End of Season RAPTOR ratings

jonbob17 · Post #1 » by **jonbob17** » Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:20 pm

Always like to check in on some season long advance metrics once the season is in the books.

The overall RAPTOR numbers are not contingent upon playing time. WAR is consideration of total production on the season and is dependent on minutes. You would have to think that overall our guys are going to be dragged down on ON/OFF by the rest of the team...at least to a degree, as we were pretty awful, but RAPTOR doesn't weight heavily towards on/off, just a small fraction, so overall RAPTOR should be plenty meaningful.

VVagner just a brilliant rookie year.
WCJ exceeded my highest expectations.
Suggs - a lot to be excited about on the defensive side. Young point guards take some time, you would think since he was a dual athlete prep, and shared the ball at Gonzaga it might take him even longer on offense.

Those are some really encouraging numbers from Fultz. On both sides of the ball. Late season, maybe some questionable opposition, but never the less. He's been awful on offense and defense with advanced metrics in years past.

Ross with a stinker for the ages. It's really hard to put into words how terrible he was this year. On the other hand, we should be thanking him for our draft odds. I don't have anything to back up this pondering but I do wonder if this isn't one of the all-time worst seasons for a heavy minute rotation player still fairly close to prime years.

RJ, uhhh, i thought he was going to be a project, and that he might take the better part of his rookie contract, but yikes, statistically (and visually) not a whole lot to like. Have to wonder if they are going to pick up his 4th year option. I mean i guess so,

Really disappointed by Bamba's advanced defensive metrics, and really just his decline in defensive statistics overall given the additional playing time. Unfortunately i think his Magic tenure has run it's course, unless we just bring him back close to a minimum, and maybe(or probably) not even as a back up

MoW's On/OFF offense kind of surprised me too, and Chuma's too in a bad way.

Post #2 » by **Knightro** » Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:37 pm

Very interesting stuff on Fultz. Very interesting.

Last Guardian · Post #3 » by **Last Guardian** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:00 am

No surprises here. Fultz, Franz and WCJ are not perfect by any means but they are high quality players.

drsd · Post #4 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:51 pm

jonbob17 wrote:The overall RAPTOR numbers are not contingent upon playing time. WAR is consideration of total production on the season and is dependent on minutes.

By 538's RAPTOR and WAR, Jokic was almost twice better then 2nd best player. It is really difficult to fathom how a player can be so outstanding on both sides of the ball. Jordan might be the last player so equally dominate all over th court.

..

drsd · Post #5 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:53 pm

The very worst (eligible) player in the league's RAPTOR rankings is, RJ Hampton.

jonbob17 · Post #6 » by **jonbob17** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:49 pm

drsd wrote:The very worst (eligible) player in the league's RAPTOR rankings is, RJ Hampton.

That is sorted of players with at least a certain amount of minutes. RJ is 250th dead last. There are worse players that didn't get as many minutes.

Here is an interesting one. Of players with with at 1,400 minutes. RJ is last, of course, and TRoss is 2nd to last.

The one thing in Hampton's favor is that players that are usually worst in RAPTOR are very young SG/wing players. Last year (2020-21) Poku was dead last, not that he has completely turned it around.
For most of last year (2020-21) Anfernee Simons was last, until he got hot in the silly season. Other guys that were terrible last year: Anthony Edwards, Saddiq Bey, and Cole Anthony
The year before dead last Darius Garland, 2nd worst Anfernee Simons, Jordan Poole 5th worst.

All that said, I am plenty skeptical, and i am a fan of RJ, and would have probably been my pick at 15 in 2020

jonbob17 · Post #7 » by **jonbob17** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:55 pm

drsd wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:The overall RAPTOR numbers are not contingent upon playing time. WAR is consideration of total production on the season and is dependent on minutes.

By 538's RAPTOR and WAR, Jokic was almost twice better then 2nd best player. It is really difficult to fathom how a player can be so outstanding on both sides of the ball. Jordan might be the last player so equally dominate all over th court.

..

As good as Jokic was last year, he was even more dominant this year. I think the talk all year of Embiid or Curry for MVP, or more recently Giannis was just ridiculous. It was Jokic all year, and it wasn't really close.

Skin · Post #8 » by **Skin** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:33 pm

Seems to be aligned with my thoughts and eye test. Good to see the numbers backing it.

Fultz haters have any comments?

Skybox · Post #9 » by **Skybox** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:23 pm

Where do you get these? I'm curious about league leaders/names you would assume have high ratings in one end or the other (for context). Interesting data and good analysis, IMO.

drsd · Post #10 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 8:57 pm

Skybox wrote:Where do you get these? I'm curious about league leaders/names you would assume have high ratings in one end or the other (for context). Interesting data and good analysis, IMO.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

..

pepe1991 · Post #11 » by **pepe1991** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:21 am

Numbers without context mean nothing. Compare it to rest of nba.

in general RAPTOR data has lot of loose garbage in it. Top 30 list has like 1/3rd of players who are average role players.

Anyhow, nobody from Orlando cracked top 70 in overall RAPTOR ( minimum 1500 min).

drsd · Post #12 » by **drsd** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:17 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Anyhow, nobody from Orlando cracked top 70 in overall RAPTOR ( minimum 1500 min).

What RAPTOR graphs out for Orlando is that Magicians are more horrible on offense than bad on defense. Hard to disagree.

p.s. nice to see that RAPTOR has Russell Westbrook as as bad an offensive player as he is a bad defensive player.

..

pepe1991 · Post #13 » by **pepe1991** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:26 pm

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Anyhow, nobody from Orlando cracked top 70 in overall RAPTOR ( minimum 1500 min).

What RAPTOR graphs out for Orlando is that Magicians are more horrible on offense than bad on defense. Hard to disagree.

p.s. nice to see that RAPTOR has Russell Westbrook as as bad an offensive player as he is a bad defensive player.

..

This is how mediocrity looks like ( 1 win over .500 record) just to see how far Magic are from mediocrity.

Magic have very, very, very bad offense. Mostly because their tragic efficiency due shot selection and offensive load leaders being all sub 52% TS players.

yoyojw17 · Post #14 » by **yoyojw17** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:11 pm

Not sure how anyone can really knock statistics down against a team that was one of the youngest teams in the NBA and had the most missed games as well.

2 of our most important players were not available for either most or all of the season... no consistency was maintained and players continued to do their bests.

Now.... imagine what a season under their belts and more healthy and stable lineups may produce. Lineups where our best players get to play with one another and players like iggy and schofield are not get backup minutes. lol

There will be skepticism until we see JI back.... but the same way that Markelle was out and many wrote him off and were looking for a new PG.... JI could make a return next season as well that will be truly impactful. Writing someone off without validation would be a bad idea with such a young team that has this much untapped potential.

jonbob17 · Post #15 » by **jonbob17** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:15 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Numbers without context mean nothing. Compare it to rest of nba.

in general RAPTOR data has lot of loose garbage in it. Top 30 list has like 1/3rd of players who are average role players.

Anyhow, nobody from Orlando cracked top 70 in overall RAPTOR ( minimum 1500 min).

Maybe it penalizes and rewards for being very good on one side, and perhaps defense isn't exactly as important as offense. I don't see really any average role players. By definition that would be players around the 135-150th in the league (assuming 9-10man rotations).

Derrick White phenomenal guard defender (and rebounder)
Marcus Smart again one of the best defenders in the league, and actually had good efficiency this year.
Rozier - Had a really productive and efficient year

I am not saying that any of these guys are a top 30 player. But i think you could argue that any of them had a top 30 season this year when you consider injuries and general ineffectiveness of perennial top 30 players. You can't use these a definitive ranking of players in the league, but more as who had the most productive season this year.

RAPTOR attempts to quantify players production in the modern NBA. I am not sure there is a better measurement. Real Plus Minus is good too.

I agree that players on bad teams are negatively impacted by the bad teammates around them, but that is part of their on the court productivity. If a guy is jacking up a bunch of bad shots because who else is going to take them, it's a product of circumstance, but they are still bad shots.
ON/OFF statistics are probably more like to to penalize them, but outplaying your opponents and making your team better is part of the game. Again ON/OFF is just a small factor in the RAPTOR calculation.

pepe1991 · Post #16 » by **pepe1991** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:40 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Numbers without context mean nothing. Compare it to rest of nba.

in general RAPTOR data has lot of loose garbage in it. Top 30 list has like 1/3rd of players who are average role players.

Anyhow, nobody from Orlando cracked top 70 in overall RAPTOR ( minimum 1500 min).

Maybe it penalizes and rewards for being very good on one side, and perhaps defense isn't exactly as important as offense. I don't see really any average role players. By definition that would be players around the 135-150th in the league (assuming 9-10man rotations).

Derrick White phenomenal guard defender (and rebounder)
Marcus Smart again one of the best defenders in the league, and actually had good efficiency this year.
Rozier - Had a really productive and efficient year

I am not saying that any of these guys are a top 30 player. But i think you could argue that any of them had a top 30 season this year when you consider injuries and general ineffectiveness of perennial top 30 players. You can't use these a definitive ranking of players in the league, but more as who had the most productive season this year.

RAPTOR attempts to quantify players production in the modern NBA. I am not sure there is a better measurement. Real Plus Minus is good too.

I agree that players on bad teams are negatively impacted by the bad teammates around them, but that is part of their on the court productivity. If a guy is jacking up a bunch of bad shots because who else is going to take them, it's a product of circumstance, but they are still bad shots.
ON/OFF statistics are probably more like to to penalize them, but outplaying your opponents and making your team better is part of the game. Again ON/OFF is just a small factor in the RAPTOR calculation.

There are some issues with RPM in basketball and RPM is also heavily used in RAPTOR data. bigs and guards don't have same algorithm to determine defense, so some bit above average guard defender who isn't worthless on offense tends to be super overrated by most of aveliable advanced data.
On top of that team defens as concept is impossible to exclude from players so there is all kind of currupted data that goes into process of evaluation and drives home very qustionable numbers.

For instance DBPM makes Duncan Robinson better defender than GIannis , Durant or Draymoond Green. By big margin. So from start you know you are finshing in murky waters.

Raptor data puts bit more objective data than most of other cumulative numbers, but isn't be-all-do all- holy Grail of nba quality quantified.

When in top 4 nba players you have Gobert, due all respect to him, something is wrong .
When in top 20 you have Jrue Holiday, Alex Caruso, Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl, Imanuel Quickley and whatever is left from Horford... but your top 50 does not include Derozan, Ingram, McCulum, Anthony Davis nor Towns. Harden isn't even top 60, SIakam, Valenchunas, Wiggins hardly menaged to get into top 100... ehh... something is rotten

From time to time i visit their page ( have hyperlink on google crome :lol:

) but much like with RPM, net rating and other data, it's nice to see, over longer period of time there are conclusions to be drawn from ( if somebody sucks for yearas, by most data, he probably just sucks in reality) but that's about.
Still, imo, eFG% , TS%, net rating give you better insight of value than most of this full-nba-rosters- cumulative data.

JTG_92940618 · Post #17 » by **JTG_92940618** » Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:56 pm

This article about which all-in-one stats are best is interesting: https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/

They talk to 30 people some of whom work inside the NBA (Great!) and some who are media members (WHY?!).

One thing is for sure, there is no standout option. Personally, I think RAPTOR should be enough for us as it's easy to find and highly rated.

jezzerinho · Post #18 » by **jezzerinho** » Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:44 pm

JTG_92940618 wrote:This article about which all-in-one stats are best is interesting: https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/

They talk to 30 people some of whom work inside the NBA (Great!) and some who are media members (WHY?!).

One thing is for sure, there is no standout option. Personally, I think RAPTOR should be enough for us as it's easy to find and highly rated.

EPM seems to be highly regarded and is maybe a little simpler/more elegant in terms of base data.

EPM likes Wendell a lot and Franz is the highest rated rookie, 8 spots above Mobley and well ahead of the rest.