tank thread

[Goldbum]

I don't know why but I really like Marjon Beauchamp. Seems absurd with all our SG depth, but if he measures at 6'7" with his reported 7 foot wingspan he could be a better player than AJG.

[JRoy]

He’s got a great name.

Not sure about his game.

[Norm2953]

I do wonder what would have happened if Portland had played things strictly on the up and up.

Take a page out the 1985-86 Bulls who very famously allowed MJ to return with 10 games left in
the season instead of tanking. Team at the AS break was playing well with a 25-34 and might have
gotten to .500 with a really soft closing schedule and would get help from a returning Damian
Lillard. Presumably Little and Ingles would still be out but Watford, Ant, Nurk, Winslow, Hart and
perhaps Eric Bledsoe in addition to Dame would all be playing.

[Wizenheimer]

I do wonder what would have happened if Portland had played things strictly on the up and up.

Take a page out the 1985-86 Bulls who very famously allowed MJ to return with 10 games left in
the season instead of tanking. Team at the AS break was playing well with a 25-34 and might have
gotten to .500 with a really soft closing schedule and would get help from a returning Damian
Lillard. Presumably Little and Ingles would still be out but Watford, Ant, Nurk, Winslow, Hart and
perhaps Eric Bledsoe in addition to Dame would all be playing.

there would have been no reason for that. It would have just been rinse-repeat of the previous 9 years. The Blazers were 25-34 at the all-star break, but that was after that 4 game win streak aberration. Before that they were 21-34. CJ-RoC0-Powell-Nance were all gone and Little was out for the year. Those 5, according to winshares, accounted for 8 of Portland's 25 wins.

the best the Blazers could have done was catch the Clippers; and even that would have been nearly impossible because they would have had to go 17-5 (a 63 win pace). No chance at all of that. Portland would have almost certainly been the 9th or 10th seed. They would have had to win 2 play-in games. And then...LOL...they would have had the Suns as their 1st round matchup. Another sweep on the way. What joy! And to add to the joy, they would not have their draft pick, which just happens to be their best chance at a major roster upgrade

in other words, that hole they've been digging for 7 years would have just been dug deeper and the zipcode would have been in Wearedumbistan

[Norm2953]

It would be an exciting play in game however with the Pelicans vs Blazers with CJ vs Dame a marquee matchup

I do think the really soft closing schedule would have led to a 13-10 finish and the 9 seed and I'd think they'd
beat the Pelicans and lose to the LAC who now have Paul George and Norm Powell. Portland would get an
early look at the Dame/Ant back court and get a look to how all these new pieces would fit together which
would ease off season plans.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Tankathon says the odds of dropping to 7-8 are better than getting a top 4 pick. One big benefit Portland
would get is they could eliminate the Pelicans in the first play in game and lose to the Clippers, ensuring
themselves with two late lottery picks. Portland could then flip one of these picks to get Grant and use the
other pick to patch up roster weaknesses found after they got that early look.

[red_power]

Meanwhile Chicago Bulls fell off the cliff in the second half of the season and it seems like they are about to get smashed quickly in the first round.

It leaves me guessing how seriously Lavine would be attracted to the idea of teaming up his talents with Dame next year.

[Case2012]

Meanwhile Chicago Bulls fell off the cliff in the second half of the season and it seems like they are about to get smashed quickly in the first round.

It leaves me guessing how seriously Lavine would be attracted to the idea of teaming up his talents with Dame next year.

Stars take the check and ask for the trade later. No way is Levine leaving.

[Norm2953]

Portland has much bigger needs than pursuing Lavine for they haven't had the horses to compete
up front since LA left.

[Dame Lizard]

Portland has much bigger needs than pursuing Lavine for they haven't had the horses to compete
up front since LA left.

Agreed.

We don't need another good guard.

Any of the SF/PF/C positions, particularly SF/PF, is where we need to look to strengthen if we're trading a lottery pick.

[DusterBuster]

Still blows my mind Olshey gave up a first for Nance Jr. anyone still trying to justify that trade needs their head checked. Even worse, Nance was Olshey’s Plan B. His Plan A was Markkanen who’s been a complete bust for the Cavs.

I gave Olshey credit when it was due, but when that dude had ripped a bad one, it stunk up the room something fierce. His moves clearly got worse once Allen passed which makes me think at least having Paul’s opinion in the conversation polished the turds Neil would drop.

[Dame Lizard]

Still blows my mind Olshey gave up a first for Nance Jr. anyone still trying to justify that trade needs their head checked. Even worse, Nance was Olshey’s Plan B. His Plan A was Markkanen who’s been a complete bust for the Cavs.

I gave Olshey credit when it was due, but when that dude had ripped a bad one, it stunk up the room something fierce. His moves clearly got worse once Allen passed which makes me think at least having Paul’s opinion in the conversation polished the turds Neil would drop.

That's why I'm concerned about us mortgaging our future again to try and make a last ditch run with Dame.

We made the RoCo trade for 2 future firsts. RoCo was an elite role player at the time - that was a poor trade in hindsight.

We then made the Lance trade. Even injury aside, that looks desperate in hindsight.

Grant is better than the above two players were at the time (particularly Nance), however it's a similar concept, and the price (a lottery pick) isn't cheap, given he's expiring.

[Norm2953]

There does come a time when a team needs to accept what's in the best interest of the franchise
as opposed to their star player.

I actually don't mind trading a late lottery pick for Grant but he's not really a true PF but a combo
forward. He makes the team better but are they really even with Grant, equipped to battle with
Phoenix, Memphis, GSW and Dallas? Think about the LAC (if they ever get Kawhi back), NO (ditto
with Zion), Denver, Minnesota, Utah.

I do expect Portland will try hard to build a team around Dame. Only the Blazers know how Dame's
rehab is going. If he's back to where he was in 2019, perhaps there is a chance it might work. I just
hope they won't mortgage the future away if things are not going well with a rebuilt 2021/22 roster.

[DusterBuster]

Still blows my mind Olshey gave up a first for Nance Jr. anyone still trying to justify that trade needs their head checked. Even worse, Nance was Olshey’s Plan B. His Plan A was Markkanen who’s been a complete bust for the Cavs.

I gave Olshey credit when it was due, but when that dude had ripped a bad one, it stunk up the room something fierce. His moves clearly got worse once Allen passed which makes me think at least having Paul’s opinion in the conversation polished the turds Neil would drop.

That's why I'm concerned about us mortgaging our future again to try and make a last ditch run with Dame.

We made the RoCo trade for 2 future firsts. RoCo was an elite role player at the time - that was a poor trade in hindsight.

We then made the Lance trade. Even injury aside, that looks desperate in hindsight.

Grant is better than the above two players were at the time (particularly Nance), however it's a similar concept, and the price (a lottery pick) isn't cheap, given he's expiring.

I'm fine doing it if it's for a big-time+name player. Even a 37/38yo LeBron... sure, go for it. But what I don't want to see is more of (to borrow a terribly overused baseball analogy) is more base hits that use good assets do it. That's what annoyed me with Olshey the most. He gave away FRP's or good young potential players for 3rd/4th tier talent. If you're going to do that, go big or go home. Giving up a lottery pick for Grant is like giving up Trent Jr for Powell. Powell - like Grant and RoCo - was a perfectly solid NBA player, but when you start giving up players+assets that you could potentially package in a big deal for a star to get "solid" players... that's just a losing formula.

So yeah, I totally agree with your point. I'm fine mortgaging the future for one last shot with Dame, but it better be pairing Dame with another player of his caliber, more of these sub-all star level guys is not it.

[Dame Lizard]

I agree with both above comments Norm/Duster.

Assuming we get two lottery picks, I'm OK to trade the lower one for Grant or an equivalent.

I wouldn't want to make that trade if we only ended up with one pick.

And definitely agree that Olshey wasted assets with smaller trades. It's been discussed before on this forum that we could have made a good offer for an All Star had we paired the picks used for RoCo and Nance with CJ.

[Goldbum]

How great would it be if Norm and Roco get us that Pels pick? Poetic Justice hmmm...

[Norm2953]

There was an earlier thread about if Portland had a top 3 pick..

If Portland was able to trade that pick for Anthony Davis, I'd do it but I can't see trading a top 3 pick for
Lebron for he's going to be a short timer wherever he plays next season. Portland had to lose 21/23 games
to earn that higher pick. I'm not giving that away for one year of Lebron. Better to just draft one of
Holmgren, Smith or Banchero who will be a Blazer for five years on a rookie deal.

I might consider trading 6 + 12 for 3-4 if the right player at 3-4 was available.

[BlazersBroncos]

There was an earlier thread about if Portland had a top 3 pick..

If Portland was able to trade that pick for Anthony Davis, I'd do it but I can't see trading a top 3 pick for
Lebron for he's going to be a short timer wherever he plays next season. Portland had to lose 21/23 games
to earn that higher pick. I'm not giving that away for one year of Lebron. Better to just draft one of
Holmgren, Smith or Banchero who will be a Blazer for five years on a rookie deal.

I might consider trading 6 + 12 for 3-4 if the right player at 3-4 was available.

If Chet, Jabari or Paolo were available I would move 6/12 easily. Dont think any team considers that though.

[Case2012]

I would rather take the best players available in the draft and try to win with them next year for 2 reasons. If we are a winning team next year with a rookie/s in a key role that’s going to be more valuable than the pick itself. O
Of course you’re relying on your scouting to dept to find those players so you’re taking a big risk but I think there’s some players in the lottery that have all star potential. Smith, Murray and Mathurin have the that it factor IMO. Those are the kind of pieces that will bring back a superstar in a trade with a rebuilding team.

The second reason is, that they may turn out to be so good that you don’t WANT to trade them at all.

I think with a healthy Dame and our new core of role players, plus high upside rookies that can probably contribute right away we can be really competitive next year. It’s not like our championship window is next year or nothing. Maybe next year, is the year that we push all our chips in?

Dame/Ant/Dunn
Ant/Hart/ Johnson
Nas/ Winslow
Murray/Eason
Nurkic/ Eubanks/ Watford

That looks like a pretty good team to me. A contender, no, but I think you have some good pieces there including TPE’s for a big trade at the deadline or next year.

[Norm2953]

There was an earlier thread about if Portland had a top 3 pick..

If Portland was able to trade that pick for Anthony Davis, I'd do it but I can't see trading a top 3 pick for
Lebron for he's going to be a short timer wherever he plays next season. Portland had to lose 21/23 games
to earn that higher pick. I'm not giving that away for one year of Lebron. Better to just draft one of
Holmgren, Smith or Banchero who will be a Blazer for five years on a rookie deal.

I might consider trading 6 + 12 for 3-4 if the right player at 3-4 was available.

If Chet, Jabari or Paolo were available I would move 6/12 easily. Dont think any team considers that though.

If hoping Portland moves up to 4 for one of those guys will be there at 4 since Ivey is a top 3 pick. The problem will
be will the NBA allow Portland any luck in the lottery?

[DusterBuster]

There was an earlier thread about if Portland had a top 3 pick..

If Portland was able to trade that pick for Anthony Davis, I'd do it but I can't see trading a top 3 pick for
Lebron for he's going to be a short timer wherever he plays next season. Portland had to lose 21/23 games
to earn that higher pick. I'm not giving that away for one year of Lebron. Better to just draft one of
Holmgren, Smith or Banchero who will be a Blazer for five years on a rookie deal.

I might consider trading 6 + 12 for 3-4 if the right player at 3-4 was available.

If Chet, Jabari or Paolo were available I would move 6/12 easily. Dont think any team considers that though.

If hoping Portland moves up to 4 for one of those guys will be there at 4 since Ivey is a top 3 pick. The problem will
be will the NBA allow Portland any luck in the lottery?

I don’t believe much in the NBA punishes tanking teams by manipulating the lottery theory. It’s just random chance that people attribute meaning to.

But at this point, I don’t have much hope in the Blazers getting the Pels pick. Betting against a motivated and unleashed CJ is a bad bet. So if there is an NBA karma, CJ costing the Blazers and them dropping in the lottery would be the most expected outcome from the absolutely horrid show they put on to close out this season.

I’m basically operating under the “hope for the next but expect the worst” theory for the off season.