Toronto Blue Jays (2 - 1) @ New York Yankees (2 - 1) - April 11-14, 2022

[vaff87]

For me you gotta be above average tactically no matter how talented your team to win the bigger games ie. playoffs.

So far throughout his tenure he's proven to be average or just below.

I worry for close games which there will be a bunch as season goes along + playoffs if we get there (hopefully)

It's warrantred critisim for him, hopoing he can figure it out

He just gave you two examples of how this isn’t true.

that's not the norm dude. u gotta be able to manage If we wanted another gibby then they shoulda kept him.

Baseball is not a sport where you need some Pep Guardiola, Bill Belichick or Gregg Popovich. You simply need someone that makes logical decisions more often than not. We won back-to-back World Series with Cito Gaston, for crying out loud.

[WuTang_CMB]

He just gave you two examples of how this isn’t true.

that's not the norm dude. u gotta be able to manage If we wanted another gibby then they shoulda kept him.

Baseball is not a sport where you need some Pep Guardiola, Bill Belichick or Gregg Popovich. You simply need someone that makes logical decisions more often than not. We won back-to-back World Series with Cito Gaston, for crying out loud.

Lol you're not understanding. We need an above average manager on the tactical side, we are not asking for a Phil Jackson.

If you have world series aspirations, your manager still needs to be above average in tactical decisions to win you close ball games. Go up against Tampa with that attitude and it wont be good. Or go up against equal talent like the dodgers. Montoyo has shown thus far he cannot do this. He needs to clean that up this season.

[Schad]

the team wont win big if he continues with this
hoping this year is a different story

I think we all hope that. But it's also just much less of a big deal if he's choosing from a pool of five relievers or something, all of whom are only marginally better/worse than each other. Trevor Richards was the wrong option there, but he isn't a bad option. He wasn't a "Rafael Dolis in max leverage" option by any means. The difference between Trevor Richards and the right option (which was probably letting Yimi pitch the 8th) is, like, a run every nine or ten appearances or something, at most. And yeah, if that run comes in the wrong game that could be pretty important. Or it could not be, as it wasn't here.

You'd absolutely rather have a good manager than a bad one, no question about that. But bad managers win and good managers lose, because baseball is a series of statistical anomalies strung together into something that people try to form coherent narratives out of, much like the ancients taking the fact that their cow had diarrhea as an indication of the will of the gods.

[WuTang_CMB]

the team wont win big if he continues with this
hoping this year is a different story

I think we all hope that. But it's also just much less of a big deal if he's choosing from a pool of five relievers or something, all of whom are only marginally better/worse than each other. Trevor Richards was the wrong option there, but he isn't a bad option. He wasn't a "Rafael Dolis in max leverage" option by any means. The difference between Trevor Richards and the right option (which was probably letting Yimi pitch the 8th) is, like, a run every nine or ten appearances or something, at most. And yeah, if that run comes in the wrong game that could be pretty important. Or it could not be, as it wasn't here.

You'd absolutely rather have a good manager than a bad one, no question about that. But bad managers win and good managers lose, because baseball is a series of statistical anomalies strung together into something that people try to form coherent narratives out of, much like the ancients taking the fact that their cow had diarrhea as an indication of the will of the gods.

margins are thin in baseball. we are not just looking to win some games in the regular season. as injuries/struggles come about (and we are already seeing it now), montoyo has to navigate through that intelligently. easier said than done for any manager but that's what the good ones do, and this will get us to where we want to be - the playoffs... and he's gotta show it there where the games are even more important.

not to mention more pressure this season than last, bigger expectations, etc. so he's gotta prove it .. and hoping he can

[Brinbe]

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[C Court]

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[Schad]

margins are thin in baseball. we are not just looking to win some games in the regular season. as injuries/struggles come about (and we are already seeing it now), montoyo has to navigate through that intelligently. easier said than done for any manager but that's what the good ones do, and this will get us to where we want to be - the playoffs... and he's gotta show it there where the games are even more important.

not to mention more pressure this season than last, bigger expectations, etc. so he's gotta prove it .. and hoping he can

There's a lot of effect-becomes-cause in this though. People start to assume that managers are good because their teams did navigate the playoffs, when in reality they suck but a combination of good team and good fortune rendered it moot.

A few years ago, 538 analyzed the best and worst bullpen management by managers from 2000 - 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-savviest-and-crappiest-bullpen-managers/

Note the list of the worst ones. It includes Dusty Baker, who made the World Series last year. Ron Washington: two World Series appearances. Bob Melvin, long-time manager of the statistically-conscious Oakland A's, picked up to run the contending Padres this offseason. Tony La Russa, three-time Series winner and Hall of Famer. How is that possible? Because, per that article:

Perhaps surprisingly, we found that bullpen management — good or bad — doesn’t actually affect a team’s overall performance all that much. Certainly it’s not as important as, say, having good relievers to employ in the first place. A manager who’s bad at managing a bullpen (for example, Manny Acta) might be expected to win about 0.5 fewer games per season as a result of his bullpen-management problems than an average manager with the same ’pen, while a good one (such as Joe Girardi) might win 0.5 games more than average over the course of a season. The total effect of this skill has a range of perhaps one win per year.

If we assume (and it's not wrong to do so) that Charlie is on another tier altogether of badness, you're talking maaaaaybe a couple wins difference between him and a good manager on 'pen usage. Maybe throw in another couple wins for his management of the lineup. That's 4 Wins Below Good Manager. And that, again, can matter. Probably cost us a playoff spot last year. You don't want to be giving away wins at all if you can help it, and 4 wins a year would basically mean offsetting the difference between an All Star and a replacement-level player. That's really bad! But teams that are 4 wins worse than their opposition win in the playoffs all the time, because baseball is a high-variance sport and **** just happens.

[bluerap23]

margins are thin in baseball. we are not just looking to win some games in the regular season. as injuries/struggles come about (and we are already seeing it now), montoyo has to navigate through that intelligently. easier said than done for any manager but that's what the good ones do, and this will get us to where we want to be - the playoffs... and he's gotta show it there where the games are even more important.

not to mention more pressure this season than last, bigger expectations, etc. so he's gotta prove it .. and hoping he can

There's a lot of effect-becomes-cause in this though. People start to assume that managers are good because their teams did navigate the playoffs, when in reality they suck but a combination of good team and good fortune rendered it moot.

A few years ago, 538 analyzed the best and worst bullpen management by managers from 2000 - 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-savviest-and-crappiest-bullpen-managers/

Note the list of the worst ones. It includes Dusty Baker, who made the World Series last year. Ron Washington: two World Series appearances. Bob Melvin, long-time manager of the statistically-conscious Oakland A's, picked up to run the contending Padres this offseason. Tony La Russa, three-time Series winner and Hall of Famer. How is that possible? Because, per that article:

Perhaps surprisingly, we found that bullpen management — good or bad — doesn’t actually affect a team’s overall performance all that much. Certainly it’s not as important as, say, having good relievers to employ in the first place. A manager who’s bad at managing a bullpen (for example, Manny Acta) might be expected to win about 0.5 fewer games per season as a result of his bullpen-management problems than an average manager with the same ’pen, while a good one (such as Joe Girardi) might win 0.5 games more than average over the course of a season. The total effect of this skill has a range of perhaps one win per year.

If we assume (and it's not wrong to do so) that Charlie is on another tier altogether of badness, you're talking maaaaaybe a couple wins difference between him and a good manager on 'pen usage. Maybe throw in another couple wins for his management of the lineup. That's 4 Wins Below Good Manager. And that, again, can matter. Probably cost us a playoff spot last year. You don't want to be giving away wins at all if you can help it, and 4 wins a year would basically mean offsetting the difference between an All Star and a replacement-level player. That's really bad! But teams that are 4 wins worse than their opposition win in the playoffs all the time, because baseball is a high-variance sport and **** just happens.

That would be good news if Charlie was only bad at managing the bullpen. Unfortunately, many of the games he cost us last season had little to do with the pen.

[WuTang_CMB]

margins are thin in baseball. we are not just looking to win some games in the regular season. as injuries/struggles come about (and we are already seeing it now), montoyo has to navigate through that intelligently. easier said than done for any manager but that's what the good ones do, and this will get us to where we want to be - the playoffs... and he's gotta show it there where the games are even more important.

not to mention more pressure this season than last, bigger expectations, etc. so he's gotta prove it .. and hoping he can

There's a lot of effect-becomes-cause in this though. People start to assume that managers are good because their teams did navigate the playoffs, when in reality they suck but a combination of good team and good fortune rendered it moot.

A few years ago, 538 analyzed the best and worst bullpen management by managers from 2000 - 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-savviest-and-crappiest-bullpen-managers/

Note the list of the worst ones. It includes Dusty Baker, who made the World Series last year. Ron Washington: two World Series appearances. Bob Melvin, long-time manager of the statistically-conscious Oakland A's, picked up to run the contending Padres this offseason. Tony La Russa, three-time Series winner and Hall of Famer. How is that possible? Because, per that article:

Perhaps surprisingly, we found that bullpen management — good or bad — doesn’t actually affect a team’s overall performance all that much. Certainly it’s not as important as, say, having good relievers to employ in the first place. A manager who’s bad at managing a bullpen (for example, Manny Acta) might be expected to win about 0.5 fewer games per season as a result of his bullpen-management problems than an average manager with the same ’pen, while a good one (such as Joe Girardi) might win 0.5 games more than average over the course of a season. The total effect of this skill has a range of perhaps one win per year.

yes I read this. When you have talent it goes a long way and makes or breaks you in today's game. GM's have been taking over more of the coaching role in a way because the team is designed as is. Last year's bullpen and management of it were terrible and Charlie needs to clean that up. As as I said, we have world series aspirations, we can't be losing 2,3,4, games due to mismanagement. If bullpen is improved and Charlie can manage not to fk things up then the Jays have a chance in the 1 run games

[Vampirate]

We need to give Vlad his monster contract soon, if he doesn't get it here, he'll get it somewhere else.

[DelAbbot]

He doesn't need to be a good tactical manager in order for us to have a solid-to-good shot to win a title, he just needs to not be one of the worst tactical managers in modern baseball. The difference between the in-game effect of a 20th percentile manager and an 80th percentile is really limited. It's just the extreme outliers that matter to any great extent. Problem being that Charlie has, to date, been an extreme outlier, but the better the team (and in particular, the better the bullpen) the more difficult it becomes to **** things up to any substantive degree.

For me you gotta be above average tactically no matter how talented your team to win the bigger games ie. playoffs.

So far throughout his tenure he's proven to be average or just below.

I worry for close games which there will be a bunch as season goes along + playoffs if we get there (hopefully)

It's warrantred critisim for him, hopoing he can figure it out

He just gave you two examples of how this isn’t true.

btw, are we sure the in-game tactics are not controlled by Atkins and team upstairs? Montoyo is just a player-manager who is willing to bow to Atkin's sabermetrics-driven in-game commands

[vaff87]

For me you gotta be above average tactically no matter how talented your team to win the bigger games ie. playoffs.

So far throughout his tenure he's proven to be average or just below.

I worry for close games which there will be a bunch as season goes along + playoffs if we get there (hopefully)

It's warrantred critisim for him, hopoing he can figure it out

He just gave you two examples of how this isn’t true.

btw, are we sure the in-game tactics are not controlled by Atkins and team upstairs? Montoyo is just a player-manager who is willing to bow to Atkin's sabermetrics-driven in-game commands

Some of Charlie’s moves are the antithesis of analytics driven.

[Schad]

That would be good news if Charlie was only bad at managing the bullpen. Unfortunately, many of the games he cost us last season had little to do with the pen.

Sure, but again: the damage is bad, but bad in baseball isn't necessarily fatal. At the extreme outer bound, Charlie might be equivalent to the difference between 2021 Bo Bichette and 2021 Breyvic Valera being your starting shortstop. That's a big deal! But teams have injuries that result in them losing stars and playing seriously bad options in the playoffs pretty well every year. The Braves lost Acuna for the playoffs last season, and started a guy in his stead who hit .162/.244/.243 over 41 PAs in the NLCS/WS. They have rings now.

[Schad]

btw, are we sure the in-game tactics are not controlled by Atkins and team upstairs? Montoyo is just a player-manager who is willing to bow to Atkin's sabermetrics-driven in-game commands

You literally could not get any less sabermetrics-driven than Charlie's in-game decisions. That's the problem.

[SharoneWright]

btw, are we sure the in-game tactics are not controlled by Atkins and team upstairs? Montoyo is just a player-manager who is willing to bow to Atkin's sabermetrics-driven in-game commands

You literally could not get any less sabermetrics-driven than Charlie's in-game decisions. That's the problem.

And it's literally the purported reason we hired him! LOL

[SharoneWright]

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[s e n s i]

btw, are we sure the in-game tactics are not controlled by Atkins and team upstairs? Montoyo is just a player-manager who is willing to bow to Atkin's sabermetrics-driven in-game commands

yes, we are sure. this, for some unknown reason, was discussed ad-nauseum on this board last season. the tl;dr of it is: The Nerds are not making decisions for Charlie in real time.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

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hilarious

[Schad]

btw, are we sure the in-game tactics are not controlled by Atkins and team upstairs? Montoyo is just a player-manager who is willing to bow to Atkin's sabermetrics-driven in-game commands

yes, we are sure. this, for some unknown reason, was discussed ad-nauseum on this board last season. the tl;dr of it is: The Nerds are not making decisions for Charlie in real time.

And the best indication of this remains that our transactions display a thorough understanding of statistics, whereas our in-game decisions do not. If our Nerds had some truly strange concept of how you win baseball games, you would expect that to be reflected in the sorts of players we acquire. That's not the case; we tend to trade for and sign players who fit within the current accepted meta of what make baseball man good. Charlie, not so much.

[Cyrus]

I knew we would need Randal over these other scrubs we are playing... I'm not even going to view it as Randal for Talpia trade, it's Randal for the Lottery ticket Prospect as the deal!