Toronto Blue Jays (2 - 1) @ New York Yankees (2 - 1) - April 11-14, 2022

[vaff87]

I knew we would need Randal over these other scrubs we are playing... I'm not even going to view it as Randal for Talpia trade, it's Randal for the Lottery ticket Prospect as the deal!

Last year:

Tapia - 0.4 fWAR in 533 plate appearances
Grichuk - 0.4 fWAR in 545 plate appearances.

We’ll live.

[rarefind]

I really want to know how much cash went back to the Rockies. If we just paid them out for eating Grichuk's contract... We botched that one pretty good.

We are a team with WS aspirations. That was not a WS winning deal. WS teams have guys who have to battle to stay in the lineup who'd otherwise be locked in as everyday guys on the Rockies.

[Randle McMurphy]

margins are thin in baseball. we are not just looking to win some games in the regular season. as injuries/struggles come about (and we are already seeing it now), montoyo has to navigate through that intelligently. easier said than done for any manager but that's what the good ones do, and this will get us to where we want to be - the playoffs... and he's gotta show it there where the games are even more important.

not to mention more pressure this season than last, bigger expectations, etc. so he's gotta prove it .. and hoping he can

There's a lot of effect-becomes-cause in this though. People start to assume that managers are good because their teams did navigate the playoffs, when in reality they suck but a combination of good team and good fortune rendered it moot.

A few years ago, 538 analyzed the best and worst bullpen management by managers from 2000 - 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-savviest-and-crappiest-bullpen-managers/

Note the list of the worst ones. It includes Dusty Baker, who made the World Series last year. Ron Washington: two World Series appearances. Bob Melvin, long-time manager of the statistically-conscious Oakland A's, picked up to run the contending Padres this offseason. Tony La Russa, three-time Series winner and Hall of Famer. How is that possible? Because, per that article:

Perhaps surprisingly, we found that bullpen management — good or bad — doesn’t actually affect a team’s overall performance all that much. Certainly it’s not as important as, say, having good relievers to employ in the first place. A manager who’s bad at managing a bullpen (for example, Manny Acta) might be expected to win about 0.5 fewer games per season as a result of his bullpen-management problems than an average manager with the same ’pen, while a good one (such as Joe Girardi) might win 0.5 games more than average over the course of a season. The total effect of this skill has a range of perhaps one win per year.

If we assume (and it's not wrong to do so) that Charlie is on another tier altogether of badness, you're talking maaaaaybe a couple wins difference between him and a good manager on 'pen usage. Maybe throw in another couple wins for his management of the lineup. That's 4 Wins Below Good Manager. And that, again, can matter. Probably cost us a playoff spot last year. You don't want to be giving away wins at all if you can help it, and 4 wins a year would basically mean offsetting the difference between an All Star and a replacement-level player. That's really bad! But teams that are 4 wins worse than their opposition win in the playoffs all the time, because baseball is a high-variance sport and **** just happens.

That would be good news if Charlie was only bad at managing the bullpen. Unfortunately, many of the games he cost us last season had little to do with the pen.

Remember that time he pinch hit some guy named Valera to bunt over Alejandro Kirk with 2 runners on in the 9th of a tie game against a hard throwing lefty in a playoff race? Tapia's time is coming.

[SharoneWright]

I really want to know how much cash went back to the Rockies. If we just paid them out for eating Grichuk's contract... We botched that one pretty good.

We are a team with WS aspirations. That was not a WS winning deal. WS teams have guys who have to battle to stay in the lineup who'd otherwise be locked in as everyday guys on the Rockies.

Unless the plan is even better than winning a World Series. IE. Winning the World Series over many iterations. In that case, assuming the budget is not unlimited, shrewd payroll management becomes essential in order to retain or sign the players with the greatest long-term impact. (Might even offer a bit of short-term flexibility at this deadline). Grichuk's locked-in money was an impediment.

[Randle McMurphy]

I really want to know how much cash went back to the Rockies. If we just paid them out for eating Grichuk's contract... We botched that one pretty good.

We are a team with WS aspirations. That was not a WS winning deal. WS teams have guys who have to battle to stay in the lineup who'd otherwise be locked in as everyday guys on the Rockies.

Unless the plan is even better than winning a World Series. IE. Winning the World Series over many iterations. In that case, assuming the budget is not unlimited, shrewd payroll management becomes essential in order to retain or sign the players with the greatest long-term impact. (Might even offer a bit of short-term flexibility at this deadline). Grichuk's locked-in money was an impediment.

Yes, the only benefit to the Grichuk deal is that they've potentially freed up his money to spend on something else (either this year hopefully or down the road). That money hasn't been spent yet, though, and now we are in a situation where we're likely going to be missing a starting OF for a long while.

[SharoneWright]

I really want to know how much cash went back to the Rockies. If we just paid them out for eating Grichuk's contract... We botched that one pretty good.

We are a team with WS aspirations. That was not a WS winning deal. WS teams have guys who have to battle to stay in the lineup who'd otherwise be locked in as everyday guys on the Rockies.

Unless the plan is even better than winning a World Series. IE. Winning the World Series over many iterations. In that case, assuming the budget is not unlimited, shrewd payroll management becomes essential in order to retain or sign the players with the greatest long-term impact. (Might even offer a bit of short-term flexibility at this deadline). Grichuk's locked-in money was an impediment.

Yes, the only benefit to the Grichuk deal is that they've potentially freed up his money to spend on something else (either this year hopefully or down the road). That money hasn't been spent yet, though, and now we are in a situation where we're likely going to be missing a starting OF for a long while.

Just awful luck. You could argue against either trade on the merits, but we just happened to trade a very serviceable backup catcher and a very serviceable backup outfielder a couple of weeks before injuries hit both positions. I think we could’ve done better in either trade on the return as well, however the light return for Grichuk of course had to do with the money/prospect.

[Schad]

Yes, the only benefit to the Grichuk deal is that they've potentially freed up his money to spend on something else (either this year hopefully or down the road). That money hasn't been spent yet, though, and now we are in a situation where we're likely going to be missing a starting OF for a long while.

Definitely true, and I'll cringe every time Tapia comes to the plate, but we're also three years removed from Grichuk approximating a starting outfielder, either.

My issue at current isn't Tapia for Grichuk, it's that Tapia will play over Zimmer, who was demonstrably the best of the three last year (which doesn't make him good, merely adequate) despite playing less, and being held together with twine.

[Mehar]

I really want to know how much cash went back to the Rockies. If we just paid them out for eating Grichuk's contract... We botched that one pretty good.

We are a team with WS aspirations. That was not a WS winning deal. WS teams have guys who have to battle to stay in the lineup who'd otherwise be locked in as everyday guys on the Rockies.

We sent back 9.7 million to the Rockies. 5.383 million this year to pay Grichuk's 9.33 million salary, and 4.333 million next year. By paying Tapia 3.95 million, we did not save any money this year by dealing Grichuk. We will save close to 5 million next year, by not bringing back Tapia, since it is only a year one deal for him.

This was a contending year, so I was of the mindset we could have worried about the 2023 payroll next off-season and shipped Grichuk out then (also eaten some of his salary if need be). You can never have enough depth, especially in the OF when a guy like Grichuk can play all OF positions. There has to be more to this story, on why the organization made this move. Maybe they really liked that 19 year old minor league prospect Pinto the Rockies sent back also. Hopefully, Teoscar's injury is not very serious, since Grichuk would have been a big upgrade all year over Tapia especially defensively.

[SharoneWright]

^
The sticker shock for any extension signed by Bichette or Guerrero will be the total dollar value. But each year has it’s own spending cap. Obviously that’s going to have to go up over the next few years, but $5 million next year is not inconsequential to help get things aligned.

[fbalmeida]

One to remember for Vlad, at Yankee stadium.

Berrios's slider was cooking until he reached 70 pitches. That's a good sign he'll come around.

Kikuchi had a rough first outing. With Pearson eventually coming back and Stripling in the mix, I suspect the 5th SP spot is going to be up for grabs at some point.

[rarefind]

^
The sticker shock for any extension signed by Bichette or Guerrero will be the total dollar value. But each year has it’s own spending cap. Obviously that’s going to have to go up over the next few years, but $5 million next year is not inconsequential to help get things aligned.

I mean. How difficult would it have been to ship Grichuk out after the season and eat half his salary?

[Mehar]

^
The sticker shock for any extension signed by Bichette or Guerrero will be the total dollar value. But each year has it’s own spending cap. Obviously that’s going to have to go up over the next few years, but $5 million next year is not inconsequential to help get things aligned.

I mean. How difficult would it have been to ship Grichuk out after the season and eat half his salary?

Not difficult at all, since they will be paying 4.333 million of Grichuk's 9.333 million salary next year. They save no money by dealing Grichuk this year. I do not know a lot about the 19 year old prospect they got back, except that he is 5 foot 6 with good potential. However, maybe the organization really values him, since there have been some nice reviews about his game. The problem is in this contending year, you are keeping your fingers crossed that George Springer does not get hurt again also. Grichuk would have been an useful guy to have to play all OF positions if need be, and is a better bat than Tapia. I will be surprised if Tapia is still on the roster by July.

[Schad]

Not difficult at all, since they will be paying 4.333 million of Grichuk's 9.333 million salary next year. They save no money by dealing Grichuk this year. I do not know a lot about the 19 year old prospect they got back, except that he is 5 foot 6 with good potential. However, maybe the organization really values him, since there have been some nice reviews about his game. The problem is in this contending year, you are keeping your fingers crossed that George Springer does not get hurt again also. Grichuk would have been an useful guy to have to play all OF positions if need be, and is a better bat than Tapia. I will be surprised if Tapia is still on the roster by July.

There are 61 primary outfielders who received 1000+ PAs from 2019 - 2021. Of those, Tapia is dead last in fWAR. Grichuk is 59th.

There are 40 primary outfielders who received 700+ PAs in 2020 - 2021. Of those, Grichuk is 38th in fWAR; Tapia is 36th.

So, is Grichuk better than Tapia? Is Tapia better than Grichuk? The answer is that both have sucked in recent years and ideally neither should play much.

[polo007]

Cole on salute to Vlad Jr.: 'If you had a cap, you'd tip it, too' - TSN.ca

NEW YORK -- Already the face of the upstart Toronto Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looked the part of a true Maple Leaf on Wednesday night, too.

Guerrero shook off a bloody gash on his right ring finger to hit three home runs against the rival Yankees, including two off ace Gerrit Cole, in Toronto's 6-4 victory.

"Otherworldly hitting," New York manager Aaron Boone said of Guerrero. "One of the best hitters in the world."

The American League MVP runner-up homered off Cole in the first inning, had his hand accidentally spiked on a play at first base in the second, then hammered a line-drive homer off Cole in the third to put Toronto up 3-0. He doubled off Cole in the sixth -- prompting the pitcher to make a show of tipping his cap to the 23-year-old -- then launched a 443-foot leadoff homer against Jonathan Loaisiga in the eighth for a 5-3 lead.

"Did you see his night?" Cole said in his postgame availability when asked about the tip of the cap. "If you had a cap, you'd tip it, too."

It was the second three-homer game of Guerrero's career, matching a career high set last April 27 against Washington.

The Blue Jays have taken two of three from the Yankees with the series finale on Thursday. New York's new lineup has struggled offensively during this season-opening homestand, even drawing some boos from the Yankees faithful.

[xAIRNESSx]

Wonder why no getaway day today. I enjoy an afternoon ball game every now and then.

[Randle McMurphy]

Tapia batting 5th. This is the end for us.

[Ado05]

What a lineup by Montonyo tonight.

[Madvillainy2004]

Lmfao what in the blue hell is Charlie doing with this lineup? Are we punting this game? No Chapman with Teo injured? Tapia 5th?? Espinal still 8th. Cavan at 3rd? So many questions lmao

[Randle McMurphy]

This reminds me of one of those Sunday day game lineups Cito used to throw out there with half backups. Except we're 6 games into the season here.

[Madvillainy2004]

Tapia batting 5th. This is the end for us.

Maybe the Yankees catcher will interfere so he can get on base again. On a serious note praying Gausman has his A1 stuff tonight.