Post-Mortem: 2021-22 Portland Trailblazers

[rickbrunson]

Lol. The number of people who don't know what 'treadmill' means is just astounding.

-Too good to get a good draft pick
-Not good enough to be a serious title threat
-Usually one minor star that they keep desperately scrambling minor pieces around
-Can't attract a free agent due to an unattractive location or salary cap hell

Welcome to the treadmill.

No. Treadmill means ‘running in place’. That’s what a treadmill is. You run but you don’t go anywhere. Nothing changes. Portland definitely didn’t stay stationary this year. New coach. New GM. Traded CJ, Powell and RoCo. Simmons exploded onto the scene. And no playoffs this year for the first time since Dame’s rookie year. These are all big changes. Are they for the better? Maybe, maybe not. But we were on a treadmill before. We weren’t going to win a title with that group so we got off the treadmill and got bad and will try to rebuild with our two lottery picks and cap space.

I really am not trying to be offensive, but yeah, you just don’t understand what the term means. And you’re not alone. People misuse that term al the time.

Sorry, but you're wrong.
You can change all the pieces you want, what implies that you're "treadmill" is that you stay in one place - not going forward or back. Youre running in place in medicority. Nobody cares if you go from one mediocre coach to another, or some random new scramble of secondary scrubs. You are in the same place you've been for the past 8 years. Running and running, and not getting anywhere.

[NyKnicks1714]

They can trade Lillard and rebuild, or they can put a decent team around Lillard with the goal of competing for 1st and 2nd round exits for the next few years. Either option is understandable, but they need to firmly pick one.

[Effigy]

-Too good to get a good draft pick
-Not good enough to be a serious title threat
-Usually one minor star that they keep desperately scrambling minor pieces around
-Can't attract a free agent due to an unattractive location or salary cap hell

Welcome to the treadmill.

No. Treadmill means ‘running in place’. That’s what a treadmill is. You run but you don’t go anywhere. Nothing changes. Portland definitely didn’t stay stationary this year. New coach. New GM. Traded CJ, Powell and RoCo. Simmons exploded onto the scene. And no playoffs this year for the first time since Dame’s rookie year. These are all big changes. Are they for the better? Maybe, maybe not. But we were on a treadmill before. We weren’t going to win a title with that group so we got off the treadmill and got bad and will try to rebuild with our two lottery picks and cap space.

I really am not trying to be offensive, but yeah, you just don’t understand what the term means. And you’re not alone. People misuse that term al the time.

Sorry, but you're wrong.
You can change all the pieces you want, what implies that you're "treadmill" is that you stay in one place - not going forward or back. Youre running in place in medicority. Nobody cares if you go from one mediocre coach to another, or some random new scramble of secondary scrubs. You are in the same place you've been for the past 8 years. Running and running, and not getting anywhere.

But we DID move backwards. We made the playoffs 8 years in a row. ANd now we have the 6th worst record and are getting a high lottery pick. Even by your OWN logic, we're not a treadmill team. A perpetual playoff team that gets bounced in the first round, that's a treadmill team. That team blows it up and falls deep into the lottery, well they're off the treadmill.

Just take the loss man, it's ok. I never understand why people are so afraid to admit they are wrong on the internet, lol.

[monopoman]

No. Treadmill means ‘running in place’. That’s what a treadmill is. You run but you don’t go anywhere. Nothing changes. Portland definitely didn’t stay stationary this year. New coach. New GM. Traded CJ, Powell and RoCo. Simmons exploded onto the scene. And no playoffs this year for the first time since Dame’s rookie year. These are all big changes. Are they for the better? Maybe, maybe not. But we were on a treadmill before. We weren’t going to win a title with that group so we got off the treadmill and got bad and will try to rebuild with our two lottery picks and cap space.

I really am not trying to be offensive, but yeah, you just don’t understand what the term means. And you’re not alone. People misuse that term al the time.

Sorry, but you're wrong.
You can change all the pieces you want, what implies that you're "treadmill" is that you stay in one place - not going forward or back. Youre running in place in medicority. Nobody cares if you go from one mediocre coach to another, or some random new scramble of secondary scrubs. You are in the same place you've been for the past 8 years. Running and running, and not getting anywhere.

But we DID move backwards. We made the playoffs 8 years in a row. ANd now we have the 6th worst record and are getting a high lottery pick. Even by your OWN logic, we're not a treadmill team. A perpetual playoff team that gets bounced in the first round, that's a treadmill team. That team blows it up and falls deep into the lottery, well they're off the treadmill.

Just take the loss man, it's ok. I never understand why people are so afraid to admit they are wrong on the internet, lol.

Even during the supposed treadmill era we did get out of the 1st round a few times and once to the WCF. There are a damn many teams that haven't even had that level of success in the playoffs in the past 20 years let alone just during the Dame era.

[Sactowndog]

San Antonio simultaneously strengthened their hold on the final play-in spot while dashing Portland's hopes of getting in. Portland has stumbled to the finish line. We shall now cut them open and see what's inside...

Here is the data from last year's Post-Mortems:
Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

Team Name: Portland Trailblazers
Record at Time of Death: 27-50 (.351)
GM: Joe Cronin (2021- ) (Interim)
Coach: Chauncey Billups (2021- )

Offensive Rating: 26th
Defensive Rating: 30th
Rebound %: 20th
Turnover %: 23rd

GM: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Damian Lillard ($42m)
Eric Bledsoe ($19m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Josh Hart ($13m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Justise Winslow ($4m)
Nassir Little ($4m)
Keon Johnson ($3m)
Didi Louzada ($2m)
Greg Brown III ($2m)
Trendon Watford ($2m)

Team Options:

Player Options:

Free Agents:
Joe Ingles
Jusuf Nurkic
Anfernee Simons
Ben McLemore
CJ Elleby
Elijah Hughes
Kris Dunn
Drew Eubanks
Reggie Parry
Keljin Blevins
Brandon Williams

Dead Money:
Andrew Nicholson ($3m)

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Orlando Magic
29. Detroit Pistons
28. Houston Rockets
27. Indiana Pacers
26. Oklahoma City Thunder
25. Washington Wizards
24. New York Knicks
23. Portland Trailblazers

Stumbled? They made a mockery of Silvers new draft rules and showed how it is demonstratedly worse than it was previous. A team can Fake injury their entire rotation after the all-star break. Play a worse than G league roster and potentially get a top 5 pick for next year.

Making Silver look like an idiot was their main accomplishment this year.

[rickbrunson]

No. Treadmill means ‘running in place’. That’s what a treadmill is. You run but you don’t go anywhere. Nothing changes. Portland definitely didn’t stay stationary this year. New coach. New GM. Traded CJ, Powell and RoCo. Simmons exploded onto the scene. And no playoffs this year for the first time since Dame’s rookie year. These are all big changes. Are they for the better? Maybe, maybe not. But we were on a treadmill before. We weren’t going to win a title with that group so we got off the treadmill and got bad and will try to rebuild with our two lottery picks and cap space.

I really am not trying to be offensive, but yeah, you just don’t understand what the term means. And you’re not alone. People misuse that term al the time.

Sorry, but you're wrong.
You can change all the pieces you want, what implies that you're "treadmill" is that you stay in one place - not going forward or back. Youre running in place in medicority. Nobody cares if you go from one mediocre coach to another, or some random new scramble of secondary scrubs. You are in the same place you've been for the past 8 years. Running and running, and not getting anywhere.

But we DID move backwards. We made the playoffs 8 years in a row. ANd now we have the 6th worst record and are getting a high lottery pick. Even by your OWN logic, we're not a treadmill team. A perpetual playoff team that gets bounced in the first round, that's a treadmill team. That team blows it up and falls deep into the lottery, well they're off the treadmill.

Just take the loss man, it's ok. I never understand why people are so afraid to admit they are wrong on the internet, lol.

6th isn't low enough, you really need to be top 3 to have a good chance at a decent impact player. The last player to make any real impact from the 6th pick was Marcus Smart, 8 years ago. It's a very slight chance at a meaningful player. This is the danger of being in that 6-13 range, its the lower end of the treadmill. In this league, you want to be at the very top or very bottom, and other seasons are honestly just spinning your wheels.
Want to get off the treadmill? Move Dame and do a full reset. Until then, you'll never be bad enough to bottom out, and there is zero chance of you signing a meaningful free agent, so you really need a generational talent through the draft. Those guys come in the top 3.

[BNM]

Sorry, but you're wrong.
You can change all the pieces you want, what implies that you're "treadmill" is that you stay in one place - not going forward or back. Youre running in place in medicority. Nobody cares if you go from one mediocre coach to another, or some random new scramble of secondary scrubs. You are in the same place you've been for the past 8 years. Running and running, and not getting anywhere.

But we DID move backwards. We made the playoffs 8 years in a row. ANd now we have the 6th worst record and are getting a high lottery pick. Even by your OWN logic, we're not a treadmill team. A perpetual playoff team that gets bounced in the first round, that's a treadmill team. That team blows it up and falls deep into the lottery, well they're off the treadmill.

Just take the loss man, it's ok. I never understand why people are so afraid to admit they are wrong on the internet, lol.

6th isn't low enough, you really need to be top 3 to have a good chance at a decent impact player. The last player to make any real impact from the 6th pick was Marcus Smart, 8 years ago. It's a very slight chance at a meaningful player. This is the danger of being in that 6-13 range, its the lower end of the treadmill.

By having the 6th worst record, you give yourself a 28% chance of getting a top 3 pick, which with the flattening of the lottery odds is only 9% worse than the team with the 3rd worst record (37% chance of a top 3 pick). It's not a given the POR won't have a top 3 pick, just like it's not a given that DET will.

Even if POR ends up picking 6th or 7th, there are almost always quality players available at those positions, or lower. Sometimes even a superstar (Dame 6th, Paul George 10th, Giannis 15th, Kawhi 15th, etc.). Of course, you have to draft smart, but plenty of teams picking in the top 3 make stupid choices.

There have been plenty of player picked lower than Smart in the last 8 years that are better than him (2014: Zach Lavine 13th; 2015: Myles Turner 11th, Devin Booker 13th; 2016: Jamal Murray 7th, Domantas Sabonis 11th; 2017: Donovan Mitchell 13th, Bam Adebayo 14th; 2018: Mikal Bridges 10th, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 11th, Miles Bridges 12th).

Of course there are also future stars picked even lower, but those are just some examples of the talent that has been available in the second half of the lottery in recent drafts. Of course, there is even more top tier talent available in the top 3 picks, but even that doesn't guarantee a future star.

I'm hoping POR gets lucky with the ping pong balls and moves up in the draft order, but even if they don't, they will have their highest draft pick since Damian Lillard and possibly even a second pick in the lottery. Then it's up to the GM and scouting department to do their job - not a given, but that's a topic for another thread.

[monopoman]

Yep, I think what people neglect is when teams continuously make it to the lottery then blow their pick, or the draft gods hardly ever give them a #1-3 pick despite always missing the playoffs.

You can look at certain teams and show their ridiculous record of passing up the better player over and over, and sometimes they are drafting the exact same position. So it's not even well they were looking at a C and they missed Steph Curry or something.

[The High Cyde]

Just thought I’d add this recent vid by Coach Nick interviewing Nassir Little talking a little bit about the team and stuff

Watch on YouTube