Offseason Plan

[gambitx777]

So wall and Westbrook both catch a buy out, let's say. So, let's sign them both to a 2 year plus 1 and split the mid level between the two. Wall cant not should he play a ton of minutes and Westbrook needs to be used as a special weapon, not a utility knife. Putting those two together if they agree could work.

Wall/Westbrook
Beal/KCP (if we keep him)
Kispert/Deni
Kuz/Rui
KP/gaff

We can trade KCP or Kuz for some depth if needed on some 1 for multiples. We have some TPEs and we can sign some min guys and use our bi exception. Plus, our two draft picks to fill in depth.


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[SUPERBALLMAN]

Any interest in bringing back Otto with our MLE? Just looking for him to be a good solid vet to add depth to SF.

He's a UFA age 28, salary last season $2,389,641. His issues have been injuries, but was healthy this past season and played well for GS, looked good and trimmed down when I saw him against the Wizards. Career 40% 3pt, prototypical 3 & D Wing SF with good length and passing skills. A smart team 1st player, former fan favorite and Georgetown legend.

[FAH1223]

Any interest in bringing back Otto with our MLE? Just looking for him to be a good solid vet to add depth to SF.

He's a UFA age 28, salary last season $2,389,641. His issues have been injuries, but was healthy this past season and played well for GS, looked good and trimmed down when I saw him against the Wizards. Career 40% 3pt, prototypical 3 & D Wing SF with good length and passing skills. A smart team 1st player, former fan favorite and Georgetown legend.

Otto would help our team defense. He’s much better at that than Rui and Kuzma. He also had good chemistry with Satoransky and Beal of course.

But we need a true SF who can guard wings. And hit the 3.

[NatP4]

Huh? How is Otto not a true SF that can guard wings?

[FAH1223]

Huh? How is Otto not a true SF that can guard wings?

He can to a point. But he’s so fragile and injury prone I can’t rely on him during an 82 game season.

[pcbothwel]

Huh? How is Otto not a true SF that can guard wings?

Im a big Otto fan and wanted to use the MLE on him last offseason when he was a buy low.
That said, he is not the wing defender he once was. He has put on a bit of weight and injuries have slowed him down. He is a 4 now and even plays a little small ball 5.

Again, love the guy, but he is playing 20 MPG on a 15% usage. His IQ is so high and he plays with the PERFECT team to allow him to be very selective.
I'd love to have him back, but if you expect anything more than a bit player, then we would be thoroughly disappointed.

I think adding Eason to Otto and Deni would be the perfect short term & long term answer at the wing spot, but I have a sneaky suspicion that the Kings are going to snag him up and put him between Barnes and Sabonis.

Ideally, we'd use Kuz or Rui to get a late 1st (SA for McDermott + 24?), draft Daniels + Roddy/Braun, and sign Otto. Bring back Ish & Sato.

Sato / Ish / Daniels
Beal / Kispert / Braun
Deni / KCP / Braun
Rui / Otto / McDermott
KP / Gafford

Deep: Ayayi, Carey, Winston

Tons of youth, depth, and versatility... while keeping enough vets around to keep Beal placated. At the deadline, we have Rui, KCP, and future picks if we decide to get frisky.

[payitforward]

So wall and Westbrook both catch a buy out, let's say. So, let's sign them both to a 2 year plus 1 and split the mid level between the two. Wall cant not should he play a ton of minutes and Westbrook needs to be used as a special weapon, not a utility knife. Putting those two together if they agree could work.

Wall/Westbrook
Beal/KCP (if we keep him)
Kispert/Deni
Kuz/Rui
KP/gaff

We can trade KCP or Kuz for some depth if needed on some 1 for multiples. We have some TPEs and we can sign some min guys and use our bi exception. Plus, our two draft picks to fill in depth.

"A" for originality, that's for sure!

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Murray? No way is Popovich and Buford trading him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Brunson?

Assuming Beal @ $40m & that we pick up KCP's option & re-sign Gill for @$2m, we'll be at roughly $124m for 11 players. None of them is a point guard.

Jalen Brunson is a FA & will get a sizable contract, something around $18m. Surely, it would be wise to sign Sato, as many have suggested. Let's assume he'd get $4m.

That would leave us @$2.5m under the luxury tax for 13 players. Now... we do have Dallas' R2 pick, somewhere around #53, so there's a guy we can sign for $1m. Add a veteran minimum player & we slide under the luxury tax.

In which case, essentially, we have the same 35-45 team as this year. Plus Jalen Brunson. No thanks.

Hard to really know where to start to try to answer this post.

You note that the Wizards don't have a PG and are already close to the luxury tax. But you don't want to add a PG while still staying under the tax.

And you maintain that a Beal+KP team is the same as this year's.

Of course, if Beal doesn't re-sign everything is a different story. If you tell me that with no Beal you want to draft this year for development and tank hard in 2022-2023, then ... mkay .. that's a decent plan.

However, I'm working under the assumption that Beal will re-sign (and for the 35% max). In that circumstance, what are you going to do with the FRP that's going to help a Beal/KP centred team more than trading it for Brunson?

One thing I never have understood a salary cap. If Bradley can be signed for 35% I wonder if there's some kind of sign and trade to get Westbrook back?

Of course one that would not destroy the core of this team

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hard to really know where to start to try to answer this post.

You note that the Wizards don't have a PG and are already close to the luxury tax. But you don't want to add a PG while still staying under the tax.

And you maintain that a Beal+KP team is the same as this year's.

Of course, if Beal doesn't re-sign everything is a different story. If you tell me that with no Beal you want to draft this year for development and tank hard in 2022-2023, then ... mkay .. that's a decent plan.

However, I'm working under the assumption that Beal will re-sign (and for the 35% max). In that circumstance, what are you going to do with the FRP that's going to help a Beal/KP centred team more than trading it for Brunson?

You’re right. A Zards team with Beal and KP on the court together, the continued improvement of Rui, Deni and Kispert, and a quality starting PG (like Brunson) is not essentially the same team as this year’s team.

I’m just not convinced that trading the FRP to acquire Brunson is the way to go. Would prefer to keep the pick and try to sign Tyus Jones if Brunson is too expensive.

Trading a R1 pic sounds like what the Wizards did when we could have had Steph Curry.

Don't go Randy Foye/Mike Miller especially not to overpay Brunson.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Luxury tax is estimated at $148,254,400 by spotrac and the salary cap at $122,000,000.

Beal	42,350,000
Porzingis	33,833,400
KCP	14,004,703
Kuzma	13,000,000
Rui	6,263,188
Avdija	4,916,160
Ish	4,725,000
Kispert	3,552,840
Gafford	1,930,681
Carey	1,782,621
Todd	1,563,518
-------	-------------
Sato	4,000,000
Gill	2,000,000
Brunson	18,000,000
-------	-------------
Total	142,280,951
-------	-------------
Tax line - Total	5,973,449

Assuming you trade for Brunson this season one of those Todd/Cary salaries is traded in the deal. So in reality you are around $7.5m-$7.7m below the tax line with 12 players on the roster.

Nah, that's not wise IMHO.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hard to really know where to start to try to answer this post.

You note that the Wizards don't have a PG and are already close to the luxury tax. But you don't want to add a PG while still staying under the tax.

And you maintain that a Beal+KP team is the same as this year's.

Of course, if Beal doesn't re-sign everything is a different story. If you tell me that with no Beal you want to draft this year for development and tank hard in 2022-2023, then ... mkay .. that's a decent plan.

However, I'm working under the assumption that Beal will re-sign (and for the 35% max). In that circumstance, what are you going to do with the FRP that's going to help a Beal/KP centred team more than trading it for Brunson?

You’re right. A Zards team with Beal and KP on the court together, the continued improvement of Rui, Deni and Kispert, and a quality starting PG (like Brunson) is not essentially the same team as this year’s team.

I’m just not convinced that trading the FRP to acquire Brunson is the way to go. Would prefer to keep the pick and try to sign Tyus Jones if Brunson is too expensive.

Ty Jones is in the last year of a three year deal where he averaged $8.8m/year. This is his best year in the league and he's also shooting a somewhat outlier-ish 39% from 3Pt. How much is he going to make? And how are you going to sign him?

Ty Jones and Delon Wright are players to focus on IMO.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would definitely not trade our 1st for Brunson. Jones at the MLE is a way better option.

Agreed

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[gambitx777]

I'm pretty against using a first for anyone not a top 30 ish player. As considering those guys normally cost multiple assets. You're better off just holding on to your picks. IMO.

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[nate33]

I would definitely not trade our 1st for Brunson. Jones at the MLE is a way better option.

Agreed

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Yeah, if our 1st round pick was the #27 pick or something, then maybe. But we're not giving up the 10th pick in the draft for the privilege of paying Brunson $20M a year. I'd much rather go into next year with Sato and a pick like Dyson Daniels manning the point.

Sheppard hasn't traded the future for now yet, and I don't see him starting now. Frankly, if Beal is insisting on such a trade as a condition of resigning, I think Sheppard might secretly be happy to disappoint Beal so that Beal requests a sign-and-trade.

All along, the Wizards haven't wanted to trade Beal against his will because they're so concerned about how such a move would hurt their reputation. But Beal requesting a trade gives them an out to rebuild properly. Sheppard is a smart guy. I know he's not thrilled about the idea of paying Beal $45M a year for the next 5 years. He is doing it to protect Ted's image and show "loyalty". He knows it's not a move that will build a contender (or improve his reputation as a GM).

[pcbothwel]

I don’t understand where everyone thinks Beals next contract is some unmovable albatross that Tommy is forced to give him because of Ted.

Beals track record as a good(not great) shooter from 3 is well established over a substantial sample size over the last decade. Other than his 3, Beal was as good or better at everything on the court with respect to his career averages.

If you take this years stat line and simply plug in his recent 3 year Avg from 3 of 35%(Career average is 37%), then you still have one of the best players in the league.
Unless this is some Jimmy Butler style yips, he’s going to be an AS caliber player over the next few years with periods that he flirts with All-NBA caliber.

If the NBA has shown all of us on this board one thing, it’s that there is a finite amount of elite talent and always a buyer willing to take on a contract.
If the Beal, KP, and kids show doesn’t succeed(likely), then Beal will be moved and it will be for positive value. No matter how much people will stomp around saying it’s an overpay.
The precedent here has been established over and over. Only a complete skill set/physical collapse or contraction of the league (revenue flatting) could change that. And neither seem likely.


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[nate33]

I don’t understand where everyone thinks Beals next contract is some unmovable albatross that Tommy is forced to give him because of Ted.

Beals track record as a good(not great) shooter from 3 is well established over a substantial sample size over the last decade. Other than his 3, Beal was as good or better at everything on the court with respect to his career averages.

If you take this years stat line and simply plug in his recent 3 year Avg from 3 of 35%(Career average is 37%), then you still have one of the best players in the league.
Unless this is some Jimmy Butler style yips, he’s going to be an AS caliber player over the next few years with periods that he flirts with All-NBA caliber.

If the NBA has shown all of us on this board one thing, it’s that there is a finite amount of elite talent and always a buyer willing to take on a contract.
If the Beal, KP, and kids show doesn’t succeed(likely), then Beal will be moved and it will be for positive value. No matter how much people will stomp around saying it’s an overpay.
The precedent here has been established over and over. Only a complete skill set/physical collapse or contraction of the league (revenue flatting) could change that. And neither seem likely.


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It's not just his 3P%, it's his 3P attempt rate. He is taking fewer and fewer 3's, meaning the shots he is getting are more likely to be open looks, yet his 3P% has continued to crater. Six years ago, he averaged 7.4 3PA's at 40.4%. Last year, it was down to 6.3 3PA's at 34.9%. This year, it was 5.3 attempts at 30.0%. The guy has been trending downward for 6 years now. It's unreasonable to assume some massive jump upward from here. This year, his percentage on open 3's (nearest defender 4-6 feet) was an embarrassing 25.5%.

Also, his turnover rate this year remained stubbornly high despite a significant drop in usage from 34% down to 30%. His shooting percentage from floater range is also down. And his FTA rate is down massively from 10 FTA's the last two seasons to 7 this year.

I honestly don't think he has another All-Star season in him. Let's be frank, he was barely an All-Star in even his best seasons. He has only made one All-NBA team, and it was 3rd team in a year when James Harden took himself out of contention because he quit the Houston Rockets. So basically, he has never really cracked the top 15, mostly hanging around in the top 20-30 range. If that was his peak, and he is no longer at his peak, he is probably 30th best player in the league at best, and probably a bit lower. Why should he be paid among the top 5 salaries? It doesn't make sense.

It would be one thing if he was a top 12ish player now, and we were merely accepting the fact that he would decline a bit over the length of his contract so in his final years he'd be overpaid. But this is a contract that massively overpays him from Day 1, even if you assume he regains peak form.

[Rafael122]

I'm not really sure why Chris Miller mentioned Murray unless he has some inside info that we're not aware about. It's disingenuous to throw his name in there knowing full well it might take 2-3 first round picks just to trade for him. He's probably on one of the better deals in the league, $16 mil per year or something like that with 2 years to go on the contract.

Brogdon is a much more realistic target. They need big guards, Brunson isn't going to cut it, neither is Tyus Jones.

[dckingsfan]

Add dumping Carey and Todd to the offseason plan.

[DCZards]

Paying Beal the super max is no doubt a bad idea. Hard to argue against that. But I believe his contract will still be moveable for the reasons cited by pcbothwel.

Some of those of bad stats from last season are somewhat explainable, especially the increased turnovers and the drop off in FT attempts. The first one was largely the result of Beal often being forced to play out of position at PG and the drop in FT attempts were, by and large, the result of the change in NBA rules as to what is a foul. That rule change impacted the play and FT attempts of other top players as well.

No doubt Beal’s 3pt shooting is a real issue. But I expect some of those other numbers to return closer to the norm of the previous 2-3 yrs.

And where does this come from, Nate? I haven’t heard anything about Beal making such a demand. Have you?

Sheppard hasn't traded the future for now yet, and I don't see him starting now. Frankly, if Beal is insisting on such a trade as a condition of resigning, I think Sheppard might secretly be happy to disappoint Beal so that Beal requests a sign-and-trade.