franchise.

Such is life as a Knicks fan. I'd love to see them do the right thing but even when they occasionally get it right it never lasts long.

I'd

1. re-sign Mitch up to 20 mil over 2 years. Less on a longer deal.
2. Give RJ a max extension
3. Look to move some of our heavier contracts to make room for the younger guys. Westbrook has been mentioned but Wall might actually be willing to take a step back and be a constructive part of a rebuild. Maybe a three team deal where Houston gets some draft compensation and Westbrook.
4. On that note, Randle goes.
5. Fire Thibs. Hire a coach for development. Maybe Atkinson.
6. Otherwise stay the course and let the chips fall as they may with a younger team.

Are you that high on RJ? He's had some very impressive stretches here and definitely looked like a star a lot of the time in the year 2022. He can absolutely bully his way to the rim, and has some decent versatility with his skill set and versatility. But he's booking another season of disgusting efficiency. He isn't scoring well at the rim, despite his ability to battering ram his way there. He's even worse from floater range. He's not a good 3-point shooter or foul shooter. Is your feeling: give this guy better spacing and support and he'll become efficient?

To be clear, I root for RJ. I'm Canadian, I've been rooting for him since he was in high school. He was the Canadian Bball Prince that was Promised, and he was going to help us all wake up from the nightmare of all-star Andrew Wiggins. But I'm still nervous about his ability to become a star. Tell me something to feel better about this!

The efficiency is going to be the next step for him, but he looks like a new player since the calendar turned over and with how well he gets to the rim/line, he can be a difference-maker even if he just becomes average from both areas...especially with his knack for playmaking.

Though, this past summer, finishing around the rim was something that RJ and Hanlen talked about working on in a future offseason...I can't remember if that was supposed to be one of the main focuses of this coming summer or the one after that...it isn't something they've focused on yet.

So what I'd say to encourage you is to wait to judge his potential as a finisher around the rim until we've seen what he can do once he & his trainer have focused on developing that part of his game...as RJ's greatest strength is how hard he works on his game.

[Capn'O]

^max might be pushing but imo it's just something you do for rookies showing star potential. I think his efficiency improves on a team built for him and the other young players on the team head that direction. He and Randle are a tough fit and I choose RJ for age and leadership skills. With better units around him he's been a high impact player.

Giving him a max is definitely an overpay as he is right now

But you don't really have a choice unless you get a good trade offer for him, because you kind of can't afford not to give him a max

With that being said, some of the posters on our board have taken up the mantra that maxing RJ would be "one of the worst contracts in NBA history" and I think that's incredibly hyperbolic.

That's **** ridiculous

[cgf]

^max might be pushing but imo it's just something you do for rookies showing star potential. I think his efficiency improves on a team built for him and the other young players on the team head that direction. He and Randle are a tough fit and I choose RJ for age and leadership skills. With better units around him he's been a high impact player.

Giving him a max is definitely an overpay as he is right now

But you don't really have a choice unless you get a good trade offer for him, because you kind of can't afford not to give him a max

With that being said, some of the posters on our board have taken up the mantra that maxing RJ would be "one of the worst contracts in NBA history" and I think that's incredibly hyperbolic.

That's **** ridiculous

sounds rather understated for our board

[BigGargamel]

This is a bottom five roster in the NBA EASILY. Maybe even the worst when you take into account the lack of future star power. If you take the best player from every team and rank them the Knicks might finish last. RJ Barrett isn't bad (LOL @ max extension for a 40% shooter), but if he's your top building block you aren't going anywhere. The Knicks have been trying to lure free agents for over two decades, and it's just not going to work.

Rose, Randle, Walker, Gibson, Fournier, Burks, Noel. Those are all well known names, but except for Randle they are all fringe role players on good teams.

The Knicks need a plan and they haven't had one since Y2K. With the age of Social Media and the internet, being in New York just isn't good enough anymore.

[bearadonisdna]

My good ol Knicks .
Gm : keep
Coach : keep
We are talking short term . You don’t fire a COY a season later despite seeing many fireable offenses , mind numbing basketball treadmill basketball . The floor is much lower than what we’ve seen this season so it’s reasonable to adjust /adapt and stay the course towards competitiveness/contention.

Expectations: underachieved
The final product of the east getting hot and finishing with good records is not indicative of the Knicks chances early in the season to assert a top 6 seed while most of the east struggled.

Off-season : would like to get off EVERY contract signed last off-season except maybe rose .
Thibs needs defenders as starters so supplement offense from the bench . Most teams can supplement defense from the bench but Thibs is camp lineup in stone guy so the defense is important and the offense can tweaked throughout the season from the bench .

Am getting off Mitch Robinson as a starter . Going into year 5 the development is done . Knicks had a league worst interior offense.

Randle did his job . Is positive bpm while still averaging 10fgs per 100 possessions which is part of my criteria for a top offensive option .
The is a lot of bad press around Randle now mostly stemming from anger around fans and even teammates , he kinda forced himself out and while I would prefer he remain as an asset , the water may have been poisoned too much to Allow a continuance of his service.

[GSP]

Last season greatly overrated how good this team was.......Thibs had them as a 4 seed and 41 wins. Their projected over under was 21.5 wins..... Crushed it by 20 wins which almost never happens. They just arent a good team and Randle had a fluke season

[R-DAWG]

I think we need to look at what the Knicks business plan was when they hired Leon Rose, which essentially was to build the 2019 Brooklyn Nets or LA Clippers - up and coming fringe playoff teams in marquee markets with cap flexibility, a stable of young players who could fill roles on contending teams, and draft capital. After striking out in 2019, the Knicks realized that stars won't just show up to a toxic situation, but join a fringe playoff team with the opportunity to take them to contender status is appealing.

No one expected the Knicks to be the #4 seed heading into the 2021 playoffs, and in fact, they were like a loss away from being the #6 seed. 2021 was a weird season with no fans in the buildings, some of the better teams in the league very affected by late bubble runs/short offseason, and COVID disruptions. People overlook the fact that the Knicks had very few postponed games, and only 1 rotation player (Alec Burks) missing time with COVID in 2021 (Derrick Rose was in protocols as well but that was right when he joined the team). In 2021 the Knicks were .500 at the end of FEB, which seemed like a huge accomplishment and the play-in was in reach, then rode a huge 6 week run to the #4 seed. And the images of a packed Madison Square Garden to kick of the playoffs was a special "New York is Back" moment that will live forever with the Mike Piazza home run post 9-11.

However, the playoffs were a real wakeup call.

You can't really fault what the Knicks did this offseason, although nothing worked out as planned. The pieces didn't fit, guys like Nerlens Noel and Derrick Rose couldn't stay healthy, and Julius Randle has one of the biggest regressions to the mean of all time. By going away from Bullock and Payton, the Knicks lost their defensive identity, and making matters worse Kemba and Fournier just didn't fit together. In hindsight, upgrading one of the guard spots with an offensive first guy while retaining the defensive identity in the other slot would have been the right move. I thought the missed opportunity was acquiring Kemba's contract from Boston while also receiving the 16th overall pick. You add an offensive spark plug to the starting lineup, in theory you either keep Bullock or play Burks (i don't think there is room for both in this scenario) in that role if you want a little more offense, and you still retain the flexibility to resign Derrick Rose. The you see if you could package #16 and #19 to see if you can get into the late lotto and select another high end prospect. It's a balance between trying to improve the current roster while investing in building in the future.

without plugging in a player with the 16th pick, or 19th pick, this is the below rotation:

Robinson/Gibson/Sims
Randle/Toppin
Barrett/Grimes
Burks or Bullock/Quickely
Walker/Rose/McBride

The key here, assuming they passed on the Randle extension, is this roster had a 2 year commitment, more minutes for young players, and potentially the 16/19 picks were used to get up and grab a Chris Duarte or Booknight.

The Randle extension was a mistake. It was a mistake the day the deal was signed. I'm not sure what the league rules allowed, but why not decline his option, and give him a 2 year max deal with a team option/partial guarantee for year 3? Allows him to make an extra $12MM or so this year. Then you can show you did right by him without having an additional 4 years on the books (my scenario was 1.5 additional years but I could have lived with an extra 2 years of max money guaranteed vs 4 years at less money per year). Anyway, he's a 27 year old player one year removed from an all-NBA season without a major injury. I think a team will roll the dice on him even if it's just for expiring's (and i would probably make that trade if I were the Knicks).

At the end of the day, something was just off about this team all season. Having said that, the Knicks are not in a horrible position. Things could have been a lot of worse if we emptied the tank for a declining Damien Lillard type of move that could cripple the franchise for years to come.

RJ Barrett looks like he's going to be the first Knicks draft pick to sign a long term extension since Charlie Ward in the mid 90's. Barrett has shown signs of being a star, although his efficiency is a concern. However, the guy clearly works hard and cares - he's got a lot of Jimmy Butler in him. While he might not be a true franchise player, he's defiantly and building block.

Immanuel Quickely, Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin have all shown that they have roles in this league. The jury is still out on weather they can reach their ceilings as average starters, or stay at their floor of fringe rotation guys. But these are the types of guys that stars look at and say, if I join this roster, these players can help us win (vs being in the Lakers situation where they sign a bunch of old guys).

Mitchell Robinson really came into his own this season, although part of me is hesitant to give him a big contract. I see some JaVale McGee in him.

Going forward, NY has all their first rd picks, plus an additional 1 and a stable of 2nd rd picks to play with. They enter the offseason with a bunch of expiring contracts and outside of Randle's deal, no real long term money on the books (my assumption is they can get off the last year of Fournier's deal pretty easily).

I don't think they have the right coach, but it's a bad look and shows instability firing a coach 12 months after he was the coach of the year and led the organization to probably their 2nd best season in the last 20 years (2013 was the better one, and they fired the coach the season after that). He deserves another year.

At this point, I would stay the course. See if you can get off Randle and get off some of the veterans to open up minutes for young players. But no need to attach assets to a Randle or Fournier to get off the contracts. Extend RJ if you can get him below the max, if not take your chances in restricted free agency. With Robinson, if the deal is reasonable - ie 3 years and $40MM you extend him. if not, and someone is willing to give him $20MM per or more over 4 years you let him walk.

As crazy as it sounds, as Knick fans, we have had it far worse than we currently do. It's not great, but it feels like there is something to build upon here, even if the true franchise changing pieces are not yet in place.

[cgf]

As someone who didn't like the Fournier signing from the get-go...I do have to give the FO credit for the contract not being out of line with what players like that are typically paid by NBA teams.

Many of us disagree with paying those one-dimensional snipers that kind of money, but there is a long list of guys in that "ideally a 6th man, but can start if they are the biggest liability in the starting lineup" archetype who are in that upper-teens / lower-20s a year. Hield, Gallo, Rozier, Gordon, Hardaway, J.Harris, Bojan Bogdanovic, Fournier, D.Robinson, Powell, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Levert, Huerter, Bertans, etc. are all within a min contract or two of Fournier and mostly have similar warts to offset their shooting prowess.


It was a bad move because it sacrificed our defensive identity without turning shot-making into something we could bank on to keep us in games...especially when paired with signing Kemba instead of a defensive PG like Lonzo...but it wasn't a bad contract given what the market pays that kind of player.

[SF_Warriors]

I kind of feel like RJ/Randle is the east coast version of Fox/Sabonis..Good players but not guys you want leading your team.

[R-DAWG]

As someone who didn't like the Fournier signing from the get-go...I do have to give the FO credit for the contract not being out of line with what players like that are typically paid by NBA teams.

Many of us disagree with paying those one-dimensional snipers that kind of money, but there is a long list of guys in that "ideally a 6th man, but can start if they are the biggest liability in the starting lineup" archetype who are in that upper-teens / lower-20s a year. Hield, Gallo, Rozier, Gordon, Hardaway, J.Harris, Bojan Bogdanovic, Fournier, D.Robinson, Powell, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Levert, Huerter, Bertans, etc. are all within a min contract or two of Fournier and mostly have similar warts to offset their shooting prowess.


It was a bad move because it sacrificed our defensive identity without turning shot-making into something we could bank on to keep us in games...especially when paired with signing Kemba instead of a defensive PG like Lonzo...but it wasn't a bad contract given what the market pays that kind of player.

Very well said re: Fournier. Fair value based on the player he is, but fair value for the player he is isn't necessarily good value.

[shtolky]

This is a bottom five roster in the NBA EASILY. Maybe even the worst when you take into account the lack of future star power. If you take the best player from every team and rank them the Knicks might finish last. RJ Barrett isn't bad (LOL @ max extension for a 40% shooter), but if he's your top building block you aren't going anywhere. The Knicks have been trying to lure free agents for over two decades, and it's just not going to work.

Rose, Randle, Walker, Gibson, Fournier, Burks, Noel. Those are all well known names, but except for Randle they are all fringe role players on good teams.

The Knicks need a plan and they haven't had one since Y2K. With the age of Social Media and the internet, being in New York just isn't good enough anymore.

All of the guys you mentioned above are literally the exact guys Knick fans want off the team (maybe Rose is a keeper as nice vet backup PG). We wouldn't mind having a bottom five roster with a chance at a high lottery pick if we had a coach who played mostly young guys. We may not have superstar young guys, but there is a lot of talent and potential with RJ, Mitch, Quickley, Grimes, McBride, Sims, Reddish and Obi. Thibs just doesn't give them a true chance, that is, 25-30mpg consistently. RJ may be inefficient, but it's still difficult to score 20ppg at age 21, period. He's had some monster games this season and he works his butt off and all indications are that he will keep improving. Quickley has been a beast post all-star break and whenever Obi gets actual, consistent minutes in the 30's, he produces.

The plan is right there in front of our faces but for whatever reason the team refuses to implement it. I mean Burks is averaging 36mpg over his last 5 when we have been out of playoff contention. Taj has played more mpg than Obi this season. Quickley just can't crack 25mpg even though he's been balling. As DOT said, he has a super tight leash for the young guys but he has let Randle get away with absolute murder all season long. Randle has been dreadful this season but Thibs doesn't hold him accountable at all.

All fans want is for the young guys to play with a sprinkle of vets, utilize the cap space we have in 2023-2024 WISELY, and try to hit on as many picks as possible. The team has a lot of flexibility both with cap space and draft picks, but Thibs basically wasted this season by playing Randle, Burks, Fournier, etc big minutes. Taj Gibson should get almost zero minutes and yet he was constantly playing down the stretch. It's been somewhat maddening watching Thibs coach this team and it feels like somewhat of a wasted season because of Thibs' refusal to adapt.

[DaGawd]

I kind of feel like RJ/Randle is the east coast version of Fox/Sabonis..Good players but not guys you want leading your team.

Knicks and Kings almost mirror images of each other… in more ways than 1

[Vampirate]

I kind of feel like RJ/Randle is the east coast version of Fox/Sabonis..Good players but not guys you want leading your team.

Knicks and Kings almost mirror images of each other… in more ways than 1

Well except you guys have made the playoffs recently, even though you should've tanked last year.

[tsherkin]

Not having watched much New York basketball (and also being unfamiliar with his splits), when I look at Barrett I see a dude who can hit a three, isnt an elite finisher, shoots poorly between the restricted area and three point line, isnt amazing at drawing fouls, is a weak FT shooter and is remarkably inefficient despite this being the most favorable era for perimeter scorers, all in his what, third season?

Some guys have a different arc, of course, or have a nice peak late. And obviously team environment matters, etc etc But I do not grok major excitement for him at this stage.

Looking at his splits... equally bawlz at home or on the road. Usage spike after the ASG without an efficiency increase despite improved FT%. March has been one of his worst scoring months (efficiency-wise, anyhow) this season.

Career arcs differ and numbers say only so much, especially on a weaker team, so who knows, but hype for him doesnt click for me.

[meekrab]

I'm not sure RJ would get the full MLE on the open market, let alone a 25% max.